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Harper Reported Will Sign With Phils $400 Mill

PolarVortex

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Shit in one hand, hope in the other. They'd have to wait at least one more full season, and possibly two, depending on what the Angels do

Plus, even if they sign Harper at $35M, they don't have much else long-term deals. They could still chase Trout in 2020, if the Angels can't sign him.
Depends on how high they are willing to run up the payroll. They have a stable full of young pitchers that will need extensions, along with Realmuto and Hoskins.
 

PolarVortex

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Everybody studies advanced metrics these days and Harper hasn't done anything special on the WAR front since 2015 (which was an incredible season, to be sure).
2017 was going great until he blew out his knee, last year he didn't hit especially well when he needed to step up for the big contract and he also played horrendous defense going by eye as well as the metrics.
Anybody who signs him for huge bucks as taking the risk of paying him for a great 2015 and not much else.
Saving the huge bucks for Trout is a smart play, the guy is great EVERY YEAR.
Yep. After the 2015 season most people had him on par with Trout as to who was best player. Since then, 2 of last 3 years have been uninspiring for a $30 mill/year guy. Trout, on the other hand remains solid and consistent even if a bit fragile. At the same annual salary, I'd rather have Trout for 120 games than Harper for 160.
 

Guy Incognito

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Everybody studies advanced metrics these days and Harper hasn't done anything special on the WAR front since 2015 (which was an incredible season, to be sure).
2017 was going great until he blew out his knee, last year he didn't hit especially well when he needed to step up for the big contract and he also played horrendous defense going by eye as well as the metrics.
Anybody who signs him for huge bucks as taking the risk of paying him for a great 2015 and not much else.
Saving the huge bucks for Trout is a smart play, the guy is great EVERY YEAR.
Save money for a guy who you can't negotiate with for at
Yep. After the 2015 season most people had him on par with Trout as to who was best player. Since then, 2 of last 3 years have been uninspiring for a $30 mill/year guy. Trout, on the other hand remains solid and consistent even if a bit fragile. At the same annual salary, I'd rather have Trout for 120 games than Harper for 160.
Way to go out on a limb there.

"Give me the best player in our lifetimes over another guy."
 

PolarVortex

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Save money for a guy who you can't negotiate with for at

Way to go out on a limb there.

"Give me the best player in our lifetimes over another guy."
Why not? The Phillies may be the only team that has a chance to lure Trout away from the Angels. I'd put the Dodgers at a distant second. In Harper you are talking about a minimum $300 million invest for a guy who failed to hit .250 in two of the last three seasons. And in 3 of his 6 full seasons, he only played 118 games or less. He's averaged 131 games played per year in his six seasons as a starter. If he continues that average you will be paying him over $230,000 per game and $50,000-$60,000 per at bat.

Waiting a couple years and taking a long shot with Trout is a better option. Harper is going to disappoint his new suitors at a Louis Pujols level.
 

Guy Incognito

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Why not? The Phillies may be the only team that has a chance to lure Trout away from the Angels. I'd put the Dodgers at a distant second. In Harper you are talking about a minimum $300 million invest for a guy who failed to hit .250 in two of the last three seasons. And in 3 of his 6 full seasons, he only played 118 games or less. He's averaged 131 games played per year in his six seasons as a starter. If he continues that average you will be paying him over $230,000 per game and $50,000-$60,000 per at bat.

Waiting a couple years and taking a long shot with Trout is a better option. Harper is going to disappoint his new suitors at a Louis Pujols level.
Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Trout than Harper too. Trout is already arguably the second greatest CF to play the game, and is probably going to get better.

For all Harper's warts, he's a potential Hall of Fame talent available prior to his baseball prime. Sure, the last few years of his contract almost certainly will not square with his production, but you'd be paying the guy at age 36, not at age 41, like Pujols is currently on the books until. Pujols was at least above average as a hitter at 36.

Give someone the choice between the two, and anyone who isn't a retard takes Trout. It's like the difference between Mays and Hank Greenberg. Right now, though, the Phillies aren't in an either/or situation. Harper is the only player that's available.
 

PolarVortex

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Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Trout than Harper too. Trout is already arguably the second greatest CF to play the game, and is probably going to get better.

For all Harper's warts, he's a potential Hall of Fame talent available prior to his baseball prime. Sure, the last few years of his contract almost certainly will not square with his production, but you'd be paying the guy at age 36, not at age 41, like Pujols is currently on the books until. Pujols was at least above average as a hitter at 36.

Give someone the choice between the two, and anyone who isn't a retard takes Trout. It's like the difference between Mays and Hank Greenberg. Right now, though, the Phillies aren't in an either/or situation. Harper is the only player that's available.
Yeah, I just think the risk is too big. I'd agree that the Phjils need a bit more offense to keep up with Atlanta and possibly the Mets. But they could throw some money at Marwin Gonzales or try to get Adam Jones on a one year deal. Wait til next to sign any more long term deals. Next year you can choose between Goldschmidt, Arenado, Bogaerts, Rendon, Donaldson, and Gennett.
 

Indrid Cold

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Save money for a guy who you can't negotiate with for at
I think we all know Trout's free agency is two years off. I don't see the Angels extending him as being more than a 0.1% likelihood.
Trout could certainly suffer some kind of horrible injury that ruins his career in that time and maybe the Phils end up competing with the Cubs, Yanks, and Bosox for him after 2020 if he keeps on keeping on. They do have a sort of hometown advantage, though.
The thing is, the last three years tell us Harper is a big question mark and maybe you cripple your franchise by throwing stupid money at him. He wasn't much above replacement level last year, which is not average but the point at which a player is expendable. Maybe his defense was so bad because his knee is permanently fucked after the base slip in 2017?
Harper is a bigtime crapshoot, no question...is he really worth signing if you're not playing with house money?[
 

jvett77

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2018 Performance and Salary Perspective (vs Harper $35M, '19 est.) Very interesting.

_______TPA__Hits___Runs__BB____HR__RBI____SO___BA/OBP___WAR__Salary
Santana_679__128___82___110___24___86____93__.229/.352___1.7__$18M
Harper__695__137__103___130___34__100___169__.249/.393___1.3__$21M
Trout___608__147__101___122___39___79___124__.312/.460__10.2__$34M
 

Orlando Eagles

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I’ve been slowly coming to this....listening to things like The Good Phight podcast and hearing the panic now to just get Harper signed or it’s all a failure.

I....disagree. If they pay big for Harper I will get behind it and rout for the best. But if not they still improved the team this year and could still bring in a good name yet. And then the FA class next year....wow. Sure, there will be big money teams spending next year, but we can be one of those too.

I’m fine with the team holding to their valuation of Harper, and if it chases him off that’s fine too. It’s not a bad thing in this game.
 

SU Nittany Tide

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Harper is supposed to announce 3 minutes before the machado press conference today.....
 

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I’ve been slowly coming to this....listening to things like The Good Phight podcast and hearing the panic now to just get Harper signed or it’s all a failure.

I....disagree. If they pay big for Harper I will get behind it and rout for the best. But if not they still improved the team this year and could still bring in a good name yet. And then the FA class next year....wow. Sure, there will be big money teams spending next year, but we can be one of those too.

I’m fine with the team holding to their valuation of Harper, and if it chases him off that’s fine too. It’s not a bad thing in this game.
I agree.

Team is significantly better than it was last year. Harper would push this team from a playoff contender to an odds-on favorite to win the pennant, but it's not like this team has no shot without him.
 

BigKen

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Bryce Harper Rumors: Thursday

By Steve Adams | February 21, 2019 at 9:55pm CDT

Now that Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres has been announced, Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras have a definitive bar to attempt to clear as they seek a record-setting contract of their own. Yesterday’s slate of rumors on Harper had a series of updates on how the Phillies, Nats, White Sox and Giants view the former NL MVP now that Machado is off the board. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on “Harper’s Bazaar” as the long, drawn-out saga inches toward a resolution…

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi joined Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area for Pavlovic’s latest Giants Insider podcast (audio link; Harper talk beginning around 12:45), wherein Morosi called an 11-year contract for Harper “very possible.” As others have done before him, Morosi suggested that Harper is expected to receive a larger contract than the one Machado received in San Diego.
  • Coming away from their pursuit of Machado empty-handed has “heightened” the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper, writes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Breen writes that the organization is confident it’ll be able to sign the six-time All-Star, adding that the Phils “will be much more reluctant to walk away this time.” General manager Matt Klentak spoke candidly this week about the fact that Machado’s price point simply got to a point that exceeded the team’s valuation of Machado. It’s not clear whether the organization will take a similarly practical approach to Harper in the end, but Breen notes that the front office and ownership are keenly aware of how the public would perceive a scenario in which the Phillies fail to sign either Harper or Machado.
  • Padres ownership will meet tomorrow to determine if it is feasible to make a run at signing Harper in addition to signing Machado, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. As one would expect, Heyman notes that such a scenario is not at all considered likely, but it seems that the organization’s partners will at least perform due diligence and see if such a strategy can be pieced together. Heyman further tweets that for the Nationals, the ultimate call on Harper will come down to Ted Lerner (despite the fact that in 2018, Lerner ceded control of the organization to his son, Mark). The elder Lerner’s relationship with Boras is well-documented, though virtually every report out of D.C. over the past several weeks has suggested that the Nationals won’t be a top bidder for Harper.
  • Bruce Levine of 670 The Score / CBS Chicago reports that the White Sox will not bid on Harper, echoing similar sentiments reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale yesterday. Levine notes that the organization is quite high on some of its outfield prospects, noting that the ChiSox could make a short-term pickup in the outfield to help bridge the gap to that young talent.
 

jvett77

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Obviously, most including me, hope the Phils can get Harper, but I have this feeling that he will go to SF and the park by the bay. :o
 

jvett77

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Everything gets to be so programmed. Who's the lucky team, right now! It's like the King James world news conference to announce his signing with Miami. :bored2:
 

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Yo, Bryce, your wife hates Philly and its rabid fans, so your job is to slap the bitch into place. Just tell her that she’ll love getting fat at the Italian market while you’re at the park busting your fat ass. Still can’t decide? You moron, sign the freakin document.
 

SU Nittany Tide

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Yo, Bryce, your wife hates Philly and its rabid fans, so your job is to slap the bitch into place. Just tell her that she’ll love getting fat at the Italian market while you’re at the park busting your fat ass. Still can’t decide? You moron, sign the freakin document.
Apparently Middleton's plane is on vegas right now.
 
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