Kansas City Chiefs Ongoing Thread

[Fountain City Blues]

Lest we forget the chiefs defense stunk last year as well

Well yeah, but the bar is a lot higher to be at the top of the AFC, imo.

Wouldn’t be surprised if the defense is still trending above last year’s by DVOA, even closer to mediocre than not.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

All I got now defensively is the Chiefs should just double and triple down on just trying to stop the pass at the expense of the run.

Start O’Daniel when he comes back?

Really weak to allow first down after first down on 3-5 yard pass attempts on non-DB’s. All this run D handwringing is ugh.

Still think the Chiefs get a bye by virtue of a weak AFC and the Chargers doing Chargers things- but they better stop dropping games at home to weaker teams...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Coming into today (before updates)

Chiefs Defense:

18th in DVOA, 21st in DAVE

26th last year

Pass D:

8th, 12th in 2018

Run D:

30th, 32nd in 2018


So... yeah, a lot of the complaints are pretty much amounting to the offense wobbling more, and a stiffer standard on multiple fronts, imo. Still really frustrating to be this bad against the run- it's just aggravating. A front of Clark, Jones, Nnadi/Ogbah, and Okafor should be pretty solid against the run, and it just hasn't been. Feels institutional at this point.

Sidenote: Ward has rebounded relatively nicely the past several weeks.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

On one hand, I'd be really excited to see this defense next year with a GOOD draft that focused on the defense and moves in FA to retain Jones and a CB, on the other hand, I have almost zero faith in this FO to actually do that correctly. This FO has repeatedly shown to have learned all the wrong lessons about Players>Picks, draft value, and trading up/down. They're really super fortunate that Hardman, Thornhill, (and I think Thompson) look to be solid projectable players to give the Chiefs a little flexibility to move some bloated player salaries like Watkins the heck out of here.

 

[Black Adam]

On one hand, I'd be really excited to see this defense next year with a GOOD draft that focused on the defense and moves in FA to retain Jones and a CB, on the other hand, I have almost zero faith in this FO to actually do that correctly. This FO has repeatedly shown to have learned all the wrong lessons about Players>Picks, draft value, and trading up/down. They're really super fortunate that Hardman, Thornhill, (and I think Thompson) look to be solid projectable players to give the Chiefs a little flexibility to move some bloated player salaries like Watkins the heck out of here.

#fireVeach

 

[Fountain City Blues]

One idea to help patch a hole: Sign Zach Brown

Run D isn't super valuable, but at this point you need to get any help you can at LB. Won't cost a pick like other options. I know the "but EPA" crowd likes to be shitty and pretend it is completely irrelevant, I often fall into that trap myself, but the number of 1st down runs for 5 and 4 yards where a LB is lost is so incredibly old. Teams still run the ball on 1st down! Most of them anyways- shut that down. Run D is a basic numbers game- and this organization is pushing 10 years+ of bad run defense just about now on loop.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

#fireVeach

He gets one more draft/FA before I start calling for it. If Hardman/Thornhill weren't solid I'd probably be calling for it now. Those two are trying their best to rehabilitate a really, really ugly 2018 draftclass where the best pick is a ... meh nosetackle?

He has an impressive list of highly questionable moves despite his short tenure.

 

[Clayton]

Chiefs special teams has really gone downhill this year

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Chiefs special teams has really gone downhill this year

Garbage group.

Butker/Colquitt can’t carry them forever. Toub owns the blocked FG as well, imo.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Death, taxes, and losing to inferior Titans teams.

Never good to be unlucky and good; but worse still to be bumbling and unlucky.

 

[Clayton]

Garbage group.

Butker/Colquitt can’t carry them forever. Toub owns the blocked FG as well, imo.

Yeah, I expect the Chiefs to give up a big run to Henry. I don't expect the special teams unit to get routinely outplayed.

The other big factor was Tannehill was willing to take the abuse and Mahomes wasn't. I get that Tannehill is built like a WR but I wouldn't be shocked if what he is doing is unsustainable.

 

[Black Adam]

Chiefs special teams has really gone downhill this year

could not believe not one but TWO critical gaffes off of them...

easily the most maddening loss of the season...

 

[BigKen]

Still think the Chiefs get a bye by virtue of a weak AFC and the Chargers doing Chargers things- but they better stop dropping games at home to weaker teams...

The Chiefs will need a magic wand to get a bye. Patriots have lost one, Ravens have lost two, Bills and Texans three, Chiefs are tied with the Colts, Raiders and Steelers with four. You beat the Ravens, but lost to the Colts and Texans. The last six games have two serious speed bumps because your two toughest games are away at New England and Chicago. The remainder isn't 100% but two against the Chargers and one each against the Raiders and Broncos could be a gift. Division games are never easy and your division opponents would like nothing more than to keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs altogether.

As far as firing coaches, They instruct and guide. Players are responsible for performance on the field.

 

[Black Adam]

The Chiefs will need a magic wand to get a bye. Patriots have lost one, Ravens have lost two, Bills and Texans three, Chiefs are tied with the Colts, Raiders and Steelers with four. You beat the Ravens, but lost to the Colts and Texans. The last six games have two serious speed bumps because your two toughest games are away at New England and Chicago. The remainder isn't 100% but two against the Chargers and one each against the Raiders and Broncos could be a gift. Division games are never easy and your division opponents would like nothing more than to keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs altogether.

As far as firing coaches, They instruct and guide. Players are responsible for performance on the field.

meh, i've never said anything about firing coaches...

now GM's? that's another matter...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

At this point a bye is probably not in the picture unless the Chiefs win out. Talented enough to do that, but AGS losses (hello Colts and Titans) and the Pats on the road probably dictate that is unlikely.

The Division is still very muchso in the Chiefs' hands though; the Raiders don't scare me at all, especially at home. They're a knockoff version of the Chiefs, essentially.

Ogbah having a torn pec hurts as he was pretty great as a rotational piece. Overall, on defense, we're stuck in a situation where it is probably average, mediocre, and uninspiring. That's better than last year, but you're still gonna have 30+ dropped on you on occasion and Mahomes can only do so much.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

meh, i've never said anything about firing coaches...

now GM's? that's another matter...

Toub can definitely be put on the hot seat if we're going on 20 games or so of awful special teams outside of the punter/kicker. That FG block, even if you think it was offsides, was not an accident, and only could happen with an extremely predictable snapcount; not with that kind of jump.

Hardman has some unreal bad decisionmaking for a rookie. Winchester has been a bad LS for a while, imo.

There's very little to be positive about with the ST's outside of fast returners (???) and the kicker/punter.

 

[Clayton]

I don't know about firing anybody but the Titans game was really about making plays. If your defender is gifted an Interception then your defender needs to make the interception. If your RB fumbles the ball then someone really needs to tackle the other player.

The Chiefs just flat out didn't make the plays. The reality is that the Chargers and Raiders games are 2x as important. Even the New England game is borderline meaningless if the Chiefs beat the Chargers and Raiders.

Tannehill isnt going to be running straight into Safeties all year and if he is then he'll get injured again. The Chiefs just met a team that wanted it more.

edit - Moose might be on to something about the predictable snap count, though. Obviously a team needs to fix that.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

We're kind of in a weird possibility where the Chiefs could finish in the top 3 in DVOA, but end up 10-6. I think there was a Seahawks team a few years ago (in fact they were #1 in DVOA) that did that and ended up losing to the Panthers on the road that eventually lost in the SB.

Don't think this team is mediocre at all, but banked W-L's matter at the end of the day, sometimes there is no tomorrow.

The WC's in the AFC look pathetically weak, especially the Bills, so playing a WC game is probably not cataclysmically bad, but AGS losses have finality in the playoffs, unlike the regular season.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Regarding Veach: I think he gets a pass for this year more than not; the defense is better. Probably something in the vicinity of average, Titans game hot takes withstanding. Yes, his first draft is awful and his only moves worth spit on the net were getting Fuller and Ward. This defense wasn't going to be a 1 year fix from 2017. Not much he can do about a team not going 13-3 or 12-4; it's very difficult to achieve those records even if you're an elite team.

Juan Thornhill and Mathieu have generally made a big difference in the secondary. Breeland is a good buy-low, even if unspectacular. Fenton has some positives as a slot CB. Really the big if is if Saunders develops any further and can add some giddy-up in rushing the passer. A 2nd guy that can really blow up the game from the interior would do this defense wonders against the pass, imo. Veach's 3rd draft should be telling, imo. This last draft has largely rehabilitated him after a legitimately awful looking draft for now.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Operating on the assumption that rollover cap-space is used to extend Mahomes and retain Chris Jones:

Needs:

CB opposite Ward
EDGE opposite Clark
LB, self explanatory
DL, self explanatory
Potentially a slot CB, maybe a day 2 guy or early day 3.
I-OL, self explanatory
TE2


Cut/Trade:

Watkins, not worth the hassle if it gets in the way of extending other more essential players like Jones. Hardman and Pringle replace Watkins and Robinson, respectively.

Sorensen should long since be redundant with O'Daniel on the roster, but... reasons.