Is D'Andre Swift's fantasy production sustainable?

[Robotech]

I own him in a couple leagues. It feels like he gets 90% of his production in the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter? Can I continue to start him confidently? The Lions barely score. They are 0-6. Do you think it's possible that they limit the workload of their young promising players since they aren't going anywhere this season?

 

[femurov]

Valid question. I noticed the same thing with ARob last season, but that was different since he isn't a young and upcoming RB. I think Detroit has lost some close games this season, so it's not like Swift is relying on junk points.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I own him in a couple leagues. It feels like he gets 90% of his production in the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter? Can I continue to start him confidently? The Lions barely score. They are 0-6. Do you think it's possible that they limit the workload of their young promising players since they aren't going anywhere this season?

i dont see why not... he is a receiving back!!! if he doesnt get 5 catches per game, then its a bad game for him... so just with that, his floor is extremely safe...

also, the lions might suck.... but they are very strong at offensive line... so, again, there is no reason for his value to go down other than injury... he may be a little more injury receptive than the average starting back, but he is extremely safe when he plays...

his only problem, is that because the lions do suck, his ceiling gets capped, because they are not going to average more than 20 points per game, which says that the team itself will not score more than 40 TDs...

 

[Robotech]

i dont see why not... he is a receiving back!!! if he doesnt get 5 catches per game, then its a bad game for him... so just with that, his floor is extremely safe...

also, the lions might suck.... but they are very strong at offensive line... so, again, there is no reason for his value to go down other than injury... he may be a little more injury receptive than the average starting back, but he is extremely safe when he plays...

his only problem, is that because the lions do suck, his ceiling gets capped, because they are not going to average more than 20 points per game, which says that the team itself will not score more than 40 TDs...

Do you think the Lions will get Swift more involved in the first 3.5 quarters moving forward?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Do you think the Lions will get Swift more involved in the first 3.5 quarters moving forward?

who cares?? his role doesnt change in any gamescript, when they play worse defenses, he may actually do something before garbage time...

I think this whole garbage time question about him is just a feeling and not true...

Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Ctch% Y/Tgt Quarter 1st Qtr 13 67 5.2 0 4 6 4 18 4.5 0 1 66.7% 3.0 2nd Qtr 27 91 3.4 0 5 6 5 21 4.2 0 0 83.3% 3.5 3rd Qtr 11 19 1.7 1 2 8 6 89 14.8 1 3 75.0% 11.1 4th Qtr 14 37 2.6 2 2 22 19 167 8.8 0 9 86.4% 7.6 1st Half 40 158 4.0 0 9 12 9 39 4.3 0 1 75.0% 3.3 2nd Half 25 56 2.2 3 4 30 25 256 10.2 1 12 83.3% 8.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

well, that copy and paste did not come out good

lets try it again

Split	Value	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Ctch%	Y/Tgt
Quarter	1st Qtr	13	67	5.2	0	4	6	4	18	4.5	0	1	66.7%	3.0
	2nd Qtr	27	91	3.4	0	5	6	5	21	4.2	0	0	83.3%	3.5
	3rd Qtr	11	19	1.7	1	2	8	6	89	14.8	1	3	75.0%	11.1
	4th Qtr	14	37	2.6	2	2	22	19	167	8.8	0	9	86.4%	7.6
	1st Half	40	158	4.0	0	9	12	9	39	4.3	0	1	75.0%	3.3
	2nd Half	25	56	2.2	3	4	30	25	256	10.2	1	12	83.3%	8.5

 

[TKOSpikes]

I own him in a couple leagues. It feels like he gets 90% of his production in the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter? Can I continue to start him confidently? The Lions barely score. They are 0-6. Do you think it's possible that they limit the workload of their young promising players since they aren't going anywhere this season?

Depends who you’d bench him for.

And you can always trade him. I’d be more concerned with his constant minor injuries.

 

[Robotech]

Depends who you’d bench him for.

And you can always trade him. I’d be more concerned with his constant minor injuries.

With so many teams on bye this week, I have to start Swift, but moving forward, I could start Hubbard at RB until CMC is back iinstead of using Hubbard as a FLEX. My two starting RB's would be Ekeler and Hubbard, and then I could start Toney or Jeudy at FLEX when health permits.

 

[broncosmitty]

Goff does not look downfield, Swift will continue to get targets.


He’s not the lead back, Williams is, but Swift going to continue to produce in PPR.


Decker should be back this week, run game will improve if he stays on the field.

 

[Robotech]

Goff does not look downfield, Swift will continue to get targets.


He’s not the lead back, Williams is, but Swift going to continue to produce in PPR.


Decker should be back this week, run game will improve if he stays on the field.

Now that I've thought about it some more, maybe Swift really does have a reliable formula for fantasy success. The Lions fall behind. They have to throw, and then late in the game, the defense will back off and protect against deep balls, leaving open the passes to Swift.

 

[broncosmitty]

Now that I've thought about it some more, maybe Swift really does have a reliable formula for fantasy success. The Lions fall behind. They have to throw, and then late in the game, the defense will back off and protect against deep balls, leaving open the passes to Swift.

They’ve lost by 2 twice, 8 once, ten once and two ass beatings. Really hasn’t been a lot of garbage time.


Swifts fewest targets and receptions were both in a blowout loss to GB. And his three highest reception totals are from games that were close. (The two last second FG losses which they were ahead in until time expired and the 10 point loss to Chicago.)


His highest point totals in fantasy have been in close games. Weeks 1,3 and 5.

 

[Bandit]

I think if nothing else, those stats prove that he's going to get touches no matter when it is or what the score is. It just so happens that in the 4th quarter the majority of his touches have been in the passing game, but that's because they were forced to throw the ball more playing from behind so it makes sense. It's not like he isn't on the field a lot in the first 3 quarters also. If they ever play with a lead those reception touches will just turn into rushing touches. At least that's what it looks like to me.

 

[Robotech]

I think if nothing else, those stats prove that he's going to get touches no matter when it is or what the score is. It just so happens that in the 4th quarter the majority of his touches have been in the passing game, but that's because they were forced to throw the ball more playing from behind so it makes sense. It's not like he isn't on the field a lot in the first 3 quarters also. If they ever play with a lead those reception touches will just turn into rushing touches. At least that's what it looks like to me.

Do you think this last game was just a one-off that we throw away, or is being on a bad team going to be a problem for Swift's fantasy owners? I'm wondering if I should elevate Eli Mitchell into my RB2 spot, or maybe that's the Niners homer in me, and the Niners are arguably a bad team, too.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Do you think this last game was just a one-off that we throw away, or is being on a bad team going to be a problem for Swift's fantasy owners? I'm wondering if I should elevate Eli Mitchell into my RB2 spot, or maybe that's the Niners homer in me, and the Niners are arguably a bad team, too.

mitchell is good but until he catches balls he will be TD dependent... Swift has such a safe floor...

but you if you have one of them on your bench you are doing damn well right now...

 

[Robotech]

mitchell is good but until he catches balls he will be TD dependent... Swift has such a safe floor...

but you if you have one of them on your bench you are doing damn well right now...

Thanks. It's an 8 team league, so rostering a bunch of good players isn't as big of a challenge. Good point about Swift's floor. My league is full PPR, and Swift would've had 10.1 points yesterday if not for the fumble.

 

[Mebert]

Thanks. It's an 8 team league, so rostering a bunch of good players isn't as big of a challenge. Good point about Swift's floor. My league is full PPR, and Swift would've had 10.1 points yesterday if not for the fumble.

Based on the season so far Swift could end the season with 1400 yards, 10 tds, and 100 catches. I don't see any reason to see his production drop off, Williams has taken the number of snaps that he is going to take at this point, I would say his snap count is pretty locked in.

 

[leftypower]

I think the better question is whether he can stay on the field - he just doesn't seem to be most durable type. That said, they will continue to feature him until the wheels fall off. ...

 

[Robotech]

I don't know who Tim Boyle is, but if he is the starter on Sunday instead of Goff, what does this mean for D'Andre Swift?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I don't know who Tim Boyle is, but if he is the starter on Sunday instead of Goff, what does this mean for D'Andre Swift?

nothings changed

 

[leftypower]

I don't know who Tim Boyle is, but if he is the starter on Sunday instead of Goff, what does this mean for D'Andre Swift?

Anyone can hand the ball off - - although I'm sure he will routinely face a stacked box