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I'm in a dynasty draft.....

TREFF

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Brass tacks on both those dudes, even if the coin lands heads up on either E Moore or Marshall and they are truly above average NFL WR's, you're still banking on both Zach Wilson, and the Jets coaching staff pulling their heads out for Moore to realize any potential. And in Marshall's case, you're banking on not only Sam Darnold doing a complete 180 on his career, but that Marshall himself forces the Panthers to throw to him over CMAC and DJ Moore...
That's a lot to overcome
 

DALLAScornhusker

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Brass tacks on both those dudes, even if the coin lands heads up on either E Moore or Marshall and they are truly above average NFL WR's, you're still banking on both Zach Wilson, and the Jets coaching staff pulling their heads out for Moore to realize any potential. And in Marshall's case, you're banking on not only Sam Darnold doing a complete 180 on his career, but that Marshall himself forces the Panthers to throw to him over CMAC and DJ Moore...
That's a lot to overcome
Let's dive into that lots to overcome part. I sense more see it the way you do, the apprehension over the Jets team since they've been bad for so long. It's hard to remember any fantasy relevant players. On the other hand, perception of Carolina is it's all about CMC, not much for leftovers.

We don't know a lot about the Jets staff. We do know the type of offense and the IQ level of this staff vs Gase & Co. Both are improvements across the board. Gase-led offenses have finished last, last, runner up to last. Wilson doesn't have to overcome what Darnold was asked to do. He even starts off with better talent around him. With Shanahan's offense, the Jets will be able to run and use play action, even though the RB talent is iffy (they'll collectively be superior to Gore and the ghost of Le'veon). Wilson will make rookie mistakes, but he is generally going to take high percentage passes, same as Jimmy G in SF. Speaking of SF, the best WR on that team is actually a TE. But even the second best is fantasy relevant. I see a lot of similarities between Aiyuk and Moore. Both are inside/outside win with quickness, route excellence and hands.
Darnold gets a fresh start as well. I don't think it's such a stretch to achieve what Teddy did. That 180 you describe is more like 45 just moving on from Gase. It's not as if Darnold has to catch the top NFL passers, just 2020 Teddy. 240 yards a game, right about what Darnold was doing for Gase(!). Teddy managed to net the 24, 25, & 26 FF WRs in 0.5ppr. With CMC back in the fold it might take passes away, or it can have zero effect with more sustained drives. Mike Davis caught 59 balls in CMC's absence, while CMC added about 20 in 3 games. Pretty close to the pace CMC has shown for his typical season. Add in that the Panthers were aweful in the redzone in 2020, so the likelihood of an uptick in scoring should even out anything CMC takes away from the WRs.
This is to say nothing about what these two players could do in a vacuum. I like Moore to an Aiyuk/Ridley type of WR. Marshall looks like an Allen Robinson who is on the physical player spectrum. There is opportunity for both to shine in their offenses.
 

TREFF

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Let's dive into that lots to overcome part. I sense more see it the way you do, the apprehension over the Jets team since they've been bad for so long. It's hard to remember any fantasy relevant players. On the other hand, perception of Carolina is it's all about CMC, not much for leftovers.

We don't know a lot about the Jets staff. We do know the type of offense and the IQ level of this staff vs Gase & Co. Both are improvements across the board. Gase-led offenses have finished last, last, runner up to last. Wilson doesn't have to overcome what Darnold was asked to do. He even starts off with better talent around him. With Shanahan's offense, the Jets will be able to run and use play action, even though the RB talent is iffy (they'll collectively be superior to Gore and the ghost of Le'veon). Wilson will make rookie mistakes, but he is generally going to take high percentage passes, same as Jimmy G in SF. Speaking of SF, the best WR on that team is actually a TE. But even the second best is fantasy relevant. I see a lot of similarities between Aiyuk and Moore. Both are inside/outside win with quickness, route excellence and hands.
Darnold gets a fresh start as well. I don't think it's such a stretch to achieve what Teddy did. That 180 you describe is more like 45 just moving on from Gase. It's not as if Darnold has to catch the top NFL passers, just 2020 Teddy. 240 yards a game, right about what Darnold was doing for Gase(!). Teddy managed to net the 24, 25, & 26 FF WRs in 0.5ppr. With CMC back in the fold it might take passes away, or it can have zero effect with more sustained drives. Mike Davis caught 59 balls in CMC's absence, while CMC added about 20 in 3 games. Pretty close to the pace CMC has shown for his typical season. Add in that the Panthers were aweful in the redzone in 2020, so the likelihood of an uptick in scoring should even out anything CMC takes away from the WRs.
This is to say nothing about what these two players could do in a vacuum. I like Moore to an Aiyuk/Ridley type of WR. Marshall looks like an Allen Robinson who is on the physical player spectrum. There is opportunity for both to shine in their offenses.
But you never once mentioned DJ Moore, in addition to CMAC, and they don't exist in a vacuum. In a vacuum, Rex Burkhead is the greatest football player of his time, but since he's not a great athlete and doesn't play in a vacuum, he's just another RB
 

DALLAScornhusker

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But you never once mentioned DJ Moore, in addition to CMAC, and they don't exist in a vacuum. In a vacuum, Rex Burkhead is the greatest football player of his time, but since he's not a great athlete and doesn't play in a vacuum, he's just another RB
I didn't name DJ, but made reference to him, Samuel, and Robbie in that they finished 24, 25, 26 in 0.5 ppr. Is he so dominant that he takes all of Samuel's leftovers? He is an extraordinary athlete, but he doesn't yet demand the offense flow through him.
I only say vaccum because if these WRs were drafted by the Chiefs or GB, we wouldn't be having the discussion about them belonging being drafted above Pat F'muth and Jones.
 

TREFF

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I didn't name DJ, but made reference to him, Samuel, and Robbie in that they finished 24, 25, 26 in 0.5 ppr. Is he so dominant that he takes all of Samuel's leftovers? He is an extraordinary athlete, but he doesn't yet demand the offense flow through him.
I only say vaccum because if these WRs were drafted by the Chiefs or GB, we wouldn't be having the discussion about them belonging being drafted above Pat F'muth and Jones.
No hes not that dominant,, not at all, but Samuel's leftovers are hardly anything to brag about though, and it's far from proven that he's capable of being on Samuel's level, let alone become the best option in Carolina and usurping Moore...which is what he'd have to do, to make choosing a TE over him be "fuckery".

Samuel is a proven NFL producer, Moore is a proven NFL star, on the rise towards, a proven NFL stud...I'm not about to assume that a 2nd round WR who had the privilege of playing across from Chase to build collegiate stats, is going to come in and be automatically fantasy relevant in an offense that lives and dies through its RB, already has a bona-fide #1 WR, and is QB'ed by Sam Darnold. Yes I think it's a very intelligent move to take a TE with no real competition to speak of, in an offense that has produced some healthy numbers at TE, and will be needing a security blanket for a young QB very soon. Not fuckery in the slightest..pretty save imho
 
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TREFF

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Just for points of reference..the 4 dynasty's I'm in...which by Harold's standards, 4 is child's play..but..in those 4...
D1- Jones was taken at #16, Friermouth 20, Marshall 23, Moore 28.

D2- Marshall 16 (which Tlance immediately realized he maybe should've taken Jones as we as a league had a lengthy debate on the value of QB's in a 16 team league), Moore 18, Jones 19, Friermouth 22

Bandits- Marshall 15, Friermouth 22, Moore 22, Jones 28

Old School- Marshall 16, Moore 21, Friermouth 23, Jones 25.

Obviously varying league settings, scoring rules, and owners all with their own varying preferences, and where their spots fell in the draft might mean more than where their targets were drafted.. (I think it should be noted that Monkey owns Marshall in most these leagues :) but I digress ), but they were all 4, consistently, in a cluster together, which tells me, that's its close enough that by no means is it crazy to think any one of them should or should not go before any of the other three
 

TREFF

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BTW, I'm obviously extremely biased...as already specifically mentioned, I was not at all a fan of this year's WR class, minus Chase.

But, I just realized, that outside of the the instances where I was able to draft Chase...I never took a single WR with any of the picks in either of the 4, 5 round round drafts..not a one
 

DALLAScornhusker

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No hes not that dominant,, not at all, but Samuel's leftovers are hardly anything to brag about though, and it's far from proven that he's capable of being on Samuel's level, let alone become the best option in Carolina and usurping Moore...which is what he'd have to do, to make choosing a TE over him be "fuckery".

Samuel is a proven NFL producer, Moore is a proven NFL star, on the rise towards, a proven NFL stud...I'm not about to assume that a 2nd round WR who had the privilege of playing across from Chase to build collegiate stats, is going to come in and be automatically fantasy relevant in an offense that lives and dies through its RB, already has a bona-fide #1 WR, and is QB'ed by Sam Darnold. Yes I think it's a very intelligent move to take a TE with no real competition to speak of, in an offense that has produced some healthy numbers at TE, and will be needing a security blanket for a young QB very soon. Not fuckery in the slightest..pretty save imho
Marshall wouldn't need to usurp Moore. He can be his own brand, fill the big WR role and produce TDs. He could usurp some of Robbie's targets, but he doesn't need to in order to be able to produce top 25 seasons such as Samuel just laid down. Marshall was producing in this role both in 19 with Chase and in 20 without him. So pairing Marshall with DJ won't matter much to him.

The fuckery lies in what type of production can be seiged in Pittsburgh to plant Pat above Marshall in the role I spoke of. Pitt actually had 3 WRs produce higher ff than anyone in Carolina last year. Much of that can be attributed to having the worse ground game I've seen from a Steelers team in my lifetime. They've taken steps to improve that this off-season. Furthermore, Pat will need to wait his turn, as Ebron is still there. He is not "no real competition" The rookie TE factor puts him on your bench for the 21 season.

So when you get down to brass tacks, you dumped a top 15 draft pick on a player you know ahead of time you are redshirting. Now comes the hard part in trying to project 2 years out. Will Ben be there in 22? You have to assume Ebron won't sign another contract there, but he certainly could. If Pat takes over the starting role year 2, how does he fit? He is not as fleet of foot as Ebron, he is more of a possession TE than a yac guy (smh at Nebraska - unless he's left alone). He is hard to bring down, but same can be said for many a TE. Since he is no Pitts/Kelce/Kittle type threat, he's going to need volume to produce good ff seasons. Juju, Johnson and Claypool are all 24 or younger, they aren't going anywhere. Their targets aren't for sale, but the concern is if the running game will shrink the pot they all share from. Pitt TEs have usually yielded a sub 20% target share as a unit going back into the AB era. A 20 Ebron season is likely his ceiling moving forward until things change.
 

TREFF

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Marshall wouldn't need to usurp Moore. He can be his own brand, fill the big WR role and produce TDs. He could usurp some of Robbie's targets, but he doesn't need to in order to be able to produce top 25 seasons such as Samuel just laid down. Marshall was producing in this role both in 19 with Chase and in 20 without him. So pairing Marshall with DJ won't matter much to him.

The fuckery lies in what type of production can be seiged in Pittsburgh to plant Pat above Marshall in the role I spoke of. Pitt actually had 3 WRs produce higher ff than anyone in Carolina last year. Much of that can be attributed to having the worse ground game I've seen from a Steelers team in my lifetime. They've taken steps to improve that this off-season. Furthermore, Pat will need to wait his turn, as Ebron is still there. He is not "no real competition" The rookie TE factor puts him on your bench for the 21 season.

So when you get down to brass tacks, you dumped a top 15 draft pick on a player you know ahead of time you are redshirting. Now comes the hard part in trying to project 2 years out. Will Ben be there in 22? You have to assume Ebron won't sign another contract there, but he certainly could. If Pat takes over the starting role year 2, how does he fit? He is not as fleet of foot as Ebron, he is more of a possession TE than a yac guy (smh at Nebraska - unless he's left alone). He is hard to bring down, but same can be said for many a TE. Since he is no Pitts/Kelce/Kittle type threat, he's going to need volume to produce good ff seasons. Juju, Johnson and Claypool are all 24 or younger, they aren't going anywhere. Their targets aren't for sale, but the concern is if the running game will shrink the pot they all share from. Pitt TEs have usually yielded a sub 20% target share as a unit going back into the AB era. A 20 Ebron season is likely his ceiling moving forward until things change.
Well I would counter that unless Marshall sets camp on fire, you're redshirting him as a rookie too. Cmac, Moore, Anderson all in front of him in the usage pecking order..at this time at least, and of course...Darnold at QB..at no point are you going to be itching to start Anderson, let alone the next guy...barring a minor miracle that virtually no one is projecting. Could he beat out Anderson? Certainly, in fact I would expect it eventually. But in no way is it a given. Anderson is a rock solid, quality, albeit uninspiring, NFL caliber starting WR


We can go back n forth for days making assumptions about this stuff..but bottom line, they're all valued around the same, and if a team owner needs TE depth more than they need WR depth, and he/she holds a higher draft position than the guy who has a hard on for the #3 receiver in Carolina, it's ridiculous to claim they're idiots because of it
 

DALLAScornhusker

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Well I would counter that unless Marshall sets camp on fire, you're redshirting him as a rookie too. Cmac, Moore, Anderson all in front of him in the usage pecking order..at this time at least, and of course...Darnold at QB..at no point are you going to be itching to start Anderson, let alone the next guy...barring a minor miracle that virtually no one is projecting. Could he beat out Anderson? Certainly, in fact I would expect it eventually. But in no way is it a given. Anderson is a rock solid, quality, albeit uninspiring, NFL caliber starting WR


We can go back n forth for days making assumptions about this stuff..but bottom line, they're all valued around the same, and if a team owner needs TE depth more than they need WR depth, and he/she holds a higher draft position than the guy who has a hard on for the #3 receiver in Carolina, it's ridiculous to claim they're idiots because of it
Marshall doesn't need to light anything on fire, except maybe your assumption of none of the WRs after Chase are worth diddly poo. If Marshall puts together something close to the points Samuel did, he would be utilized in most any league starting 3wrs. A TE seeing 20 snaps a game behind a starter is not going to see the starting lineup in anything short of 2 TE ff leagues, so that is a redshirt. Year two for both Pat and Marshall will shed more light. Both Ebron's and Robbie's contracts are up.

If you think they are all valued the same, speaks to why you and I have spent a page disagreeing on this. I've seen many of the lists pegging one or both WRs as a first rounder. I have yet to see one mark Pat or Jones as one (outside 2qb leagues). My personal list has Moore top 10, Marshall top 14, Pat and Jones in the 3rd round. Just seems like a stretch to flip it so they are above especially when this same guy has a bevy of other picks at his disposal. We have all been guilty of dumbfuckery, doesn't make us all idiots. Sometimes we can be guilty of believing a preconceived notion and be blind for a moment. Or in this case be so desperate it makes you reach.
 

HaroldSeattle

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Marshall doesn't need to light anything on fire, except maybe your assumption of none of the WRs after Chase are worth diddly poo. If Marshall puts together something close to the points Samuel did, he would be utilized in most any league starting 3wrs. A TE seeing 20 snaps a game behind a starter is not going to see the starting lineup in anything short of 2 TE ff leagues, so that is a redshirt. Year two for both Pat and Marshall will shed more light. Both Ebron's and Robbie's contracts are up.

If you think they are all valued the same, speaks to why you and I have spent a page disagreeing on this. I've seen many of the lists pegging one or both WRs as a first rounder. I have yet to see one mark Pat or Jones as one (outside 2qb leagues). My personal list has Moore top 10, Marshall top 14, Pat and Jones in the 3rd round. Just seems like a stretch to flip it so they are above especially when this same guy has a bevy of other picks at his disposal. We have all been guilty of dumbfuckery, doesn't make us all idiots. Sometimes we can be guilty of believing a preconceived notion and be blind for a moment. Or in this case be so desperate it makes you reach.
IDK if you noticed that this is a standard scoring league and WRs don't hold the same value as a PPR league. I looked at my only other standard league draft and Freiermuth and Jones were drafted ahead of those WRs your touting in that league also.
 

DALLAScornhusker

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IDK if you noticed that this is a standard scoring league and WRs don't hold the same value as a PPR league. I looked at my only other standard league draft and Freiermuth and Jones were drafted ahead of those WRs your touting in that league also.
I don't usually play the standard leagues, but TEs and WRs suffer equally in that regard. Yards and TDs rule. This isn't a great RB draft either, so I hope we aren't suggesting a slew of RBs should be taken over them. Which leads back to the QBs, just because it's a standard doesn't make QBs more important. Sounds like this guy was in a world of hurt in that area, which I admitted last page I understood why he did it now (desperation).
 

HaroldSeattle

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I don't usually play the standard leagues, but TEs and WRs suffer equally in that regard. Yards and TDs rule. This isn't a great RB draft either, so I hope we aren't suggesting a slew of RBs should be taken over them. Which leads back to the QBs, just because it's a standard doesn't make QBs more important. Sounds like this guy was in a world of hurt in that area, which I admitted last page I understood why he did it now (desperation).
I think he had put himself in a position of need roster wise and the draft didn't go his way. Pitt went right in front of Chase, if that had been reversed likely he takes one of those WR you like. He had no back up TE on his roster and Freiermuth generally is the second TE off the board in drafts. Also while TE and WR are both TD/ yardage dependent in standard scoring leagues, it's simply easier to find a decent WR vs a TE. Can't say I like his draft, think it broke wrong for his needs, however he did what he felt he needed to.
 
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