Ervin Santana Vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

[Johnnydollaz89]

Now that both Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza are off the market, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are widely considered the top two starters in free agency. Some may argue in favor of Bronson Arroyo as well, but given the lack of draft pick compensation and his age relative to Santana and Jimenez, Arroyo figures to have a different market than the pair of early-30s Dominican right-handers.
Santana turned 31 in December and enjoyed an excellent rebound campaign with Royals in 2013 after he was acquired in a salary dump trade with the Angels. Similarly, Jimenez, who turned 30 last week, rebounded from a disastrous 18-month stretch that saw him post an ERA north of 5.00 and caused many fans around the game label him a lost cause.
Jimenez is more of a strikeout pitcher than Santana but also comes with worse control, as reflected in his 9.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 rates in 2013. While he was once an extreme ground-ball pitcher, Jimenez turned in a slightly below-league-average mark of 43.9 percent in 2013 (44.5 percent was average). Santana, meanwhile, relied on pristine command but picked up strike three far less often than Jimenez. He averaged nearly three full strikeouts fewer than Jimenez on a per-nine-inning basis (6.9) but walked just 2.2 hitters per nine. His ground-ball rate has trended upward over the past three seasons, culminating in a career-best 46.2 percent in 2013.

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Two best on the market. Which would you prefer and why?

 

[StanMarsh51]

Santana...Ubaldo's walk rates are way too much of a concern for me.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Gonna go with Santana as well. As far as consistency goes, though not by much, Santana has been more.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It is easily Ubaldo in my opinion, he has had only one legitimately bad season (Peripherals didn't match the ERA in 2012) and has been solid every other year. While all the talk of FB%'s and mechanics are an interesting discussion for Santana going forward, there is no way in hell I would take Santana over Ubaldo.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Santana is safer... But i can see Ubaldo being a star once again if on the right team...

 

[BigDDude]

MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Two best on the market. Which would you prefer and why?

Bronson Arroyo.

He would probably be # 3 on a lot of peoples list. That said, he is one of the most steady and durable SP's out there, so I would take him over the other 2.

 

[broncosmitty]

If somehow Santana could manage to not give up 25+ homers he could be a nice addition for a lot of teams. In reality he'll be a decent add despite his issues. Cant expect a repeat of last year though. No idea what the alltime record is for HRs given up, but he's got to have a chance to challenge. Ublados inability to throw strikes would bother me more than ES' long ball woes. And he doesn't provide innings with the same consistency. Id have Ervin well ahead of Ubaldo right now.

 

[broncosmitty]

Bronson Arroyo.

He would probably be # 3 on a lot of peoples list. That said, he is one of the most steady and durable SP's out there, so I would take him over the other 2.

Absolutely!

 

[anotheridiot]

I would go Ubaldo. He had his issues and made huge strides with adjustments. Santana has been about the same.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Bronson Arroyo.

He would probably be # 3 on a lot of peoples list. That said, he is one of the most steady and durable SP's out there, so I would take him over the other 2.

That's true, but he wont fetch the contract these guys will. Though, for most teams, they probably prefer that.

Agree with Arroyo as a beter and more reliable option on a 3-year deal. Was pushing for the Mets to sign him, instead we went with Colon, then re-signed Dice-K and brought in Lannan to compete with Mejia for the 5th spot.

 

[obxyankeefan]

I voted for Jimenez. Of the two he tends to have the most upside left IMO, while Santana would be the most consisant of the two.

 

[The Derski]

Ubaldo has really fallen from grace since being traded from the Rockies.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

You forgot to put neither in the poll. I wouldn't give either one of these guys a big contract. 1 year max. Both have been far to inconsistant.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

I would take the potential upside and go with Jimenez.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Santana gaining interest from teams

At least three teams -- the Orioles, Rangers and an NL West club -- have strong interest in Ervin Santana, ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas tweets. Rojas also notes that the Blue Jays could still be a possibility (although a recent report indicated the Blue Jays would not sign a free-agent starting pitcher). The identity of the NL West team is unclear, although the Rockies have been connected to Santana.

The Orioles have interest despite their recent signing of Ubaldo Jimenez. Santana would still upgrade their rotation, and with their first-round draft pick no longer a factor, there is less disincentive for them to sign a free agent like Santana who has a qualifying offer attached. The Orioles would only have to give up the No. 90 overall pick -- their third-rounder -- to sign Santana. The Rangers would have to sacrifice the No. 30 overall pick they are about to receive as compensation for Nelson Cruz signing with Baltimore.

 

[Nyfan1980]

Santana is a safer bet IMO.

From 2010-2013

Santana-
2010-102 ERA+
2011-111 ERA+
2012-74 ERA+
2013-127 ERA+

Jimenez-
2010-161 ERA+
2011-93 ERA+
2012-72 ERA+
2013-114 ERA+


Santana seems to stick around the low 100, while Jimenez had that great 2010 season, hes been more low.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Santana is a safer bet IMO.

From 2010-2013

Santana-
2010-102 ERA+
2011-111 ERA+
2012-74 ERA+
2013-127 ERA+

Jimenez-
2010-161 ERA+
2011-93 ERA+
2012-72 ERA+
2013-114 ERA+


Santana seems to stick around the low 100, while Jimenez had that great 2010 season, hes been more low.

ERA+ is subject to almost the exact same flaws as ERA. Ubaldo is no longer an elite pitcher, but he is a really solid guy to have. Just won't see the IP's he used to eat.

Ubaldo Jimenez » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball Ubaldo

Ervin Santana » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball Santana

Not sure why anyone could say Santana is more consistent. He is the definition of inconsistent.

Ubaldo had a season this year right on par with 2011. Meanwhile, Santana had his best season since '08. No way is Santana a better bet than Ubaldo; mechanics or not.