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[49ermann]

San Francisco's winning formula
These fundamentals have led to the 49ers' early success; are they sustainable?
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By Vince Verhei
Football Outsiders
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Kirby Lee/US PresswireAlex Smith has taken care of the football and is a reason why the 49ers are off to a quick start.

Congratulations to the San Francisco 49ers on being the first NFL team this season to clinch a playoff berth!

All right, that's a little premature. It's not a 100 percent certainty that the 49ers will make the playoffs. It's closer to 90 percent. Following their 24-23 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, they have a league-high 89.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds report. They're the only team in the NFL with a two-game lead in their division, and given the competition (the St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are a combined 2-10), it's hard to see how they don't win the NFC West.

Usually in this space, we focus on the flaws of the losing team. This week we're going to turn things around and concentrate on the victorious 49ers. They're far from an elite team, but they do three things very well. Ironically, one year after firing head coach Mike Singletary, the 49ers have mastered the three steps of winning with smashmouth football: turnovers, run defense and special teams. Let's look at how they handled those three steps against Philadelphia, how they've done over the course of the season and how they should perform going forward.
Step 1: Win the turnover battle

What happened in Philadelphia? San Francisco lost one fumble but recovered two Philadelphia fumbles and intercepted Michael Vick once.

What's happened this year? The 49ers are plus-8 in turnovers, tied with the Detroit Lions for best in the league.

Can they keep it up? When discussing turnovers, it's always important to consider fumble luck. Forcing fumbles is a skill and hanging on to the ball is a skill, but recovering fumbles is usually more about random chance and the funny bounces of an oddly shaped ball than anything else.

Most teams recover about half of all available fumbles. The 49ers have been a little lucky, recovering nine of 15 loose balls. That works out to just 1.5 extra possessions, which isn't much when stretched out over four games. (The Chicago Bears, for comparison, have picked up four extra possessions due to fumble luck.) San Francisco isn't due for a massive correction here.

San Francisco's defense has six interceptions, tied for fifth in the league, while quarterback Alex Smith has thrown just one pick. Starting in the second half of 2010, Smith seems to have learned the fine art of ball security. It's a polar swing from his early days in the league. In his rookie season of 2005, Smith played nine games, throwing one touchdown and 11 interceptions. In his last 10 games dating back to last season, Smith has thrown 12 touchdowns and only two picks. He'll never be a superstar, but Smith has finally developed into an acceptable game manager.

Step 2: Play dominant run defense

What happened in Philadelphia? Michael Vick made a few superhuman plays and ripped off 75 yards on the ground. Philadelphia's running backs, though, were completely shut down. LeSean McCoy, who averaged 6 yards a carry in his first three games, gained only 18 yards on nine carries against San Francisco. Ronnie Brown had 15 yards on one carry and zero net yards (and a fumble) on his other two runs.

What's happened this year? The 49ers may be the league's best defense against the run. They've given up 3.6 yards per carry, which is seventh in the league, but remember that most of that damage was done by Vick. If we remove quarterback runs from all teams, the 49ers have surrendered 2.9 yards per rush, best in the league.

The Niners also excel in Football Outsiders' advanced metrics in run defense. They're a few decimal points behind the Baltimore Ravens in success rate on run plays, they're second behind the Dallas Cowboys in second-level yards (yards gained 5 to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage), and first overall in open field yards (yards gained more than 10 yards downfield)
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Can they keep it up? The success across the board in various statistics suggests that the 49ers are getting great play from their linemen, linebackers and secondary. This is going to be key for San Francisco, because its offense isn't terribly explosive. The 49ers will face some second-half deficits, but their run defense will stop teams from killing clock late in games and also set up long distance on third downs. That's critical, because the 49ers' pass defense has been just mediocre this season and will need all the help it can get.

Step 3: Excel in the kicking game

What happened in Philadelphia? David Akers missed a pair of field goals, and Ted Ginn averaged negative yardage on his two punt returns. Still, Andy Lee had a net average of 45 yards per punt, and Akers kicked three touchbacks on kickoffs. All told, the 49ers' special teams cost them about 4.5 points on the day.

What's happened this year? Even after a bad day on Sunday, the 49ers rank second in our special teams ratings. They score highly in all phases of the game except kicking for points.

Can they keep it up? Um, yes. Lee and Akers are former All-Pros, and despite Akers' rough day in Philadelphia, they're one of the best kicking combos in the NFL. Ginn has already returned two kicks for touchdowns this year and could wind up an All-Pro himself this season.

The 49ers are about to enter the hardest part of their schedule with their next five opponents having a combined record of 15-5. Then things get easy -- five of San Francisco's last seven games come within its division, including two contests against the winless Rams. The 49ers will probably hang around .500 all year long. In the NFC West, that's a juggernaut.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Awesome info. Thanks man.

 

[bing_blunt]

Tampa and Detroit are solid teams, but its a joke, and a very good thing, that Cleveland, Washington, and NY are part of the team's 'hardest part of the schedule'.

For the record, I don't think Harbaugh is going to stick with conservative smashmouth football all year. Instead of assuming it'd work from the start, the passing game really has had to earn JH's trust, to prove to him that the team's better if they go down field more and trust Smith to throw 30+ times per game. As the WRs get healthier, as Hunter shows he can catch passes for big gains, and as Smith's performance improves, I don't see the niners relying on special teams and run defense to win. Having said that, its nice to know this team can compete in those areas.

 

[MW49ers5]

Great Read! Thanks for posting, Mann

 

[49ermann]

Great Read! Thanks for posting, Mann

Yeah Np.. I always get good info from this board.. just trying to give back.

I'm cautiously optimistic of this team. We have been 3-1 before I'm keeping my fingers crossed though.

 

[MW49ers5]

Yeah Np.. I always get good info from this board.. just trying to give back.

I'm cautiously optimistic of this team. We have been 3-1 before I'm keeping my fingers crossed though.

I believe 'cautious optimism' to be an intelligent approach, Mann. As well as things seem to be right now, we should all be aware that adversity is in the mail, and sooner or later it will arrive, how we handle that adversity will determine my confidence level in the team.

 

[49ermann]

The disasterous end to the first half would have been the nail in the coffin in the Singletary era.

But the team did a good job of staying focused and getting back into the game.

 

[deep9er]

if we can continue stopping the run, then Fangio should add more pressure. not asking for a lot more, but enough to take advantage of a one dimensional offense. maybe 3-4 more times in the 2nd half, depending on game conditions?

or is he already dialing up enough, but the stats (sacks) don't show it?

 

[FourBeeDen]

if we can continue stopping the run, then Fangio should add more pressure. not asking for a lot more, but enough to take advantage of a one dimensional offense. maybe 3-4 more times in the 2nd half, depending on game conditions?

or is he already dialing up enough, but the stats (sacks) don't show it?[/QUOTE]

So far the Niners have 9 sacks in 4 games. Don't know the stats on Hurries and QB pressures though

 

[49ermann]

if we can continue stopping the run, then Fangio should add more pressure. not asking for a lot more, but enough to take advantage of a one dimensional offense. maybe 3-4 more times in the 2nd half, depending on game conditions?

or is he already dialing up enough, but the stats (sacks) don't show it?

I can think of at least 3 plays in the Eagles game that would have resulted in a sack if anyone but Vick was the QB. One of which was the McDonald and Brooks whiff on the first TD pass.

I feel like the defense brought more pressure than is reflected in the box score.

The interception was partly caused by Justin Smith's pressure not allowing Vick to step into his throw.

In the first half the d was pressuring Vick out of the pocket and he was easily ripping off first down runs. In the second half the d did a better job of filling the gaps and spying on Vick. Navarro Bowman showed his speed by not letting Vick turn the corner on him on 3rd down. They also got more hits on Vick in the second half. It seems as if Vick is less inclined to run when he get knocked around.

 

[deep9er]

I can think of at least 3 plays in the Eagles game that would have resulted in a sack if anyone but Vick was the QB. One of which was the McDonald and Brooks whiff on the first TD pass.

I feel like the defense brought more pressure than is reflected in the box score.

The interception was partly caused by Justin Smith's pressure not allowing Vick to step into his throw.

In the first half the d was pressuring Vick out of the pocket and he was easily ripping off first down runs. In the second half the d did a better job of filling the gaps and spying on Vick. Navarro Bowman showed his speed by not letting Vick turn the corner on him on 3rd down. They also got more hits on Vick in the second half. It seems as if Vick is less inclined to run when he get knocked around.

oh ok, then it appears he is starting to dial up pressure. good!

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The Colts DEs absolutely tore up the TB line. We don't have guys with the pure speed of Freeney and Mathis, but hopefully our guys were taking notes. Playing Vick this past week is good practice for playing against a guy like Freeman. We've got a legit shot in this one, though I'm a bit worried about stopping the run if Sopoaga misses (as it sounds like he will).

 

[clyde_carbon]

The Colts DEs absolutely tore up the TB line. We don't have guys with the pure speed of Freeney and Mathis, but hopefully our guys were taking notes. Playing Vick this past week is good practice for playing against a guy like Freeman. We've got a legit shot in this one, though I'm a bit worried about stopping the run if Sopoaga misses (as it sounds like he will).

Aldon Smith? He might not be as quick, but he's definitely as fast, if not faster than both.

 

[Flyingiguana]

still no love for alex smith. the potential is still there to be more than just a game manager. anyone who actually watches the team and thinks objectively can see it. even clyde!

 

[tomikcon1971]

First team to 9 wins wraps up the West. No way St. Louis can get there from 0-4, especially with their injuries and upcoming schedule. So, it's basically down to three. It's crazy to say this early but we really control our own destiny with the remaining divisional play. We go 5-1 or 6-0, we're golden.

If we can beat the Bucs this week, we'll really have a stranglehold on the division. I don't see the chickens beating the Giants in NJ and the Vikes can beat ARI.

Can't wait 'til Sunday!

 

[Flyingiguana]

6 could lock up this division

 

[tomikcon1971]

6 could lock up this division

I agree less than 9 could win....my point is if someone gets to 9, it's a lock.

 

[deep9er]

First team to 9 wins wraps up the West. No way St. Louis can get there from 0-4, especially with their injuries and upcoming schedule. So, it's basically down to three. It's crazy to say this early but we really control our own destiny with the remaining divisional play. We go 5-1 or 6-0, we're golden.

If we can beat the Bucs this week, we'll really have a stranglehold on the division. I don't see the chickens beating the Giants in NJ and the Vikes can beat ARI.

Can't wait 'til Sunday!

yes, technically we control our own destiny, but also yes, it IS too early. it can turn on us quickly coupled with someone getting "hot". granted 'hot' for West teams is something like winning 3 of 4, or 4 of 6? but if we on a losing streak.............

agree, the key is always winning West games, cause good chance it comes down to tie-breakers.

 

[Flyingiguana]

3 of the top 5 picks in the draft might come from the nfc west!

 

[deep9er]

3 of the top 5 picks in the draft might come from the nfc west!

we're feeling REAL good about our team now, but chit happens? Alex Smith might just go back to his 'normal' and it all falls apart?

so while i don't think we'll draft top 5, it MIGHT be close?