Is Andrew Luck lucky?

[flyerhawk]

I am sick to death of Tom Brady and his suspension saga. Let's talk some actual football.

Why Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck has been lucky to not throw more interceptions

Let me start off by saying that the writer of this article was a long time poster over KFFL. He stopped posting when he got the ESPN gig. He was about as big a Luck homer as we had over there.

But in this article he shows that Andrew Lucky has been surprisingly lucky when it comes to turnovers.

Luck's 16 INTs in 2014 ranked sixth most in the league, and we're careful not to read too much into that number. Our adjusted interceptions metric -- which removes flukey INTs (Hail Mary throws, dropped passes) and adds in dropped INTs and picks broken up by the offensive player -- has a better year-to-year correlation at 0.30, which still isn't strong, but is double that of regular interception rate.

And when you look at Luck's first three seasons through that prism, it's clear he's been, well, quite lucky to not throw more picks in his first three seasons.


Andrew Luck's Adjusted INTs
YEAR INTS DROPPED INTS ADJUSTED INTS RANK
2012 18 14 30 1st
2013 9 5 14 T-14th
2014 16 7 21 T-2nd

So is Andrew Luck lucky or is something else going on?

 

[SonnyCID]

It's his defense's fault.

 

[Rock Strongo]

if only he never had to play new england...

 

[flyerhawk]

I thought I would get a bit more action with this thread.

The troll threads are sucking the air out of this place.

 

[cdumler7]

I thought I would get a bit more action with this thread.

The troll threads are sucking the air out of this place.

It is true. I about missed this thread thinking it was just another among all the troll threads.

I think Luck has one fatal flaw. He gets the Favre problem of thinking he has to do too much and that he can do more than he already is. He tries to force balls into places he has no business doing.

I would also say that Luck has his moments of being very streaky. When he is on hard to think of too many in this league are better but I do see him with some pretty errant throws sometimes so yeah I would say his interception numbers can be a bit lucky as you point out here because he is just trying to do so much. I think in the next few years as he figures this out and what his limitations are his numbers will become much better. He hasn't arrived yet as much as people want to think he has.

 

[Clayton]

He is also lucky he hasn't gotten hurt and he is lucky to be in the AFC South.

Indy's run game has been a bit of a mess. He has been the man since day 1 and as the focal point of his offense I think its better to measure him with wins and losses and what he is doing in the playoffs. I think if Gore is healthy then Luck should force the ball less.

I think its fair to say that Luck could improve. I think its also fair to say that 28-31 teams would trade their QB for Luck

 

[flyerhawk]

I would also say that Luck has his moments of being very streaky. When he is on hard to think of too many in this league are better but I do see him with some pretty errant throws sometimes so yeah I would say his interception numbers can be a bit lucky as you point out here because he is just trying to do so much. I think in the next few years as he figures this out and what his limitations are his numbers will become much better. He hasn't arrived yet as much as people want to think he has.

I agree with this. I was listening the Grantland podcast and they were talking about Luck being the presumptive heir apparent for this year's NFL MVP award. And, to me, I think it is just too early to talk about it unless he takes a big step up in his performance particularly his consistency.

He wasn't particularly good against teams with winning records last year. He threw at least 1 interception in 8 games and 2 interceptions in 4 of them.

OTOH, he really enjoyed the bottom feeders. Against teams with 6 of fewer wins he had 20 TDs and 2 Ints.

Once again, he will enjoy once of the easiest schedules in the league, based on the previous season, but he needs to step up his play against the better teams before I would consider him a legit MVP candidate.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think its fair to say that Luck could improve. I think its also fair to say that 28-31 teams would trade their QB for Luck

Honestly I would say 30 teams would definitely trade him, and adjust their salary cap to fit him long term. The Seahawks would be the only team, other than the Pack obviously, that would think long and hard about it simply because he fits their very successful system quite well and they already have their cap mapped out. Can't think of any other team that wouldn't take him tomorrow.

 

[Clayton]

I agree with this. I was listening the Grantland podcast and they were talking about Luck being the presumptive heir apparent for this year's NFL MVP award.

Colts offense should trend upward next year.

The thing about Grantland is that Barnwell is good at picking up trends, Mayes is good at figuring out who is good and bad in the trenches and Simmons was good at finding the outliers and Achilles heels. Without Simmons, they arent really going to make many bold predictions.

 

[BHF]

I am sick to death of Tom Brady and his suspension saga. Let's talk some actual football.

Why Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck has been lucky to not throw more interceptions

Let me start off by saying that the writer of this article was a long time poster over KFFL. He stopped posting when he got the ESPN gig. He was about as big a Luck homer as we had over there.

But in this article he shows that Andrew Lucky has been surprisingly lucky when it comes to turnovers.

Luck's 16 INTs in 2014 ranked sixth most in the league, and we're careful not to read too much into that number. Our adjusted interceptions metric -- which removes flukey INTs (Hail Mary throws, dropped passes) and adds in dropped INTs and picks broken up by the offensive player -- has a better year-to-year correlation at 0.30, which still isn't strong, but is double that of regular interception rate.

And when you look at Luck's first three seasons through that prism, it's clear he's been, well, quite lucky to not throw more picks in his first three seasons.


Andrew Luck's Adjusted INTs
YEAR INTS DROPPED INTS ADJUSTED INTS RANK
2012 18 14 30 1st
2013 9 5 14 T-14th
2014 16 7 21 T-2nd

So is Andrew Luck lucky or is something else going on?

His stat collection was always fantastic, the analysis of those stats...well, you know.

For the sake of comparison, did he go into any other QBs?

 

[flyerhawk]

His stat collection was always fantastic, the analysis of those stats...well, you know.

For the sake of comparison, did he go into any other QBs?

Briefly saying that the other top tier QBs were about half his true interception count.

 

[flyerhawk]

The thing about Grantland is that Barnwell is good at picking up trends, Mayes is good at figuring out who is good and bad in the trenches and Simmons was good at finding the outliers and Achilles heels. Without Simmons, they arent really going to make many bold predictions.

Probably not. But they do a great job talking about players I know next to nothing about.

 

[night]

It is true. I about missed this thread thinking it was just another among all the troll threads.

I think Luck has one fatal flaw. He gets the Favre problem of thinking he has to do too much and that he can do more than he already is. He tries to force balls into places he has no business doing.

I would also say that Luck has his moments of being very streaky. When he is on hard to think of too many in this league are better but I do see him with some pretty errant throws sometimes so yeah I would say his interception numbers can be a bit lucky as you point out here because he is just trying to do so much. I think in the next few years as he figures this out and what his limitations are his numbers will become much better. He hasn't arrived yet as much as people want to think he has.

You can say that about almost every quarterback's interceptions though. I was looking here earlier today and for the majority of the interceptions Ryan threw you can point to him trying to create an opportunity that wasn't there. I'd wager that this problem is exacerbated for most quarterbacks trying to carry a team with a poor defense.

 

[SonnyCID]

You can say that about almost every quarterback's interceptions though. I was looking here earlier today and for the majority of the interceptions Ryan threw you can point to him trying to create an opportunity that wasn't there. I'd wager that this problem is exacerbated for most quarterbacks trying to carry a team with a poor defense.

And there it is.

 

[truckman]

I really think that Luck will end up being one of the best who play. He has the tools. The Colts have not exactly surrounded him with talent.

I also think he tries to toss it and hope for the best at times.

 

[Desean12345]

I'd say he's been a little unlucky up to this point in his career. However most of that can be attributed to being a number 1 pick.

 

[Dude]

Luck is being at the right place at the right time and doing the right thing. Lucky Luck.

 

[Manster7588]

Luck is Andrews last name, the lucky QB is Eli.

 

[idontgetoregon]

His dad played with Archie manning in Houston. He plays on the team that Archie mannings son played years for. His name is luck and he has a helmet with a horseshoe on the side. That's enough luck analogies for now

 

[Southieinnc]

It is true. I about missed this thread thinking it was just another among all the troll threads.

I think Luck has one fatal flaw. He gets the Favre problem of thinking he has to do too much and that he can do more than he already is. He tries to force balls into places he has no business doing.

I would also say that Luck has his moments of being very streaky. When he is on hard to think of too many in this league are better but I do see him with some pretty errant throws sometimes so yeah I would say his interception numbers can be a bit lucky as you point out here because he is just trying to do so much. I think in the next few years as he figures this out and what his limitations are his numbers will become much better. He hasn't arrived yet as much as people want to think he has.

Or he will be come Favre.....