Latest from Jonah Keri on the Giants

[msgkings322]

The Elite

The best of the best … at least for now.

8. San Francisco Giants (8-5, +10, LW: 8)
7. Boston Red Sox (5-8, -7, LW: 6)
6. Washington Nationals (7-5, +10, LW: 2)
5. Atlanta Braves (8-4, +13, LW: 12)
4. Oakland A’s (8-4, +19, LW: 7)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (7-5, 0, LW: 4)
2. Detroit Tigers (6-4, +1, LW: 3)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (9-4, +13, LW: 1)

Madison Bumgarner’s weekend grand slam was just the second one hit by a Giants pitcher in the past 56 years. Of course, it’s fitting that the Giants are pulling off great feats, since this is an even-numbered year, and that means … World Series!

Though that theory might seem too facile on its face, think about everything that went wrong for the bottom of the Giants’ rotation last year, and all the opportunities those failures present for relative success this year. Ryan Vogelsong went from being one of the stingiest starters in the league in 2011 and 2012 to one of the worst last year. Barry Zito celebrated the final year of his $126 million contract by setting fire to any chances San Francisco might’ve had of making another playoff run. Throw in six disastrous starts for Guillermo Moscoso, Mike Kickham, and Eric Surkamp, and the Giants got 50 starts that yielded a 6.24 ERA, the worst mark for any National League team’s back of the rotation.

That’s why it’s so great to see Tim Hudson starting this season as well as he has. Hudson has averaged 7⅔ innings per start through his first three outings without issuing a single walk. He’s also produced a 54.5 percent ground ball rate that ranks 10th among qualified NL starters and proves particularly handy with one of the league’s best defensive shortstops, Brandon Crawford, manning the position for the Giants. Replacing a crappy pitcher like Zito with an average pitcher like Hudson can make as big a difference as replacing an average pitcher with a star. In a way, the Giants gave themselves an opportunity in 2014 by being as bad as they were in those 50 starts in 2013, and the difference between Zito last year and even the 38-year-old version of Hudson this year could amount to something like three more wins for the Giants right off the top. Even Vogelsong’s early struggles are a bit of a stealth blessing, since they might prompt Brian Sabean to make an aggressive move soon if Vogelsong can’t get batters out. Top pitching prospect Kyle Crick has huge strikeout potential and is now toiling at Double-A, and a trade for a capable fifth starter remains a possibility.

Of course, the Giants might simply mash their way back to contender status this year. The Rockies are the only NL team to score more runs in 2014, and San Francisco plays in one of the least friendly parks for hitters in the league, as opposed to the best. Mike Morse already qualifies as a huge power upgrade in left field, and Brandon Belt’s hot start suggests a potential power breakout of his own at age 26. Combine those encouraging signs with a defense that was airtight last year7 and won’t lose much this year other than downgrading from Gregor Blanco to Morse, and the Giants look like the kind of balanced team that could make noise in a weak NL wild-card field.

 

[BigDDude]

The Elite

The best of the best … at least for now.

8. San Francisco Giants (8-5, +10, LW: 8)
7. Boston Red Sox (5-8, -7, LW: 6)
6. Washington Nationals (7-5, +10, LW: 2)
5. Atlanta Braves (8-4, +13, LW: 12)
4. Oakland A’s (8-4, +19, LW: 7)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (7-5, 0, LW: 4)
2. Detroit Tigers (6-4, +1, LW: 3)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (9-4, +13, LW: 1)

Madison Bumgarner’s weekend grand slam was just the second one hit by a Giants pitcher in the past 56 years. Of course, it’s fitting that the Giants are pulling off great feats, since this is an even-numbered year, and that means … World Series!

Though that theory might seem too facile on its face, think about everything that went wrong for the bottom of the Giants’ rotation last year, and all the opportunities those failures present for relative success this year. Ryan Vogelsong went from being one of the stingiest starters in the league in 2011 and 2012 to one of the worst last year. Barry Zito celebrated the final year of his $126 million contract by setting fire to any chances San Francisco might’ve had of making another playoff run. Throw in six disastrous starts for Guillermo Moscoso, Mike Kickham, and Eric Surkamp, and the Giants got 50 starts that yielded a 6.24 ERA, the worst mark for any National League team’s back of the rotation.

That’s why it’s so great to see Tim Hudson starting this season as well as he has. Hudson has averaged 7⅔ innings per start through his first three outings without issuing a single walk. He’s also produced a 54.5 percent ground ball rate that ranks 10th among qualified NL starters and proves particularly handy with one of the league’s best defensive shortstops, Brandon Crawford, manning the position for the Giants. Replacing a crappy pitcher like Zito with an average pitcher like Hudson can make as big a difference as replacing an average pitcher with a star. In a way, the Giants gave themselves an opportunity in 2014 by being as bad as they were in those 50 starts in 2013, and the difference between Zito last year and even the 38-year-old version of Hudson this year could amount to something like three more wins for the Giants right off the top. Even Vogelsong’s early struggles are a bit of a stealth blessing, since they might prompt Brian Sabean to make an aggressive move soon if Vogelsong can’t get batters out. Top pitching prospect Kyle Crick has huge strikeout potential and is now toiling at Double-A, and a trade for a capable fifth starter remains a possibility.

Of course, the Giants might simply mash their way back to contender status this year. The Rockies are the only NL team to score more runs in 2014, and San Francisco plays in one of the least friendly parks for hitters in the league, as opposed to the best. Mike Morse already qualifies as a huge power upgrade in left field, and Brandon Belt’s hot start suggests a potential power breakout of his own at age 26. Combine those encouraging signs with a defense that was airtight last year7 and won’t lose much this year other than downgrading from Gregor Blanco to Morse, and the Giants look like the kind of balanced team that could make noise in a weak NL wild-card field.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Brewers deserve some love

 

[msgkings322]

Brewers deserve some love

Every year there's a team (or two) that comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs, maybe it's Milwaukee's turn. Still early, there's a lot of teams that start hot and fade as well.

Who else do you think could be the surprise playoff team? Milwaukee is for sure plausible, especially now. Colorado?

In the AL, would Toronto be a surprise? KC?

 

[calsnowskier]

Every year there's a team (or two) that comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs, maybe it's Milwaukee's turn. Still early, there's a lot of teams that start hot and fade as well.

Who else do you think could be the surprise playoff team? Milwaukee is for sure plausible, especially now. Colorado?

In the AL, would Toronto be a surprise? KC?

KC has been mentioned as "this year's surprise team" for about 3 years now. When does that wear off?

If Toronto can make a dent in the AL East, then they certainly deserve the moniker. Even though last year, a lot of people were expecting them to win the WS.

 

[msgkings322]

KC has been mentioned as "this year's surprise team" for about 3 years now. When does that wear off?

If Toronto can make a dent in the AL East, then they certainly deserve the moniker. Even though last year, a lot of people were expecting them to win the WS.

Agreed on both...curious your opinion on who the surprises will be

 

[calsnowskier]

I haven't really studied the other teams, so I will be speaking out of my ass, but that has never stopped me in the past


SD is better than we think they are. They probably will not be able to pass LA AND SF, but they might have enough to pass one of us. I do not think they will be a playoff team, though.

Houston and Miami should be much improved over last year, but that really isn't saying much.

Seattle has a chance to surprise, but like SD, I don't think they can over take the two powers in their division (Oakland, Texas).

I question the Brew-Crew's stamina. Too much garbage hovering around Braun to allow that clubhouse to stay together through 162+.

put a gun to my head, I guess I would have to say Seattle has the best chance to "come out of left field" and make some noise.

 

[msgkings322]

I haven't really studied the other teams, so I will be speaking out of my ass, but that has never stopped me in the past


SD is better than we think they are. They probably will not be able to pass LA AND SF, but they might have enough to pass one of us. I do not think they will be a playoff team, though.

Houston and Miami should be much improved over last year, but that really isn't saying much.

Seattle has a chance to surprise, but like SD, I don't think they can over take the two powers in their division (Oakland, Texas).

I question the Brew-Crew's stamina. Too much garbage hovering around Braun to allow that clubhouse to stay together through 162+.

put a gun to my head, I guess I would have to say Seattle has the best chance to "come out of left field" and make some noise.

We're all talking out our asses, it's a sports message board...

I too think SD is better, but I think Colorado is better still. Our division is a good one just like last year.

I'm not sure how much the clubhouse matters (re Braun), winning cures that easily. If their pitching is for real they will win games and the clubhouse will be a happy one.

Seattle has been a trendy pick among the 'experts' too, but after King Felix they don't have much in their rotation. Wouldn't surprise me though if they got a wildcard.

 

[calsnowskier]

We're all talking out our asses, it's a sports message board...

I too think SD is better, but I think Colorado is better still. Our division is a good one just like last year.

I'm not sure how much the clubhouse matters (re Braun), winning cures that easily. If their pitching is for real they will win games and the clubhouse will be a happy one.

Seattle has been a trendy pick among the 'experts' too, but after King Felix they don't have much in their rotation. Wouldn't surprise me though if they got a wildcard.

Sure, but what happens when they got 3-9 over 2 weeks? 10-17 over a month?

Winning buries the skirmishes, sure, but there are so many gams in MLB that there is going to be a bad stretch for every team, and the teams with cancer will not be able to recover and get back to the winning ways.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Hoping Timmy finds his stuff tonight, and Beckett doesn't. Important game for both teams, obviously, on several levels. Sandoval and Pence last 7 days OPS slightly better than the season. Hope the trend continues.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hoping Timmy finds his stuff tonight, and Beckett doesn't. Important game for both teams, obviously, on several levels. Sandoval and Pence last 7 days OPS slightly better than the season. Hope the trend continues.

Both are historically very streaky hitters who are capable of carrying the team single-handedly for a week at a time or so. The fact that we have weathered their cold-spell while winning 3 of 4 series' is a good sign.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Both are historically very streaky hitters who are capable of carrying the team single-handedly for a week at a time or so. The fact that we have weathered their cold-spell while winning 3 of 4 series' is a good sign.

When they start hitting, and Scoots returns to form, this could be something special. Six potentially very good hitters, plus Crawford and Scoots, who can hit a little, too.

 

[calsnowskier]

When they start hitting, and Scoots returns to form, this could be something special. Six potentially very good hitters, plus Crawford and Scoots, who can hit a little, too.

In the big picture, though, I do not like depending on offense. Pitching is the key to the game, and we have lots of question marks there this year. Hopefully 3 solid SPs will be enough (or hopefully Escobar and/or Crick graduates this year).

SF vs Texas and SF vs Detroit are textbook examples of offensive teams not being offensive teams against pitching-first teams.

 

[msgkings322]

In the big picture, though, I do not like depending on offense. Pitching is the key to the game, and we have lots of question marks there this year. Hopefully 3 solid SPs will be enough (or hopefully Escobar and/or Crick graduates this year).

SF vs Texas and SF vs Detroit are textbook examples of offensive teams not being offensive teams against pitching-first teams.

This is exactly correct. Good hitting can get you to the playoffs, but once there good pitching tends to dominate. It's common sense, the hitters spend all year building stats against teams' 4th and 5th starters, and bad team pitchers, in often 'meaningless' games. The playoffs are different.

This is why it's so important for Cain to come back to at least #2 quality. His last start was a welcome sight.

 

[calsnowskier]

This is exactly correct. Good hitting can get you to the playoffs, but once there good pitching tends to dominate. It's common sense, the hitters spend all year building stats against teams' 4th and 5th starters, and bad team pitchers, in often 'meaningless' games. The playoffs are different.

This is why it's so important for Cain to come back to at least #2 quality. His last start was a welcome sight.

I am not sure that Cain will ever be an "Ace" again. His tendency has always been as a fly-ball pitcher, and as he gets a bit older and his "stuff" begins to flatten just a bit, he will get bit by the HR more often. I think he will be a good 2/3 for long enough to make his contract acceptable, though. We just need Bum and Crick to be the top-top of the rotation over the next 4-5 years (maybe with a Flores or Mella or Escobar thrown in for good measure).

 

[tzill]

In the big picture, though, I do not like depending on offense. Pitching is the key to the game, and we have lots of question marks there this year. Hopefully 3 solid SPs will be enough (or hopefully Escobar and/or Crick graduates this year).

SF vs Texas and SF vs Detroit are textbook examples of offensive teams not being offensive teams against pitching-first teams.

Not Crick..he's 2015 at the earliest. Eskie is pretty close to ML ready.

 

[tzill]

When they start hitting, and Scoots returns to form, this could be something special. Six potentially very good hitters, plus Crawford and Scoots, who can hit a little, too.

I think we need to prepare ourselves that Scoots is Freddy Sanchez II. He may never be healthy.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think we need to prepare ourselves that Scoots is Freddy Sanchez II. He may never be healthy.

I am already fully in the camp of "He will never be healthy". I just don't want to move into the camp of "He will never play again", which is a possibility. Back issues can be a bitch.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not Crick..he's 2015 at the earliest. Eskie is pretty close to ML ready.

Oh, I agree. but it IS possible that he could arrive early. Remember, most of us thought Bum was not going to get his cuppo' until '11 at the earliest (especially after his "disastrous" 2009). Didn't exactly play out that way.