Ken Pom Ratings

[douggie]

The ACC has #2(Duke), #3(UVA), and #4(Louisville) behind Kentucky right now.

2015 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

 

[MI Nightmare]

I see NJIT is on the rise.

 

[douggie]

I see NJIT is on the rise.

 

[douggie]

Hey, New Jersey Tech is ranked #262

 

[tducey]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing.

 

[douggie]

The ratings change week to week. It will be interesting to see what emerges once conference play gets into full swing.

 

[douggie]

bump/

UVA moves to the top line.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Since you brought it up, I'll resurrect the Hattie Composite Index from the old CBS days. All of the Friday games haven't been updated on Sagarin and ESPN, but here are the current ratings from Sagarin, KenPom and ESPN's BPI all lumped together:

[B][SIZE="1"]
RANK	Team		W-L	Comp	  SOS		KP		SAG		BPI[/B]
1	Kentucky	18-0	0.9830	0.6481 (35)	0.9819 (2)	0.9836 (1)	0.9836 (1)
2	Virginia	18-0	0.9662	0.6412 (44)	0.9836 (1)	0.9376 (2)	0.9782 (2)
3	Gonzaga		19-1	0.9146	0.6336 (49)	0.9575 (3)	0.8479 (3)	0.9422 (3)
4	Wisconsin	17-2	0.9034	0.6271 (54)	0.9500 (5)	0.8363 (4)	0.9281 (4)
5	Arizona		17-2	0.8883	0.6603 (24)	0.9509 (4)	0.7991 (7)	0.9226 (5)
6	Duke		16-2	0.8835	0.6265 (55)	0.9299 (9)	0.8293 (5)	0.8943 (8)
7	North Carolina	15-4	0.8754	0.7222 (3)	0.9336 (7)	0.7901 (8)	0.9096 (6)
8	Utah		15-3	0.8748	0.6190 (64)	0.9444 (6)	0.7995 (6)	0.8867 (9)
9	Villanova	17-2	0.8669	0.6351 (47)	0.9334 (8)	0.7795 (9)	0.8954 (7)
10	Notre Dame	18-2	0.8526	0.5045 (188)	0.9118 (12)	0.7713 (10)	0.8813 (11)
11	Louisville	15-3	0.8490	0.6111 (72)	0.9106 (13)	0.7673 (11)	0.8758 (13)
12	Kansas		15-3	0.8484	0.7800 (1)	0.9039 (16)	0.7648 (12)	0.8835 (10)
13	Wichita St.	17-2	0.8476	0.6145 (68)	0.9253 (11)	0.7477 (16)	0.8802 (12)
14	West Virginia	15-3	0.8414	0.6116 (71)	0.9059 (15)	0.7526 (13)	0.8737 (14)
15	Oklahoma	12-6	0.8363	0.7203 (4)	0.9265 (10)	0.7402 (17)	0.8530 (18)
16	Texas		14-4	0.8340	0.6465 (39)	0.9103 (14)	0.7519 (15)	0.8475 (20)
17	Iowa St.	14-3	0.8303	0.6466 (38)	0.8932 (18)	0.7522 (14)	0.8519 (19)
18	VCU		15-3	0.8274	0.7096 (6)	0.8990 (17)	0.7266 (19)	0.8671 (15)
19	Ohio St.	15-5	0.8187	0.5794 (91)	0.8762 (25)	0.7295 (18)	0.8584 (16)
20	Baylor		14-4	0.8142	0.6763 (16)	0.8921 (19)	0.7260 (20)	0.8334 (24)
21	Maryland	17-3	0.8094	0.6413 (43)	0.8839 (21)	0.7151 (22)	0.8388 (22)
22	Northern Iowa	17-2	0.8013	0.5336 (143)	0.8802 (23)	0.6845 (30)	0.8541 (17)
23	Michigan St.	13-6	0.7987	0.6336 (49)	0.8740 (26)	0.7127 (23)	0.8181 (26)
24	Butler		14-6	0.7967	0.6925 (11)	0.8655 (29)	0.7169 (21)	0.8149 (27)
25	Georgetown	13-5	0.7963	0.7180 (5)	0.8659 (28)	0.6942 (25)	0.8399 (21)
[/SIZE]

Comp is the composite rating (geometric mean of the three other ratings)
Sagarin and BPI have been normalized to match KenPom's range. (data is adjusted so highest rated team will match highest rated team on KenPom's ratings, same for lowest, and the gaps between teams will be proportional to their original gaps)
SOS is the geometric mean of the 3 rating systems SOS. (rank is in parentheses)

Rating is completely meaningless but fun to talk about if you're into dorky stat stuff.

NJIT is #215

 

[douggie]

Ha! I forgot Hattie. Biggest Cards fan ever. Thanks Trolly.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Ha! I forgot Hattie. Biggest Cards fan ever. Thanks Trolly.

No prob.

The numbers are in from yesterday. I won't post the entire thing since there wasn't much movement.

Utah jumped ahead of UNC and Ohio St jumped ahead of VCU Everything else is unchanged.

And Hattie was quite the character. I think he still posts over there, but I haven't looked at the comments for a while.

 

[dcZONAfan]

How in the world is our SOS higher than the other top teams? Seems strange, we haven't had that great of a schedule

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

How in the world is our SOS higher than the other top teams? Seems strange, we haven't had that great of a schedule

FWIW, AZ's individual SOS numbers:

KP: #23
SAG: #26
BPI #43

It's as much about avoiding bad teams as it is playing really good ones.

I always hated SOS as a single stat anyway. Without actually looking at the schedule it doesn't really tell you much, and if you're looking at the schedule, then the SOS number isn't really necessary.

And unless a team is winless or undefeated, a single number doesn't really tell you anything. Show me an SOS against teams you beat, and an SOS against teams that beat you... that is some useful information.

 

[CatsTopPac]

FWIW, AZ's individual SOS numbers:

KP: #23
SAG: #26
BPI #43

It's as much about avoiding bad teams as it is playing really good ones.

I always hated SOS as a single stat anyway. Without actually looking at the schedule it doesn't really tell you much, and if you're looking at the schedule, then the SOS number isn't really necessary.

And unless a team is winless or undefeated, a single number doesn't really tell you anything. Show me an SOS against teams you beat, and an SOS against teams that beat you... that is some useful information.

That's more along the lines of what BPI calculates, right?

 

[jontaejones]

One blowout loss took Nova from AdjD I think 10 to like 33.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

That's more along the lines of what BPI calculates, right?

I'm not entirely sure how ESPN calculates SOS for the BPI. All three of the ratings I include are a bit of a mystery. Sagarin has discussed his methodology but not the formula. Pomeroy has released part of his formula, but not all of it. ESPN has discussed some of what they use to arrive at their rating but not how they actually get there.

One blowout loss took Nova from AdjD I think 10 to like 33.

I'm not sure entirely as I only have detailed data going back a few days, but I doubt one game (even a poor one) would make that big of a difference this far into the season. Allegedly Pomeroy weights more recent games higher, so it is possible.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Today's update:

[SIZE="1"][B]
RANK	Team		W-L	Comp		Comp_SOS	KenPom		Sagarin		BPI[/B]
1	Kentucky	19-0	0.9845		0.6462 (38)	0.9845 (1)	0.9845 (1)	0.9845 (1)
2	Virginia	19-0	0.9573		0.6319 (58)	0.9806 (2)	0.9219 (2)	0.9703 (2)
3	Gonzaga		20-1	0.9158		0.6108 (71)	0.9597 (3)	0.8478 (3)	0.9440 (3)
4	Wisconsin	18-2	0.9049		0.6365 (52)	0.9488 (6)	0.8381 (5)	0.9319 (4)
5	Arizona		18-2	0.8956		0.6579 (30)	0.9567 (4)	0.8096 (6)	0.9276 (5)
6	Duke		17-2	0.8926		0.6432 (42)	0.9354 (8)	0.8405 (4)	0.9046 (7)
7	Utah		16-3	0.8826		0.6153 (69)	0.9526 (5)	0.8058 (7)	0.8958 (9)
8	Villanova	18-2	0.8748		0.6300 (59)	0.9389 (7)	0.7893 (8)	0.9035 (8)
9	North Carolina	16-4	0.8708		0.7161 (5)	0.9262 (10)	0.7871 (9)	0.9057 (6)
10	Kansas		16-3	0.8636		0.7868 (1)	0.9202 (11)	0.7822 (10)	0.8947 (10)
11	Notre Dame	19-2	0.8576		0.5216 (156)	0.9170 (13)	0.7784 (11)	0.8838 (12)
12	Louisville	16-3	0.8573		0.6251 (60)	0.9163 (14)	0.7753 (12)	0.8870 (11)
13	Wichita St.	18-2	0.8517		0.5860 (88)	0.9285 (9)	0.7528 (13)	0.8838 (12)
14	West Virginia	16-3	0.8375		0.6207 (64)	0.8995 (16)	0.7463 (14)	0.8750 (14)
15	Ohio St.	16-5	0.8276		0.5912 (85)	0.8838 (20)	0.7404 (15)	0.8662 (15)
16	Baylor		15-4	0.8255		0.6873 (14)	0.9068 (15)	0.7348 (16)	0.8443 (19)
16	Oklahoma	12-7	0.8255		0.7355 (3)	0.9183 (12)	0.7303 (17)	0.8389 (20)
18	VCU		16-3	0.8137		0.6922 (12)	0.8871 (18)	0.7165 (21)	0.8476 (18)
19	Butler		15-6	0.8105		0.6941 (11)	0.8831 (22)	0.7303 (17)	0.8257 (25)
20	Texas		14-5	0.8102		0.6520 (31)	0.8889 (17)	0.7294 (19)	0.8202 (26)
21	Iowa St.	14-4	0.8073		0.6425 (45)	0.8697 (25)	0.7288 (20)	0.8301 (23)
22	Georgetown	14-5	0.8072		0.7270 (4)	0.8791 (23)	0.7041 (22)	0.8498 (17)
23	Northern Iowa	18-2	0.8035		0.5507 (114)	0.8864 (19)	0.6851 (28)	0.8542 (16)
24	Maryland	18-3	0.7930		0.6244 (62)	0.8612 (30)	0.6994 (23)	0.8279 (24)
24	Xavier		13-7	0.7930		0.6858 (15)	0.8712 (24)	0.6887 (26)	0.8312 (22)
[/SIZE]

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Today's update:

[SIZE="1"][B]
RANK	Team		W-L	Comp		Comp_SOS	KenPom		Sagarin		BPI[/B]
1	Kentucky	19-0	0.9845		0.6462 (38)	0.9845 (1)	0.9845 (1)	0.9845 (1)
2	Virginia	19-0	0.9573		0.6319 (58)	0.9806 (2)	0.9219 (2)	0.9703 (2)
3	Gonzaga		20-1	0.9158		0.6108 (71)	0.9597 (3)	0.8478 (3)	0.9440 (3)
4	Wisconsin	18-2	0.9049		0.6365 (52)	0.9488 (6)	0.8381 (5)	0.9319 (4)
5	Arizona		18-2	0.8956		0.6579 (30)	0.9567 (4)	0.8096 (6)	0.9276 (5)
6	Duke		17-2	0.8926		0.6432 (42)	0.9354 (8)	0.8405 (4)	0.9046 (7)
7	Utah		16-3	0.8826		0.6153 (69)	0.9526 (5)	0.8058 (7)	0.8958 (9)
8	Villanova	18-2	0.8748		0.6300 (59)	0.9389 (7)	0.7893 (8)	0.9035 (8)
9	North Carolina	16-4	0.8708		0.7161 (5)	0.9262 (10)	0.7871 (9)	0.9057 (6)
10	Kansas		16-3	0.8636		0.7868 (1)	0.9202 (11)	0.7822 (10)	0.8947 (10)
11	Notre Dame	19-2	0.8576		0.5216 (156)	0.9170 (13)	0.7784 (11)	0.8838 (12)
12	Louisville	16-3	0.8573		0.6251 (60)	0.9163 (14)	0.7753 (12)	0.8870 (11)
13	Wichita St.	18-2	0.8517		0.5860 (88)	0.9285 (9)	0.7528 (13)	0.8838 (12)
14	West Virginia	16-3	0.8375		0.6207 (64)	0.8995 (16)	0.7463 (14)	0.8750 (14)
15	Ohio St.	16-5	0.8276		0.5912 (85)	0.8838 (20)	0.7404 (15)	0.8662 (15)
16	Baylor		15-4	0.8255		0.6873 (14)	0.9068 (15)	0.7348 (16)	0.8443 (19)
16	Oklahoma	12-7	0.8255		0.7355 (3)	0.9183 (12)	0.7303 (17)	0.8389 (20)
18	VCU		16-3	0.8137		0.6922 (12)	0.8871 (18)	0.7165 (21)	0.8476 (18)
19	Butler		15-6	0.8105		0.6941 (11)	0.8831 (22)	0.7303 (17)	0.8257 (25)
20	Texas		14-5	0.8102		0.6520 (31)	0.8889 (17)	0.7294 (19)	0.8202 (26)
21	Iowa St.	14-4	0.8073		0.6425 (45)	0.8697 (25)	0.7288 (20)	0.8301 (23)
22	Georgetown	14-5	0.8072		0.7270 (4)	0.8791 (23)	0.7041 (22)	0.8498 (17)
23	Northern Iowa	18-2	0.8035		0.5507 (114)	0.8864 (19)	0.6851 (28)	0.8542 (16)
24	Maryland	18-3	0.7930		0.6244 (62)	0.8612 (30)	0.6994 (23)	0.8279 (24)
24	Xavier		13-7	0.7930		0.6858 (15)	0.8712 (24)	0.6887 (26)	0.8312 (22)
[/SIZE]

Is Arizona the only team to defeat two top 10 teams on this list? Too lazy to look it up.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Is Arizona the only team to defeat two top 10 teams on this list? Too lazy to look it up.

Kentucky beat North Carolina (9) and Kansas (10)

(they also have wins over Louisville (12) and Texas (20))