Game Thread: Game 4 vs Chiefs

[Gulf of Brazil]

Saturday open thread: Who should the Lions buy at the bye?

Enter: Chandler Jones. He checks all the boxes. A pass rusher who can play multiple positions (DE/LB). Young enough (turned 29 in February) to contribute for the duration of his contract (two years after this season at approximately $16 million per year) but not so young he’d command a Ramsey-esque ransom. And most importantly, he’s played for the Patriots so he’s probably halfway here already. As for production, he’s been one of the best at getting after the quarterback since entering the league (double digit sacks his last five seasons including 17 sacks in 2017 to lead the league).

His current team, the Cardinals, are winless with a rookie QB and coach. Acquiring younger assets through the draft should be their route.

What about the asking price? Based on his position, age and production I’m projecting he could be had for a second-round pick. If I’m being too optimistic on that price, you can add a mid rounder (fourth), if you please. He’s very good, but I’m not sure he’d command a first rounder, primarily because he’s approaching 30.

Imagine this team coming out of the bye with Jones and a rust-free Flowers on the edges. Add that to a hopeful resurgence from Snacks Harrison, along with added health to Mike Daniels and Da’Shawn Hand, and the Lions would have more than enough ammo to ruffle the feathers of any offense in the league.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

I'd stand pat with no trade at this time but obtaining Chandler does pique ones interest if we win the next two games and the pass rush isn't quite what MP expected. It would also depend on Hands injury status and Daniel's (possibly A' Shawn's status down the road).

I wouldn't expect rookie OLB Austin Bryant to do much this year , if anything, as he's missed so much time and it's probably too late to catch up.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Kenny Golladay proving he's one of the NFL's top targets in crunch time

When the Detroit Lions really need a big play in the passing game, they often dial up the same combination: Matthew Stafford to Kenny Golladay.

In fact, no other receiver in the NFL this season sees more action on 3rd-and-long or in the crunch time of games. Golladay is prolific at both, according to NFL Inside Edge.

Nobody gets more looks on 3rd down and 7 or more yards to go. Golladay is also tied with Emmanuel Sanders of the Broncos as the most-targeted player in the fourth quarter of games where the score is within 16 points or the final five minutes of games.

It’s an impressive level of responsibility for Golladay in his third season. And he has produced, too. He has five receptions in the fourth quarter that have resulted in first downs, and the Lions are one of the best at converting 3rd-and-long.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Justin Coleman grades out as a top-5 CB per PFF

Pro Football Focus recently listed the top-25 graded cornerbacks in the NFL through Week 5 and the Detroit Lions Justin Coleman landed at No. 5 overall.

“Slot cornerbacks matter, people,” PFF’s Ben Linsey said. “Coleman is proving that he is worth all of that four-year, 36-million dollar contract that he signed this offseason with the Lions. His best game of the season came prior to the bye against the Chiefs, breaking up multiple passes in the endzone and forcing a fumble with a well-placed punch on a ball secured by Sammy Watkins. His five pass breakups on the season are tied for the second-most in the NFL.”

Before last week’s bye, Coleman was graded out as PFF’s 3rd best corner in the NFL but was passed after a solid week from a few other defensive backs while the Lions were idle.

With Darius Slay typically locking up with the opponent’s top wide receiver option, Coleman has had been routinely tasked with being flexible in his coverage. Coleman has lined up in the slot and on the outside, as well as matching up with a variety of receivers both different stylistically and in size/speed. Regardless of the receiver across from him, Coleman has stepped up in a big way.

Coleman also took home two quarter-of-the-season Lions Wire Awards, getting voted the Defensive MVP and Most Pleasant Surprise by the writing and editing staff.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2019 Detroit Lions quarter-season awards

Free agent who impressed - Justin Coleman
The Detroit Lions pass rush in 2018 was abysmal despite solid sack numbers, and their inability to pressure pass rushers was maddening from a fan’s perspective. Though the team went out and signed Trey Flowers as the big money move to fix their defense, it was the signing of Justin Coleman that is more likely to receive praise as the season progresses.

Coleman had a comically bad training camp and preseason, but he has been one of the best overall cornerbacks in the NFL through four games, let alone one of the best nickel corners. He has more than lived up to his contract so far and will be considered one of the best roster moves of the offseason league wide if he keeps up this pace.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2019 Detroit Lions quarter-season awards

Best second-year player - Frank Ragnow
Presently the highest graded center in the NFL per Pro Football Focus, the return to his natural position has been a kind one for the former Razorback. The Lions running game has been hit or miss for one reason or another, but it has never been through a lack of push from the interior lineman. Graham Glasgow at right guard is currently the third-highest graded guard and eighth highest graded offensive lineman overall, while Joe Dahl at left guard ranks 29th among guards (not great, but top half of the league even if only just).

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

not bad for Dahl and it being his first year as a starter. He got rocked twice in the last game going against DT Chris Jones but so did Ragnow. I'm surprised at how decent he's played to date after only live watching the entire KC game and just the last 2 minutes and all of the overtime versus AZ.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2019 Detroit Lions quarter-season awards

Biggest Surprise - J.D. McKissic
The Lions don’t like to show their hand very much in camp or the preseason under Matt Patricia. Still, their personnel moves and usage hinted that they would be using gimmick plays less than they had under previous offenses after the release of Theo Riddick, trade of Golden Tate last season, and bare bones usage of those types of plays with Brandon Powell, who was eventually released.

The team then brought in utility man J.D. McKissic and expectations weren’t very high. McKissic has looked every bit the player you would expect from your versatile swiss army knife. His role isn’t very large in the offense (and I don’t expect it to grow), but unlike previous seasons where the gimmick plays were infuriating departures from schematic elements that were working, I think Darrell Bevell’s usage of the former Seahawk will continue to be effective.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Frank Ragnow is NFL's No. 1 center, Graham Glasgow No. 3 guard per PFF

Pro Football Focus ranked the NFL top offensive lineman through Week 5, naming Detroit Lions Frank Ragnow the NFL’s No. 1 center and Graham Glasgow is the No. 3 guard.

Ragnow has been grading out as PFF’s top center for some time now and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon.

“Ragnow has moved back to center in his second season in the NFL,” PFF’s Gordon McGuinness said, “and the results have been impressive, seeing him produce the highest grade at the position in the NFL through five weeks. He has been stellar as a run blocker, producing a 79.5 run-blocking grade which is comfortably the best at the position.”

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Frank Ragnow is NFL's No. 1 center, Graham Glasgow No. 3 guard per PFF


“Glasgow has been just ok in pass protection this season,” McGuinness said, “allowing a hit and eight hurries from 133 pass-blocking snaps, but he has really impressed as a run blocker since kicking back to guard. His 87.7 PFF run-blocking grade trails only Nelson at the position, putting him on course for a career year.”

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Frank Ragnow is NFL's No. 1 center, Graham Glasgow No. 3 guard per PFF

Here’s how the rest of the Lions offensive lineman rank:
Joe Dahl: No. 22 offensive guard
Taylor Decker: No. 27 offensive tackle
Rick Wagner: No. 47 offensive tackle

Reserve rotational lineman Kenny Wiggins didn’t have enough snaps to qualify, but his grade would land him 34th in their guard rankings. Tyrell Crosby’s one game played would land him 56th among offensive tackles if he had enough snaps to qualify.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Frank Ragnow is NFL's No. 1 center, Graham Glasgow No. 3 guard per PFF

Here’s how the rest of the Lions offensive lineman rank:
Joe Dahl: No. 22 offensive guard
Taylor Decker: No. 27 offensive tackle
Rick Wagner: No. 47 offensive tackle

2019 Detroit Lions quarter-season awards

It’s the other side of the line that gives concern, with Rick Wagner hitting the wall like many expected coming into the year. He’s currently the Lions lowest graded offensive lineman (just below Kenny Wiggins), and he’s hitting a potential out in his contract in 2020. If his current play continues, bets are he’s gone, and the Lions look to the draft to replace him. I would list free agent options at right tackle, but after reviewing that crop I think it’s best to just say it’s not likely (and you should probably worry if that’s their eventual move).

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Frank Ragnow is NFL's No. 1 center, Graham Glasgow No. 3 guard per PFF

Here’s how the rest of the Lions offensive lineman rank:
Joe Dahl: No. 22 offensive guard
Taylor Decker: No. 27 offensive tackle
Rick Wagner: No. 47 offensive tackle

2019 Detroit Lions quarter-season awards

Taylor Decker gets a ton of flack due to his disastrous start to the season, but he’s actually played well since returning from injury Week 3. Decker rates 12th among left tackles per PFF even including his horrid start, and has only allowed a hit and two hurries with no penalties over the past two weeks.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The Lions need to pay (and stop rotating) Graham Glasgow

Quinn has not been in the habit of handing out contract extensions during the season, it is time to make an exception to that rule.

While signing Glasgow won’t be cheap, as Lions Wire’s Erik Schlitt explained during the offseason, an extension shouldn’t break the bank either. The Lions need to make Glasgow’s extension a priority.

At the very least, the Lions need to stop the madness of replacing Glasgow with Wiggins. If the Lions want to continue to keep quarterback Matthew Stafford upright and continue the success on the ground that they had against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, they’ll need to lean on Glasgow.

Hard to do that when he’s sitting on the bench.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

I've been wanting for the extension to Glasgow to be done long before now but Bobby Q must have another thought process that he believes is best for the team (not imo).

No matter where the Lions have lined him up on the line — right guard, left guard, center — Glasgow’s performed, performed well and never been someone you had to worry about.

Is he an All-Pro? No. But is he above-average, dependable starter in a league starved for talented offensive linemen? You bet.

And in 2019, he has performed well above average. He has not surrendered a sack. And has been not just one of the Lions best players in the first four weeks of the season, but one of the best offensive linemen in the league period.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Heading into training camp: Projecting Graham Glasgow's contract extension

2019 IOL free agent class
The 2019 interior offensive line free agent market was notably shallow, with only five interior offensive linemen having a higher PFF grade than Glasgow and receiving a deal three years or longer — Jason Kelce, Matt Paradis, Rodger Saffold, Mitch Morse and Mark Glowinski.

The average of those contracts was:

• 3.4 years in length
• $9,073,667 average per year
• $16,775,000 in guaranteed money

2019 IOL contracts throughout the NFL
When the research area is expanded to the entire league, there were 31 guards or centers throughout the NFL who received a higher PFF grade than Glasgow in 2018. Six of them were also on rookie deals, so their contracts were removed from the equation to get a more accurate look at players second and third contracts.

The average of those 25 player contracts was:

• 3.95 years in length
• $8,313,891 average per year
• $16,817,805 in guaranteed money

Players of similar age and on-field success
Of the 25 players in the group above, nine of them were within a 1-year difference in age, while eight were within 6.5 points of Glasgow’s PFF grade. The one outlier is Shaq Mason who was PFF’s top-rated guard in 2018 and was over 10 points higher than the rest of the group.

Note: The chart below is ordered by 2018 PFF grade and the contract numbers were gathered from Over The Cap.

Tretter and Glowinski’s contracts came after one-year of success and Linsley’s came after arguably his least successful year in the NFL — which is why they likely got three-year deals — while the rest of the group received five-year contracts after having had more consistent careers.

Conclusion
If we compare the three sections examined we get the following results:

If Glasgow receives an extension in fall camp, he will have just turned 27-years-old, so you would expect the two sides to target a four- to five-year deal, matching the previous lengths of deals Quinn has made in past training camps.

A contract averaging $8,621,650 also seems to line up with the league average for a player who has consistently outplayed his contract — Glasgow earned hefty performance-based pay bonuses in each of the last two seasons — and is position flexible. If he were to reach the 2020 free agent market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his contract average exceed $9 million like this year’s class.

The tricky part will be guaranteed money. The average suggests a number around $17 million, but that doesn’t factor in the years of the contract. If Glasgow receives a five-year deal, as you can see in the chart in the section above, that figure will be closer to $25 or 26 million.

Erik’s prediction
A 5-year deal, averaging $8,500,000 per year with $25,000,000 in guaranteed money.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

BQ, you mofo, pay Glasgow and be done with and don't screw this team in the future by letting it get too late or worse yet losing Glasgow to FA in 2020. Benzschawel isn't the answer for 2020 and neither is Aboushi or Wiggins

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

TWENTYMAN: 5 areas to improve

RED ZONE GOAL TO GO

Detroit’s offense has found themselves in 1st and goal situations seven times in four games, and they’ve scored a touchdown on just three of those opportunities (one rushing and two passing). Their 43.9 touchdown percentage in goal-to-goal situations is the third worst in the NFL behind only Jacksonville (25.0) and Miami (20.0).

Detroit’s been forced to kick a chip-shot field goal after failing to score a touchdown twice.

The real issue has been coming out of those situations with no points, which has happened twice to the Lions due to two fumbles, both in last week’s 34-30 loss to Kansas City.

Overall, Detroit’s running successful plays in the red zone just 34.4 percent of the time (ranked 30th) and their overall red zone touchdown percentage of 54 percent ranks 18th overall.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

TWENTYMAN: 5 areas to improve

TURNOVERS


Quarterback Matthew Stafford has done a pretty good job limiting his interceptions with only two through his first four games, but he’s also fumbled three times and lost two of them – Week 1 in Arizona and the other last week inside the Kansas City 10-yard line.

Running back Kerryon Johnson lost a fumble last week at the Kansas City 1-yard line that was returned 99 yards for a touchdown.

Jamal Agnew muffed a punt in the Lions’ red zone Week 1 in Arizona that led to a late first-half field goal for the Cardinals in what was an eventual tie.

That’s six turnovers in three games for the Lions (4 fumbles, 2 INTs). Detroit’s defense has forced eight turnovers, giving the Lions a plus-two turnover differential, but the offense and special teams have to limit some of the crucial turnovers that cost them an opportunity to beat Arizona and Kansas City.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

TWENTYMAN: 5 areas to improve

THIRD DOWN

This applies for both sides of the ball.

Offensively, the Lions have converted 21 of their 55 third-down attempts. That’s good for a 38 percent conversion percentage, which ranks 20th in the NFL. Philadelphia (2-2), Dallas (3-1), Los Angeles (3-1) and Kansas City (4-0) are all over 50 percent converting on third down.

Defensively, opponents have converted 26 of 57 third-down attempts for a third-down percentage of 46 percent. That ranks 25th in the NFL. Division rivals Chicago (27 percent), Minnesota (30) and Green Bay (38) all rank in the top 12 in the league in third-down defense.