Giants Scouting Mike Leake

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Brian Sabean and scout Lee Elder were in Cincinnati scouting the Reds/Cueto.

Today, followed it up with more info.


Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
After news that #SFGiants' Sabean and Elder were at Wrigley for Cueto on Friday, some fans opined that team is more likely to pursue Leake.


Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal

Well, FWIW, #SFGiants' Sabean and Elder also were at Wrigley last night to see Leake.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

The 27-year-old Leake is from San Diego. The right-handed pitcher had a strong may with a 3.03 ERA, .179 average allowed. But May was baaaaad for him.

Some more quick numbers on the impending free agent:
Has a 4.35 ERA this season, xFIP of 3.93

2015:
IP: 82 1/3
GB%: 52.4
baBIP: .262
HR/FB: 19.7 percent
K/9: 5.23
BB/9: 2.50
K%: 13.9
Pull/Center/Oppo %: 43.6/37.0/19.4
Soft/Med/Hard Contact: 15.8/57.9/26.4
Fly ball %: 24.7

2014:
IP: 214 1/3
GB%: 53.4
baBIP: .298
HR/FB: 13.1 percent
K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 2.10
K%: 18.2
Pull/Center/Oppo %: 42.2/35.0/22.8
Soft/Med/Hard Contact: 16.4/51.9/31.7
Fly ball %: 26.4

2013:
IP: 192 1/3
GB%: 48.7
baBIP: .285
HR/FB: 11.5 percent
K/9: 5.71
BB/9: 2.25
K%: 15.2
Pull/Center/Oppo %: 40.2/33.9/25.9
Soft/Med/Hard Contact: 13.4/53.4/33.1
Fly ball %: 29.8


Notes:
Fastball velocity has remained around 90 past three seasons, up just a little.


Numbers courtesy of FanGraphs

 

[Band of Brothers]

Real good info , Man. Thank you for the report.

 

[tzill]

Average ERA+ over the last three years: 100, or league average.
He's 27 so there is some hope of upside in the next year or two.
0.7 average WAR over the last three seasons, and he's about on track for that this year.
Overall, he's a below average SP. Being at AT&T might help some, but do we really need another 4?

We have: Timmah, Huddy, Tron, Peaved all as 4-5 type starters.

Hopefully, Cain comes back as a 2 and Moses is a legit 3. I don't see a need to trade for Leake as he's not an improvement over what we already have lots of.

 

[calsnowskier]

Average ERA+ over the last three years: 100, or league average.
He's 27 so there is some hope of upside in the next year or two.
0.7 average WAR over the last three seasons, and he's about on track for that this year.
Overall, he's a below average SP. Being at AT&T might help some, but do we really need another 4?

We have: Timmah, Huddy, Tron, Peaved all as 4-5 type starters.

Hopefully, Cain comes back as a 2 and Moses is a legit 3. I don't see a need to trade for Leake as he's not an improvement over what we already have lots of.

Good points.

However, I personally have zero faith in Timmeh, THudd or Vogey. Each time they take the bump, I have no idea if they are going to go 7 giving up only 5 his, or if they are going to get chased after 2.1. I would rather have a guy who always goes 6 while giving up 3 or 4. If that is the case, the bully knows how to mentally prepare, and Bochy will not be forced to burn everyone.

Then again, maybe the wildly erratic pitcher is preferred in the playoffs. Getting a QS in the playoffs is not nearly as important, as the hook is often MUCH quicker anyway. And if a guy is either "on" or "off", the hook can come immediately and the team only needs to be concerned with the guys good outings.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Average ERA+ over the last three years: 100, or league average.
He's 27 so there is some hope of upside in the next year or two.
0.7 average WAR over the last three seasons, and he's about on track for that this year.
Overall, he's a below average SP. Being at AT&T might help some, but do we really need another 4?

We have: Timmah, Huddy, Tron, Peaved all as 4-5 type starters.

Hopefully, Cain comes back as a 2 and Moses is a legit 3. I don't see a need to trade for Leake as he's not an improvement over what we already have lots of.

Agreed. We need to stop the bleeding, and get Pence and Cain back.

We will be OK.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not counting on ANYTHING from Cain. Dude has not pitched in a year +, and was not that great before he went down.

I will believe he is "back" when he is, actually, back.

 

[Sandisfan]

I am not counting on ANYTHING from Cain. Dude has not pitched in a year +, and was not that great before he went down.

I will believe he is "back" when he is, actually, back.

I completely understand your skepticism of Cainer, but he was pitching with discomfort and if that is cleared up then you may well be underestimating him....I hope.

 

[calsnowskier]

I completely understand your skepticism of Cainer, but he was pitching with discomfort and if that is cleared up then you may well be underestimating him....I hope.

I hope so too.

I am just not ready to ink in a #2 level pitcher from him until I see him pitch a game or 3 at the MLB level.

 

[tzill]

I hope so too.

I am just not ready to ink in a #2 level pitcher from him until I see him pitch a game or 3 at the MLB level.

Dude, I don't think ANYBODY is "inking" him as a #2. That's best case scenario, because, hey -- why not?
another 5 weeks before we make any moves; let's see what we have then.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Dude, I don't think ANYBODY is "inking" him as a #2. That's best case scenario, because, hey -- why not?
another 5 weeks before we make any moves; let's see what we have then.

Again, agreed (scary?). Trading prospects to get Leake doesn't solve anything and just doesn't make sense.

We aren't hitting, so we pick up a backend SP?

That is unless the gurus say that Hudson, Cain, Timmy, and Peavy are through.

 

[calsnowskier]

So, looking at the Reds roster, what types of deals are possible?

Would the Giants be willing to trade Beede? He is having a breakout year, and should be ready for AT LEAST a cuppo by next season (I expect him to be pushing for a rotation slot next year). If he is available, what is his value? How much extra would the Gs need to add to pull Cueto or Chapman? I think Beede and Susac for just one of them is too much. Am I over-valuing the Giants kids?

Might the Giants try to grab Bruce instead? Is he an upgrade over our starters (when healthy)?

Would we want to go for Frazier? Why replace Duffy? He is rock-solid.

 

[RamsFan88]

If they give up Susac and Beede, it better be for a #1 caliber pitcher...Cueto or someone else.

 

[msgkings322]

White Sox need a catcher...would you guys do Susac for Quintana straight up?

 

[MarcoPolo]

White Sox need a catcher...would you guys do Susac for Quintana straight up?

Hell yeah. - but the Sox wouldn't (unless Susac significantly increases both offensive and defensive performance). As much as I'd like to keep Susac, you immediately say yes to a deal like that. I'd throw in a 2nd prospect (but not a star). Quintana would most likely be a solid #3 pitching 1/2 his games in AT&T. He's signed thru 2018 inclusive AND has two team option years in '19 and '20. He's a cheap as MadBum has been up to now, and his top salary would be a tad over $10M (in his two option years, '19 and '20).

The Giants would have a starting 5 of MadBum, Cain, Heston, Quintana, Peavy for 2016, and in 2017 add in whichever one of Law, Beede, Mejia, Blach, etc. is ready in 18 months. Heck, they'd have a solid top 4 rotation thru 2019, and if one of 'the kids' really shines, you trade somebody and let the kid take that spot. There would be plenty of time for the current 'could be stars' pitching talent to develop, and no reason to rush them - almost none of the possible star starting pitchers in the minors are on the 40-man, and wouldn't need to be added for a year or two, and then 3 option years.

 

[calsnowskier]

White Sox need a catcher...would you guys do Susac for Quintana straight up?

Quintana looks better than Leake, sure. But would he be a difference maker? Would he be a significant step up from the dregs we have now?

With his contract, would the Sox be willing to trade him for Susac one-up?

I am not sure that is a good match for the two teams.

 

[msgkings322]

Hell yeah. - but the Sox wouldn't (unless Susac significantly increases both offensive and defensive performance). As much as I'd like to keep Susac, you immediately say yes to a deal like that. I'd throw in a 2nd prospect (but not a star). Quintana would most likely be a solid #3 pitching 1/2 his games in AT&T. He's signed thru 2018 inclusive AND has two team option years in '19 and '20. He's a cheap as MadBum has been up to now, and his top salary would be a tad over $10M (in his two option years, '19 and '20).

The Giants would have a starting 5 of MadBum, Cain, Heston, Quintana, Peavy for 2016, and in 2017 add in whichever one of Law, Beede, Mejia, Blach, etc. is ready in 18 months. Heck, they'd have a solid top 4 rotation thru 2019, and if one of 'the kids' really shines, you trade somebody and let the kid take that spot. There would be plenty of time for the current 'could be stars' pitching talent to develop, and no reason to rush them - almost none of the possible star starting pitchers in the minors are on the 40-man, and wouldn't need to be added for a year or two, and then 3 option years.

Well said, I had no idea what a great deal the Sox have in Quintana. Susac + for sure. Just saying our best chip is right in their area of need. But they probably need to keep their cheap as hell #3 more.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

So, looking at the Reds roster, what types of deals are possible?

Would the Giants be willing to trade Beede? He is having a breakout year, and should be ready for AT LEAST a cuppo by next season (I expect him to be pushing for a rotation slot next year). If he is available, what is his value? How much extra would the Gs need to add to pull Cueto or Chapman? I think Beede and Susac for just one of them is too much. Am I over-valuing the Giants kids?

Might the Giants try to grab Bruce instead? Is he an upgrade over our starters (when healthy)?

Would we want to go for Frazier? Why replace Duffy? He is rock-solid.

I wouldn't want to touch Bruce.

Banking on all or nothing power

 

[calsnowskier]

I wouldn't want to touch Bruce.

Banking on all or nothing power

I agree. I am just trying to see if there is anyone else on their roster we may be interested in. I think, though, that it is pretty much restricted to Leake, Cueto and Chapman.

 

[jeep99tj]

CSN Bay Area is reporting that Hudson may go on the DL when Peavy comes back. They say it will be for much needed rest.