How do you determine wins and losses for a team in a given season. Do you use match-up reasoning or game flow. Personally, the game flow is not what I use. That's like saying, this team is good enough to win this many games if things go well, but imo match-ups do determine how a team's season could go. A team can get hot playing the right match-ups early on and then momentum takes over. Now by match-ups, I don't mean pitting talent against talent. I also factor in home and road situations with back to backs, rest disparity. For instance the Chicago Bears went 12-4 last year because they played Seattle, Arizona, and Tampa Bay three of the first four weeks. They played those three plus the Jets and Bills the first half of the season. They are 5-3 after that and those records give them wins at home against Detroit and Minnesota. Sweeps against Detroit and Minnesota. The Bears do not do this without that schedule. Then, there is the Colts. The Colts started out 1-5. What should be noted is that three of those five losses included Philadelphia, Houston, and New England. They lost to the Bengals because it was week 1 and the Bengals had yet to start their yearly decline. They lost to the Jets because Jets were at home on back to backs and Colts were on the road again after a TNF loss. But then they play the Bills, Raiders, declining Jaguars, Titans (they never have beaten Luck). They are 5-5. They have the momentum against Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston. That 7-6 record gets them a big home win against Dallas and a comeback win against the Giants. Given that Luck has owned the Titans, beating the Giants was what ultimately returned the Colts to the playoffs. So yes, flow matters more in the second half or when momentum has taken effect. Match-ups matter more in the first half and to get runs started.