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How good is your #1 starter - 2017 edition

Discussion in 'MLB Baseball Forum' started by StanMarsh51, Dec 21, 2017.

  1. StanMarsh51

    StanMarsh51 Well-Known Member

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    Been doing this for several years and posting it on here, where the goal was to get an aggregate listing of each team's best starter (#1), 2nd best starter (#2), 3rd best starter (#3) for a single season and finding what the average #1, #2, #3 starter looks like.

    The goal isn't necessarily to argue whether pitcher X on a team was better than pitcher Y on that team, because in numerous cases it was close (where it wasn't an easy choice picking one guy over another), and keep in mind that if two guys are close and one was listed as a #1 for his team and the other #2, switching them around probably changes very little on the league averages (so arguing many of these would be splitting hairs)

    Two other notes before reading the list:
    1) I tried to impose an innings limit where applicable. For instance, if a team had a pitcher with 200 innings and then a guy with 100 innings, I had a hard time justifying the 100 inning guy above the 200 inning guy, even if his rate stats were a lot better.
    2) If a guy was traded midseason, I tried to put him on the team he pitched the most innings for, with some exceptions.

    For 2017, the average #1 starter went 13-9 with a 3.51 ERA (129 ERA+), 181 innings, and 1.17 WHIP. Individual players listed below and league averages at the bottom of the table.


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  2. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    For the Reds, I think there is an assumption that Castillo is the No. 1 starter because, all in all, people are WISHING that is true. He's probably the best overall pitcher they have but to say he's the No. 1 starter is just a product of having one of the worst pitching staffs in modern history.

    For the rest of the rotation, it's hard to tell since 2 of the 5 predicted starters have spent most of last year in rehab. That will NOT yield a quality season.
     
  3. Rock Strongo

    Rock Strongo Huge Dick

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    chris sale is awesome

    thru 25 starts
     
  4. StanMarsh51

    StanMarsh51 Well-Known Member

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    Yea, Castillo was the #1 starter by default because the rotation was so bad in 2017....nobody on the pitching staff threw 125+ innings, and Castillo was the only one of the 8 pitchers to make 10+ starts to have an ERA under 4.40
     
  5. Tapey

    Tapey Mariners and Kings fan, fuck me right?

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    James Paxton is legit, now if only he would stop ghosting us
     
  6. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Good work Stan, love these
     
  7. The Q

    The Q KFFL's GOAT

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    This is great work.
     
  8. The Q

    The Q KFFL's GOAT

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    I was hoping to pry Castillo from the Marlins for Buchholz when the Marlins were buying in 2016.

    I always had a thing for him when he was a prospect
     
  9. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    ERA in Cincy is going to be skewed from time to time in the summer months unless the guy is a great ground ball pitcher. It was so hard to tell, though, with that team. Starters struggling to go 4 innings and a bullpen that started out OK and was gassed by August. When a manager has to use AAAA pitchers for his rotation, man that can be brutal. Best pitcher on the team closes games on a team that loses 94 times.
    But we are all entitled to be optimistic in December, right?
     
  10. StanMarsh51

    StanMarsh51 Well-Known Member

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    We all know that starters are not going as deep into games, but to quantify it, here is what the innings stats were for #1 starters in 2012 (when I first did this) compared to 2017...

    Average innings:
    2012 - 204
    2017 - 181

    Number of #1 starters with 215+ innings:
    2012 - 9
    2017 - 0

    Number of #1 starters with 200+ innings:
    2012 - 18
    2017 - 11

    Number of #1 starters with 180+ innings:
    2012 - 27
    2017 - 17
     
  11. SlinkyRedfoot

    SlinkyRedfoot Well-Known Member

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    He's a bad motherfucker. When his back isn't barking.
     
  12. The Q

    The Q KFFL's GOAT

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    Teams are getting smarter about the 3rd time through the order stuff.

    But it's been happening forever. It's just that back then, usually the starter was still the better option.

    now with 5 guys throwing 95+ in basically every bullpen, it's not necessarily the case.
     
  13. Clayton

    Clayton Well-Known Member

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    I would say that I expect better things out of Carlos Martinez next year but his WHIP is pretty consistent. He gave up more HRs than I'd like but that could be a combination of things considering everyone was giving up HRs last year.
     
  14. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    So let's say you are the front office of a big-league team, assuming you are dense enough to come on a Hoop board and discuss this topic with me ... and you know that every team's bullpen is loading up. Even if the starter only lasts 5, the 6-7-8-9 guys are getting better and better and better ... and you want to counteract that by improving your offense, what do you do?
     
  15. navamind

    navamind Well-Known Member

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    His HR/FB rate spiked from 10.6% in 2015-16 to 16.4% in 2017. I'd expect that to regress next year.
     
  16. redseat

    redseat Well-Known Member

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    Jason Vargas had 18 wins?!? wow
     
  17. Clayton

    Clayton Well-Known Member

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    He started the year hot and then cooled off. IIRC he was the only Royal who started hot.

    Amazingly his run support wasn't that good but Royals were good in tight games last year. Not a good outlook for KC next year
     
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  18. DragonfromTO

    DragonfromTO Well-Known Member

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    It's obviously more complicated than a one post answer but one simple thing that probably helps on offense is trying to reduce platoon splits so that your lineup isn't as vulnerable when the bullpen parade starts.

    It's not the same of course, but I know that in sim league the best/easiest offenses I've had have been balanced like that. This year I've got a balanced, superstar outfield (Cespedes-Springer-Stanton) and an all-platoon, good but vulnerable infield and I'm real nervous about how that's gonna handle against dominant bullpens in a short series. As that stretches out and becomes more common over full seasons it's gonna get even more difficult to manage.
     
  19. DragonfromTO

    DragonfromTO Well-Known Member

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    Still a little surprised that he rates better than Duffy here, even with the good start.