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Game flow vs. match-ups

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by Brees#1, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. Brees#1

    Brees#1 Well-Known Member

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    How do you determine wins and losses for a team in a given season. Do you use match-up reasoning or game flow. Personally, the game flow is not what I use. That's like saying, this team is good enough to win this many games if things go well, but imo match-ups do determine how a team's season could go. A team can get hot playing the right match-ups early on and then momentum takes over.

    Now by match-ups, I don't mean pitting talent against talent. I also factor in home and road situations with back to backs, rest disparity.

    For instance the Chicago Bears went 12-4 last year because they played Seattle, Arizona, and Tampa Bay three of the first four weeks. They played those three plus the Jets and Bills the first half of the season. They are 5-3 after that and those records give them wins at home against Detroit and Minnesota. Sweeps against Detroit and Minnesota. The Bears do not do this without that schedule.

    Then, there is the Colts. The Colts started out 1-5. What should be noted is that three of those five losses included Philadelphia, Houston, and New England. They lost to the Bengals because it was week 1 and the Bengals had yet to start their yearly decline. They lost to the Jets because Jets were at home on back to backs and Colts were on the road again after a TNF loss. But then they play the Bills, Raiders, declining Jaguars, Titans (they never have beaten Luck). They are 5-5. They have the momentum against Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston. That 7-6 record gets them a big home win against Dallas and a comeback win against the Giants. Given that Luck has owned the Titans, beating the Giants was what ultimately returned the Colts to the playoffs.

    So yes, flow matters more in the second half or when momentum has taken effect. Match-ups matter more in the first half and to get runs started.
     



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  2. PhoenixEagles1

    PhoenixEagles1 Well-Known Member

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    Forgot the Colts were 1-5. They got inside our 10 with less then a minute left and we sacked him for the win. Sometimes winning and losing can be so close.
    Matchups have a lot to do with it. Even though the Giants have been really bad we always struggle versus them. How you matchup is a big deal.
     
  3. Schmoopy1000

    Schmoopy1000 When all else fails, Smack em' in the Mouth!

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    Division rivals are always hard games. Even if one team is great & the other sucks.
    You could have one team be 1-15 & one be 15-1 & chances are the 1 game is probably against a division rival.
    I know the one time we went 1-15 we beat the redskins.

    You always have to look at division games differently.
    I think the Giants are gonna suck, but I am still gonna be concerned when we play them. there is no givemes in division games.
     
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  4. There is A Moose at 3rd

    There is A Moose at 3rd Mahomes > Your Fav

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    Talent level trumps all.
     
  5. Southieinnc

    Southieinnc Ravens will miss his ass!

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    Except in AFC Championship Games?????
     
  6. Southieinnc

    Southieinnc Ravens will miss his ass!

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  7. There is A Moose at 3rd

    There is A Moose at 3rd Mahomes > Your Fav

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    Imagine thinking I would be dumb enough to buy into an N=1 argument :)

    Shieeet, I pooh-pooh 20 game samples repeatedly on this forum.
     
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  8. rmilia1

    rmilia1 Well-Known Member

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    Mostly talent level, where and when the game is being played with some matchup . I don't usually look at individual games as much as I do pods.

    Like with Atlanta this year ( out of division ) I see 3 games we SHOULD win ( at Zona , Tennessee , Jacksonville ) 1 game I expect a loss in ( at Indy ), 1 game I feel confident in but not confident enough to say we should win for sure ( at SF ) then 5 games I think could go either way ( Seattle , Rams, Philly , at Minnesota , at Houston )

    If I think we should go 2.5-.5 in the first 3, .25-.75 vs Indy , .6-.4 vs SF, 2.75-2.25 in the last 5 ( with 3 of them at home ) that puts me at 6.1-3.9. Division games I depend more on matchups as the familiarity is huge so I see about 3.75-2.25 there which gets me to 10-6.

    It's easier imo to pod the games as opposed to looking at them individually
     
  9. Brees#1

    Brees#1 Well-Known Member

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    You have to go to Houston and Arizona back to back weeks so I'm not sure you'll win both. You could. You have a lot of interesting back to backs next year. LA/Seattle, NO/Car, then TB/NO/Car.
     
  10. Brees#1

    Brees#1 Well-Known Member

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    Which of those were at home? The playoff teams.
     
  11. Brees#1

    Brees#1 Well-Known Member

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    Your team has been pushing the Giants around for years now. One loss in five years. But playing them both times in December will be a problem. Though Eagles may not have anything to play for week 17 (if they clinch and all).
     
  12. rmilia1

    rmilia1 Well-Known Member

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    Yep . The good thing is all of our tougher ( imo ) NFC cross overs are at home . We get the 2 best NFCW teams at home and Philly at home . If all 3 of those were road games id say 1-2 would be good whereas now I think 2-1 is doable .
     
  13. Manster7588

    Manster7588 Full Time Asshole.

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    I use Wins and Loses to determine Wins and Loses
     
  14. Schmoopy1000

    Schmoopy1000 When all else fails, Smack em' in the Mouth!

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    but that is so inaccurate.
     
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  15. PhoenixEagles1

    PhoenixEagles1 Well-Known Member

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    We have owned them but even our SB year they could have swept us. We needed a miracle play with a few seconds left and a 62 yard game ending FG to win. They just play is tough every time.
     
  16. sonnyblack65

    sonnyblack65 Well-Known Member

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    I go by which team has the best uni, dopest haircuts, who Kyle Brandt likes and which team has less sinners on it
     
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