Fantasy Points Per Round for Each Position

[averagejoe]

We've had discussions on WHEN to draft certain players. Some firmly believe in the RB/RB philosophy. Others will go RB/WR. And then there are those who subscribe to the "Stud QB 1st" strategy.

I went back to last year's (2013's) ADP and assigned the "End of Season" fantasy points to those players based on where they were originally pegged to be drafted - NOT where they finished.

From this I was able to average their fantasy scores to see where the value was. Or not was.

I'm sure there are plenty of holes in this since the sample size is a single season. Nevertheless, here's the averages of each position in each round. The number in parenthesis is the number of players taken that round (based on ADP). Note: as things got a little thin toward the later rounds, I combined the rounds. Note 2: I removed D/ST and K from the ADP.

Round 1
RB = 156.4 (8)
QB = 361.5 (2)
WR = 248.0 (2)

Round 2
RB = 247.3 (3)
QB = 412.0 (3)
WR = 190.5 (4)
TE = 166.0 (2)

Round 3
RB = 138.3 (6)
WR = 111.3 (6)

Round 4
RB = 127.0 (3)
QB = 324.0 (2)
WR = 115.4 (7)

Round 5
RB = 143.0 (2)
QB = 324.6 (3)
WR = 132.0 (5)
TE = 68.0 (2)

Round 6
RB = 67.0 (3)
QB = 335.5 (2)
WR = 129.4 (5)
TE = 88.5 (2)

Round 7
RB = 30.6 (3)
QB = 221.0 (1)
WR = 78.2 (5)
TE = 103.6 (3)

Rounds 8 - 10
RB = 87.8 (14)
QB = 245.2 (6)
WR = 84.9 (11)
TE = 76.0 (5)

Rounds 11 - 14
RB = 73.1 (24)
QB = 210.6 (5)
WR = 84.5 (14)
TE = 50.0 (5)

 

[averagejoe]

One thing that stands out is the first round in 2013 was not good for the RB position. Lots of disappointment and injury. But round 2 and 3 RB did very well on average. Better than their first round counterparts.

Based on ADP last season, Peyton Manning went in the 2nd round. His points really skew the position. But for those that don't latch on to a QB early, as you can see, that is one position that pretty much retained their value in rounds 4 thru 6.

Look at the WR. If you didn't get an "elite" one by the end of round 2, the dropoff was significant.

Based on last year, it looks like you should draft WR/RB/RB/WR/QB.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

One thing that stands out is the first round in 2013 was not good for the RB position. Lots of disappointment and injury. But round 2 and 3 RB did very well on average. Better than their first round counterparts.

Based on ADP last season, Peyton Manning went in the 2nd round. His points really skew the position. But for those that don't latch on to a QB early, as you can see, that is one position that pretty much retained their value in rounds 4 thru 6.

Look at the WR. If you didn't get an "elite" one by the end of round 2, the dropoff was significant.

Based on last year, it looks like you should draft WR/RB/RB/WR/QB.

TE was more dramatic of a drop off... but that is obvious, since there really is only one TE to take in the first 2 rounds...

 

[Chef99]

One thing that stands out is the first round in 2013 was not good for the RB position. Lots of disappointment and injury. But round 2 and 3 RB did very well on average. Better than their first round counterparts.

Based on ADP last season, Peyton Manning went in the 2nd round. His points really skew the position. But for those that don't latch on to a QB early, as you can see, that is one position that pretty much retained their value in rounds 4 thru 6.

Look at the WR. If you didn't get an "elite" one by the end of round 2, the dropoff was significant.

Based on last year, it looks like you should draft WR/RB/RB/WR/QB.

This is something I was wondering about when we did Suicide. RBs went flying right off the bat (for the most part), but isn't the game gearing toward "pass first" more than ever now?

 

[averagejoe]

Based on the averages, if your draft went something like the following scenarios, then this may have been your fantasy weekly result:

RB/QB/WR/RB/TE/WR = 71.7

RB/WR/RB/WR/QB/TE = 72.4

RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/QB = 73.8

QB/TE/WR/RB/RB/WR = 74.1

QB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE = 74.1

QB/RB/WR/RB/WR/TE = 76.2

WR/WR/RB/RB/QB/TE = 79.7

WR/RB/RB/QB/WR/TE = 84.1

 

[averagejoe]

This is something I was wondering about when we did Suicide. RBs went flying right off the bat (for the most part), but isn't the game gearing toward "pass first" more than ever now?

I think when someone has been successful drafting with a certain strategy, he's probably convinced that his method is the best one, even if others don't see his reasoning.

The "pass first" concept is deep. You can probably find various arguments either way. That said, one of the stats that I collect at the end of the year is the play-calling. Believe it or not, the ratio between running and passing is closer than you think. Even the pass-happy Broncos still ran 41% of the time versus 59% passing. (And the team that passed more than anyone (percentage-wise) was the Falcons (67% - 33%), and next was the Browns (66% - 34%). But the Falcons and Browns passed out of necessity, not out of proficiency.)

Besides, many "pass first" teams will still dump the ball off to a RB, which still may involve the RB more often than a WR (if you include rush attempts).

 

[TREFF]

This is something I was wondering about when we did Suicide. RBs went flying right off the bat (for the most part), but isn't the game gearing toward "pass first" more than ever now?

My take on that is this-
If more teams are passing more often, than , on average, the QB's and WR'S are thus watered down. More QB's with good numbers, more WR's with startable numbers. It used to be that no one would touch a #3 receiver from any team, but now there are quite a few #3's that could be started any given week.
And likewise, if teams are passing more, they are running less, which makes those few RB's who do get 20+ touches a game even more valuable.

On the flipside, more passing in general does increase the value of those top tier guys, both QB's and WR's, so it's good news for them. It just creates an exceptional fat middle tier along with it.

 

[tlance]

On a kind of semi-related note:

1 thing I have noticed over the years is that the market tends to over-react to last season's position trends in the early rounds.

Two years ago, everyone was drafting QBs (Brady, Rogers, Brees, Cam, Stafford all possible first round picks). Then RBs bounced back and last season's first round was completely dominated by RBs. This year, I see elite WRs gaining more steam than they have had in the past.

My take-

The first round probably should be more evenly distributed every year. Yes, changes will take place over time, but for the current era a healthy round 1 distribution looks something like this:

RB: 7-9
QB: 0-2
WR: 1-2
TE: 0-1

In other words, if you follow last year's data too closely you are likely to get hurt. The poor schmuck who drafts the 11th RB in round 1 is probably passing up a better value somewhere else, just like the 3rd guy to draft a WR or QB.

Every season is different and I think that focusing too much on short term trends can lead owners to make bad decisions on draft day. Finding yourself at the back end of a first round position run could leave your team without a single elite performer.

 

[leftypower]

Very interesting stuff Joe, of course as you stated it is a small sample in statistical terms but it does seem to point that the traditional thinking of RB/RB is being strongly challenged. There are a few other take away's from this not mentioned previously; first draft position is not considered so where you are and who's there is an obvious factor when applied to what is your best strategy. Second, one glowing point noticed is the round 5 & 6 WR numbers (ie, pretty significantly greater than 3 & 4). Not sure what to make of that other than everyone did a fine job in those rounds getting value. Third, the significant difference in the top 5 QB's over the others, as well as the parity afterwards - but it makes perfect sense.