First half recap.

[Illinest]

Andrew McCutchen is having a season that's hard to believe. His OPS is up to 1.039, 18 HRs, MVP talk. I think that the main difference between him and past all stars like Kendall and Giles is the fact that McC seems like a good teammate and leader. We wouldn't be where we are if it weren't for him - and not just because he's producing at an MVP level. He seems to be a big part of establishing a culture of success. You can see it in him and in A.J. Burnett in particular. Barajas also seems to have brought positive qualities to the team that go beyond his contributions on the field.

I made a pre-season prediction of 90+ losses. I was wrong. I no longer believe that this is a 90 loss team. I think that an end to the losing streak is a reasonable expectation and I'm prepared to discuss whether the playoffs is a possibility.

As for the specifics:
1. Neil Walker is having a good season. You might not even have noticed considering how long it took him to start getting any extra base hits but he's now up to a respectable 6 HRs and more importantly he's got the second best OBP on the team. His OPS is .774.
2. McGehee has rebounded part of the way to the hitter he was earlier in his career. His OPS of .736 is respectable but he's actually been a lot better than that aside from a terrible May.
3. Jones has been pretty good. OPS of .797 and 12 homeruns. He'll be a solid contributor every year if you keep left-handed pitchers away from him.
4. Alvarez has done enough to shut me up. .785 OPS and 16 homeruns.

HM. McKenry - not enough at bats to really call him an impact player but it's hard to argue with 7 HRs in 100 at bats. He's got the second highest slugging figure on the team and his OPS is .852. There's got to be some SSS involved in the figure but it's interesting to note that he's on a pace that would have given him 40+ homeruns if he he kept it up for 600 ABs.

I wasn't happy about Barajas signing but he's been fine. You can see that he's a pretty good defender and the pitchers all rave about him as a signal caller. Barmes was a guy that I was okay with and expected us to sign but I thought that we'd get some production out of him. He's the worst hitter on the team and looks clueless. On the plus-side: His defense has been pretty good.

The pitching staff is everything that last year's staff wished it could be. I did want to retain Maholm but that was before the A.J. Burnett trade. We didn't know what to expect out of Burnett - I was at least optimistic - but I don't think anyone expected to get a first half like this one. He's been so good for the team. I can tell that the players (rightly) look to McDonald as the ace of the rotation but Burnett is the leader. He came in here with a good attitude and went to work and now:

“I’m proud to take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. I’m proud, man. I’m proud to pitch for these players, these fans, this city. They’re bringing it out of me. I could … I’m not really going to do a very good job of putting this into words. This just all makes me proud to be a Pittsburgh Pirate.”

-AJ Burnett

Powerful sentiments.

Bedard is the unexpected weak link. I thought he'd be good but injured. Instead we got healthy and crappy. It would be nice to see him get his troubles straightened out.
Morton - I'm not surprised that he got injured. If you ask me - the biggest cause of injuries to the throwing arm is to change the delivery.
Correia has been acceptable. He is what he is.

Jeff Karstens is the swing guy. I'm learning to trust him. If he's able to pitch well then the Pirates are in pretty good shape.

The bullpen has done very well. Grilli and Lincoln have been the guys that stand out the most to me. Hanrahan continues to close games out but there are some peripheral stats that suggest that he's not pitching as well as the ERA and number of saves might lead you to believe.

All in all it's been an incredible first half. 11 games over .500, 1st place in the division. All of the peripherals match it. Did you know that our team OPS is higher than the OPS of our opponents? Our ace pitchers are getting strikeouts. Our hitters are hitting homeruns. I've even seen a metric that suggests that we run the bases well. Seems questionable but whatever...





Now we get to look forward to a stretch run that means something. I think it's pretty clear that we need to make a push for the playoffs. Whether rental or long-term fix, we're buyers. Definitely buyers.
The question is "what are we buying?"
A starting pitcher isn't such a bad idea. Injuries remain a possibility, and Burnett does have some troublesome history. Karstens was injured earlier as well.
On the other hand the Pirates have a few internal options. It wouldn't be ideal but you could try Lincoln again, give a chance to Locke, Owens, even Justin Wilson.
If I were in charge of the decision I would even consider Cole.

More likely we're looking at a middle of the order hitter. Probably a corner OF. Possibly a SS too. If you want a SS then perhaps Jed Lowrie?
The primary names in play right now are Carlos Quentin, Justin Upton, and Chase Headley. There's some meat to rumors about the first two because both teams are known to have been scouting our minor league system.

Justin Upton is interesting but there's a big problem there in that you have to be worried about injuries. Why is he having a down year? You also have to worry about what it would take to land him. He'd certainly need at least one of the big guys. It might take something like Taillon, Marte, Hansen. That's a hard pill to swallow. He's a great player with a lot of control but the farm system would look very different after the trade.

I'm thinking that Carlos Quentin is a good target if you can get him without giving up any of the big arms. He's a pure rental and so I would like to try to keep Taillon, Cole, Marte, Heredia, Bell, and Hansen off the table.
Let them have the pick of the rest of the farm system. I would not want to give up any of those higher ceiling players for Quentin. If it takes more then we should go for more. Upton. Maybe Headley.

In any event I think we can look forward to an interesting second half.

Perhaps
1. Marte - LF
2. Walker - 2B
3. McCutchen - CF
4. Quentin - RF
5. Jones/McGehee - 1B
6. Alvarez - 3B
7. Barajas/McKenry - C
8. Barmes - SS

Could be a strong lineup.

 

[Darkstone42]

Excellent post, Illinest.

A few additional points:

Alvarez has been very good defensively this year. Sure, he has some errors, but he's also made some sparklers of plays. In the National League this year, only Chase Headley has a better UZR at third. Overall, he's been a 2.1 WAR player so far, which is certainly more production that we've gotten out of third in recent memory. A very strong first half for him.

Neil Walker has been worth 2.0 WAR so far this year, himself. He's been doing it quietly, but he's having a pretty strong season so far, even with the slow start.

Overall, I think McGehee, Burnett, and Barajas have all been very good acquisitions for us this year, especially Burnett.

McGehee started slowly, but he's having a run right now where it seems every ball of his bat is hit hard. Just observing the dugout dynamic, he seems like a good guy to have in the clubhouse, too.

Barajas isn't a great player, but he's a gamer, and he plays the game the right way. He doesn't seem to take a pitch off. And he might have the highest baseball IQ on the team. He plays within himself and plays smart baseball. It's a great influence on a team to have that kind of guy in the dugout.

I expected Burnett to be good, but I could never have anticipated this. He's been fantastic. He's so calm on the mound no matter what's going on around him, and I think that demeanor is rubbing off on the rest of the staff. I also like that he gets after hitters fearlessly. And every time he opens his mouth in the media, I like what he has to say, especially that quote in your post above, Illinest.

And I love Drew Sutton, too. He's not an ideal player, but he just seems like a great guy and teammate, and, like Barajas, he doesn't seem to take any plays off. I loved his reaction to hitting that walk-off, too.

As for what we do at the deadline, I would look into acquiring either just Upton or try for both Quentin and Lowrie. Of course, the ideal situation would be to get both Upton and Lowrie without giving up our excellent farm system, but that's probably approximately impossible.

In any case, I think this team is going to compete for the playoffs right up until the last day. They're hungry, and they don't seem to want to settle for just breaking the losing season streak. I'm amped for the second half.

 

[sychmd]

i wouldnt give up anything above AA for quentin. no hansen either.
quentin is just a rental. this team has great chemistry and i am concerned with breaking that up with a rental. also wouldnt give up anyone we are seriously considering as a significant possible piece in our future for a 3 month rental, unless he was a guaranteed stud to get us to the WS.

i would more likely pursue a SS. preferably one we would have for awhile to stay with this core and be a keystone combo with walker. lowrie would fit that.

we have OF in the pipeline, but no SS other than on overmatched mercer and a fast but weaker hitting than barmes d'arnaud.

i would hold onto the cole, taillon, heredia, marte. only willing to give AAA pitchers for upton. then can throw in 3 or 4 for 1.

this is a great year, but as a small market team, we really have to guard our pitchers in the system, because everyone is always short on pitching every year. you see how far we were able to progress these past 1.5 yrs with some quality SP and Pen, and these werent even studs. we really want to build for the next 10, not to shoot the moon this year, have a good 2-3 yr run, then be bare for 8 yrs after that because we were chasing dreams every july 31.

it is much harder to find and more expensive to find #1 and #2 strating pitchers than it is to find productive hitters.

 

[sychmd]

just to add, i like both of your assessments and the thing i like the best is the chemistry from hurdle to the bench to the pen.
it seems they really do like each other, are battling to pick each other up, and when they make a mistake, they dont let it affect other areas of their game.

more of the intangibles than we have seen in the past.

i hope mcgehee is back as that would really fill a big need at 1B(not ideal) but allows us to fix SS and OF and C first.

i am sort of bummed we have to wait 4 days to see them again. luckily mon will be fun rooting for cutch.

 

[Etrius24]

Let's just hope the extra week of rest Bedard is getting will help him start the second half of the season strong.... That is what I am hoping for... Really think there is a chance that he just has not had to be a heavy workload guy for so long that he is breaking down a little.. .Sure he is healthy... But he is mid 30's and it has been a long time since he was a healthy workhorse starting pitcher... Let's hope the rest does the trick and they give him an extra day of rest whenever the schedule allows for it.

 

[Etrius24]

CAN YOU BELIEVE WE ARE 11 games over .500 and in first place??????

 

[Illinest]

I've heard D'backs and Padres might have some degree of interest in #Pirates RHP Brad Lincoln as part of deals ...

- Biertempfel

He goes on to say that the D'Backs have offered Upton and are scouting AAA. Says the Padres are scouting single-A.

 

[Etrius24]

Lincoln has been a pretty valuable pitcher for the Bucs... He has not been lights out as a starter... but he has been able to give the bucs spot starts... and he has been effective in a multi inning role to get them to the closer.

 

[ckhokie]

CAN YOU BELIEVE WE ARE 11 games over .500 and in first place??????

Definitely an impressive first half for your boys. The only thing I would be worried about as a bucks fan, is the inability to win on the road so far - although that's not a huge issue with how well they've been playing at PNC the last 2 months

 

[Illinest]

If Lincoln is involved then it's kind of interesting. I was counting on him moving into a more prominent role in the bullpen but perhaps other teams see him as a starter? I don't know what Etrius is saying by the way so hopefully it doesn't look like I'm having a conversation with him.

Another thing I was thinking about - I wonder if either team has any interest in Tabata? If you believe that he's actually 23 years old then he's actually got two big league seasons with an above average OPS. I think it's possible that a team might look at him as a third/fourth type of outfielder and those sorts of players are not without value. He could still be argued to have some upside as well.

I'm still trying to figure out the least painful way to land Upton.

As for Upton's down year - I've been looking into that and I see that he started the year with thumb troubles. Reminds me of a hamate injury. Upton is actually still hitting line-drives, he's not striking out significantly more than he has in the past, and his batting average is just about where it usually is. The only difference is the lack of homeruns. Maybe the thumb injury is the only thing wrong with him. If you dig around you'll see some articles that suggest that he's upset with D'Backs management and they with him.

My ideal would be if we could somehow acquire Upton without giving up any of the big three pitchers or Marte. Probably not realistic. If we have to give up any of them I hope it's Taillon. My way of thinking is that Marte's ISO is up again this year. He's showing more power as me moves up levels in a manner that reminds me of McC. His BB rate is up, his BA is sitting just south of .300 again. The only worry at all is the K rate, which is to say that there is some risk with him but his ceiling is very high in my opinion. I think he compares pretty favorably with McC at this point. I definitely think that he's distanced himself from Grossman at this point and the power is the key. Marte seems to be developing the power we were hoping for.

As for the difference between Cole and Taillon - I think you probably saw it if you watched them pitch in the Futures Game on ESPN2. Taillon looked good and hit 98 mph but Cole hit 100 and everything he threw had wicked movement aside from the fastball that he elevated. Cole is going to be a monster as soon as he learns to keep his fastball down.
I'm not fond of the idea of trading Taillon but I think that Upton is valuable enough to demand a player of Taillon's caliber as the centerpiece of a trade return.

 

[Etrius24]

Illinest


f Lincoln is involved then it's kind of interesting. I was counting on him moving into a more prominent role in the bullpen but perhaps other teams see him as a starter? I don't know what Etrius is saying by the way so hopefully it doesn't look like I'm having a conversation with him.


Your comments indicate that you did indeed know what I said...because part of what you said just overlapped my comment that was prior to yours... and you made a point to mention me in your post.

If you do not want to engage in a debate with me... Don't.. But it is a little silly for you to make a comment that coincides with mine.. and then say you have no idea what I said, If you did not read what I had said... you would not feel compelled to make a comment like this.

If we are to disagree on many things here... that is fine... But that was a little bit ridiculous

When you fight with your wife/gf.... do you get someone else in the room so you can talk to them in front of her in the third person and act as if she does not exist?

"Well you can tell my girlfriend that I am not talking to her...." When she is right there and can obviously see and hear you...

There has to be a better way to handle this.

 

[ramburgh]

It has been said that the D-Backs want major league ready players in return for Upton. This probably is not enough, but something like Lincoln, Tabata, Presley and Grossman would be my starting point in negotiations. With McCutchen, Marte and Upton, the Pirates would not need any OF help for the next 3+ years.

Marte, Walker, McCutchen, Upton, McGehee/Jones, Alvarez, Barajas/McKenry, Barmes (or trade for Lowrie)

 

[ramburgh]

It appears the Upton rumors are heating up. There is talk about Marte being included. If Marte is included as part of the package, I would try to also get someone like Joe Saunders with Upton.

 

[sychmd]

wouldnt trade marte unless you you know why upton:
1. is having a subpar year and you know how to correct it
2. whether upton has hit his ceiling and isnt going to get any better, as he has had many AB's at the MLB level.
3. you feel marte is still several years from being a contributor at the MLB level.

arizona has some nice pieces so i am not sure why they targeted upton to give up if he is young and has much upside and able to contribute right now. seems like they need pitching more than offense. we can send them a presley or grossman and some AAA pitching or a lincoln.
i am still wary why they quickly identified him as the one to get rid of unless they are hoping he brings back the most fillers for holes.

 

[element1286]

Yea, I don't know, I think there is a little too much talk about this 'down year' from Upton. It is strange that his power has decreased so much, but everything is essentially the same. Seems likely to me he has some sort of injury. If he was having a Pedro Alvarez circa 2011 type season, then yea, I'd be worried. But he isn't, he having a Jason Heyward circa 2011 season, and Heyward has bounced backed to his previous form very easily.

And to be honest, I don't see any way Arizona trades him at the deadline. I can't think of any logical reason to do so. They seem like they are putting out feelers to move him in the offseason, and want a starting point for later.

Arizona's system is pretty deep, it's always good to have more pitching, but they have as much pitching depth both in the ML rotation and prospects as anyone in the league. They would essentially have no use Rudy Owens/Jeff Locke/Brad Lincoln. Justin Wilson maybe, but he would probably moved to the pen for them.

 

[sychmd]

then why are they trading him.

 

[element1286]

I don't know, I don't actually believe they are going to trade him. BJ Upton has been on the block the past 4 years, and they haven't traded him.

 

[magnumo]

Great OP, Illinest..... and great follow-up, Darkstone42. Tried to "approve" both of those posts, but got a message that I had "approved" too many posts in the past 24 hours.

Heck, I've had a massive number of posts to read after being offline for more than two weeks. I think this is a great board, but it certainly has some strange rules when it comes to approving posts.

Hey Darkstone: Here are a couple of suggestions for you as a mod..... about the process of "approving" posts. (Some time ago, I had discussed this issue with another of the mods via email. I can't remember his name, but he indicated that he would look into it and get back to me. Unfortunately, I never received a response beyond that.)

- Seems to me that the "spread-it-around" rule (for approving posts) is too restrictive. If a single poster makes two outstanding posts in a row, I see good no reason why my approving the second should be disallowed.

- It also seems silly to have an "automatic" limit on the number of posts one can approve in 24 hours. I've read literally hundreds of posts during the past 24 hours. I can't tell you how many I've "approved" (perhaps you have access to that info), but the limit which has been imposed seems inappropriate.

It certainly would improve my board experience if those two rules could be relaxed a bit.

 

[Darkstone42]

Great OP, Illinest..... and great follow-up, Darkstone42. Tried to "approve" both of those posts, but got a message that I had "approved" too many posts in the past 24 hours.

Heck, I've had a massive number of posts to read after being offline for more than two weeks. I think this is a great board, but it certainly has some strange rules when it comes to approving posts.

Hey Darkstone: Here are a couple of suggestions for you as a mod..... about the process of "approving" posts. (Some time ago, I had discussed this issue with another of the mods via email. I can't remember his name, but he indicated that he would look into it and get back to me. Unfortunately, I never received a response beyond that.)

- Seems to me that the "spread-it-around" rule (for approving posts) is too restrictive. If a single poster makes two outstanding posts in a row, I see good no reason why my approving the second should be disallowed.

- It also seems silly to have an "automatic" limit on the number of posts one can approve in 24 hours. I've read literally hundreds of posts during the past 24 hours. I can't tell you how many I've "approved" (perhaps you have access to that info), but the limit which has been imposed seems inappropriate.

It certainly would improve my board experience if those two rules could be relaxed a bit.

I can publicly answer your questions about approval to the best of my ability right here.

Mods really don't have a lot of power on the format of reputation. The whole website follows the same rules when it comes to approving posts (or giving rep, as it's also called), and rules which seem restrictive to us on a small board like this are barely noticeable on some of the more populated boards where there are several posters. Here we have about 10-15 regulars, elsewhere, there are upwards of 100, maybe more in some cases.

I don't know why the twenty-four hour rule is in place, but it is. That's about the best I can give you on that.

In order for the reputation and post approval systems to be changed, I think only the website administrators can handle that, and I have gathered that recently, they have been busy with other issues, like broken links in posts causing problems for the website, managing advertisers and their demands, etc., to keep the site running smoothly and for free to the users. Changing the post approval protocol is likely quite low on their priority lists (if it's even on their priority lists), and will likely remain there for some time.

There is also a forum wherein concerns can be voiced by users, or requests made to improve the site. I believe there is a thread in that forum concerning reputation protocol, and I do know the administrators read those posts, because the only request I ever made (to have a forum dedicated to the discussion of homebrewing and other beer-related topics) was fulfilled. You may wish to voice your concern there, including some suggestions for improvement.

I hope this helps.

 

[magnumo]

Very helpful, Darkstone. I'll check out the forum you described.