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Has a team ever made a unexpected draft that panned out

flyerhawk

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So you're talking about someone who was picked a good bit earlier than projected and actually ended up living up to that earlier pick despite everyone being surprised they were picked that high.

Yeah, that's a lot tougher. We can probably all give a list of guys who were picked where projected and didn't live up to it. So, someone like Kobe who was picked 13th and exceeded that draft projection wouldn't count because that's where he was expected to go.

Exactly.

Basically I was wondering if anyone has ever defied the wisdom of crowds when it comes to NBA draft picks.
 

trojanfan12

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Exactly.

Basically I was wondering if anyone has ever defied the wisdom of crowds when it comes to NBA draft picks.

Yeah, that's really tough. Can't think of anyone yet.
 

YourFriendGannon

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Basically I was wondering if anyone has ever defied the wisdom of crowds when it comes to NBA draft picks.
I don't know there are many teams that would have drafted Giannis where the Bucks did in spite of hindsight stories you hear about teams that may have wanted to trade into the mid-teens - there are so many possibilities teams do their diligence on. And even if there were, he still fits what you're initially describing. The best modern example is Giannis.
 

flyerhawk

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I don't know there are many teams that would have drafted Giannis where the Bucks did in spite of hindsight stories you hear about teams that may have wanted to trade into the mid-teens - there are so many possibilities teams do their diligence on. And even if there were, he still fits what you're initially describing. The best modern example is Giannis.

yeah but he was projected to be a 1st round pick. Going 16 or 24 isn't really a huge difference.
 

Picklerick 2.0

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I don't know there are many teams that would have drafted Giannis where the Bucks did in spite of hindsight stories you hear about teams that may have wanted to trade into the mid-teens - there are so many possibilities teams do their diligence on. And even if there were, he still fits what you're initially describing. The best modern example is Giannis.
But he exceded draft expectations. The question is who was picked extremely high, despite the nba world going wtf? And that player actually proving them wrong. I think Dan Marley is honestly the only one i can think of.
 

The Q

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Eh, not really that I can think of. Most prospects are scouted pretty well in basketball so you don't see many reaches. That doesn't mean they'll turn out well and warrant their pick. I'm just saying most have a good idea of what range they'll be drafted so you don't really get that shocking pick.

Best I can fit a player to that of late is maybe Jaylen Brown. He wasn't talked about much early on as much of the focus was centered around Simmons and Ingram. But even then, Brown still shot up draft boards late, usually somewhere in the top 5, so it wasn't a surprise when he went 3rd.

brown was a projected top 10 pick, 3 may have been surprising but there was no consensus after the top 2
 

Sparhawk

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yeah but he was projected to be a 1st round pick. Going 16 or 24 isn't really a huge difference.
I don't think they expected this from Giannis.
That would have been my pick for most unexpected value.

After that, maybe Manu?
Or some other foreign prospect like Kukoc that came over and made an instant impact.
 

Wamu

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I don't think they expected this from Giannis.
That would have been my pick for most unexpected value.

After that, maybe Manu?
Or some other foreign prospect like Kukoc that came over and made an instant impact.

Manu was picked 57th. His teammate Tony Parker was picked 28th. Nikola Jokic was picked 41st. And Kukoc was picked 29th.
 

The Q

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I don't think they expected this from Giannis.
That would have been my pick for most unexpected value.

After that, maybe Manu?
Or some other foreign prospect like Kukoc that came over and made an instant impact.

I recall during the draft they said many saw giannis with the biggest upside in the whole draft, but one of the biggest downsides
 

flyerhawk

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I don't think they expected this from Giannis.
That would have been my pick for most unexpected value.

After that, maybe Manu?
Or some other foreign prospect like Kukoc that came over and made an instant impact.

That isn't what I'm asking though.

When the Cavs drafted Anthony Bennett the collective basketball world said "What? Why?" and within 2 years we understood the folly of their decision to go against conventional wisdom.

I'm asking if there has ever been a pick that was wildly outside of conventional wisdom that actually paid off?
 

flyerhawk

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Manu was picked 57th. His teammate Tony Parker was picked 28th. Nikola Jokic was picked 41st. And Kukoc was picked 29th.

Those are examples of players where conventional wisdom was wrong. There are LOTS of examples of that.
 
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I know the 2006 draft was pretty poor in hindsight but there were a few surprises.

Bargnani at #1 was a pretty big surprise

Adam Morrison at #3 was a surprise because he was one of the top college players that year and his career in the big leagues never took off.

Kyle Lowry at #24 was a good pick up seeing the amount of bad players went above him
 

Sparhawk

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That isn't what I'm asking though.

When the Cavs drafted Anthony Bennett the collective basketball world said "What? Why?" and within 2 years we understood the folly of their decision to go against conventional wisdom.

I'm asking if there has ever been a pick that was wildly outside of conventional wisdom that actually paid off?
It's a tricky ask because 'conventional wisdom' is subjective.

I still think Giannis was a gamble that started this current trend of taking long, freakishly athletic talents and hope they pan out.

What about undrafted players like Duncan Robinson?
 

dtgold88

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Wouldn't we say Klay and Steph are both playing above their draft slot?
He probably answered this, but I don't think that's what he meant. Guessing he meant where a team picked a guy well before where he was expected to go and worked out.
 

dtgold88

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That isn't really what I am asking. Klay, Steph and Draymond ALL exceeded their draft expectations. Lots of players vastly exceeded their draft slot. Willis reed and Dennis Rodman were 2nd round picks. Pretty sure they exceeded expectations

But nobody went "Huh?" when they were drafted where they were drafted but actually turned out ok. Unlike Anthony Bennett or Andrea Bargnani or Frederick Weiss. Those guys were drafted and the entire basketball world collectively said "seriously"?
I get what you are asking and no one comes to mind right away......Might be wrong, but thought Bargnani was expected to go at or near #1.
 

trojanfan12

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It's a tricky ask because 'conventional wisdom' is subjective.

I still think Giannis was a gamble that started this current trend of taking long, freakishly athletic talents and hope they pan out.

What about undrafted players like Duncan Robinson?

It's more like...What if Anthony Bennett had become an all star? kind of question.

As @flyerhawk said when Bennett was taken number one...the collective response was "WTF?" But then he becomes an all star instead of the bust he was. That's what he's looking for.
 

dtgold88

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Eh, not really that I can think of. Most prospects are scouted pretty well in basketball so you don't see many reaches. That doesn't mean they'll turn out well and warrant their pick. I'm just saying most have a good idea of what range they'll be drafted so you don't really get that shocking pick.

Best I can fit a player to that of late is maybe Jaylen Brown. He wasn't talked about much early on as much of the focus was centered around Simmons and Ingram. But even then, Brown still shot up draft boards late, usually somewhere in the top 5, so it wasn't a surprise when he went 3rd.
I think NBA draft board holds to form because they are afraid of being second guessed.
 

dtgold88

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Exactly.

Basically I was wondering if anyone has ever defied the wisdom of crowds when it comes to NBA draft picks.
Right....probably happens a lot in NFL but no one comes to mind in the NBA

was looking back at some drafts and no one comes to mind. also cannot say I recall where guys were mocked to go as well as I might have for NFL draft

Looking back at the Bargnani draft I don't think he was a headscratcher at 1. Pretty sure was expected. what an awful draft that was (at least the top 10)
 

Sparhawk

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It's more like...What if Anthony Bennett had become an all star? kind of question.

As @flyerhawk said when Bennett was taken number one...the collective response was "WTF?" But then he becomes an all star instead of the bust he was. That's what he's looking for.
Technically, every pick has 'upside'.

I suppose going against conventional wisdom now would be to take a short wingspan player and get solid production out of them?
 

trojanfan12

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Technically, every pick has 'upside'.

I suppose going against conventional wisdom now would be to take a short wingspan player and get solid production out of them?

Yep.

Or a traditional "back to the basket" center who is a dominant player.
 
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