ESPN Insider

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Anyone here have Insider. ESPN has some article about how we are a bad team for October.

San Francisco Giants are not built to win the World Series - MLB - ESPN

only saw short intro. Says Cain and Bumgarner are both Top 30 SP's.

So what Cain isn't Top 20? Seriously???

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

found it posted on a message board

Giants not built for October

The sad fact is that San Francisco is not equipped to win it allUpdated: October 1, 2012, 1:14 PM ETBy Paul Swydan | FanGraphs Recommend91Comments130EmailPrint

Kelley L Cox/US Presswire
Tim Lincecum’s struggles highlight the lack of reliability among Giants pitchers.

The San Francisco Giants will finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings for the eighth straight week, and in 16 of the final 17. The Giants finished with three straight fifth-place rankings, the highest they have been ranked this season. And still, the Giants have no chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants have played well this season, and they have been red hot in September, but they are a thin team that has feasted on inferior competition. Buster Posey is one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are top-30 pitchers. But outside of that, the quality dips quickly.
Pablo Sandoval is someone the team needs to be a star, but according to both wOBA and wRC+ he has not been a top-10 third baseman this season. Angel Pagan has been good but streaky — in two months, he has compiled an OPS of .884 or higher, but in the other four months he has compiled an OPS of .760 or lower. Hunter Pence has turned back into the average outfielder that he was prior to last year. In September, Marco Scutaro and Brandon Belt have been the team’s second- and third-best hitters, and both are rocking BABIP’s well above their previously established norms.

Despite this lack of depth, which has forced the team to play retreads Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady down the stretch, the team has chosen to sit atop Mount Pious and banish Melky Cabrera from even having a shot to contribute in the postseason. This shortsighted decision will leave them either playing the Blanco/Nady combo in left, or pushing Belt and Posey to suboptimal defensive positions — Belt in left and Posey at first — so that Hector Sanchez and his 2.3 walk rate (lowest in the NL among those with at least 200 plate appearances) can catch. Neither option is palatable, and even if Cabrera wasn’t 100 percent when he came back, he would have been a better contributor than Blanco, Nady or Sanchez. This lack of depth offensively would also be felt in a major way if San Francisco were to ultimately reach the World Series, as they do not have an obvious candidate for designated hitter.

Reaching the World Series seems a bit far-fetched at this point, however. Pitching becomes paramount in the postseason, and at this point the Giants rotation essentially amounts to “Bumgarner, Cain and pray for rain.” Both starters have pitched consistently well throughout the season, but after that, things get shaky. On Sunday, Tim Lincecum became just the 11th pitcher in Petco Park history to allow three or more home runs in a single outing, and after the game he had to confirm that he would actually be part of the postseason starting rotation. That this was even a question shows how far the two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen. His 4.19 FIP is more than a half-run worse than his rookie season and is by far the worst mark of his career. The picture isn’t much rosier for Ryan Vogelsong. While the right-hander has better numbers for the season, he has been cuffed around lately. After compiling a 2.36 first-half ERA, he has struggled to a 5.11 ERA since the All-Star break.

Relief efforts
A look at how each contender has fared in terms of shutdowns verus meltdowns.

Team SD/MD MLB Rank
Orioles 2.75 1
Braves 2.72 2
Athletics 2.57 3
Rangers 2.50 4
Rays 2.42 5
Dodgers 2.23 6
Nationals 2.15 7
Reds 2.08 8
Yankees 1.98 12
Tigers 1.81 15
White Sox 1.67 18
Giants 1.48 22
Angels 1.37 25
Cardinals 1.36 26

In most seasons, this might not be as big of an issue, as the Giants generally have a rock-solid bullpen. That has not been the case this season. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, which is a more evolved measuring stick than saves and blown saves, the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the game, a sharp contrast to the past two seasons. Their SD/MD ratio is 22nd overall and ranks 12th among the 14 teams who have either clinched postseason berths or are still in the running (see table). Looking at context neutral wins, or WPA/LI, which is also a great way to look at reliever performance, we can see the Giants have slid here as well. In 2010 and 2011, they produced top-10 units, but this season they have slipped all the way to 28th in baseball — only the Cubs and Astros have been worse.

It’s not hard to see why. The team’s best reliever, Sergio Romo, has to be treated with kid gloves. The fragile righty has averaged well under an inning per appearance in his career, and has never thrown more than 62 innings in the regular season. This season, he has logged appearances on three straight days only twice — once in mid-May, and then again right after the All-Star break, when he had a few extra days of rest. Romo is terrific when he pitches, but on days that he is unavailable, the Giants bullpen is woefully thin. Jeremy Affeldt has 16 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns this season, and he may be the next-best option. Rookie George Kontos is the only other pitcher in the zip code, and he has more meltdowns than shutdowns for the season himself.

Despite the lack of depth, the Giants have been at their best this month — their .704 September winning percentage (19-8) is their best of the season. But that is a bit misleading, as they have played cream puffs or familiar division rivals the entire month. The only time this month that their opponent was playing for something was during a three-game set with the Dodgers. Good teams have to throttle the bad competition, and the Giants have done that, going 43-40 (while being outscored) against teams that are .500 or better, and 50-26 against everyone else.

Technically, every team that reaches October has a chance to win the World Series, simply because they have a ticket to the dance. But while the Giants have punched their dance card, it may be quickly discarded. Posey, Matt and Bumgarner are three of baseball’s best players, but outside of them, the Giants have very few sure things. The Giants have scored plenty of runs in the second half, but many of their hitters are playing over their heads, and the overall depth is still thin. The same is true of the team’s pitching, and on nights when Lincecum and Vogelsong pitch, San Francisco will likely need to ladle on the runs in order to win. Every team has a shot to win, but even though they will avoid the play-in game, the Giants will face longer odds than their National League counterparts this October.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm sure a similar analysis of the 2010 team would look a lot like this, with the slant being that they don't have anywhere near enough hitting to win the WS, with Huff their only good hitter not playing way above career norms.

You either get lucky/hot in the playoffs or you don't. All the playoff teams are good enough to win, the one that gets the most breaks will win.

The article is correct that pitching is the only randomness reducer, and our pitching isn't historically awesome like 2010. But it's good enough to win, if we get the breaks, which every winner needs to get.

Random!

 

[tzill]

So, to sum up this pantshatter:

The Giants can't win b/c their struggling players suck, and their surging players can't sustain it. Let me cherry pick FIP when it suits me, and then revert to ERA when it suits me. Timmah had a bad start and therefore he'll suck in the playoffs. I'll ignore Zito b/c that doesn't fit my take. The bullpen doesn't look good in my "shutdown/meltdown" metric and is therefore going to suck.

Pagan? Streaky, so dismiss. Lord knows he can't have one of his hot streaks in October. Scutaro? Playing over his head, and will crash and burn in October. Sandoval? Sub AS level, do discount him. (whisper) posey is ok, moving on...ignore Pence's RBI total, he merely was having a career year in 2011 and is "average." Belt? See Scutaro, due to crash and burn. Nady and Blanco? Has beens or never weres...ignore. Crawford? Who is he?

What a fucking tool.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

guys you have to remember streaks NEVER carry over into the playoffs NEV.........oh wait nevermind

Only the best teams like the Yankees can compete for a World Ser.......damn't again.

Ok.ok I got it this time

Giants lack any playoff experi......DAMN


OH I GOT IT! Giants didn't make the playoffs past 1 years, so naturally they can't win it

 

[filosofy29]

found it posted on a message board

Giants not built for October

The sad fact is that San Francisco is not equipped to win it allUpdated: October 1, 2012, 1:14 PM ETBy Paul Swydan | FanGraphs Recommend91Comments130EmailPrint

Kelley L Cox/US Presswire
Tim Lincecum’s struggles highlight the lack of reliability among Giants pitchers.

The San Francisco Giants will finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings for the eighth straight week, and in 16 of the final 17. The Giants finished with three straight fifth-place rankings, the highest they have been ranked this season. And still, the Giants have no chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants have played well this season, and they have been red hot in September, but they are a thin team that has feasted on inferior competition. Buster Posey is one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are top-30 pitchers. But outside of that, the quality dips quickly.
Pablo Sandoval is someone the team needs to be a star, but according to both wOBA and wRC+ he has not been a top-10 third baseman this season. Angel Pagan has been good but streaky — in two months, he has compiled an OPS of .884 or higher, but in the other four months he has compiled an OPS of .760 or lower. Hunter Pence has turned back into the average outfielder that he was prior to last year. In September, Marco Scutaro and Brandon Belt have been the team’s second- and third-best hitters, and both are rocking BABIP’s well above their previously established norms.

Despite this lack of depth, which has forced the team to play retreads Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady down the stretch, the team has chosen to sit atop Mount Pious and banish Melky Cabrera from even having a shot to contribute in the postseason. This shortsighted decision will leave them either playing the Blanco/Nady combo in left, or pushing Belt and Posey to suboptimal defensive positions — Belt in left and Posey at first — so that Hector Sanchez and his 2.3 walk rate (lowest in the NL among those with at least 200 plate appearances) can catch. Neither option is palatable, and even if Cabrera wasn’t 100 percent when he came back, he would have been a better contributor than Blanco, Nady or Sanchez. This lack of depth offensively would also be felt in a major way if San Francisco were to ultimately reach the World Series, as they do not have an obvious candidate for designated hitter.

Reaching the World Series seems a bit far-fetched at this point, however. Pitching becomes paramount in the postseason, and at this point the Giants rotation essentially amounts to “Bumgarner, Cain and pray for rain.” Both starters have pitched consistently well throughout the season, but after that, things get shaky. On Sunday, Tim Lincecum became just the 11th pitcher in Petco Park history to allow three or more home runs in a single outing, and after the game he had to confirm that he would actually be part of the postseason starting rotation. That this was even a question shows how far the two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen. His 4.19 FIP is more than a half-run worse than his rookie season and is by far the worst mark of his career. The picture isn’t much rosier for Ryan Vogelsong. While the right-hander has better numbers for the season, he has been cuffed around lately. After compiling a 2.36 first-half ERA, he has struggled to a 5.11 ERA since the All-Star break.

Relief efforts
A look at how each contender has fared in terms of shutdowns verus meltdowns.

Team SD/MD MLB Rank
Orioles 2.75 1
Braves 2.72 2
Athletics 2.57 3
Rangers 2.50 4
Rays 2.42 5
Dodgers 2.23 6
Nationals 2.15 7
Reds 2.08 8
Yankees 1.98 12
Tigers 1.81 15
White Sox 1.67 18
Giants 1.48 22
Angels 1.37 25
Cardinals 1.36 26

In most seasons, this might not be as big of an issue, as the Giants generally have a rock-solid bullpen. That has not been the case this season. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, which is a more evolved measuring stick than saves and blown saves, the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the game, a sharp contrast to the past two seasons. Their SD/MD ratio is 22nd overall and ranks 12th among the 14 teams who have either clinched postseason berths or are still in the running (see table). Looking at context neutral wins, or WPA/LI, which is also a great way to look at reliever performance, we can see the Giants have slid here as well. In 2010 and 2011, they produced top-10 units, but this season they have slipped all the way to 28th in baseball — only the Cubs and Astros have been worse.

It’s not hard to see why. The team’s best reliever, Sergio Romo, has to be treated with kid gloves. The fragile righty has averaged well under an inning per appearance in his career, and has never thrown more than 62 innings in the regular season. This season, he has logged appearances on three straight days only twice — once in mid-May, and then again right after the All-Star break, when he had a few extra days of rest. Romo is terrific when he pitches, but on days that he is unavailable, the Giants bullpen is woefully thin. Jeremy Affeldt has 16 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns this season, and he may be the next-best option. Rookie George Kontos is the only other pitcher in the zip code, and he has more meltdowns than shutdowns for the season himself.

Despite the lack of depth, the Giants have been at their best this month — their .704 September winning percentage (19-8) is their best of the season. But that is a bit misleading, as they have played cream puffs or familiar division rivals the entire month. The only time this month that their opponent was playing for something was during a three-game set with the Dodgers. Good teams have to throttle the bad competition, and the Giants have done that, going 43-40 (while being outscored) against teams that are .500 or better, and 50-26 against everyone else.

Technically, every team that reaches October has a chance to win the World Series, simply because they have a ticket to the dance. But while the Giants have punched their dance card, it may be quickly discarded. Posey, Matt and Bumgarner are three of baseball’s best players, but outside of them, the Giants have very few sure things. The Giants have scored plenty of runs in the second half, but many of their hitters are playing over their heads, and the overall depth is still thin. The same is true of the team’s pitching, and on nights when Lincecum and Vogelsong pitch, San Francisco will likely need to ladle on the runs in order to win. Every team has a shot to win, but even though they will avoid the play-in game, the Giants will face longer odds than their National League counterparts this October.

LOL. For all I know, the Giants will be swept in the first round.....that said, the above is so laughable, it must have been written by a Dodger fan around 10:15pm last night. What a fucking tool bag. Everybody that is playing hot will fade and the Giants only possess 3 real players. Gotcha.

 

[SF11704]

Maybe when it all comes down to a final point .... no team is built for October. I think you try and build for a 162 game season and then when you get to the playoffs you need somethings to break your way. As good as we were in 2010 I'm not sure what actually happens if Brooks Conrad doesn't play for Atlanta ..... and Cody Ross doesn't take the Philth apart with a great offensive show ... IMHO I think Pence is going to be our Cody Ross in 2012 ... Zito will make us think abiout signing him for 2013 .....

 

[msgkings322]

Maybe when it all comes down to a final point .... no team is built for October. I think you try and build for a 162 game season and then when you get to the playoffs you need somethings to break your way. As good as we were in 2010 I'm not sure what actually happens if Brooks Conrad doesn't play for Atlanta ..... and Cody Ross doesn't take the Philth apart with a great offensive show ... IMHO I think Pence is going to be our Cody Ross in 2012 ... Zito will make us think abiout signing him for 2013 .....

Agree 100%, same thing I've been saying. The WS winners are the winners of a SSS luckfest.

Zito is already signed for 2013...the buyout is for 2014, although some have mentioned if he keeps this up we possibly don't buy him out at all, or we do and then renegotiate to keep him around.

 

[gp956]

I'm sure a similar analysis of the 2010 team would look a lot like this, with the slant being that they don't have anywhere near enough hitting to win the WS, with Huff their only good hitter not playing way above career norms.

You either get lucky/hot in the playoffs or you don't. All the playoff teams are good enough to win, the one that gets the most breaks will win.

The article is correct that pitching is the only randomness reducer, and our pitching isn't historically awesome like 2010. But it's good enough to win, if we get the breaks, which every winner needs to get.

Random!

In my MLB video game, the Giants never win the 2010 World Series no matter many times I play it.

 

[tzill]

Maybe when it all comes down to a final point .... no team is built for October. I think you try and build for a 162 game season and then when you get to the playoffs you need somethings to break your way. As good as we were in 2010 I'm not sure what actually happens if Brooks Conrad doesn't play for Atlanta ..... and Cody Ross doesn't take the Philth apart with a great offensive show ... IMHO I think Pence is going to be our Cody Ross in 2012 ... Zito will make us think abiout signing him for 2013 .....

::standing on chair clapping::

Post...of...the...DAY!

 

[SFGRTB]

And according to Tom Verducci, the Giants are the (new) ideal formula for winning.

 

[calsnowskier]

I would be interested, only for comparison's sake, in seeing this DB's evaluation of the other 9 teams. What IS needed to win the WS, in his view?

 

[SFGRTB]

I would be interested, only for comparison's sake, in seeing this DB's evaluation of the other 9 teams. What IS needed to win the WS, in his view?

He's a HUGE numbers guy, seems to get lost in them.


And he's a bitter Rockies and Red Sox fan.

 

[Robotech]

In my MLB video game, the Giants never win the 2010 World Series no matter many times I play it.

LOL. I won 5 World Series in a row with the Giants in my video game. However, I did create and add Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Willie McCovey to those teams.

This author is a tool. I think he is a Red Sox fan. The Giants have the pitching to compete with anyone in October, and the offense has really picked it up with the additions of Pence and Scutaro and the improvement of Belt and Crawford. Plus, we've got the NL MVP on our squad.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

WTF is this shutdown/meltdown crap? We have 6 dudes in the withers all have 2.84 eras or far less, but only Romo is good and even he is a little flower. I agree the rest beyond those 6 are gascans, so what? They won't be on the roster.

Vogelsong is crap and is getting cuffed around lately... Hmmm, if by lately you mean not his last 3 starts, but only that bizarre string of starts when he sucked then, ok I guess?

Everyone else sucks for some reason or another except Posey

You might be able to make some case as to why the Giants might not win, but this wasn't it. I hope he didn't get paid for that crap.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

guys you have to remember streaks NEVER carry over into the playoffs NEV.........oh wait nevermind

Only the best teams like the Yankees can compete for a World Ser.......damn't again.

Ok.ok I got it this time

Giants lack any playoff experi......DAMN


OH I GOT IT! Giants didn't make the playoffs past 1 years, so naturally they can't win it

Damn those past 1 years! :mmph:

 

[Heathbar012]

WTF is this shutdown/meltdown crap? We have 6 dudes in the withers all have 2.84 eras or far less, but only Romo is good and even he is a little flower. I agree the rest beyond those 6 are gascans, so what? They won't be on the roster.

Vogelsong is crap and is getting cuffed around lately... Hmmm, if by lately you mean not his last 3 starts, but only that bizarre string of starts when he sucked then, ok I guess?

Everyone else sucks for some reason or another except Posey

You might be able to make some case as to why the Giants might not win, but this wasn't it. I hope he didn't get paid for that crap.

Phantom Rep.

 

[msgkings322]

found it posted on a message board

Giants not built for October

The sad fact is that San Francisco is not equipped to win it allUpdated: October 1, 2012, 1:14 PM ETBy Paul Swydan | FanGraphs Recommend91Comments130EmailPrint

Kelley L Cox/US Presswire
Tim Lincecum’s struggles highlight the lack of reliability among Giants pitchers.

The San Francisco Giants will finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings for the eighth straight week, and in 16 of the final 17. The Giants finished with three straight fifth-place rankings, the highest they have been ranked this season. And still, the Giants have no chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants have played well this season, and they have been red hot in September, but they are a thin team that has feasted on inferior competition. Buster Posey is one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are top-30 pitchers. But outside of that, the quality dips quickly.
Pablo Sandoval is someone the team needs to be a star, but according to both wOBA and wRC+ he has not been a top-10 third baseman this season. Angel Pagan has been good but streaky — in two months, he has compiled an OPS of .884 or higher, but in the other four months he has compiled an OPS of .760 or lower. Hunter Pence has turned back into the average outfielder that he was prior to last year. In September, Marco Scutaro and Brandon Belt have been the team’s second- and third-best hitters, and both are rocking BABIP’s well above their previously established norms.

Despite this lack of depth, which has forced the team to play retreads Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady down the stretch, the team has chosen to sit atop Mount Pious and banish Melky Cabrera from even having a shot to contribute in the postseason. This shortsighted decision will leave them either playing the Blanco/Nady combo in left, or pushing Belt and Posey to suboptimal defensive positions — Belt in left and Posey at first — so that Hector Sanchez and his 2.3 walk rate (lowest in the NL among those with at least 200 plate appearances) can catch. Neither option is palatable, and even if Cabrera wasn’t 100 percent when he came back, he would have been a better contributor than Blanco, Nady or Sanchez. This lack of depth offensively would also be felt in a major way if San Francisco were to ultimately reach the World Series, as they do not have an obvious candidate for designated hitter.

Reaching the World Series seems a bit far-fetched at this point, however. Pitching becomes paramount in the postseason, and at this point the Giants rotation essentially amounts to “Bumgarner, Cain and pray for rain.” Both starters have pitched consistently well throughout the season, but after that, things get shaky. On Sunday, Tim Lincecum became just the 11th pitcher in Petco Park history to allow three or more home runs in a single outing, and after the game he had to confirm that he would actually be part of the postseason starting rotation. That this was even a question shows how far the two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen. His 4.19 FIP is more than a half-run worse than his rookie season and is by far the worst mark of his career. The picture isn’t much rosier for Ryan Vogelsong. While the right-hander has better numbers for the season, he has been cuffed around lately. After compiling a 2.36 first-half ERA, he has struggled to a 5.11 ERA since the All-Star break.

Relief efforts
A look at how each contender has fared in terms of shutdowns verus meltdowns.

Team SD/MD MLB Rank
Orioles 2.75 1
Braves 2.72 2
Athletics 2.57 3
Rangers 2.50 4
Rays 2.42 5
Dodgers 2.23 6
Nationals 2.15 7
Reds 2.08 8
Yankees 1.98 12
Tigers 1.81 15
White Sox 1.67 18
Giants 1.48 22
Angels 1.37 25
Cardinals 1.36 26

In most seasons, this might not be as big of an issue, as the Giants generally have a rock-solid bullpen. That has not been the case this season. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, which is a more evolved measuring stick than saves and blown saves, the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the game, a sharp contrast to the past two seasons. Their SD/MD ratio is 22nd overall and ranks 12th among the 14 teams who have either clinched postseason berths or are still in the running (see table). Looking at context neutral wins, or WPA/LI, which is also a great way to look at reliever performance, we can see the Giants have slid here as well. In 2010 and 2011, they produced top-10 units, but this season they have slipped all the way to 28th in baseball — only the Cubs and Astros have been worse.

It’s not hard to see why. The team’s best reliever, Sergio Romo, has to be treated with kid gloves. The fragile righty has averaged well under an inning per appearance in his career, and has never thrown more than 62 innings in the regular season. This season, he has logged appearances on three straight days only twice — once in mid-May, and then again right after the All-Star break, when he had a few extra days of rest. Romo is terrific when he pitches, but on days that he is unavailable, the Giants bullpen is woefully thin. Jeremy Affeldt has 16 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns this season, and he may be the next-best option. Rookie George Kontos is the only other pitcher in the zip code, and he has more meltdowns than shutdowns for the season himself.

Despite the lack of depth, the Giants have been at their best this month — their .704 September winning percentage (19-8) is their best of the season. But that is a bit misleading, as they have played cream puffs or familiar division rivals the entire month. The only time this month that their opponent was playing for something was during a three-game set with the Dodgers. Good teams have to throttle the bad competition, and the Giants have done that, going 43-40 (while being outscored) against teams that are .500 or better, and 50-26 against everyone else.

Technically, every team that reaches October has a chance to win the World Series, simply because they have a ticket to the dance. But while the Giants have punched their dance card, it may be quickly discarded. Posey, Matt and Bumgarner are three of baseball’s best players, but outside of them, the Giants have very few sure things. The Giants have scored plenty of runs in the second half, but many of their hitters are playing over their heads, and the overall depth is still thin. The same is true of the team’s pitching, and on nights when Lincecum and Vogelsong pitch, San Francisco will likely need to ladle on the runs in order to win. Every team has a shot to win, but even though they will avoid the play-in game, the Giants will face longer odds than their National League counterparts this October.

This fucking a-hole was pretty much dead on right about this fucking team.



That and the SSS luckfest literally was shoved up our ass.

 

[calsnowskier]

This fucking a-hole was pretty much dead on right about this fucking team.



That and the SSS luckfest literally was shoved up our ass.

 

[Stokes1931]

Nah. Probably just the alcohol talking. Not enough of that around to drown out the post game sorrows, or wash out the nasty taste in the mouth from getting killed twice at home against the Commies.