guesses

[thecrow124]

Let's all make guesses on who the prospects going to the Yankees will be.

I would think nothing more than Victor Black and Duke Welker, but if the Yankees insist on a position player I could see us giving up either of those two and Mel Rojas Jr.

 

[Illinest]

no the yankees are looking for a DH - particularly a lefty. If they get anything it'll be a pitcher.

 

[magnumo]

I wouldn't mind giving them Lambo or Rojas or even Matt Curry..... but those are not real guesses.

And I could live with Black or Welker, as suggested by crow..... or Quinton Miller or ZVR. Wouldn't LIKE to give up on Miller or ZVR yet, but I could live with it more easily than some other pitching prospects.

 

[Illinest]

nononononono ZVR is absolutely not a guy to give up on.
Serious nos. NoNONono.

 

[element1286]

Agree, I would be upset if ZvR is going to the Yanks.

Nate Baker and Michael Dubee is my guess.

 

[magnumo]

Hey guys..... I appreciate the love for ZVR. I'd prefer not to lose him either.

But there remain a lot of pitchers I would keep ahead of him. Here's a list in alphabetical order, including the obvious..... Taillon, Cole, and Heredia.

Allie
Cain
Cole
Dodson
Heredia
Holmes
Kingham
Locke
McPherson
Morris
Owens
Taillon
Wilson

I'd keep ZVR ahead of the guys that follow, also listed in alphabetical order:

Baker
Black
Brewer
Cumpton
Fuesser
Glasnow
Irwin
Miller
Welker

Have at it guys. Whom would you move to the 2nd list?

 

[thedddd]

Why not D. McCutchen and Ohlendorf....Oh wait that is the garbage they sent the Pirates.

Seriously though I think try to send them an Alderson (cough, i know don't kill me too much and if they laught try Victor Black) and a d'Arnaud. My reasoning is that I don't think the Pirates see him as the future SS. They have Barmes for 2 years and I think Mercer or even Holt will be better. Also they have ten thousand backup SS's on the roster right now.

 

[thecrow124]

Mags, hard to argue with anything in that post, but I tend to like ZVR more than Locke or Owens, and I am a huge Owens guy. The only definate swap for me is Morris, I don't have him in the same argument as a lot of guys on your second list, let alone the first. IF, and this is a big if, ZVR can develop a fastball in the low 90's he moves to #4 on my personal pitching prospects list, so it is just hard for me to have him too far down to begin with.

 

[Darkstone42]

I would probably put Wilson below ZVR as well. We have a lot of very similar arms to Wilson's in our system, and I think most of them are better than him.

 

[Illinest]

Hey guys..... I appreciate the love for ZVR. I'd prefer not to lose him either.

But there remain a lot of pitchers I would keep ahead of him. Here's a list in alphabetical order, including the obvious..... Taillon, Cole, and Heredia.

Allie
Cain
Cole
Dodson
Heredia
Holmes
Kingham
Locke
McPherson
Morris
Owens
Taillon
Wilson

I'd keep ZVR ahead of the guys that follow, also listed in alphabetical order:

Baker
Black
Brewer
Cumpton
Fuesser
Glasnow
Irwin
Miller
Welker

Have at it guys. Whom would you move to the 2nd list?

ZVR is going to be one of the breakouts this year. By the end of the season youll have him on a much smaller top list.
Of course i dont like the idea of moving locke or morris or owens when theyre so close to the majors but if i had five years of security and a mandate to keep just the one most talented guy then zvr would be very hard to dismiss. His performance isnt so much yet but thats not meaningful until we see him in other situations.

 

[magnumo]

To element:

- Baker: OK..... he's on my 2nd list, below ZVR.

- Dubee: OK..... don't know much about him. Perhaps I'd put him on a third list.

To thedddd:

- Ohlendorf: OK. (I know you were joking..... but since he was non-tendered, he's now a free agent.) Depending on his health, I wouldn't mind bringing him back on a minor league deal.

- D. McCutchen: OK..... seems easily replaceable

- Alderson: OK..... I forgot completely about him. (Sure made the Freddy Sanchez trade "forgettable," too.) Perhaps I really need that third list.

- D'Arnaud: OK

To thecrow:

- Locke and Owens: I'd prefer to keep them as starting depth, but I understand what you're saying. ZVR probably has a higher ceiling.

- Morris: Guess I'm just hanging onto some hope. Hate to see NH go a complete 0 for 4 on the Bay trade.

To Darkstone:

- Wilson: I remain impressed with his fastball, reported to reach 97-99 in relief with a lot of movement. Now, if he can only learn to control it (along with his curve)..... I know that's a big IF. I just see him as more likely to contribute than ZVR. I sincerely hope that ZVR proves me wrong.

 

[magnumo]

ZVR is going to be one of the breakouts this year. By the end of the season youll have him on a much smaller top list.
Of course i dont like the idea of moving locke or morris or owens when theyre so close to the majors but if i had five years of security and a mandate to keep just the one most talented guy then zvr would be very hard to dismiss. His performance isnt so much yet but thats not meaningful until we see him in other situations.

I hear ya, Illinest. Hope you're right.

 

[element1286]

ZVR is going to be one of the breakouts this year. By the end of the season youll have him on a much smaller top list.

I'm completely with you on this one, Illinest.

Taillon, Cole, McPherson, Heredia, Allie, ZvR, Kingham, Cain would be my order right now.

ZvR's problem last year had to do with giving up too many HR's, other than that, he was very good. Why he gave up so many HR's, I don't know exactly, but I have a hunch it is based on the Pirates philosophy of developing fastball command first, and secondary pitches second, since ZvR's strengths are his secondary pitches, I see the HR total as anomalous.

 

[thedddd]

Mags, yeah that was a poor attempt at a joke with Ohlendorf but yeah I would like to see the Pirates bring him back on a minor league deal. Honestly it would have been better than Daniel Cabrera!

As for ZVR like stated by Element the report on him is that his Curve and Change up are well advanced but his Fastball is behind. That might explain the HR totals since he probably is leaving too many out there why trying to add speed/movement.

 

[thecrow124]

The scoop I hear on ZVR, nothing insider here, just what Pirate Prospects seems to say about him, is that he tends to leave his fastball up. This isn't always necessarily a bad thing, except when your fastball is average, and has little movement. Factor in that in both levels he has pitched so far they have been preaching fastball command to him, so therefore he was for the most part pitching off of an average pitch that he tends to leave in bad spots.
If you look at the end of the year, both years, he has been allowed to pitch off of his curve, which is far and away his best pitch, and he has had a lot of success. The reason I say that if he can gain velocity on his FB he shoots way up my rankings is because at 92MPH, you can opccasionally sneak a high one by a hitter, however, at 88 it just isn't going to happen at any level.
That being said, I do not see him adding much, if any velocity, when drafted he was said to have a projectible frame. Other than being tall, I don't see it, he is pretty slim top to bottom, so is likely to be a finess pitcher. That is fine for a #3 or #4 which is where he should end up. Heck with his curve and his change, he could be a finess #2, but not likely.
I know a lot of people expect a lot more because he was a "bonus baby", but in all honesty, he only got $1.25 million, the guys NH thought would be #1's were paid as such. The entire group drafted that year project out as #2 at the high end and #5 at the low. For the price paid at the time we all expected much more, but in retrospect, probably still going to be a good deal even if only 1 of them advances to be a #3.

 

[thecrow124]

I'm completely with you on this one, Illinest.

Taillon, Cole, McPherson, Heredia, Allie, ZvR, Kingham, Cain would be my order right now.

ZvR's problem last year had to do with giving up too many HR's, other than that, he was very good. Why he gave up so many HR's, I don't know exactly, but I have a hunch it is based on the Pirates philosophy of developing fastball command first, and secondary pitches second, since ZvR's strengths are his secondary pitches, I see the HR total as anomalous.

Not the order I would go, but not too bad either. I don't like making prospect lists, but I guess I'll give it a shot. As of today I would go:
Taillon
Cole
Heredia(although I think he will be better than Cole in the long run)
Kingham
McPherson
Owens
Locke
Cain
ZVR
Allie

I am probably missing someone, but off the top of my head that's what I have.

 

[element1286]

Anyone know Kingham's velo reports....because going off stats, Kingham's 2011 performance was identical as ZvR's 2010, their peripherals are almost identical. So I find it curious everyone seems to have him so much higher.

 

[thecrow124]

Anyone know Kingham's velo reports....because going off stats, Kingham's 2011 performance was identical as ZvR's 2010, their peripherals are almost identical. So I find it curious everyone seems to have him so much higher.

Early in the year he was 92-94, later in the year 89-92. Secondary stuff isn't as good as ZVR's, so the loss in velo tended to catch up to him when they started letting him use his secondaries. Also, his change is a work in progress, so he is either slowing his arm motion, or can't get it close to the plate, but isn't as hard to fix as no velo. That is why I have him higher in my mind. Curious as to why others feel that way though.

But in all honesty, anyone on my list after Heredia I don't really project to be much different, just the likelyhood of making it and being successful.

 

[Darkstone42]

According to this blurb, the Pirates are only offering two "blah" prospects. The Yankees want them to take on more money, but the Pirates, recognizing the strength of their negotiating position, are trying to keep that number as low as possible.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2012/2/13/2796409/a-j-burnett-trade-yankees-pirates

 

[Etrius24]

I have to say I agree with Mags here... I want the Bucs to bring Ohlendorf back also... Smart guy with a really good arm... He has to the unluckiest son of a bitch I have seen in a while...I still like his talent... Bringing him back is a low risk move that could pay off... Considering how much the Pirates like to reach out on basket cases in hopes of finding a pearl in an oyster... I kind of expected Ohlendorf to be back in the fold already