Hurricane is Forming and it Could Become a Class 5

[BigKen]

The NFL, The NFLPA and the NFL Owners have been meeting on Skype and Zoom and their telephones have been been needing a recharge at least twice a day.

Covid will without a doubt have a huge effect on the NFL season, IF and that's big if, they can actually pull it off.

First, having the 2020 season cancelled might be the best scenario for the players and the league owners. They could count the season toward seniority and and hopefully not miss a beat and keep everything exactly as it is now. The problem will be fitting in the 2021 Draft if it's held and the players. They are supposedly discussing increasing the Practice Squad of each team to 20 players for a three year period and those players would be eligible for a move to the NFL team twice during a season. They would be a permanent player after the second call up.

IF THEY PLAY...............................

Players receive 48% of the total revenues.
TV Contracts
NFL Network & Product Sales
AR (Associated Revenues) Ticket Sales, Parking, Concessions

The Salary Cap for teams is based on these revenues and 2020 could be devestating. The estimates by financial experts from all three members of the talks say that playing a 2020 season could create the worst financial storm the league has ever seen. It appears that the Cap could take a $60M hit for 2021and if a vaccine isn't created, the same problem would carry into 2022.

Teams give out contracts anticipating that the Cap will increase by 10% annually. Teams that have monster contracts that are in effect could be the worst hit. The league and the NFLPA are warning owners not to trying to circumvent the a future hit because every team will be required to meet the cap and there will be no contract exceptions. If the cap does take a $60M hit, the three sides are discussing a three year plan in an attempt to ease the hit. The plan that appears to be most favored is a reduction to $168.2M in 2021, $153.2M in 2022 and $135.2 in 2023. If everything gets back to normal in 2022 then the 2022 Cap would hold and the 2024 Cap would be recalculated to a full cap.

If the cap does take any kind of hit, it will effect contracts and older players. The expected $50M Mahomes contracts will be impossible because the Chiefs would be looking at giving Mahomes 38% of the team's available money. The Franchise salaries will also be affected by approx. 35%.

If the owners, league and NFLPA agree to a one time one year hit of $60M to the cap, only four teams will be under the cap in 2021. There's no question that players will have to renegotiate contracts, teams will have to dump contracts and worst of all, teams will cut older, experienced players with a big contracts.

As one person close to these talks said, this is storm is a financial tropical storm right now but a major financial hurricane is brewing and no one will be able to hide or get away from it. Putting their heads together and trying to deal with it now will make the clean up much easier.

One owner said that the virus will force teams to physically change the stadiums at a huge cost. In his words, "Every other row will have to be made inaccessible. Every usable seat will have two unusable seats between them. Every seat will require sterilization after every game.That will be the 25% rule for attendance and we'll have to pay to upgrade once the virus has been controlled, if that ever happens."

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I trust the NFL has a "Act Of God" or pandemic provision built into their contracts. Hopefully they do a better job of working it out than MLB did.

 

[redseat]

I trust the NFL has a "Act Of God" or pandemic provision built into their contracts. Hopefully they do a better job of working it out than MLB did.

Goodell pays the salaries for all furloughed employees... He can afford it

 

[Shanemansj13]

Goodell pays the salaries for all furloughed employees... He can afford it

When push comes to shove Goodell should have to pay for it lol

 

[redseat]

When push comes to shove Goodell should have to pay for it lol

Does he still make $40 million/year?

 

[Shanemansj13]

Does he still make $40 million/year?

Yep he has too much to know what to do with it

 

[redseat]

Yep he has too much to know what to do with it

Cleary didn't put it into his man cave

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Goodell pays the salaries for all furloughed employees... He can afford it

He should. lol

My point is...they shouldn't have to renegotiate the entire CBA if there was a pandemic provision allowing the owners to re-calculate the cap in times like these.

 

[molsaniceman]

He should. lol

My point is...they shouldn't have to renegotiate the entire CBA if there was a pandemic provision allowing the owners to re-calculate the cap in times like these.

only the nba had that
the force majeure clause allows the NBA to terminate the CBA


NFLPA acknowledges lack of force majeure clause in CBA.

 

[Center Ice]

The NFL, The NFLPA and the NFL Owners have been meeting on Skype and Zoom and their telephones have been been needing a recharge at least twice a day.

Covid will without a doubt have a huge effect on the NFL season, IF and that's big if, they can actually pull it off.

First, having the 2020 season cancelled might be the best scenario for the players and the league owners. They could count the season toward seniority and and hopefully not miss a beat and keep everything exactly as it is now. The problem will be fitting in the 2021 Draft if it's held and the players. They are supposedly discussing increasing the Practice Squad of each team to 20 players for a three year period and those players would be eligible for a move to the NFL team twice during a season. They would be a permanent player after the second call up.

IF THEY PLAY...............................

Players receive 48% of the total revenues.
TV Contracts
NFL Network & Product Sales
AR (Associated Revenues) Ticket Sales, Parking, Concessions

The Salary Cap for teams is based on these revenues and 2020 could be devestating. The estimates by financial experts from all three members of the talks say that playing a 2020 season could create the worst financial storm the league has ever seen. It appears that the Cap could take a $60M hit for 2021and if a vaccine isn't created, the same problem would carry into 2022.

Teams give out contracts anticipating that the Cap will increase by 10% annually. Teams that have monster contracts that are in effect could be the worst hit. The league and the NFLPA are warning owners not to trying to circumvent the a future hit because every team will be required to meet the cap and there will be no contract exceptions. If the cap does take a $60M hit, the three sides are discussing a three year plan in an attempt to ease the hit. The plan that appears to be most favored is a reduction to $168.2M in 2021, $153.2M in 2022 and $135.2 in 2023. If everything gets back to normal in 2022 then the 2022 Cap would hold and the 2024 Cap would be recalculated to a full cap.

If the cap does take any kind of hit, it will effect contracts and older players. The expected $50M Mahomes contracts will be impossible because the Chiefs would be looking at giving Mahomes 38% of the team's available money. The Franchise salaries will also be affected by approx. 35%.

If the owners, league and NFLPA agree to a one time one year hit of $60M to the cap, only four teams will be under the cap in 2021. There's no question that players will have to renegotiate contracts, teams will have to dump contracts and worst of all, teams will cut older, experienced players with a big contracts.

As one person close to these talks said, this is storm is a financial tropical storm right now but a major financial hurricane is brewing and no one will be able to hide or get away from it. Putting their heads together and trying to deal with it now will make the clean up much easier.

One owner said that the virus will force teams to physically change the stadiums at a huge cost. In his words, "Every other row will have to be made inaccessible. Every usable seat will have two unusable seats between them. Every seat will require sterilization after every game.That will be the 25% rule for attendance and we'll have to pay to upgrade once the virus has been controlled, if that ever happens."

Given that NFL careers tend to be pretty short, it sucks to be an emerging talent in 2020. A lot of money is going to be left behind.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

only the nba had that
the force majeure clause allows the NBA to terminate the CBA


NFLPA acknowledges lack of force majeure clause in CBA.

NBA...If I understand it...if the players decide not to play...it give the owners the right to terminate the current CBA.

So...if the NFL owners do not have such a provision...how do the owners get out of paying the contracts on the books if there is no gate, etc.

 

[BigKen]

So...if the NFL owners do not have such a provision...how do the owners get out of paying the contracts on the books if there is no gate, etc.

Players will paid as long as the season progresses. TV contracts will be paid. The problem is that all of the AR money will be really smacked and that effects everything else. That also kills things like people visiting the team stores and buying jerseys, hats and all of the other stuff by at least 75%. If a team has 20,000 parking spaces at $50 a game that's $8,000,000 of which the players lose roughly $4,000,000 at 16 locations that $64,000,000. And that's just parking. for 20,000 spaces. Gillette Stadium has 40,000 and I'm sure most stadiums have equally as many. I was using 20,000 so I could make the math easier.

No one wants to alter the season because then the money becomes an issue. baseball is looking like total assholes because they all look like fools fights over $10M a game.

It wouldn't surprise me on bit if the NFL makes the decision to just shut down for the 2020 season. Trying to meet cleanliness, sanitizing, reducing exposure and trying to appear that they have any respect for the virus and themselves will be a nightmare.

The biggest problem that the NFL has to deal with is that the salary cap is 100% attached to total revenue. With revenue loss that will destroy the players financial structure and no matter what they try to do, they cannot ignore it. Everyone thinks that every owner has Jerry Jones' money. They don't and at least 11 teams in the league are cash strapped because the team is a significant portion of the owner's incomes. For teams like Green Bay that is not privately owned income is critical to operate and right now there is nearly zero income.

Needless to say, this will be very interesting.

 

[rmilia1]

So basically the entire league is in a Lev Bell situation

Play this year, get your money and maybe not get as much as you want next year OR sit out this year, hope for the best case scenario next year and if you dont get it youre fucked anyway

Seems like an easy decision to me

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Players will paid as long as the season progresses. TV contracts will be paid. The problem is that all of the AR money will be really smacked and that effects everything else. That also kills things like people visiting the team stores and buying jerseys, hats and all of the other stuff by at least 75%. If a team has 20,000 parking spaces at $50 a game that's $8,000,000 of which the players lose roughly $4,000,000 at 16 locations that $64,000,000. And that's just parking. for 20,000 spaces. Gillette Stadium has 40,000 and I'm sure most stadiums have equally as many. I was using 20,000 so I could make the math easier.

No one wants to alter the season because then the money becomes an issue. baseball is looking like total assholes because they all look like fools fights over $10M a game.

It wouldn't surprise me on bit if the NFL makes the decision to just shut down for the 2020 season. Trying to meet cleanliness, sanitizing, reducing exposure and trying to appear that they have any respect for the virus and themselves will be a nightmare.

The biggest problem that the NFL has to deal with is that the salary cap is 100% attached to total revenue. With revenue loss that will destroy the players financial structure and no matter what they try to do, they cannot ignore it. Everyone thinks that every owner has Jerry Jones' money. They don't and at least 11 teams in the league are cash strapped because the team is a significant portion of the owner's incomes. For teams like Green Bay that is not privately owned income is critical to operate and right now there is nearly zero income.

Needless to say, this will be very interesting.

I've seen the general math reported on no gate revenue for NFL teams...DAL, by far and NE seem to pay a higher price than most teams for losing the gate....the avg seems to be around 30% drop around the league according to the article I saw a week or so ago.

Owner reserves...NFL owners have been making operating profits for years...where's the reserves?

Just looking at this in a simple way...clearly the model around most pro sports leagues is the gate revenue + TV + other.

If the owners don't have an emergency provision in these contracts...assuming they play the games if you are committed to $165 mil in salaries in '21...aren't they bound to $165 mil?

I wouldn't be that concerned about a cash strapped owner for one season...they have access to lines of credit, etc. should they need it. But if we're talking about no fans in stands in '21 as well...then I think some owners will start to feel the pinch.

 

[BigKen]

If the owners don't have an emergency provision in these contracts...assuming they play the games if you are committed to $165 mil in salaries in '21...aren't they bound to $165 mil?

If a team is committed to $190M in salaries for 2020 and the season is played, they are required to pay that money regardless of the gate or revenues. A 30% loss in revenue equals a 30% loss in the cap. Simple math says that's a drop from $198.2M to $138.74M. That will be the 2021 Cap number. $138,740,000. That's a hell of a hit. If the league and NFLPA agree to spread that over three years at $168.5M for 2021 and then $144M for 2022 and on to $135M for 2023, that could work if the revenues increase and there is an annual adjustment. The problem is that there may not be a vaccine or cure by 2022 and it could be equally as bad or even worse. No matter what, the NFL is going to take a massive hit and so are the players pockets.

If players are not willing to renegotiate their contracts, then they will get cut. The money available to sign them will certainly no be out there. We're talking about the guys making between $8M and $20M really getting smacked. The guys below that will have to worry about keeping a job because cutting a $5M contract will be the the order of the day.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

If a team is committed to $190M in salaries for 2020 and the season is played, they are required to pay that money regardless of the gate or revenues. A 30% loss in revenue equals a 30% loss in the cap. Simple math says that's a drop from $198.2M to $138.74M. That will be the 2021 Cap number. $138,740,000. That's a hell of a hit. If the league and NFLPA agree to spread that over three years at $168.5M for 2021 and then $144M for 2022 and on to $135M for 2023, that could work if the revenues increase and there is an annual adjustment. The problem is that there may not be a vaccine or cure by 2022 and it could be equally as bad or even worse. No matter what, the NFL is going to take a massive hit and so are the players pockets.

If players are not willing to renegotiate their contracts, then they will get cut. The money available to sign them will certainly no be out there. We're talking about the guys making between $8M and $20M really getting smacked. The guys below that will have to worry about keeping a job because cutting a $5M contract will be the the order of the day.

Okay...we'll use your '21 cap....$138.7mil...just using them as an ex. PIT has a projected '21 cap $186.8 mil...$48 mil over the cap.

The vast majority of the teams would be over the cap...I think CIN and maybe 1 or 2 other teams would be somewhat close to $138.7 mil.

What happens now for '21. In this ex. the Rooneys are holding contracts valued at $186.8 mil with a cap of $138.7 mil...it's not realistic to cut $48 mil off the payroll without cutting key players. Even if they could, the dead money would literally own their cap the next season.

Renegotiate...the owners would almost certainly approach the players about reworking contracts but the owners would probably lock the players out, or vote to go uncapped before they would lose their best players to a pandemic influenced cap.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

So basically the entire league is in a Lev Bell situation

Play this year, get your money and maybe not get as much as you want next year OR sit out this year, hope for the best case scenario next year and if you dont get it youre fucked anyway

Seems like an easy decision to me

Not sure about the Bell analogy fitting, but I get your point.

Bell sat out a $14+mil tag season thinking he was ensuring his health for a mega contract the next yr...next yr he got a good contract, but not the mega deal he was seeking.

He's never going to get the $14 mil he left on the table back, but assuming there is a season...he will have cashed $27 mil...even though he fucked up sitting out, that's still not too bad.

 

[rmilia1]

Not sure about the Bell analogy fitting, but I get your point.

Bell sat out a $14+mil tag season thinking he was ensuring his health for a mega contract the next yr...next yr he got a good contract, but not the mega deal he was seeking.

He's never going to get the $14 mil he left on the table back, but assuming there is a season...he will have cashed $27 mil...even though he fucked up sitting out, that's still not too bad.

Well thars my point. No reason to sit out a season and lose a years salary. Even if the cap goes down 50% next year youd rather get 1.5 years salary than 1 years salary. And assuming there will be a vaxx next year is really dumb. The odds of that are really low

 

[Debbie Does]

If they keep supporting violence, looting and arson, they won't have to worry about my opinion.

Then again, they never did worry about my opinion.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

If they keep supporting violence, looting and arson, they won't have to worry about my opinion.

Then again, they never did worry about my opinion.

I support violence against Looters & Arsonists.