Is Pete Carroll the right man for the job

[flyerhawk]

Pretty good article on the The Athletic by Ben Baldwin.

Is Pete Carroll the right coach for this version of the...

I know that there is a paywall for the article so I'll post some relevant parts. IMO, any serious sports fan should have an Athletic subscription. It's what ESPN used to be.

First Baldwin lists out the bad arguments about whether to keep him.

Let’s briefly get some of the bad arguments out of the way before getting to the more serious discussion. This isn’t to say that all arguments in favor of retaining Carroll are bad — as we’ll get to, they aren’t — but these particular ones are.

The Seahawks haven’t ever seen this kind of success before. They also didn’t have Russell Wilson. And being bad in the past isn’t a good argument regarding what to do in the present. Next.

There are no other options out there. There are always choices. Just to name two, Eric Bieniemy and Greg Roman’s names circulated during this year’s coaching hiring process and it was somewhat surprising that neither landed a job. There’s no guarantee that they’d be better than Carroll, but qualified candidates exist.

Coaching changes are risky. It’s sports. Everything is risky, and nothing is guaranteed. But what’s the downside? Not competing for championships? That’s already what’s happening.

They’ll be worse when he’s gone. As noted above, nothing is certain. And while it is possible that the team would be worse — Wilson is getting older and Seattle probably won’t ever get as lucky in one-score games as the Seahawks did in 2019 — it’s not a guarantee.

He won a Super Bowl. He did! But Wilson isn’t on a rookie contract anymore and will carry a cap hit of $31 million next year. Being able to win with a team loaded with rookie-deal talent isn’t quite the same as building around a franchise quarterback who is paid as such. The question is whether Carroll is the right coach for this version of the Seahawks, not the 2013 one.

I'm generally against change for change's sake but I'm really much more willing to listen to arguments right now. So I think the above is all valid.

He gives several arguments for keeping Pete, which we all already know. And he gives several arguments for moving on from Pete. But to me these are the 2 biggies..

Going back to not maximizing Wilson, Seattle’s investment at low-value positions has left the team barren at others. Letting Russell Okung walk after 2015 left Wilson playing behind replacement-level left tackles until the team traded for Duane Brown in 2017. Prioritizing run blocking over pass blocking has resulted in Wilson playing behind dismal pass protection for most of his career, including one that ranked fifth-worst in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate in 2019. Only spending one of their first four draft picks on receiving options following the retirement of Doug Baldwin meant that Wilson was throwing to Malik Turner with the season on the line. Replacing Jimmy Graham with Ed Dickson hasn’t worked out, and Graham himself played a role in knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And finally, after dismissing Darrell Bevell, the Seahawks declined the opportunity to hire an offensive coordinator with an innovative approach and proven track record of success and instead chose Brian Schottenheimer.

The second cost imposed by Carroll’s philosophy is how the Seahawks approach in-game decision-making. Again, this has been covered extensively, but this results in throwing away too many plays on unproductive run plays, especially early in games, making bad decisions on fourth downs, poor clock management, putting misplaced trust in the defense, and playing base defense at a rate that surpassed every other team by a substantial margin. According to PFF’s Eric Eager, after accounting for the talent on the roster as measured by PFF’s Wins Above Replacement measure, Seattle’s coaching staff has been about middle of the pack in terms of getting the most out of its players on both offense and defense. The end result of this is the Seahawks relying on Wilson to dig them out of holes.

Pete's focus on running the ball has come at a cost in relation to the passing game. We have one of the best QBs in football and he is forced to throw to guys like Malik Turner and Jaron Brown. Now hopefully Metcalf will be the game changer we all think he can be and that can change this team around. But regardless we need more skill at skill positions. Collier may turn out to be legit but a run focused DE is rarely worth a 1st round pick these days.

But the bigger issue, IMO, is Carroll's philosophy. When we had a dominant defense, we could rely on heavy running and clutch throws by Russ. We don't have a dominant defense anymore. In fact we have the opposite. And yet our offensive philosophy is essentially the same. I am sick to death of the 1 yard gain on 2nd and 10. I am sick to death of the 53 yard field goal attempt on 4th and 2. It frustrates me to no end that we have to fall behind before they let Russ cook. And it frustrates me even more than Pete can't understand WHY we wait until we are behind to let Russ cook.

We have one of the most accurate deep ball throwers in the NFL. How bout throwing a deep ball on 1st down to start the game on a single read play? How bout letting Russ scramble for a couple of gains in the 1st quarter rather than waiting until we are behind? How bout a RPO or two early in the game?

Pete is going to be the coach in 2020, barring something remarkable happening. But hopefully the media will relentlessly pound into his brain that he has an exceptional talent behind center and winning games by 20 is better than winning games by 4.

 

[MrS]

When we change coaches it has to be a big name, not some risky young OC. I wouldnt mind nabbing one of the great college coaches like dabo swinney.

 

[Anointed One]

I've been feeling the same way as well the last year and a half... If RW wasn't our HC, would Pete still be our HC? Who knows what our record would have been the past 4 seasons without RW... Glad we didn't have to find out... I feel like the strategy Pete is hanging on to isn't as relevant anymore... It would make more sense if our defense was top notch but we've been back pedaling fast the past 3 seasons on defense...

Seems like Pete and John have been riding the RW Express the past 3-4 years because they haven't been drafting well over that time... That's what's hurting us right now... Outside Metcalf, we haven't really hit on any elite players the past 4 years or so, which has really hurt the depth of the team...

I feel like the team will honor Pete's contract through 2021 and then we'll see the team mutual part ways... Just a feeling...

 

[SeattleCoug]

I'd be surprised if Peter coaches past 2021 as well. I do think its fair to assume we have probably peaked under him meaning 10ish wins is probably what we can expect unless things change

 

[SeattleCoug]

If RW wasn't our HC, would Pete still be our HC? .

No way to know for sure but my hunch is he would have been gone 5 years ago if that was the case

 

[Wolverine830872]

Have any of the players complained about Carrol? I know there used to be some beef that the coaching staff babied Russ more than it should have, but other than that (and contact issues) I can't think of anything negative. It's a novel idea to think about other options, but if we switch things up when we seem to beat expectations every year, I don't think there is any way to book Carrol.

What good coach would even want to replace Carrol after last year? The fanbase would expect nothing but perfection.

 

[flyerhawk]

Have any of the players complained about Carrol? I know there used to be some beef that the coaching staff babied Russ more than it should have, but other than that (and contact issues) I can't think of anything negative. It's a novel idea to think about other options, but if we switch things up when we seem to beat expectations every year, I don't think there is any way to book Carrol.

What good coach would even want to replace Carrol after last year? The fanbase would expect nothing but perfection.

All the malcontents are gone. Sherman, Baldwin, Bennett, Avril to some degree.

In fairness to Pete, he had to completely rebuild the team in part because guys like Sherm and Bennett were creating problems in the locker room.

 

[Wolverine830872]

All the malcontents are gone. Sherman, Baldwin, Bennett, Avril to some degree.

In fairness to Pete, he had to completely rebuild the team in part because guys like Sherm and Bennett were creating problems in the locker room.

yeah, while Carrol's game philosophy can be frustrating, I think he has pretty much etched his name into the desk and deserves a lot of credit.

 

[flyerhawk]

I'd be surprised if Peter coaches past 2021 as well. I do think its fair to assume we have probably peaked under him meaning 10ish wins is probably what we can expect unless things change

I dunno about that. I think what we need is a couple of players to break out. If Metcalf breaks out next year and someone like Blair or Green on defense, all of the sudden our whole team looks very different.

 

[Screamin12th]

I dunno about that. I think what we need is a couple of players to break out. If Metcalf breaks out next year and someone like Blair or Green on defense, all of the sudden our whole team looks very different.

I have high hopes for Blair, he adds a little speed to the D and likes to hit. I think the Hawks had him sit so much is because his college weight is fine for college to play his style but you do that in the NFL at his weight and you are toast. I think they are trying to bulk him up some. Blair flashed last season there is something there. Green well shoot he has flashed a couple seasons and still has not "broke out" all though he did lead the team in sacks this season with 4 but is 4 sacks good? well i guess on this team it's the best ( Ouch ). Reed i want to talk about might have been a flash in the pan but the whole Defensive front just collapsed this year so was it him or was this just the worst front we have seen in a long time but i don't understand how that can be from one that showed a little promise before. Was Clark that important? Maybe so. When Bennett left and Avril hung it up the front 7 didn't look to bad in games that season, there was hope there and now omg. I mean what do we do, the team was so bad at getting to the passer that everyone was ad libbing leaving rushing lanes open, RUNNING INTO each other! lol it was bad.

Lot of people Liked Diggs but he is not a true FS and is not fast enough to roam centerfield like how the Hawks play it. He ran a 4.56 40, thats just not what you need at FS! This is the main reason Detroit was trying to make him more like a nickle he is to good to not be on the field but his size and speed really hurt him when playing Safety, he just doesn't cover the ground you need and you see it as he is always just a step or two away from making big plays. His Ball skills are very good his coverage is solid but he is just out matched in size and speed. Hawks need to find that 4.43 or faster guy to roam Centerfield. Remember Diggs 4.56 40 was on a track, in shorts and a T-shirt and is slower than Wilson.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I dunno about that. I think what we need is a couple of players to break out. If Metcalf breaks out next year and someone like Blair or Green on defense, all of the sudden our whole team looks very different.

That sure would help. Seahawks also need to hit better in the draft then they had of late. However the NFL is set up to make it harder to sustain success.
To put this in perspective lets look at the division winner this year. The 49ers.
Their draft position last 5 years has been (on the left) Seahawks on the right
#2 / 29
#9 / 27
#3 and #31 / 26 (traded down)
#7 and #28 / 31
#17 / 31 ( traded down)

Record per year:
4-12 / 10-6
6-10 / 9-7
2-14 / 10-5-1
5-11 / 10-6
8-8 / 12-4

Needless to say along with the 49ers poor record and great draft position they been able to amass lots of cap space.

The Seahawks first year they stripped down the team and had pick #6 and #14 and drafted Russell Okung and Earl Thomas. It's just a lot easier to build with great draft position every round. 49ers had a top ten pick 4 years straight. Last year the 49ers were able to acquire Dee Ford while the Seahawks had to make some hard choices and trade away their best pass rusher in Clark. Success has its cost.

That being said, since the Seahawks didn't want to repeat stripping the team down and do a rebuild and instead opted for restocking instead ( after the second SB ), they need to be better with the draft position they have. Otherwise they are looking at being a fringe playoff team year after year. The next draft is going to be a cross road. Either they hit and get some gems ( along with some of the young players on the roster developing) this draft and take another step forward or.....they remain a 9-7 10-6 type of team and the discontent will continue with their fans.

So to repeat myself sustain success is difficult in the NFL by design. The one exception being the Patriots. However I'd like to point out their drafts haven't been great during their run, rather they took a hard nose approach with players and either traded them away or cut them loose as money and/or performance became a issue. Feel the Seahawks have been slow to do the same. Most likely should have traded away some of their big named players after 2014 and then restocked. Yes I'm talking about Sherman, Thomas, Bennett and Avery to name a few. Holding onto these players helped in the win lost record for a bit, but cost in rebuilding a SB roster again.



I do think the Seahawks have done OK considering the route they took, but need some impact players again. Hoping this draft is going to be a real plus for the Seahawks because they need it to be.

 

[JMR]

Interesting question, and he's probably already been here 2x what the avg HC tenure is in the NFL.

The defense clearly has to improve in order for this team to compete for a SB in the next year or 2. But given how good Russell, Lockett, and Carson are now plus how good DK, Penny & Dissly may become, I am not sure how much better the D would need to be. Would middle of the pack do it? Do they have to be top 10? I don't know the answer. If SF takes home the big prize this year, there's going to be a lot of, "See, defense wins championships" going around. But SF also has a top 10 offense to complement that D. In fact, here are the other teams with top 10 defenses that made the playoffs this year: NE, Buffalo, Balt, Philly. All 1 and done. The Saints were 11th, and they also didn't win a game in the post-season.

PC said after the GB loss that the feeling about the team was similar to 2012 after the loss to Atlanta. Of course there's been lots of disagreement about that because of how the talent appears to be distributed on this team vs that one (particularly on defense), and I think that's fair. However, I also see a lot of upside with many of the younger players on this team. Defensively: Collier, Green, Barton, Griffin, and Blair is the young group that will probably determine how much this defense improves next year. Hopefully Clowney & Reed are back, but them plus Bobby, Diggs, KJ (if he's back), Kendricks, etc. are known quantities. We have to get more from the players with untapped potential to make a jump in the rankings.

Whether PC is the still the right coach here....after the game there were 2 things that made me think he could be considering stepping down. First was how emotional he got when someone asked him to talk about Russell's play this season and in the loss to GB. Hadn't seen a reaction like that from him before. It was almost like at that very moment he made a realization or had the thought he coached RW in a game for the last time. And then the other was when he made the 2012 comparison and referred to the team as "this team" instead of "we" or us. Maybe it was me making too much of it, but at that moment I thought he was behaving as if he wasn't coming back.

He'll be gone at some point though, and hopefully we get another great one to come in behind him. This is an extremely attractive HC gig for several reasons we would all name.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

flyerhawk that article was interesting and made some good points, but I sure disagree with plenty of their points. So point by point:

The Seahawks haven’t ever seen this kind of success before. They also didn’t have Russell Wilson. And being bad in the past isn’t a good argument regarding what to do in the present. Next.

Ok but Pete and John were the ones that took the risk and drafted him. Got give them the credit for that.

There are no other options out there. There are always choices. Just to name two, Eric Bieniemy and Greg Roman’s names circulated during this year’s coaching hiring process and it was somewhat surprising that neither landed a job. There’s no guarantee that they’d be better than Carroll, but qualified candidates exist.

Sure ever year they exist, majority disappoint upon getting hired. This is a fail argument being made and not even common sense.


Coaching changes are risky. It’s sports. Everything is risky, and nothing is guaranteed. But what’s the downside? Not competing for championships? That’s already what’s happening.

Downside is turning into the Browns or Bucs where competing for any thing beyond top draft pick is beyond them.


They’ll be worse when he’s gone. As noted above, nothing is certain. And while it is possible that the team would be worse — Wilson is getting older and Seattle probably won’t ever get as lucky in one-score games as the Seahawks did in 2019 — it’s not a guarantee.


IMO it's close to a guarantee the Seahawks will slide to the basement upon Pete leaving. Maybe that just me, but it brings to mind the Cowboys firing Jimmy Johnson. Sure for a very brief time they were able to make do with the team Johnson put together, but we all know what happened after that.


He won a Super Bowl. He did! But Wilson isn’t on a rookie contract anymore and will carry a cap hit of $31 million next year. Being able to win with a team loaded with rookie-deal talent isn’t quite the same as building around a franchise quarterback who is paid as such. The question is whether Carroll is the right coach for this version of the Seahawks, not the 2013 one.

To the red bolded.....no shit. Paying QBs huge salaries is just a fact of life in the NFL. Many of them haven't won a Superbowl and still make that money, some like Wentz haven't been healthy enough to be in the playoffs and still got that money. Guessing his point being Pete is good if he has tons of cap space and early draft picks, but isn't good if he doesn't have these advantages? Every team has better chances to stock a roster with huge cap space and top ten draft picks and they should do better then when they are tight in cap space and picking near the end of draft rounds. His point is sort of retarded, Pete done better then most while having these disadvantages.

Going back to not maximizing Wilson, Seattle’s investment at low-value positions has left the team barren at others. Letting Russell Okung walk after 2015 left Wilson playing behind replacement-level left tackles until the team traded for Duane Brown in 2017. Prioritizing run blocking over pass blocking has resulted in Wilson playing behind dismal pass protection for most of his career, including one that ranked fifth-worst in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate in 2019. Only spending one of their first four draft picks on receiving options following the retirement of Doug Baldwin meant that Wilson was throwing to Malik Turner with the season on the line. Replacing Jimmy Graham with Ed Dickson hasn’t worked out, and Graham himself played a role in knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And finally, after dismissing Darrell Bevell, the Seahawks declined the opportunity to hire an offensive coordinator with an innovative approach and proven track record of success and instead chose Brian Schottenheimer.

I'll agree with what is in red and I'll agree in what is in blue. What is in green is like lying , Seahawks have a nice pair of WRs with Lockett and Metcalf.

All I can do for what's in purple is give him a face palm.

For what is in black I say this. Lots of folks feel running the ball is outdated and doesn't work. Here the list of top ten rushing teams in the league.



7 of the ten were in the playoffs. It still works and always will. Coaching matters a lot, but doesn't trump talent. Once you get that talent two things come to mind.
1) hard to keep the talent on your roster as everyone wants the big money and there is a cap.

2) talent can erode quickly even if you resigned said talent.

Pete and John have been far from perfect and have done bone head things I'd rather not list, but make no mistake they are good. The challenge is to accumulate talent while in a disadvantage draft wise and cap wise. We shall see how that goes, as it said in the article there are no guarantees. Doubt Pete coaches much longer given his age and all. I'm all for riding him until then.

 

[flyerhawk]

@HaroldSeattle

You wrote a lot there so it was a little tough to quote so Ill just make some general responses.

His point about the excuses are that none of them are valid excuses for not moving on from Pete. I tend to agree with that. That doesn't mean we should move on from Pete. It simply means that we shouldn't rationalize why we can't.

It Pete were to retire tomorrow it is HIGHLY unlikely that the team would be in the basement in the foreseeable future. We would still have one of the best QBs in football. That alone gets us 9 or so wins a season.

I think there is an argument to be made that our record flattered to deceive us as to the quality of the team. The Seahawks could have easily have been a 9 win team.

To me that speaks to a problem with Pete's philosophy. Playing tight until you are forced to play loose is just not the best way to play. I'm not saying that we have to convert to some wide open offense. But consider the following scenarios.

2nd down and 9 mid way through the 1st quarter.
3rd down and 1 mid way through the 2nd quarter.

Overwhelmingly, Pete chooses to run the ball in those situations. And in most cases, it fails. How many times did we go for it on 3rd and 1 in the 1st half and fail and punt the ball away? Teams know what he is going to do. When you have the 2005 Seahawks OL you don't care that they know. You challenge the other team to beat your Hall of Fame LT and LG. When you have an average, at best, OL that has shown that it is not great in those situations, you do them no favors by running it or throwing short every time in those situations.

I don't have a problem a run focused mentality. But I do have a problem with playing it safe in the vast majority of situations.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

@flyerhawk

What Pete did is just the other side of the coin of coaches ( some who are considered good coaches) throwing three straight passes ( and failing to complete them) when they desperately need to just run off as much time as possible to win the game in the closing minutes. Just bad situational decisions. So yes I agree Pete was being pig headed about trying to run the ball given the status of the RB corp. Hopefully in the future the RB corp doesn't get decimated to the degree it did this season and if it does hope Pete handles it differently.

As for the record of the Seahawks, yeah the record is better then the talent would indicate. So yeah they had plenty go right to end up with that record.

I feel the only ones rationalizing are those that want to talk about firing Pete. So I'll just agree to disagree on that point.

Think Pete retires when his contract is up after 2021. Think he's earned the right to get through that contract. Plenty of time after that to hire and fire a bunch of wanna be head coaches going forward at that point. Lord knows we have had a lot of experience with that.

 

[Uhsplit]

My vote...keep Pete.

 

[flyerhawk]

@flyerhawk

What Pete did is just the other side of the coin of coaches ( some who are considered good coaches) throwing three straight passes ( and failing to complete them) when they desperately need to just run off as much time as possible to win the game in the closing minutes. Just bad situational decisions. So yes I agree Pete was being pig headed about trying to run the ball given the status of the RB corp. Hopefully in the future the RB corp doesn't get decimated to the degree it did this season and if it does hope Pete handles it differently.

As for the record of the Seahawks, yeah the record is better then the talent would indicate. So yeah they had plenty go right to end up with that record.

I feel the only ones rationalizing are those that want to talk about firing Pete. So I'll just agree to disagree on that point.

Think Pete retires when his contract is up after 2021. Think he's earned the right to get through that contract. Plenty of time after that to hire and fire a bunch of wanna be head coaches going forward at that point. Lord knows we have had a lot of experience with that.

To be clear I neither demand or expect that Pete is going to leave until he wants to leave.

But there are some things that I find pretty frustrating with his philosophy.

 

[Anointed One]

@flyerhawk
Think Pete retires when his contract is up after 2021. Think he's earned the right to get through that contract. Plenty of time after that to hire and fire a bunch of wanna be head coaches going forward at that point. Lord knows we have had a lot of experience with that.

Agree... I think he retires as well after 2021... And I'm perfectly fine letting him coach in his last year of his contract even if we are 6-10 or 7-9 this coming season... I feel we owe that to him...

 

[MrS]

We need to bring in robert saleh before another team scoops him up. i guarantee he will be a head coach somewhere after next season.

 

[Jikkle]

Pete is a good coach but he's too limited offensively and that's a big enough flaw that keeps tripping up the Seahawks in the end.

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying they should drop back and have Wilson let it rip 50 times a game and there is nothing wrong with wanting a strong running game but too often Wilson is the "In case of emergency use this" option instead of being a bigger focal point of the offense from the get go.

Wilson is a top 5 and some would say top 3 QB in the league and to me if you have that kind of guy on your team there is no reason to haven't at least been to one or more NFC Conference games or Super Bowls since the last one in 2014. And even though they've been to the playoffs every year except one since then their really isn't a good win against a quality team in that span.

I wouldn't go so far as to fire Pete yet but if I was a Seahawks fan I'd be demanding more than what he's produced in recent years.