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First decent player to decide to sit out 2020 ...

LawDawg

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Don't know that he is ranked high enough for this to be a good move. Projected to go mid-2nd round, at best. If he played well, and moved into first round, that's a lot of money.

 

Sportsguy9695

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I wouldn’t be surprised to see more players do this
 

LawDawg

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I wouldn’t be surprised to see more players do this
IMO, only if you have a place in the top of the 1st wrapped up. Otherwise of you are top 60 player, you better play. There is no easier money than getting into the 1st round. By that I mean, compared to have to perform for 4 years, stay healthy and get a second contract.

This guy is CB no. 4-10 according to some quick googling. That means late 1st at best, more likely mid 2nd - mid 3rd. Light it up this year and move up into the top 30 and you made some serious money.
 

Center Ice

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Don't know that he is ranked high enough for this to be a good move. Projected to go mid-2nd round, at best. If he played well, and moved into first round, that's a lot of money.

Mid 2nd round could slip to mid 4th. Leaving a pot of $$$ on the table.
 

LawDawg

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Mid 2nd round could slip to mid 4th. Leaving a pot of $$$ on the table.
Especially when some guys around him play really well. UGA has at least 2 guys that might come out this year. Stokes is around 10-15, but is really, really good. A good season and he moves ahead of this guy. Daniels is not on any list, but is in his 3rd year our of JUCO ... he could fly by this guy. There are dozens of others.

Doesn't make sense to me.
 

kburjr

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Especially when some guys around him play really well. UGA has at least 2 guys that might come out this year. Stokes is around 10-15, but is really, really good. A good season and he moves ahead of this guy. Daniels is not on any list, but is in his 3rd year our of JUCO ... he could fly by this guy. There are dozens of others.

Doesn't make sense to me.

Or go to school, catch the COVID, spread to his family...
 

wildturkey

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Don't blame him one bit. I'd do the same. If you're a projected high pick (like 1st three round projections always get drafted), there's little if any reason to play in what is certainly a mess of a season. Go focus on drills and training to be a pro
 

LawDawg

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Or go to school, catch the COVID, spread to his family...
Meh ... they risk injury every time they put on the pads. It's a balance ... he's of the age where it likely won't be hurt by it seriously (99.9%), and he can simply avoid his parents. He's in college, it's not like he is living at home. If they are more prone to problems, they can avoid him. Do that and move into the first round, and get life altering money. Or, stay where you are projected in the mid-2nd round, get decent money, but have to get the second contract for life altering money. Also, have to hope his actions aren't seen adversely by the NFL teams, that other CBs currently behind him don't move in front of him. He doesn't exactly have a career that screams out he's a lock for any huge guarantee. Sunshine and Fields could do this, perhaps a couple others.
 

LawDawg

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Don't blame him one bit. I'd do the same. If you're a projected high pick (like 1st three round projections always get drafted), there's little if any reason to play in what is certainly a mess of a season. Go focus on drills and training to be a pro
There are millions of reasons to go and play. He's not some top of the 1st round lock. Getting drafted in the 1st v. 3rd is huge for life altering money.
 

Camfantasy

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There are millions of reasons to go and play. He's not some top of the 1st round lock. Getting drafted in the 1st v. 3rd is huge for life altering money.


He'll be fine. He's one of those guys that will shine in a combine atmosphere. I touched on this in the other thread, but he's also got other baggage affecting his decision other than just draft position.
 

wildturkey

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There are millions of reasons to go and play. He's not some top of the 1st round lock. Getting drafted in the 1st v. 3rd is huge for life altering money.

He's got enough tape out there where its not going to dramatically alter his spot. He's a projected 1st rounder, not a lock. He knows that grade means he's not guaranteed a spot in the 1st round but will likely be a 2nd or at the very least 3rd round pick. He'll be fine.
 

Thiefery

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On the radio, they said he's still recovering from back surgery and he lost his mom due to cancer not too long ago. After the season plays out I highly doubt he will be a first rd pick, like many are saying right now.
 

LawDawg

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He's got enough tape out there where its not going to dramatically alter his spot. He's a projected 1st rounder, not a lock. He knows that grade means he's not guaranteed a spot in the 1st round but will likely be a 2nd or at the very least 3rd round pick. He'll be fine.
You don't understand "tape" and you don't understand NFL finances if you think there isn't a significant difference between a spot in the 1st or a spot in the 3rd.

Most people here, other than VT fans posting, don't even know who this guy is. This isn't Fields or Lawrence, or Chase Young and other non-QBs in the past that we all heard of. He's played in 23 games. He's had an ACL and missed the last two games last year for having back issues. There will be a couple dozen really good CBs playing this year (all this assumes we play this year, of course) trying to get past him. They will be a year older, with another year of college strength and conditioning and nutrition, with 13 more recent games on tape. Go look at where CBs go in the draft.

Walter Football, a well known source doesn't even have him listed, which is interesting: WalterFootball.com: 2021 NFL Draft: CB Rankings

DraftSite has min 9th: Cornerback Draft Picks (2021) - NFL - DraftSite.com

PFN has him 1: The top 10 cornerback rankings for the 2021 NFL Draft | PFN

CBSSports has him 4th: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/cornerbacks/cornerbacks

That type of inconsistency would make me lean toward need to prove what you can do.

None of this should be read that I have a problem with his decision. It's his decision, and we all make decisions like this in your lives. My response is more to those saying, "oh, it's no big deal, he'll do fine financially." That's just not true ... there is no way to know that, and all evidence is to the contrary for someone not expected to be a top 2 or 3 pick.
 

wildturkey

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You don't understand "tape" and you don't understand NFL finances if you think there isn't a significant difference between a spot in the 1st or a spot in the 3rd.

Most people here, other than VT fans posting, don't even know who this guy is. This isn't Fields or Lawrence, or Chase Young and other non-QBs in the past that we all heard of. He's played in 23 games. He's had an ACL and missed the last two games last year for having back issues. There will be a couple dozen really good CBs playing this year (all this assumes we play this year, of course) trying to get past him. They will be a year older, with another year of college strength and conditioning and nutrition, with 13 more recent games on tape. Go look at where CBs go in the draft.

Walter Football, a well known source doesn't even have him listed, which is interesting: WalterFootball.com: 2021 NFL Draft: CB Rankings

DraftSite has min 9th: Cornerback Draft Picks (2021) - NFL - DraftSite.com

PFN has him 1: The top 10 cornerback rankings for the 2021 NFL Draft | PFN

CBSSports has him 4th: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/cornerbacks/cornerbacks

That type of inconsistency would make me lean toward need to prove what you can do.

None of this should be read that I have a problem with his decision. It's his decision, and we all make decisions like this in your lives. My response is more to those saying, "oh, it's no big deal, he'll do fine financially." That's just not true ... there is no way to know that, and all evidence is to the contrary for someone not expected to be a top 2 or 3 pick.

I'm well aware of how it works. Most people here don't know 75% of the players in the draft that aren't on their own teams so that's totally irrelevant. There's plenty of football academies and personal football trainers that offer conditioning and drills that are on par with colleges nowadays. This isn't an issue. You're making it one because you're locked in on the fact that 1st round picks get paid more than 3rd rounders. No shit. Every kid that declares knows that. They're fine with it because they're comfortable with taking some money knowing they can get more on the 2nd contract rather than spend another year in college unpaid taking on a variety of risks that aren't worth it to them.
 

HAL1978

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There will be no football this year. They will try of course. Baseball didn't even make it a week.
 

Thiefery

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There will be no football this year. They will try of course. Baseball didn't even make it a week.
oh baseball is canceled?
 

LawDawg

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I'm well aware of how it works. Most people here don't know 75% of the players in the draft that aren't on their own teams so that's totally irrelevant. There's plenty of football academies and personal football trainers that offer conditioning and drills that are on par with colleges nowadays. This isn't an issue. You're making it one because you're locked in on the fact that 1st round picks get paid more than 3rd rounders. No shit. Every kid that declares knows that. They're fine with it because they're comfortable with taking some money knowing they can get more on the 2nd contract rather than spend another year in college unpaid taking on a variety of risks that aren't worth it to them.
Your response is talking about this like it's happened before, like it's a common thing. Who exactly are all these kids that are comfortable not playing their final year and going to football academies? The only ones I can think of are ones that got injured and decided not to come back. And those were top 5 guys, not a CB no one has heard of. Name the academies and trainers that college football players are going to instead of their last year of college football. This is a new concept to me. Enlightenment me.

You are talking about the second contract like is a done deal. The average NFL player doesn't get to the second contract.

For someone who says everyone knows the difference between 1st and 3rd money, your argument doesn't support that. If you are marginal 1st round, you do everything you can to get to the first round, or at least mid-second round. That's where the fuck you money is, and where the life altering guaranteed money ends.

This is an older graph, but still accurate with regard to guaranteed money. It drops off fast. Keep in mind I am talking FU money, not a half million which is nice, but doesn't set you for life. Do everything you can to get top 48 - that's pretty much guaranteed FU money. This year that's the 53rd draftee got 2 million. After that with taxes, etc., it's no longer FU money, and one could argue 2 mil isn't FU money.

57210b27910584e73c8bf348
 

wildturkey

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Your response is talking about this like it's happened before, like it's a common thing. Who exactly are all these kids that are comfortable not playing their final year and going to football academies? The only ones I can think of are ones that got injured and decided not to come back. And those were top 5 guys, not a CB no one has heard of. Name the academies and trainers that college football players are going to instead of their last year of college football. This is a new concept to me. Enlightenment me.

You are talking about the second contract like is a done deal. The average NFL player doesn't get to the second contract.

For someone who says everyone knows the difference between 1st and 3rd money, your argument doesn't support that. If you are marginal 1st round, you do everything you can to get to the first round, or at least mid-second round. That's where the fuck you money is, and where the life altering guaranteed money ends.

This is an older graph, but still accurate with regard to guaranteed money. It drops off fast. Keep in mind I am talking FU money, not a half million which is nice, but doesn't set you for life. Do everything you can to get top 48 - that's pretty much guaranteed FU money. This year that's the 53rd draftee got 2 million. After that with taxes, etc., it's no longer FU money, and one could argue 2 mil isn't FU money.

57210b27910584e73c8bf348

Look at your chart. Now look at the 2nd round and 3rd round gaps. It's not overly large for non-guaranteed length of contract money. A good player (which is what you're hoping to get in those early rounds) on a rookie contract should be able to get all of that money since they're good enough to stay in the NFL thru the length of that 1st deal. A 1st round projection right now typically means a prospect can feel pretty confident they are going to be drafted somewhere in those early rounds. Prospects like Farley are comfortable being in that range. You've locked yourself into thinking that every prospect should be focused on working as hard as possible to guarantee themselves a high 1st round pick and thus more money upfront. You "can" do that, but there's also other paths you "can" take. It's the same decision plenty of kids make every year without a pandemic whether they should leave early to go pro or stay in school. They have 2 years left, 1 year left whatever and could theoretically improve their stock by playing more, but they're ok with what they've done. And it still works out. The difference this year is the pandemic adds all kinds of different risks and factors. Farley knows all of this. He's comfortable where he's at. Sure, he may have gotten bad draft info but that happens each year to every player. If the info is accurate, sitting out isn't going to cause him to get dramatically leaped frogged by everyone. If his feedback is accurate about being that high of prospect, he's not going to fall to the 7th round or undrafted because he sat out. It's not like sitting out means he forgot how to play football. He's got two years worth of starting game tape out there, which is as much as plenty of other prospects. He'll be training. He'll have the combine and pro days.
 
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