Final 2018 NFL Season Predictions

[Clayton]

AFC:

At some point, the Raiders will miss Mack.
At some point, the Chiefs, Jets and Colts defense will cost them.
At some point, Keenum will not be enough for the Broncos.
At some point, the Texans oline will cost them dearly.
At some point, the Bills might break the interception record. Not the good one
At some point, Tannehill will be have an operation to look exactly like the man he has always been - Sam Bradford
At some point, the Ravens realize that a QB also needs to aim
At some point, the Browns will win a game
At some point, Andy Dalton will do just enough to keep his job
At some point, the Chargers will choke a close game to a good team.
At some point, teams will figure out that they can run on Sacksonville.
At some point, the Steelers will play the Patriots and lose
At some point, the Patriots will be written off only to end the season on a hot streak and win the AFC because there is no god

NFC? Eh...

We're due for Brady vs Rodgers, right?

 

[PhilSimms11]

My final 2018 NFL predictions for the season is as follows:
IN (4): (AFC) BAL, CIN, HOU, LAC
OUT: BUF, JAX, KC, TEN

IN (4): (NFC) DET, GB, NYG, WAS
OUT: ATL, CAR, MIN, PHI

AFC East
(3)NE (10-6)
NYJ (7-9)
MIA (7-9)
BUF (3-13)

AFC North
(1)PIT (11-5)
(5)BAL (10-6)
(6)CIN (9-7)
CLE (4-12)

AFC South
(4)HOU (10-6)
JAX (9-7)
TEN (8-8)
IND (6-10)

AFC West
(2)LAC (11-5)
KC (8-8)
DEN (6-10)
OAK (4-12)
----------
NFC East
(3)WAS (10-6)
(6)NYG (10-6)
PHI (9-7)
DAL (7-9)

NFC North
(4)DET (10-6)
(5)GB (10-6)
MIN (9-7)
CHI (5-11)

NFC South
(1)NO (13-3)
ATL (10-6)
CAR (8-8)
TB (2-14)

NFC West
(2)LAR (12-4)
SEA (8-8)
SF (6-10)
ARZ (4-12)
----------
AFC
(6)CIN @ (3)NE
(5)BAL @ (4)HOU

(5)BAL @ (1)PIT
(3)NE @ (2)LAC

BAL @ LAC
__________________
NFC
(6)NYG @ (3)WAS
(5)GB @ (4)DET

(6)NYG @ (1)NO
(4)DET @ (2)LAR

LAR @ NO

Super Bowl LIII--NO vs BAL

 

[ATL96Steeler]

AFC:

At some point, the Raiders will miss Mack.
At some point, the Chiefs, Jets and Colts defense will cost them.
At some point, Keenum will not be enough for the Broncos.
At some point, the Texans oline will cost them dearly.
At some point, the Bills might break the interception record. Not the good one
At some point, Tannehill will be have an operation to look exactly like the man he has always been - Sam Bradford
At some point, the Ravens realize that a QB also needs to aim
At some point, the Browns will win a game
At some point, Andy Dalton will do just enough to keep his job
At some point, the Chargers will choke a close game to a good team.
At some point, teams will figure out that they can run on Sacksonville.
At some point, the Steelers will play the Patriots and lose
At some point, the Patriots will be written off only to end the season on a hot streak and win the AFC because there is no god

NFC? Eh...

We're due for Brady vs Rodgers, right?

Man...I was agreeing with this post for a long time until end...lol

 

[ATL96Steeler]

AFC.

E....NE
N....PIT
S....HOU
W....LAC

WC...JAX, BAL

NFC

E...PHI
N...GB
S...ATL
W...LAR

WC...MIN,NO

 

[Nelly]

There's no way Minnesota misses the playoffs barring some serious injuries.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Cousins is a compiler. Lots of yards, lots of turnovers and not many wins. Guy is 4 games under .500 career. Smith isn't flashy but he protects the ball, can make all the throws, can beat you with his feet but most importantly he wins

@There is A Moose at 3rd

You have watched film of Smith. Do you agree?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

@There is A Moose at 3rd

You have watched film of Smith. Do you agree?

I think Smith can make most any necessary throw so long as he is allowed to plant in the pocket. He doesn't have great arm strength, most everyone knows this and shoulder injuries and age have not helped him almost assuredly since coming out of college. It's kind of a rigid way to play football, it looks very picturesque, it would not literally be true he can make all the throws, however.

The obvious aside:

Smith was still in many respects, an extremely conservative passer even last year despite phenomenal and very rare deep ball efficiency (but not volume). He will not throw many balls at all into contested coverage until you get in the RZ, where you might see a somewhat more willing passer; but really you want a running game with Smith because you want to make sure you get the cheap rushing TD's and not have to deal with his reticence. That'll work for and against teams in that he will always be towards the best in the league in terms of INT%, but the TD% is always gonna lag behind what it probably ought to be with a QB as smart as he is with his accuracy. It is not that Smith cannot do this, it is moreso... he doesn't too often, and that's that:


But he can do it if he wants; he knows Talib isn't looking back (the receiver is Hill if that helps things)

To marry this reticence with stats, Smith was next to last in AGG% (12.7%) on NFL.com's netgenstats ahead of only CJ Beathard (12.5%) in 2017.

This is how AGG% was defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Some things I can think of that bother me though with Smith

He has to be induced into aggressive behavior. The Chiefs had the most separation in the league-- upon the QB releasing the ball-- last year, and it wasn't close actually. Some of that is Tyreek Hill and Kelce being out there with a 3rd speedy WR out there in Wilson who benefits from being the 3rd receiving option. There's also the not very small fact Andy Reid is the coach; and his system works and his coaching tree being as successful as it is speaks to that fact.


Smith has trouble throwing on the run. There's no sugarcoating it, Smith does not have a ton of armstrength and has a pretty limited number of platforms he can throw from. Neither does Cousins, but Smith's accuracy deteriorates far too much and his ability to throw downfield is mostly limited to his right, if he keeps his eyes up which has been an issue

Eye Discipline: Smith is too eager to run instead of throw. That might be the result of playing for some bad OL's, but regardless, his pocket presence in a vacuum is not good. He will need good protection as sacks can hurt you and kill drives. Not as bad as an INT, true, but they hurt.

As far as any comparison to Cousins go, I think the overall differences are more aesthetic than meaningful upgrade/downgrade. They're both tier 3 QB's. Both can succeed on good teams with quality passing D's and a running game to help alleviate the load in the RZ; Cousins RZ follies are also well documented as are Smith's. Really what it all comes down to is what does last year represent for Smith, an evolution into a more assertive (or if nothing else, more efficient) short/deep-shot style passer with laser sharp accuracy when protected, or a very conservative passer who keeps the boat afloat, but he won't put wind in your teams' sails either.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

There's no way Minnesota misses the playoffs barring some serious injuries.

Cousins would have to flop I'd have to think and really prove his detractors right. I don't see it.

 

[Battlelyon]

AFC EAST
1. Father Time
2. The Butt fumbles
3. Toronto Bills
4. Ray Finkle's Dolphins

AFC SOUTH
1. Bortle's Bunnies
2. Houston Oilers
3. Druken Irsay's
4. Jeff Fisher Mustaches

AFC NORTH
1. Big Ben's Brown Bells
2. Baltimore Broken Birds
3. Browns of the North
4. Browns of the South

AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Mahomes2Watkins Incompletions
3. Manning's Retired Horses
4. Gruden's retirement community

AFC Championship Game
The Bradies over San Diego Chargers

NFC EAST
1. Broken Wing Eagles
2. Adrian Peterson kids
3. Jerrah's Zeke Attacks
4. Eli's last stand

NFC SOUTH
1. Matt Ryan
2. Drew Brees
3. Cam Newton
4. Jailbird Crablegs

NFC NORTH
1. Linebacker U
2. Hayden Fox's screaming eagles
3. Rodger's Sophmores
4. Stafford's Seniors

NFC WEST
1. McVay's Minions
2. Brittle Bradfords
3. Legion of excuses
4. Belichick failed experiment

NFC Championship Game
McVay's Minions over Matt Ryan

SUPER BOWL
McVay's Minions over Father Time

 

[Pattersonca65]

I think Smith can make most any necessary throw so long as he is allowed to plant in the pocket. He doesn't have great arm strength, most everyone knows this and shoulder injuries and age have not helped him almost assuredly since coming out of college. It's kind of a rigid way to play football, it looks very picturesque, it would not literally be true he can make all the throws, however.

The obvious aside:

Smith was still in many respects, an extremely conservative passer even last year despite phenomenal and very rare deep ball efficiency (but not volume). He will not throw many balls at all into contested coverage until you get in the RZ, where you might see a somewhat more willing passer; but really you want a running game with Smith because you want to make sure you get the cheap rushing TD's and not have to deal with his reticence. That'll work for and against teams in that he will always be towards the best in the league in terms of INT%, but the TD% is always gonna lag behind what it probably ought to be with a QB as smart as he is with his accuracy. It is not that Smith cannot do this, it is moreso... he doesn't too often, and that's that:


But he can do it if he wants; he knows Talib isn't looking back (the receiver is Hill if that helps things)

To marry this reticence with stats, Smith was next to last in AGG% (12.7%) on NFL.com's netgenstats ahead of only CJ Beathard (12.5%) in 2017.

This is how AGG% was defined:



Some things I can think of that bother me though with Smith

He has to be induced into aggressive behavior. The Chiefs had the most separation in the league-- upon the QB releasing the ball-- last year, and it wasn't close actually. Some of that is Tyreek Hill and Kelce being out there with a 3rd speedy WR out there in Wilson who benefits from being the 3rd receiving option. There's also the not very small fact Andy Reid is the coach; and his system works and his coaching tree being as successful as it is speaks to that fact.


Smith has trouble throwing on the run. There's no sugarcoating it, Smith does not have a ton of armstrength and has a pretty limited number of platforms he can throw from. Neither does Cousins, but Smith's accuracy deteriorates far too much and his ability to throw downfield is mostly limited to his right, if he keeps his eyes up which has been an issue

Eye Discipline: Smith is too eager to run instead of throw. That might be the result of playing for some bad OL's, but regardless, his pocket presence in a vacuum is not good. He will need good protection as sacks can hurt you and kill drives. Not as bad as an INT, true, but they hurt.

As far as any comparison to Cousins go, I think the overall differences are more aesthetic than meaningful upgrade/downgrade. They're both tier 3 QB's. Both can succeed on good teams with quality passing D's and a running game to help alleviate the load in the RZ; Cousins RZ follies are also well documented as are Smith's. Really what it all comes down to is what does last year represent for Smith, an evolution into a more assertive (or if nothing else, more efficient) short/deep-shot style passer with laser sharp accuracy when protected, or a very conservative passer who keeps the boat afloat, but he won't put wind in your teams' sails either.

Thanks for the long explanation. I saw some of his play in KC and last year seemed to me his best. During his time in SF he would not make all the throws. He didn't throw people open and would too often checkdown instead of trying a pass downfield. His conservative nature did help keep his turnover numbers low. It also helped that he had a stout defense to back him up and solid run game for support. He didn't have to engage in shootouts. Will be interesting to see how it plays out in Washington.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Thanks for the long explanation. I saw some of his play in KC and last year seemed to me his best. During his time in SF he would not make all the throws. He didn't throw people open and would too often checkdown instead of trying a pass downfield. His conservative nature did help keep his turnover numbers low. It also helped that he had a stout defense to back him up and solid run game for support. He didn't have to engage in shootouts. Will be interesting to see how it plays out in Washington.

I am predicting a lot of Smith to Thompson plays.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Since my computer is acting up at work...

AFC EAST:

New England 12-4(2)
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 8-8
Jets 3-13

AFC NORTH:

Pittsburgh 12-4(3)
Cleveland 9-7
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 7-9

AFC SOUTH:

Jacksonville 13-3(1)
Tennessee 10-6(5)
Houston 9-7(6)
Indianapolis 4-12

AFC WEST:

Chargers 10-6(4)
Kansas city 8-8
Denver 7-9
Oakland 6-10

NFC EAST:

Philadelphia 11-5(3)
Dallas 8-8
Washington 7-9
Giants 6-10

NFC North:

Minnesota 13-3(2)
Green Bay 12-4(5)
Chicago 9-7
Detroit 8-8

NFC South:

New Orleans 10-6(4)
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 7-9
Tampa 5-11

NFC West:

Rams 15-1(1)
Seattle 10-6(6)
San Francisco 8-8
Arizona 5-11

 

[PhilSimms11]

From PFT Live:

Josh Alper
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Steelers; 4. Texans; 5. Ravens; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Ravens over Texans, Chiefs over Steelers.
Divisional round: Pats over Chiefs, Chargers over Ravens.
Conference championship: Pats over Chargers.

NFC
1. Rams; 2. Saints; 3. Packers; 4. Eagles; 5. Vikings; 6. Falcons.
Wild card: Packers over Falcons, Vikings over Eagles.
Divisional round: Saints over Packers, Rams over Vikings.
Conference championship: Saints over Rams.
Super Bowl: Saints over Pats.

Curtis Crabtree
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Steelers; 4. Jaguars; 5. Chiefs; 6. Jets.
Wild card: Steelers over Jets, Chiefs over Jaguars.
Divisional round: Patriots over Chiefs, Steelers over Chargers.
Conference championship: Steelers over Patriots.

NFC
1. Vikings; 2. Rams; 3. Eagles; 4. Saints; 5. Panthers; 6. Packers.
Wild card: Eagles over Packers, Panthers over Saints.
Divisional round: Vikings over Panthers, Eagles over Rams.
Conference championship: Vikings over Eagles.
Super Bowl: Vikings over Steelers.

Mike Florio
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Ravens; 3. Texans; 4. Chiefs; 5. Steelers; 6. Jaguars.
Wild card: Texans over Jaguars, Steelers over Chiefs.
Divisional round: Patriots over Steelers, Ravens over Texans.
Conference championship: Ravens over Patriots.

NFC
1. Packers; 2. Saints; 3. Seahawks; 4. Eagles; 5. Vikings; 6. Rams.
Wild card: Seahawks over Rams, Eagles over Vikings.
Divisional round: Packers over Eagles, Saints over Seahawks.
Conference championship: Packers over Saints.
Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens.

Darin Gantt
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Jaguars; 4. Steelers; 5. Texans; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Jaguars over Chiefs, Texans over Steelers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Texans, Jaguars over Chargers.
Conference Championship: Patriots over Jaguars.

NFC
1. Eagles; 2. Packers; 3. Falcons; 4. Rams; 5. Panthers; 6. 49ers.
Wild card: Falcons over 49ers, Rams over Panthers.
Divisional round: Eagles over Falcons, Packers over Rams.
Conference championship: Packers over Eagles.
Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots.

Michael David Smith
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Steelers; 3. Jaguars; 4. Chargers; 5. Texans; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Chiefs over Jaguars, Texans over Chargers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Chiefs, Steelers over Texans.
Conference championship: Patriots over Steelers.

NFC
1. Rams; 2. Packers; 3. Eagles; 4. Saints; 5. Falcons; 6. 49ers.
Wild card: Eagles over 49ers, Saints over Falcons.
Divisional round: Rams over Saints, Packers over Eagles.
Conference championship: Rams over Packers.
Super Bowl: Rams over Patriots.

Charean Williams
AFC
1. Steelers; 2. Patriots; 3. Texans; 4. Chargers; 5. Jaguars; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Texans over Chiefs, Jaguars over Chargers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Jaguars, Steelers over Texans.
Conference championship: Steelers over Patriots.

NFC
1. Falcons; 2. Rams; 3. Vikings; 4. Cowboys; 5. Eagles; 6. Packers.
Wild card: Packers over Vikings, Eagles over Cowboys.
Divisional round: Falcons over Packers, Rams over Eagles.
Conference championship: Falcons over Rams.
Super Bowl: Falcons over Steelers.

PhilSimms11
AFC
1. Steelers; 2. Chargers; 3. Patriots; 4. Texans; 5. Ravens; 6. Bengals.
Wild card: Bengals @ Patriots<, Ravens< @ Texans
Divisional: Ravens< @ Steelers, Patriots @ Chargers<
Conference championship: Ravens< @ Chargers

NFC
1. Saints; 2. Rams; 3. Redskins; 4. Lions; 5. Packers; 6. Giants.
Wild card: Giants< @ Redskins, Packers @ Lions<
Divisional: Giants @ Saints<, Lions @ Rams<
Conference championship: Rams @ Saints<
Super Bowl: Saints< vs Ravens

New playoff team in BOLD.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Playoffs:

Wildcard:

Seattle 33 Philadelphia 31( Gw TD Wilson to Lockett with :00)
Chargers 24 Titans 13
Packers 38 Saints 10
Pittsburgh 17 Texans 27

Divisonal:

Jaguars 31 Texans 13 ( game is under domination though)
Packers 24 Minnesota 17 ( Mr. Hail Mary, hits one in the playoffs)
Rams 31 Seahawks 28 ( Zuerlein hits a GWFG with :04 left)
Patriots 27 Chargers 13

Championship

Patriots 17 Jaguars 14
.Packers 37 Rams 7

Superbowl
.
Packers 31 Patriots 20

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Playoffs:

Wildcard:

Seattle 33 Philadelphia 31( Gw TD Wilson to Lockett with :00)
Chargers 24 Titans 13
Packers 38 Saints 10
Pittsburgh 17 Texans 27

Divisonal:

Jaguars 31 Texans 13 ( game is under domination though)
Packers 24 Minnesota 17 ( Mr. Hail Mary, hits one in the playoffs)
Rams 31 Seahawks 28 ( Zuerlein hits a GWFG with :04 left)
Patriots 27 Chargers 13

Championship

Patriots 17 Jaguars 14
.Packers 37 Rams 7

Superbowl
.
Packers 31 Patriots 20

you guys put a lot of time & effort into these.

Some I agree with & some I may not, but if I may make one point here, which is hard for me to believe.

Do you really think the Packers defense will hold a Saints Offense to just 10 points?

 

[Judge Fudge]

you guys put a lot of time & effort into these.

Some I agree with & some I may not, but if I may make one point here, which is hard for me to believe.

Do you really think the Packers defense will hold a Saints Offense to just 10 points?

Sometimes I just pull numbers out of the top of my head. Could be 17 or 20

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

From PFT Live:

Josh Alper
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Steelers; 4. Texans; 5. Ravens; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Ravens over Texans, Chiefs over Steelers.
Divisional round: Pats over Chiefs, Chargers over Ravens.
Conference championship: Pats over Chargers.

NFC
1. Rams; 2. Saints; 3. Packers; 4. Eagles; 5. Vikings; 6. Falcons.
Wild card: Packers over Falcons, Vikings over Eagles.
Divisional round: Saints over Packers, Rams over Vikings.
Conference championship: Saints over Rams.
Super Bowl: Saints over Pats.

Curtis Crabtree
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Steelers; 4. Jaguars; 5. Chiefs; 6. Jets.
Wild card: Steelers over Jets, Chiefs over Jaguars.
Divisional round: Patriots over Chiefs, Steelers over Chargers.
Conference championship: Steelers over Patriots.

NFC
1. Vikings; 2. Rams; 3. Eagles; 4. Saints; 5. Panthers; 6. Packers.
Wild card: Eagles over Packers, Panthers over Saints.
Divisional round: Vikings over Panthers, Eagles over Rams.
Conference championship: Vikings over Eagles.
Super Bowl: Vikings over Steelers.

Mike Florio
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Ravens; 3. Texans; 4. Chiefs; 5. Steelers; 6. Jaguars.
Wild card: Texans over Jaguars, Steelers over Chiefs.
Divisional round: Patriots over Steelers, Ravens over Texans.
Conference championship: Ravens over Patriots.

NFC
1. Packers; 2. Saints; 3. Seahawks; 4. Eagles; 5. Vikings; 6. Rams.
Wild card: Seahawks over Rams, Eagles over Vikings.
Divisional round: Packers over Eagles, Saints over Seahawks.
Conference championship: Packers over Saints.
Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens.

Darin Gantt
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Chargers; 3. Jaguars; 4. Steelers; 5. Texans; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Jaguars over Chiefs, Texans over Steelers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Texans, Jaguars over Chargers.
Conference Championship: Patriots over Jaguars.

NFC
1. Eagles; 2. Packers; 3. Falcons; 4. Rams; 5. Panthers; 6. 49ers.
Wild card: Falcons over 49ers, Rams over Panthers.
Divisional round: Eagles over Falcons, Packers over Rams.
Conference championship: Packers over Eagles.
Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots.

Michael David Smith
AFC
1. Patriots; 2. Steelers; 3. Jaguars; 4. Chargers; 5. Texans; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Chiefs over Jaguars, Texans over Chargers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Chiefs, Steelers over Texans.
Conference championship: Patriots over Steelers.

NFC
1. Rams; 2. Packers; 3. Eagles; 4. Saints; 5. Falcons; 6. 49ers.
Wild card: Eagles over 49ers, Saints over Falcons.
Divisional round: Rams over Saints, Packers over Eagles.
Conference championship: Rams over Packers.
Super Bowl: Rams over Patriots.

Charean Williams
AFC
1. Steelers; 2. Patriots; 3. Texans; 4. Chargers; 5. Jaguars; 6. Chiefs.
Wild card: Texans over Chiefs, Jaguars over Chargers.
Divisional round: Patriots over Jaguars, Steelers over Texans.
Conference championship: Steelers over Patriots.

NFC
1. Falcons; 2. Rams; 3. Vikings; 4. Cowboys; 5. Eagles; 6. Packers.
Wild card: Packers over Vikings, Eagles over Cowboys.
Divisional round: Falcons over Packers, Rams over Eagles.
Conference championship: Falcons over Rams.
Super Bowl: Falcons over Steelers.

PhilSimms11
AFC
1. Steelers; 2. Chargers; 3. Patriots; 4. Texans; 5. Ravens; 6. Bengals.
Wild card: Bengals @ Patriots<, Ravens< @ Texans
Divisional: Ravens< @ Steelers, Patriots @ Chargers<
Conference championship: Ravens< @ Chargers

NFC
1. Saints; 2. Rams; 3. Redskins; 4. Lions; 5. Packers; 6. Giants.
Wild card: Giants< @ Redskins, Packers @ Lions<
Divisional: Giants @ Saints<, Lions @ Rams<
Conference championship: Rams @ Saints<
Super Bowl: Saints< vs Ravens

New playoff team in BOLD.

Interesting picks my Sims. Giants and Redskins in the playoffs? Chargers are the two seed over New England. Ravens winning the SB?

 

[PhilSimms11]

Interesting picks my Sims. Giants and Redskins in the playoffs? Chargers are the two seed over New England. Ravens winning the SB?

I have the Saints winning the Super Bowl.

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

I have the Saints winning the Super Bowl.

Woops... took that as a greater than not an arrow. You’re right

 

[PhilSimms11]

Woops... took that as a greater than not an arrow. You’re right

That's right. I'm not as insane as you thought.