Homer

[JohnU]

Krall is saying Bailey will get 2 starts at L-ville and will rejoin the rotation.
Not sure how they arrived at this other than the contract hammer.
It also suggests Harvey is going to be dealt.

 

[eburg5000]

It also suggests Harvey is going to be dealt.

You can probably add at least 10 more loses to the Reds total

 

[JohnU]

You can probably add at least 10 more loses to the Reds total

he might not get that many starts, but yeah ... brutal

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Every week the story changes on Homer. He's going to the pen. He's going to the DL. He's on rehab assignment. He's back on the DL. He's back on rehab. He's in the pen. He's back in the rotation.

The only thing that has become clear is he's calling the shots.

 

[JohnU]

Every week the story changes on Homer. He's going to the pen. He's going to the DL. He's on rehab assignment. He's back on the DL. He's back on rehab. He's in the pen. He's back in the rotation.

The only thing that has become clear is he's calling the shots.

Timing on 2 starts at Lville and 5 more days in Cincy would be abour right for the end of July when Harvey will be moved. That isn't a guess on Harvey unless he's made a deal. I think Harvey is going to LA Angels, who have zero pitchers now.

 

[JohnU]

Also noted that Houston demoted its closer in deference to a Double A guy. I think Iglesias looks good on that score for a trade.

 

[eburg5000]

If the Reds kept Harvey, don't they get a extra high round draft pick when he leaves. I'm not sure how that works, Might be better than trading Harvey if they do

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds wouldn't get compensation for Harvey due to him being acquired during the regular season. A player has to be on your roster the entire season to qualify.

Harvey helped the Reds win a few games and he currently has more trade value than Mesoraco. So I'd say if flipping him at the deadline was the plan all along it may pay off.

Harvey wouldn't be very expensive for the team acquiring him, but the Reds sent a pretty good chunk of cash to the Mets for him. So I hope they get a descent prospect if they trade him.

 

[eburg5000]

The Reds wouldn't get compensation for Harvey due to him being acquired during the regular season. A player has to be on your roster the entire season to qualify.

Thanks , I wasn't sure how that worked.

 

[eburg5000]

Homer had 10 or 11 strikeouts last night, but gave 4 earned runs. And it looks like he will be by the 22nd

 

[JohnU]

Homer had 10 or 11 strikeouts last night, but gave 4 earned runs. And it looks like he will be by the 22nd

Nah, he can get AAA hitters out in July.
His big-league return will be as expected. If he lasts 3 innings it's because they didn't get somebody warmed up in time.

 

[eburg5000]

I'm just trying to be optimistic, because pm less than 2 weeks, He's going to be the guy. Also they will be no more Harvey to give the Reds 6 or 7 good innings. Probably won't have Igesias either. The Reds might get a good starting pitching prospect for him'

I think the Reds need at least 2 more good starters to compete over a full season One if Harvey stays. which is a pipe dream

 

[JohnU]

I'm just trying to be optimistic, because pm less than 2 weeks, He's going to be the guy. Also they will be no more Harvey to give the Reds 6 or 7 good innings. Probably won't have Igesias either. The Reds might get a good starting pitching prospect for him'

I think the Reds need at least 2 more good starters to compete over a full season One if Harvey stays. which is a pipe dream

If anybody tries to sell that pitching line as an improvement, I have a Ford Granada on blocks in the back yard that would run with tires and a tuneup.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I've always been in the minority when it comes to extending players nearing free agency. Once a player is a year from free agency his agent and everyone else already have a pretty good idea of their value. Homer is what happens when you decide to extend a pending free agent. You pay the premium and get pot luck.

Homer had success early on this season. He allowed 1 ER in 3 of his first 4 outings and quality starts in 4 of his first 5 starts. From there forward his performance went south.

Homer's struggles are similiar to Harvey's, but for different reasons. Harvey has gotten better as his slider has gained depth and command. Harvey looks healthy and has improved with repetition. But I wouldn't sign Harvey either. I'm sure he's not looking for a club friendly contract.

Homer's slider hasn't improved as the season has worn on. A sore knee is as good of a reason as any for losing velocity and effectiveness of his slider. It's what we saw with Scott Feldman last year and Alfredo Simon the year before. If the knee hurts they can't extend and execute properly. If Homer's knee is a chronic condition his poor performance is going to be the norm. He may initially pitch better if well rested, but performance will decline if the soreness returns.

 

[JohnU]

I've always been in the minority when it comes to extending players nearing free agency. Once a player is a year from free agency his agent and everyone else already have a pretty good idea of their value. Homer is what happens when you decide to extend a pending free agent. You pay the premium and get pot luck.

Homer had success early on this season. He allowed 1 ER in 3 of his first 4 outings and quality starts in 4 of his first 5 starts. From there forward his performance went south.

Homer's struggles are similiar to Harvey's, but for different reasons. Harvey has gotten better as his slider has gained depth and command. Harvey looks healthy and has improved with repetition. But I wouldn't sign Harvey either. I'm sure he's not looking for a club friendly contract.

Homer's slider hasn't improved as the season has worn on. A sore knee is as good of a reason as any for losing velocity and effectiveness of his slider. It's what we saw with Scott Feldman last year and Alfredo Simon the year before. If the knee hurts they can't extend and execute properly. If Homer's knee is a chronic condition his poor performance is going to be the norm. He may initially pitch better if well rested, but performance will decline if the soreness returns.

Yeah, I fear the Trojan horse ... the FO thinking all is well and by the middle of August, realize that the 6.85 ERA is the benchmark for a guyi giving up 2 HR every 9.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

If Homer was in his last year of the contract the Reds would probably cut bait, but there's probably some misguided hope that has sprung from Harvey's resurgence. They may be clinging to the hope Bailey could regain some trade value heading into the 2019 trade deadline. The money is already spent, so unless they find a way to recoup something it's all lost money.

Even if they could trade Homer next July they'd most likely have to send cash to the other team. Essentially they'd be buying a prospect and throwing Homer in for good measure.

I hope the Reds aren't hinging their future success on this sort of thinking.

 

[JohnU]

Using Bailey for the duration would be prudent if the team had not suddenly come to life. That's a fan issue and a team morale issue. If they were controlling innings, also that would matter. But they aren't to any degree that can't be fixed with Sept. callups.

Bailey isn't going to work in the bullpen and Riggleman will probably lose his base of leverage over it.

I can see somebody signing Homer to a deal on the 2019 deadline.

 

[eburg5000]

Harvey gave the Reds some wins and some innings, more than they would have had if we didn't get him. Plus we will get a few prospects for him, The down side is that the Reds will be losing what he could have given us the rest of the way.

 

[JohnU]

Harvey IS a good pitcher.
Not elite now, but he's also not Jason Marquis.
Reds made a nice deal getting him.

 

[eburg5000]

Well I figure he might get 2 more starts with the Reds, Then maybe not because I think he will go pretty fast, to a contending team who needs a starter