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The greatest satisfaction from a fantasy football draft is picking a team that goes on to win a fantasy football championship. There are many contenders for the second greatest satisfaction from a fantasy football draft, but high on that list is what I call the home run sleeper pick.
Home run sleeper picks are those sleeper picks that don't just develop into starters but have the ability to turn into starters capable of converting losses into wins. This definition naturally limits the list of candidates, but it does make any candidate who makes the list very worthy of a draft pick.
Here are my four biggest home run sleepers for the 2014 season:
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
There are myriad indicators pointing toward Cooks being the favorite to win the offensive rookie of the year award. He was the fastest player among the top wide receivers in this year's NFL draft, has been dominant in training camp and had a highlight-reel play in his first preseason game.
In addition, the Saints have the most favorable pass defense schedule in the league this year -- as I detailed in my story on Drew Brees as the top fantasy QB -- and should be throwing the ball a ton.
Cooks is currently valued as a WR5, but under these circumstances, he could end up being the most dominant rookie wide receiver since Julio Jones and A.J. Green in 2011. Don't hesitate to take Cooks as a WR3, as his stock is quickly rising.
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers
Green saw only 29 targets last year, but the numbers he posted on those attempts were awe-inspiring. He racked up 16.6 yards per attempt on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), 22.6 YPA on stretch vertical passes (attempts thrown 20 or more yards downfield) and a 14.4 overall YPA.
Had he posted three more targets and ended up as a season-ending qualifier, his VYPA and overall YPA would have been tops among tight ends and his SVYPA would have ranked fourth. More notably, those figures were all higher than the YPA numbers posted by Antonio Gates (11.1 VYPA, 11.4 SVYPA, 8.2 overall YPA).
That could lead to Green becoming the No. 1 tight end in San Diego's offense. If that happens -- and he continues to post YPA totals anywhere near what he posted last year -- he would be a high-end TE1.
Bryce Brown, RB, Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson had a very good 2013 season from a fantasy football perspective (175 points, ranked tied for 10th among RBs), but he was one of the worst ball carriers in the good blocking yards per attempt metric. GBYPA measures how productive a rusher is when given good blocking, which is loosely defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt. Jackson's 6.2 GBYPA last year ranked tied for 38th out of 47 running backs who had at least 100 rush attempts.
By contrast, Brown is coming off two straight campaigns with superb GBYPA totals. In 2012, he ranked second in the league with a 9.8-yard mark in this category. In 2013, he fell 25 carries short of being a season-ending qualifier, but his 9.5 GBYPA would have ranked sixth had he qualified.
As good as Jackson has been, Buffalo isn't going to keep giving him the ball if he can't produce larger gains. Coach Doug Marrone also recently noted that he prefers to lean on two running backs rather than spread the workload out among three or more backs. This means that if the Bills decide Brown has more upside than Jackson, Brown won't just move into a running back-by-committee situation; he would be a platoon back who is likely to get in the range of 200 or more carries. If that workload volume is combined with a high GBYPA, Brown could end up as a high-end RB2.
Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans
Locker's 2013 season may not look like much at first glance; he played in only seven games. He suffered a season-ending injury in one of those contests and posted negative-three points in that game. Locker also got out of the gate with a mediocre five-point showing in Week 1.
Even with those factors working against him, Locker averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. Prorate that over a 16-game season and it would equal 210 points, which is low-end QB2 territory. If the injury-shortened game that ended his season is taken out of the equation, his 16-game prorated point total would be 253 points, or low-end QB1 territory.
Locker may be an injury waiting to happen, but if he stays healthy and continues last year's pace -- or potentially improves with the development of Justin Hunter as a vertical threat -- Locker could end up being the most valuable late-round draft pick in two-quarterback leagues.
Brandin Cooks among home run sleepers in 2014 - fantasy football - Fantasy Football - ESPN
Home run sleeper picks are those sleeper picks that don't just develop into starters but have the ability to turn into starters capable of converting losses into wins. This definition naturally limits the list of candidates, but it does make any candidate who makes the list very worthy of a draft pick.
Here are my four biggest home run sleepers for the 2014 season:
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
There are myriad indicators pointing toward Cooks being the favorite to win the offensive rookie of the year award. He was the fastest player among the top wide receivers in this year's NFL draft, has been dominant in training camp and had a highlight-reel play in his first preseason game.
In addition, the Saints have the most favorable pass defense schedule in the league this year -- as I detailed in my story on Drew Brees as the top fantasy QB -- and should be throwing the ball a ton.
Cooks is currently valued as a WR5, but under these circumstances, he could end up being the most dominant rookie wide receiver since Julio Jones and A.J. Green in 2011. Don't hesitate to take Cooks as a WR3, as his stock is quickly rising.
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers
Green saw only 29 targets last year, but the numbers he posted on those attempts were awe-inspiring. He racked up 16.6 yards per attempt on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), 22.6 YPA on stretch vertical passes (attempts thrown 20 or more yards downfield) and a 14.4 overall YPA.
Had he posted three more targets and ended up as a season-ending qualifier, his VYPA and overall YPA would have been tops among tight ends and his SVYPA would have ranked fourth. More notably, those figures were all higher than the YPA numbers posted by Antonio Gates (11.1 VYPA, 11.4 SVYPA, 8.2 overall YPA).
That could lead to Green becoming the No. 1 tight end in San Diego's offense. If that happens -- and he continues to post YPA totals anywhere near what he posted last year -- he would be a high-end TE1.
Bryce Brown, RB, Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson had a very good 2013 season from a fantasy football perspective (175 points, ranked tied for 10th among RBs), but he was one of the worst ball carriers in the good blocking yards per attempt metric. GBYPA measures how productive a rusher is when given good blocking, which is loosely defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt. Jackson's 6.2 GBYPA last year ranked tied for 38th out of 47 running backs who had at least 100 rush attempts.
By contrast, Brown is coming off two straight campaigns with superb GBYPA totals. In 2012, he ranked second in the league with a 9.8-yard mark in this category. In 2013, he fell 25 carries short of being a season-ending qualifier, but his 9.5 GBYPA would have ranked sixth had he qualified.
As good as Jackson has been, Buffalo isn't going to keep giving him the ball if he can't produce larger gains. Coach Doug Marrone also recently noted that he prefers to lean on two running backs rather than spread the workload out among three or more backs. This means that if the Bills decide Brown has more upside than Jackson, Brown won't just move into a running back-by-committee situation; he would be a platoon back who is likely to get in the range of 200 or more carries. If that workload volume is combined with a high GBYPA, Brown could end up as a high-end RB2.
Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans
Locker's 2013 season may not look like much at first glance; he played in only seven games. He suffered a season-ending injury in one of those contests and posted negative-three points in that game. Locker also got out of the gate with a mediocre five-point showing in Week 1.
Even with those factors working against him, Locker averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. Prorate that over a 16-game season and it would equal 210 points, which is low-end QB2 territory. If the injury-shortened game that ended his season is taken out of the equation, his 16-game prorated point total would be 253 points, or low-end QB1 territory.
Locker may be an injury waiting to happen, but if he stays healthy and continues last year's pace -- or potentially improves with the development of Justin Hunter as a vertical threat -- Locker could end up being the most valuable late-round draft pick in two-quarterback leagues.
Brandin Cooks among home run sleepers in 2014 - fantasy football - Fantasy Football - ESPN
