I GUARANTEE a win over Bill

[mrschaney]

Bengals 36
Bill 24

Bill is very unpredictable, up and down. I do not have a good feel for Bill

 

[CrashDavisSports]

We have lost 10 of our last 12 games against the Bills. This is a much more talented and healthy Bengals team though. The Bills have a sneaky tough defense though especially with that DL and backfield. I guess I see it this way:

If Tyrod can play at 100% without any real issue with his leg, the game would be something like....

Offensive Scoring Ranks
Cincinnati Bengals 29.6 PPG (Ranks 4th) Gain 421.4 YPG (Ranked 2nd)
Buffalo Bills 24.8 PPG (Ranks 9th) Gain 328.2 YPG (Ranked 24th)

Defensive Scoring Ranks
Cincinnati Bengals 20.2 PPG (Ranks 10th) Allow 371.2 YPG (Ranked 21st)
Buffalo Bills 21.0 PPG (Ranks 13th) Allow 356.2 YPG (Ranked 16th)

Based on this..
The Bengals score a point for every 14.24 yards on offense.
The Bengals allow a point for every 18.38 yards allowed on defense.

The Bills score a point for every 13.23 yards on offense.
The Bills allow a point for every 16.96 yards allowed on defense.

If you split the difference between what each team gains and allows it would be something similar to this..

The Bengals will offensively gain (421.4 - 356.2 / 2 + 356.2) 388.7 yards
The Bills will offensively gain (371.2 - 328.2 / 2 + 328.2) 349.7 yards

If the Bengals score a point for every 14.24 yards of offense, they should score about 27.3 points
If the Bills score a point for every 13.23 yards of offense, they should score about 26.4 points

If the Bengals defense only allows a point for every 18.38 yards, they should give up 19.02 points
If the Bills defense only allows a point for every 16.96 yards, they should give up 22.9 points

Split the difference between what a team should score and what they give up:

Bengals (27.3 + 22.9 / 2) = 25.1
Bills (26.4 + 22.9 / 2) = 24.65

Factor in the home field advantage (-1 for Cincinnati) (+1 for the Bills)

Cincinnati Bengals 24.1
Buffalo Bills 25.65

Cincinnati Bengals 24
Buffalo Bills 26

This is if Tyrod is in the game and plays at the same level he has been playing at. If he is not in the game and they have to go with EJ Manuel, I think we may win by 10+ points. Of course, this all depends on offensive miscues and turnovers as well, but if there is no turnovers and both teams play to the exact levels they have been averaging, I think the Bengals will come out on the short end of the stick here.

Of course I could always add averaging starting field position and turnovers into my equation as well based on the average of what each team has done to this point. I just didn't. This is the simple method. haha

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Think this is a good measuring stick for how "different" these Bengals are

Tough road test, last seasons Bengals lose this game, and go on to lose 3 of 4 and go 10-6

I think something is clicking differently this season

 

[Cincyfan78]

If Tyrod plays, he won't be 100%. He's already talked about having to wear a brace and how it will limit his mobility. If he's forced to be a pocket passer, he'll struggle. The rush will be a big factor as he won't be able to move. Honestly, I'd be surprised if he plays.

I'm expecting EJ.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Think this is a good measuring stick for how "different" these Bengals are

Tough road test, last seasons Bengals lose this game, and go on to lose 3 of 4 and go 10-6

I think something is clicking differently this season

Is every game going to be the measuring stick? The weak they played Baltimore it was a measuring stick as they go into Baltimore and lose a lead, get it back on the next play and play for tit for tat until they come out on top.

Then the Seattle game with the #2 ranked defense is a measuring stick game as they look like the same old Bungles until the 4th quarter hits and they come back from 17 points down with less than 15 minutes to go against a stingy Seattle defense that had just beat them up in the 3rd quarter.

Now the Bills game is a measuring stick?

Will the Bengals ever just get to a point in the season where every game is not a measuring stick game for them?

People do realize that even very good teams lose 3 or 4 games a year right? The Bengals are not going to go 16-0, but I can see a possible 12-4 run. If they lose this week against a tough Bills defense with a coach that knows our team well from being with Baltimore and facing us several times as a Jets coach, while also being a coach under Marvin Lewis's defense in Baltimore, that losing this game doesn't make us less of a team right? It is in Buffalo, we have lost 10 of the last 12 against them, we have a long win streak going so far with a BYE coming up and then Pittsburgh. There is a good chance we lose this game, especially if Tyrod is full strength. I think if Manuel has to play instead, with him not being as mobile and not as accurate with the ball that we could win by double digits. We will see, but I wouldn't rule out a possible loss here.

 

[DanBengalfan]

We should pull through. Are the new improved Bengals consistent? that's the question.

 

[Cincyfan78]

We should pull through. Are the new improved Bengals consistent? that's the question.

They have been through 5 games. Sure, they've had some lulls, but good teams, consistent teams, find ways to pull games out even when they hit those. They've done that.

As for the Bills, I think they should win. Much like with Seattle, this offense has so much depth that it really does take away a lot of what other defenses want to do. Shut down AJ, throw to Eiffert, he's not open, hit Sanu, Dalton getting pressured he's scrambling and finding Gio. Drop back 7, and Gio (and eventually Hill at some point) will chew the defense up, and wear them out. The key to this offense is health.

If they win here, hard to see them not winning 12 games. Split with Pitt, maybe a loss @ Arizona, and you figure maybe a loss somewhere in that back-end of the schedule. Also, don't sleep on the Rams.

 

[cincygrad]

I think we should win the game.

But there will be weeks of the season that our sloppiness, or just having an off day, will cost us. At about 3:00 last Sunday, I was pretty sure that's what we were seeing.

As good as we've been, we've also left a ton of points on the field through penalties and failed execution. We've given up two touchdowns on turnovers. And our defense has given up explosive plays because of miscommunication. This is good, because we can fix most of those issues - And if we do, it will make it that much harder to beat us. On the other hand, if we keep doing this stuff, we're going to blow a game we should have won. Let's hope it's not this weekend.

 

[JBUCK66]

as always, there will be swearing

 

[alf8478]

24-23 Bills. Road game before the bye against a team they should handles scares me. If they win, I'll be a believer

 

[kramer1]

I'll be at my kids soccer game. Yeah, some retard scheduled a soccer game at 2:30 on a Sunday.

My kid doesn't even like soccer. He's not even any damn good at soccer. Thanks, his mother. Thanks.

 

[sharkymcwrath]

I'm looking forward to this game. I think the Bengals will win but it will be a battle that fat Rex somehow screws up in the end.

 

[DanBengalfan]

I'll be at my kids soccer game. Yeah, some retard scheduled a soccer game at 2:30 on a Sunday.

My kid doesn't even like soccer. He's not even any damn good at soccer. Thanks, his mother. Thanks.

SAY soccer is retarded, if there's another season, find a different league.

 

[cincygrad]

I'll be at my kids soccer game. Yeah, some retard scheduled a soccer game at 2:30 on a Sunday.

My kid doesn't even like soccer. He's not even any damn good at soccer. Thanks, his mother. Thanks.

I'm guessing on your son's team there has to be at least one parent that loves soccer..... He's probably a smug douche and loves to tell you how much he hates football. And he's always wearing those super gay Adidas sandals that everyone was wearing with socks in the 90s.

Find that guy's contact information.... I'm sure his email handle has something to do with Manchester United..... Mostly because the term ManU sort of turns him on (as does man anything). Contact him and ask him to pick up your son and take him to the game. Tell your son that you'd go, but you hate soccer and that you're glad that he hates soccer. Honesty is good for children.

You're welcome.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm anxiously awaiting June's thoughts about the footage from the Bengals locker yesterday.

 

[DanBengalfan]

they need to focus on Pittsburgh, not their asses.