goddamnit A's

[sfsportsfan]

Cahill and Breslow to arizona

 

[Heathbar012]

Cahill and Breslow to arizona

Shit. And they didn't even have to give up any current major leaguers. Fuck me. Anybody know anything about Zona's farm?

 

[sfsportsfan]

so now how does our pitching match up against theirs?

 

[filosofy29]

Billy Beane can eat the fattest dick.

 

[msgkings322]

so now how does our pitching match up against theirs?

As that Jonah Keri guy opined, Dbacks aren't going away. We don't get to just say 'stay healthy = easy division'. It'll be a dogfight. Then there's the 'never saw em coming' factor like AZ this year...Dodgers? Rockies?

 

[mistgl]

Shit. And they didn't even have to give up any current major leaguers. Fuck me. Anybody know anything about Zona's farm?

They have 3 of the top 10 pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Skaggs and Bauer are going to crack the bigs this year, and both have top of the rotation stuff.

Bradley is fresh out of high school, but if he's as good as everyone seems to think - expect him to debut fast and young like Cain did for us.

The dude they just traded to the a's, Parker, has more upside than cahill, but he's also not as polished and win now ready as cahill.

 

[sfsportsfan]

i wonder if this was a "screw you for not giving us san jose" move

 

[calsnowskier]

i wonder if this was a "screw you for not giving us san jose" move

I suspect it certainly played a role. However, I will take San Jose, and the a's making a FU trade over losing San Jose and the A's becoming the big team in the region any day.

 

[SFGRTB]

Fucking A's always trade with our division rivals (Haren, brought CarGo and Hariston BACK etc..)

 

[ColinCoby]

Gotta expect the D-Backs to be the clear favorites in the NL west going into next season.

D-Backs rotation: Kennedy. Cahill. Hudson. Collmenter. Saunders? Pretty damn good.

Perhaps this will entice the owners to free up some funds. (I know, not going to happen)

 

[msgkings322]

Gotta expect the D-Backs to be the clear favorites in the NL west going into next season.

D-Backs rotation: Kennedy. Cahill. Hudson. Collmenter. Saunders? Pretty damn good.

Perhaps this will entice the owners to free up some funds. (I know, not going to happen)

Sadly have to agree. We used to be able to say 'sure they have the better O but we have the better pitching.' Now the starting staffs are pretty even, and while our BP is still better the delta between them is smaller than how much better their lineup is.

Oh well, no one gives it to you on a platter...

 

[tzill]

Sadly have to agree. We used to be able to say 'sure they have the better O but we have the better pitching.' Now the starting staffs are pretty even, and while our BP is still better the delta between them is smaller than how much better their lineup is.

Oh well, no one gives it to you on a platter...

Hold on there, Hoss. Let's not exaggerate.

2012 Projections (per Bill James)

1. Kennedy 3.24 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; 222 IP
2. Hudson 3.43; 1.22; 218
3. Cahill 3.83; 1.33; 201
4. Collmenter 3.33; 1.16; 165
5. Saunders 4.20; 1.36; 212

vs.

1. Timmy 2.83; 1.20; 222
2. Cain 3.15; 1.12; 224
3. Bum 3.08; 1.21; 214
4. Song 3.94; 1.40; 196
5. Zito -- n/a didn't project as a starter.

Now don't get me wrong, AZ has a nice starting staff. But they do NOT have a pitcher who could crack our top three. Kennedy would be a fourth starter on the Giants.

If you look at bullpen projections, we also have an edge there. I think, since they're our starters and we see them so much, there's a tendency to miss how elite they really are.

 

[msgkings322]

Hold on there, Hoss. Let's not exaggerate.

2012 Projections (per Bill James)

1. Kennedy 3.24 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; 222 IP
2. Hudson 3.43; 1.22; 218
3. Cahill 3.83; 1.33; 201
4. Collmenter 3.33; 1.16; 165
5. Saunders 4.20; 1.36; 212

vs.

1. Timmy 2.83; 1.20; 222
2. Cain 3.15; 1.12; 224
3. Bum 3.08; 1.21; 214
4. Song 3.94; 1.40; 196
5. Zito -- n/a didn't project as a starter.

Now don't get me wrong, AZ has a nice starting staff. But they do NOT have a pitcher who could crack our top three. Kennedy would be a fourth starter on the Giants.

If you look at bullpen projections, we also have an edge there. I think, since they're our starters and we see them so much, there's a tendency to miss how elite they really are.

I think this makes you overvalue them. Bill James doesn't have significantly better predicting power than any other expert. Nobody knows nuthin.

Kennedy is as good as our top 3. He just is, over the course of a season. Cain can be dominant one day, so so the next. Same as Timmy. MadBum as we know can get inexplicably shelled at any time. Kennedy is no better, but he's in the same class. Their 5 and 4 are better. Their 2 and 3 aren't much behind ours. The staffs are comparable.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'd say the D-Baggs are the favorites unless the Giants make a big offensive splash, a la Prince or Beltran or HamRam. Wishful thinking though.

 

[msgkings322]

I'd say the D-Baggs are the favorites unless the Giants make a big offensive splash, a la Prince or Beltran or HamRam. Wishful thinking though.

Agreed but only by a little. As usual injuries will be a big part of who wins.

 

[ColinCoby]

I'd say the D-Baggs are the favorites unless the Giants make a big offensive splash, a la Prince or Beltran or HamRam. Wishful thinking though.

It would be nice, in an instance such as this when your main opposition makes a move that clearly gives them an edge, for the Giants organization to respond.

Perhaps it comes down to this: we were lucky our team somehow won a World Series after the front office failed so miserably on the Zito/Rowand signings. As many of you have said, The Giants just can't afford to make major mistakes like the BoSox and Yanks with free agents. The team became champs anyway, but the odds were way against us in 2010 and will likely remain that way in 2012. And we can blame the front office's past sins for that.

Forgive my whining; I'm pumped for the season to start. The team is one of the best in the NL if healthy. Still, it's easy to get frustrated with the lack of any bold moves.

 

[SportsTIPS]

Remember you don't win or lose games on paper. You have to play the game.

 

[ColinCoby]

Remember you don't win or lose games on paper. You have to play the game.

Baseball is ninety percent mental, the other half is physical.

 

[tzill]

I think this makes you overvalue them. Bill James doesn't have significantly better predicting power than any other expert. Nobody knows nuthin.

Kennedy is as good as our top 3. He just is, over the course of a season. Cain can be dominant one day, so so the next. Same as Timmy. MadBum as we know can get inexplicably shelled at any time. Kennedy is no better, but he's in the same class. Their 5 and 4 are better. Their 2 and 3 aren't much behind ours. The staffs are comparable.

We like to call that Onus probandi . You can repeat it, but repeating it alone doesn't carry the argument. Your response to the projections I cited was "they're just projections." Well sure, but they're respected, considered, sophisticated projections. They are not always right, but they're an INDICATOR of what the learned baseball public thinks. That public thinks the Giants staff is better.

Here's another tack:

ERA+ for 09, 10, 11, 3 year avg

Kennedy: n/a, 111, 137, 124 (2 yr avg)
Hudson: 115, 138, 118, 124
Cahill: 96, 138, 97, 110

Tim: 173, 114, 130, 139
Cain: 148, 124, 123, 132
Bum: 246 (only 10 IP), 131, 111, 121 (2 yr avg)

What I notice from these stats is that NOBODY has come CLOSE to Tim's 2009. Not fucking CLOSE. Thus, he is CLEARLY the highest upside guy in the bunch, AND he's got the highest average too.

What I also notice is that if you were to slot the six pitchers by average ERA+, you'd get this:

1. Tim
(drop 7 points)
2. Cain
(drop 8 points)
3a. Kennedy
3b. Hudson
5. Bum
(drop 11 points)
6. Cahill

Which also jibes with my "gut" and actually watching these guys pitch for the last three years. Simply said: Timmy is better than Matt by a good margin, Matt is better than Kennedy/Hudson/Bum by a good margin, and Cahill sucks hind tit by quite a bit.

So, no, Kennedy ISN'T just as good as Tim or Matt. Where I will agree is that he's in the conversation with being as good as Bum or Hudson, but he's a #3 on our staff.

Final aside -- re: Bum "getting shelled at any time." If you take away that miserable 1/3 of an inning vs. the Twins on June 21, his 2011 looks like this:

204.1 IP 193 H 65 ER 46 BB 2.86 ERA 1.17 WHIP

...and an ERA+ of about 125. My point is that except for that one horrific outing, he was 25% better than the entire league at the age of 21, after being 31% better than the league at the age of 20. The Snakes have nothing close to that.

 

[tzill]

Remember you don't win or lose games on paper. You have to play the game.

Dude, you're not funny. Just shut it.