Keeper League Draft Prep...

[femurov]

12 teams, PPR, bonus points for long TDs, 1/30 return yards, keep 2 offensive players and 1 IDP with no draft pick penalties. We start QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, 1 OFlex (RB/WR/TE), K, Punter, and 7 IDPs (2 DL, 2 LBs, 2 DBs, and 1 DFlex). My keepers are Leveon Bell, Tyreek Hill and Luke Kuechly.

There are a lot of traded draft picks in this league and I made a lot of moves. So, my first pick is the 1st pick in the 3rd round. I then have 3.11, 4.2, and 4.6. I am without my 5th, but have 6.1, 6.2, and 6.6.

I've been shopping my pick at 3.1 for a possible trade down. It is possible that I can pick up a late 3 and early 4 for 3.1 and most likely 6.6, but I will try to push that down to maybe 8.2. Will most likely depend on who is on the board. If I do a deal like that, I am looking at 5 players in an 8 pick span on that 3/4 turn, which would be nice. Historically in this league, I have done very well finding gems in the 4th - 6th rounds, although that's not why I loaded up there.

So, I'm basically looking at guys with a redraft ADP in the late 4th through mid 6th range for those 1st 4 picks. Guys like Derrick Henry, Jay Ajayi, Alex Collins, Mark Ingram, Kenyon Drake at RB and maybe Golden Taint, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Corey Davis at WR. I don't see a TE or QB worth it falling to me there, so I have to be looking at RB and WR with all 4 of those picks, most likely, which I have no problem with doing.

With the 3 picks in the 6th, I am looking at grabbing a couple RBs and WRs who may slip through the cracks. Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen, Marquis Goodwin, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, maybe. I think if Stafford falls down that far, I will probably take him. If Evan Engram somehow makes it there, I jump on it, also. If not, maybe Kyle Rudolph. If neither, I try to get David Njoku later on. If I miss out on Stafford, I'm looking at probably getting 3 out of guys like Rivers, Ben, Ryan, Mariota, Goff, Jimmy G, Carr, Alex Smith.

I guess at this point, I have no choice but to sit back and wait for the draft to come to me and react according, which I feel is one of my strong suits in Fantasy Football. Just figured I would spit my gameplan out loud and see if you guys have something to add or subtract. I

I should also re-emphasize the fact that trading is very active in this league, especially when it comes to draft picks and especially on draft day. There are a few wild cards when it in this league that you can never plan for, whether it is making a huge reach or making a crazy trade. We are allowed to trade next year's picks now, so picking up an extra pick next year is not out of the question. I already have an extra 1st round pick for next year, so loading up there is an option. Then, I can turn around and trade one of those for a stud before our deadline. Or I can sell, depending on how my team looks. I feel like I will come out of this draft somewhat competitive. I should have a lot of depth, but not a whole lot of starpower outside of Bell and hopefully, Hill. There are 2 guys who are pretty loaded with good keepers and a lot of early picks. The guy who has DHop and Dalvin Cook has 3 picks in the 1st (3, 7 and 12) and the guy who has Michael Thomas and ODB has 4 picks in the 2nd (overall 13, 14, 17 and 24) and the #1 overall pick (most likely used on Barkley or David Johnson). Because of this, I am very hesitant to use that extra 1st next year to move into this year's draft.

 

[TKOSpikes]

That is a lot of ifs and buts....but I got wouldn't argue with your strategy. Seems you have lots of options, so like you said, see what happens.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

shit - i would be very hesitant to move up in this year's draft too

but I also think it would be very optimistic of you to think that 24 offensive players will be kept, and they you'll still have a shot at Henry Collins or Drake with 3.1

cause that's actually 5.1 after keepers - Royce Freeman territory???

I just feel like even with full PPR, most teams will gobble up those few remaining relevant RBs since you only HAVE to start 2 WRs

 

[femurov]

shit - i would be very hesitant to move up in this year's draft too

but I also think it would be very optimistic of you to think that 24 offensive players will be kept, and they you'll still have a shot at Henry Collins or Drake with 3.1

cause that's actually 5.1 after keepers - Royce Freeman territory???

I just feel like even with full PPR, most teams will gobble up those few remaining relevant RBs since you only HAVE to start 2 WRs

Freeman could be there, but I know the guy with the 4 2nds likes him, so I could see him going in the 2nd to him. Especially since he picks right before me at 24. He may have gone with Guice, but since he's out, his focus has turned to Royce as a rookie RB to put stock in.

There are a couple of guys who were kept who have ADPs lower than the 5th, so that will bump a couple guys down...

Hyde, Desean Watson, Brady, and Russell Wilson. I also think that both teams with the extra picks will go QB and TE at some point before I pick. Not set in stone, by any means, but it is very possible. Plus, with a couple of reaches that are bound to happen, hopefully there will be some guys who slip through the cracks that I can pounce on.

I'm still a bit torn on Mark Ingram. If he didn't get suspended, he may have been kept. He's a guy who can produce like a 1st rounder that will use up a bench spot for a few games, but could come back and produce well. I know he has ?s, but I figure the worst case scenario is that he just becomes a glorified handcuff to Kamara. The guy who has Kamara is a very active trader that believes firmly in handcuffs and won't hesitate to give up a draft pick next year to protect his keeper. It won't be a 1st or anything, but it could easily be a 5th or 6th, which is better than nothing and more than I could get for someone like Kerryon Johnson (if he underproduces out of the gate). I think I have to strongly consider him on that 3/4 turn if he makes it there. If not, someone better, or at least safer, falls. I know it's not usually a good idea to draft someone with the idea of trading him away, but I think this is a rare exception, given my situation.

Another guy who is intriguing to me is David Njoku. Our bench is only 6 guys (and we start 16), but I never draft any backup IDPs, so they are all used on offensive players. It's rare that I draft a backup TE, but I really think he could break out and could be a top 5 TE. Even if I do grab Engram or Rudolph earlier on, I may grab and stash Njoku for that reason.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Freeman could be there, but I know the guy with the 4 2nds likes him, so I could see him going in the 2nd to him. Especially since he picks right before me at 24. He may have gone with Guice, but since he's out, his focus has turned to Royce as a rookie RB to put stock in.

There are a couple of guys who were kept who have ADPs lower than the 5th, so that will bump a couple guys down...

Hyde, Desean Watson, Brady, and Russell Wilson. I also think that both teams with the extra picks will go QB and TE at some point before I pick. Not set in stone, by any means, but it is very possible. Plus, with a couple of reaches that are bound to happen, hopefully there will be some guys who slip through the cracks that I can pounce on.

I'm still a bit torn on Mark Ingram. If he didn't get suspended, he may have been kept. He's a guy who can produce like a 1st rounder that will use up a bench spot for a few games, but could come back and produce well. I know he has ?s, but I figure the worst case scenario is that he just becomes a glorified handcuff to Kamara. The guy who has Kamara is a very active trader that believes firmly in handcuffs and won't hesitate to give up a draft pick next year to protect his keeper. It won't be a 1st or anything, but it could easily be a 5th or 6th, which is better than nothing and more than I could get for someone like Kerryon Johnson (if he underproduces out of the gate). I think I have to strongly consider him on that 3/4 turn if he makes it there. If not, someone better, or at least safer, falls. I know it's not usually a good idea to draft someone with the idea of trading him away, but I think this is a rare exception, given my situation.

Another guy who is intriguing to me is David Njoku. Our bench is only 6 guys (and we start 16), but I never draft any backup IDPs, so they are all used on offensive players. It's rare that I draft a backup TE, but I really think he could break out and could be a top 5 TE. Even if I do grab Engram or Rudolph earlier on, I may grab and stash Njoku for that reason.

a couple owners having those big stockpiles will make this draft wild - should be a fun one to say the least!

 

[averagejoe]

I'm still a bit torn on Mark Ingram. If he didn't get suspended, he may have been kept. He's a guy who can produce like a 1st rounder that will use up a bench spot for a few games, but could come back and produce well.

Just food for thought: tlance brought up a good point worth sharing here. Willie Snead was suspended 2 games last year and basically never saw the field when he came back. Makes you wonder if Ingram faces a similar fate? Who knows what Peyton might be thinking.

 

[femurov]

Just food for thought: tlance brought up a good point worth sharing here. Willie Snead was suspended 2 games last year and basically never saw the field when he came back. Makes you wonder if Ingram faces a similar fate? Who knows what Peyton might be thinking.

True... but also if Kamara were to struggle with a full load or gets injured or something, Ingram may be have the old "featured back" label on him when he gets back. Or, at the very least, I could sell that point to someone and work out a trade. But, all of this is factoring into my thinking. That's part of the reason that I am so torn on it. Of course, he could go in the 1st round and I wouldn't need to worry about it at all anyway, so...

But we are 3 days away from the draft now, so that is the prime "overthinking" period every year.

 

[femurov]

a couple owners having those big stockpiles will make this draft wild - should be a fun one to say the least!

It always is a good time. One of my favorite days of the year. I love to just walk around the room and fuck with people between picks. Especially if they look like they are struggling with a decision. I will walk up and start talking trade with them with the only purpose being to waste their time on the clock and make them panic into a bad decision. It tends to work sometimes and I find it to be very entertaining when it does.

 

[femurov]

So yesterday was the big day. As I said, I was working a deal to move from 3.1 to 3.12 and 4.1. We did that deal, but I had to give up 6.6 in the deal instead of 8.2. I didn't really have much of a choice as I was on the clock when we finalized it and it was after he pulled out altogether. Had I stayed at 3.1, I was eyeing Alex Collins and Golden Tate. I fell back and was about to pick my 1st of 4 in a row, when I got an offer of Bobby Wagner and a 2nd next year for 3.11. I took that. He took Cam Newton, who I was probably not going to pick anyway. So, I only had 3 in a row. Collins was still there, so I grabbed him, Mark Ingram and Corey Davis. At 4.6, I took Michael Crabtree. So, I only had 2 picks in the 6th and before that, I got an offer of a 4th next year for one of those 6ths. I took that, so I was down to 1 pick in the 6th, which I used on Drew Brees who was still there.

All of the trading dropped me a bit, but picking up an extra 2nd and 4th next year to go along with my extra 1st next year, makes me very happy. Tight ends went fast and furious between my picks in the 4th and 6th. Not only did some guys I expected to go there, but were hoping they would fall go (Engram, Rudolph, Delanie), but the ones I thought I could get late if the other guys weren't there went as well (Njoku, Trey Burton).

This was the final result of my draft...


QB - Brees
RB - Bell
RB - Collins
WR - Tyreek Hill
WR - Corey Davis
Flex - Crabtree
TE - Clay
K - Bailey
P - Lachlan Edwards (Jets)
DL - Everson Griffin
DL - Leonard Williams
LB - Kuechly
LB - Wagner
DB - Karl Joseph
DB - Jamal Adams
DFlex - Jarrad Davis

Bench

RB Mark Ingram
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Adrian Peterson
WR Jamison Crowder
WR DJ Moore
RB Nick Chubb


I'm deep, which I knew I would be. Not as deep as I had hoped, but I feel like I will be competitive as long as Bell and Hill perform.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

i think you made out quite well considering all of the peripheral action in this one

I'm still avoiding AP, even if he falls - I'll just be wrong if he balls out again, won't be the first time I counted him out and he produced, although lately counting him out has been a good bet

 

[femurov]

i think you made out quite well considering all of the peripheral action in this one

I'm still avoiding AP, even if he falls - I'll just be wrong if he balls out again, won't be the first time I counted him out and he produced, although lately counting him out has been a good bet

I was going to avoid it, also, but I felt like I was weak at RB and I needed to swing for the fences. I could have gotten Crowell there, but he was the "safe" pick with not much upside. I should know early what I will get with AP and I won't keep him rostered long if it looks like the 3 man committee working.

 

[femurov]

I was heavily targeting Tarik Cohen and was about to take him, but forgot I had traded 6.6 and then ended up trading 6.2 so it kind of put me in panic mode a bit. The dude that took him said he likes Lynch. He also has Njoku, (as well as Trey Burton), so I was thinking of offering Lynch and Clay for Cohen and Njoku. What do you guys think of that deal?

 

[SteelersPride]

i personally and am not on the tarik cohen bandwagon

 

[eaglesnut]

Lynch will have more total yards than Cohen.

Feels like people are sleeping on him. He got his legs back the second half of the season after missing a year and has a solid Oline with a run oriented coach.

None of your backs catch the ball much though.

To me Cohen will only really breakout if the Bears are getting blown out weekly, but I expect them to mostly play close low scoring games where his weekly involvement will be unpredictable.

 

[eaglesnut]

Your roster looks like you were missing your top picks. If a couple of the backs hit though you could swing one for a better second wideout.

 

[eaglesnut]

Also not a fan of Brees anymore.

I think he's basically done at the top levels. Lack of touchdowns last year after throwing his arm off for years looks like a quick drop off to me. 2 or 1 TD games now. No longer 3 or 4.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Also not a fan of Brees anymore.

I think he's basically done at the top levels. Lack of touchdowns last year after throwing his arm off for years looks like a quick drop off to me. 2 or 1 TD games now. No longer 3 or 4.

Ingram suspension has Brees up a bit for me - just figure they'll pass more in the RZ those first 4 games, even if its just a dump off to kamara

but agree - he's at the bottom of my QB1s to start the year

 

[eaglesnut]

Ingram suspension has Brees up a bit for me - just figure they'll pass more in the RZ those first 4 games, even if its just a dump off to kamara

but agree - he's at the bottom of my QB1s to start the year

That's a good point.

If he has a big game early trade his ass, fem. The name could get you something.