Football Outsiders Playoff Odds

[soxfan1468927]

Playoff Odds
Seahawks: 100.0%
Broncos: 100.0%
Colts: 100.0%
Patriots: 99.9%
Chiefs: 99.7%
Bengals: 98.9%
Panthers: 98.4%
Saints: 97.2%
Lions: 78.0%
49ers: 76.7%
Eagles: 60.8%
Cowboys: 52.7%
Steelers: 30.9%
Dolphins: 28.5%
Ravens: 28.2%
Bears: 17.6%
Cardinals: 12.3%
Packers: 5.9%
Titans: 5.9%
Chargers: 3.8%
Jets: 3.1%
Bills: 0.6%
Raiders: 0.4%
Giants: 0.3%
Browns: 0.1%
Rams: 0.1%

Conference Championship Appearance
Broncos: 71.6%
Seahawks: 67.4%
Patriots: 53.4%
Panthers: 48.9%
Bengals: 39.5%
Saints: 39.3%
Colts: 14.8%
Chiefs: 13.9%
49ers: 12.3%
Eagles: 11.6%
Lions: 10.1%
Cowboys: 6.0%
Bears: 2.7%
Steelers: 2.6%
Dolphins: 2.0%
Ravens: 1.6%
Cardinals: 1.3%
Packers: 0.4%
Titans: 0.3%
Chargers: 0.3%
Jets: 0.1%

Super Bowl Appearance
Broncos: 43.8%
Seahawks: 43.1%
Patriots: 27.1%
Panthers: 24.0%
Bengals: 17.6%
Saints: 16.9%
Chiefs: 5.1%
49ers: 4.8%
Eagles: 4.5%
Colts: 4.4%
Lions: 3.3%
Cowboys: 1.9%
Bears: 1.0%
Steelers: 0.8%
Dolphins: 0.6%
Cardinals: 0.4%
Ravens: 0.4%
Packers: 0.1%
Chargers: 0.1%

Super Bowl Win
Seahawks: 25.7%
Broncos: 21.3%
Panthers: 14.0%
Patriots: 12.2%
Saints: 8.7%
Bengals: 7.3%
49ers: 2.5%
Eagles: 2.1%
Chiefs: 1.8%
Colts: 1.4%
Lions: 1.3%
Cowboys: 0.7%
Bears: 0.4%
Steelers: 0.3%
Dolphins: 0.2%
Cardinals: 0.2%
Ravens: 0.1%

 

[TDs3nOut]

Thing I find most notable about that long list of probabilities is that the Ravens are assigned a .1% chance of winning the SB. My guess is that that is probably pretty close to the value they were assigned when the playoffs began last season. Not to say that's a good thing, of course.

 

[Doublejive]

I really do not wish to see Manning win the SB,sorry Bronco fan's nothing against you guys for many years i hated playing Elway but that first SB i cheered for the guy.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

According to this, the Seahawks have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Bears do of making the playoffs. That's bullshit.

 

[Podunkparte]

How can any team other than the Seahawks be a 100% lock to make the playoffs when they're the only team that has actually clinched a playoff spot?

 

[YourFriendGannon]

How can any team other than the Seahawks be a 100% lock to make the playoffs when they're the only team that has actually clinched a playoff spot?

Rounding up probably?

 

[cwood]

5% chance of making the playoffs.

 

[Perpetual_Beast_Mode]

If the Seahawks get homefield advantage, they have a 90% of getting to the Superbowl, IMO.

 

[letshavesomedinner]

Makes sense but very high odds by the Steelers to make the playoffs.

Would be great considering they started off 0-4

 

[TDs3nOut]

According to this, the Seahawks have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Bears do of making the playoffs. That's bullshit.

Well, the probabilities are just estimates and a lot of relevant factors are unknown. For example, will the Bears go forward with McCown or Cutler?

 

[Scooby-Doo]

According to this, the Seahawks have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Bears do of making the playoffs. That's bullshit.

That's a very solid prediction. Sorry, but it is.

 

[cdumler7]

If the Seahawks get homefield advantage, they have a 90% of getting to the Superbowl, IMO.

I understand your optimism and the Seahawks do have a great homefield advantage but not sure anybody outside of Seattle would put it that high. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Heck 6 seeds have won the Super Bowl after barely creeping into the playoffs. Throw in we still have a quarter of the season to go. Injuries, suspensions, and a whole host of other things can derail a season in a hurry. So I understand why they right now have it closer to 45% compared to the 90% that you have it at.

 

[sonnyblack65]

with pats d woes and injuries should be last place