ericd7633's Updated Bracketology - 1.14.18

[ericd7633]

I figured now would be a pretty good time to do an updated bracketology. A lot has certainly changed since my last one about 4 weeks ago. As a reminder the committee has adjusted their team sheets this year into 4 quadrants, which are as follows:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-100; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

I went ahead and calculated everybody's quadrant one record that has a realistic shot at being in the at-large pool(I did the top 75 at this point). Any team that cracks the top 75 RPI at some point, will be included, but I just used the top 75 of the RPI at this point.

Per usual, the current conference standing leader is considered the "auto" bid, if a tie, highest RPI was used as a tie-breaker.

East Regional(Boston, MA)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. BETHUNE-COOKMAN(MEAC)/FGCU(A-SUN)
- PPG Paints Arena
8. Miami
9. Texas

5. WICHITA STATE(AAC)
12. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)
- Taco Bell Arena
4. Kentucky
13. WILLIAM & MARY(CAA)

6. Michigan State
11. Boise State/NC State
- Intrust Bank Arena
3. Kansas
14. LOUISIANA(SUN BELT)

7. Creighton
10. St. Bonaventure
- Spectrum Center
2. Clemson
15. RADFORD(BIG SOUTH)

South Regional(Atlanta, GA)

1. AUBURN(SEC)
16. JACKSON STATE(SWAC)/NEW ORLEANS(SOUTHLAND)
- Bridgestone Arena
8. RHODE ISLAND(A-10)
9. Florida State

5. Cincinnati
12. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)
- Viejas Arena
4. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
13. WRIGHT STATE(HORIZON)

6. Michigan
11. LSU/Western Kentucky
- Bridgestone Arena
3. Duke
14. CS FULLERTON(BIG WEST)

7. Butler
10. Notre Dame
- American Airlines Center
2. Texas Tech
15. MONTANA(BIG SKY)

Midwest Regional(Omaha, NE)

1. PURDUE(B1G)
16. PENNSYLVANIA(IVY)
- Little Caesars Arena
8. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
9. Missouri

5. Arizona State
12. ST. MARY'S(WCC)
- Viejas Arena
4. North Carolina
13. ETSU(SOUTHERN)

6. Arkansas
11. MTSU(C-USA)
- Little Caesars Arena
3. Seton Hall
14. RIDER(MAAC)

7. Louisville
10. Providence
- PPG Paints Arena
2. West Virginia
15. DRAKE(MVC)

West Regional(Los Angeles, CA)

1. OKLAHOMA(BIG 12)
16. ROBERT MORRIS(NEC)
- Intrust Bank Arena
8. Florida
9. Marquette

5. Tennessee
12. BUFFALO(MAC)
- Taco Bell Arena
4. Gonzaga
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. Ohio State
11. Alabama
- American Airlines Center
3. Xavier
14. BELMONT(OVC)

7. TCU
10. Texas A&M
- Spectrum Center
2. VIRGINIA(ACC)
15. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)

Top 16 "Seed" Curve: Villanova, Auburn, Purdue, Oklahoma, Virginia, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Kansas, Duke, Seton Hall, Xavier, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona.
Last 4 BYES: Texas A&M, Notre Dame, St. Bonaventure, Alabama
Last 4 IN: Boise State, LSU, Western Kentucky, NC State
First 4 OUT: UCLA, USC, Washington, Maryland,
Next 4 OUT: Syracuse, Houston, Boston College, Colorado

 

[fishinabarrel]

I know they've dropped two in a row now but Michigan State only getting a 6 seed?

 

[ericd7633]

I know they've dropped two in a row now but Michigan State only getting a 6 seed?

This is some of my reasoning for them being a 6 seed:

RPI: 30
Non Conf. SOS: 234
Q1 Record: 1-2
Q4 Record: 9-0(not a good thing)
2-3 against projected field

 

[jontaejones]

That's a ballzy bracket.

I think RPI is a little wacky right now because of all of the bad losses.

Committee will probably use eye test more than usual this year. However, there should be some major corrections by mid-February.

If Auburn and Clemson actually do end up winning their leagues, it's going to throw everything into a tizzy.

 

[ericd7633]

That's a ballzy bracket.

I think RPI is a little wacky right now because of all of the bad losses.

Committee will probably use eye test more than usual this year. However, there should be some major corrections by mid-February.

If Auburn and Clemson actually do end up winning their leagues, it's going to throw everything into a tizzy.

Auburn and Clemson are tied for 2nd in the country with the most quadrant 1 wins. Only behind Purdue with 6. I didn't really look at RPI standing, rather what that record was using the RPI as a reference. At this point you can also start to notice trends, and that is that the ACC and SEC, separately, have a chance to have more bids than the B1G and Pac 12 combined. And the Big East and Big 12 could possibly send 60% of their teams. Those 4 leagues are going to eat up the selections, so because of that teams like Auburn and Clemson, IMO already have a leg up because of their great records so far.

I just hate the "eye test" theory, when there's over 30 games worth of data.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Auburn and Clemson are tied for 2nd in the country with the most quadrant 1 wins. Only behind Purdue with 6. I didn't really look at RPI standing, rather what that record was using the RPI as a reference. At this point you can also start to notice trends, and that is that the ACC and SEC, separately, have a chance to have more bids than the B1G and Pac 12 combined. And the Big East and Big 12 could possibly send 60% of their teams. Those 4 leagues are going to eat up the selections, so because of that teams like Auburn and Clemson, IMO already have a leg up because of their great records so far.

I just hate the "eye test" theory, when there's over 30 games worth of data.

You know what's most funny about Auburn and Clemson??

Until this week they both only had one loss...and that loss was to Temple a team that's 8-9 right now

 

[ericd7633]

You know what's most funny about Auburn and Clemson??

Until this week they both only had one loss...and that loss was to Temple a team that's 8-9 right now

Yeah, I did know that. Just a really weird couple of results. Temple has struggled mightily in AAC play. T hey set themselves up for an at-large with their play in the non. conf, but now they can only afford another loss or 2 if they want an at-large.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Yeah, I did know that. Just a really weird couple of results. Temple has struggled mightily in AAC play. T hey set themselves up for an at-large with their play in the non. conf, but now they can only afford another loss or 2 if they want an at-large.

Same with Northern Iowa, just tanked in conference play for whatever reason

 

[ericd7633]

Same with Northern Iowa, just tanked in conference play for whatever reason

Yeah, and that's an even more extreme case, because the MVC obviously isn't what it used to be without Creighton and Wichita State. I thought they'd run away with the league.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Yeah, and that's an even more extreme case, because the MVC obviously isn't what it used to be without Creighton and Wichita State. I thought they'd run away with the league.

Loyola-Chicago had a good start to the season for that league too, there was some multi-bid potential and it took what? 3 conference games for that league to destroy itself from within and take away any at-large hopes?

 

[ericd7633]

Loyola-Chicago had a good start to the season for that league too, there was some multi-bid potential and it took what? 3 conference games for that league to destroy itself from within and take away any at-large hopes?

Yeah, the league had an interesting non conf. Even Illinois State showed some potential, but also took on some bad losses. Looks like it's going to play out how we probably thought going in, with a lot of parity. I predicted Bradley to win the league in my preseason bracket, and they have about as good of a chance as anybody. Even with the watered down league, I always look forward to Arch Madness, one of my favorite conference tournaments.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Yeah, the league had an interesting non conf. Even Illinois State showed some potential, but also took on some bad losses. Looks like it's going to play out how we probably thought going in, with a lot of parity. I predicted Bradley to win the league in my preseason bracket, and they have about as good of a chance as anybody. Even with the watered down league, I always look forward to Arch Madness, one of my favorite conference tournaments.

Hopefully whoever wins at least can make some noise in the tournament

 

[ericd7633]

Some important bracket games this week:

Monday, January 15:

Butler(13-6, 3-3) at Providence(12-6, 3-2) - 4:30 | FS1
Maryland(14-5, 3-3) at Michigan(15-4, 2-2) - 6:30 | FS1
#7 Duke(15-2, 3-2) at #18 Miami(13-3, 2-2) - 7:00 | ESPN
#23 Florida State(13-4, 2-3) at Boston College(12-6, 2-3) - 7:00 | ESPNU
#12 Kansas(14-3, 4-1) at #2 West Virginia(15-2, 4-1) - 9:00 | ESPN

Tuesday, January 16:

#19 Clemson(15-2, 4-1) at #20 North Carolina(14-4, 3-2) - 7:00 | ACCNE
Louisville(13-4, 3-1) at Notre Dame(13-5, 3-2) - 7:00 | ESPN2
Georgia(11-5, 2-3) at LSU(11-5, 2-2) - 7:00 | ESPNU

Wednesday, January 17:

#22 Auburn(16-1, 4-0) at Alabama(11-6, 3-2) - 7:00 | SECN
#8 Texas Tech(15-2, 4-1) at Texas(11-6, 2-3) - 8:00 | LHN
Houston(14-3, 4-1) at Tulane(11-6, 2-3) - 8:00 | ESPNN
#13 Seton Hall(15-3, 4-1) at #25 Creighton(14-4, 4-2) - 8:30 | FS1
#24 Tennessee(12-4, 3-2) at Missouri(12-5, 2-2) - 9:00 | SECN
#11 Arizona State(14-3, 2-3) at Stanford(10-8, 4-1) - 11:00 | PAC12N

Thursday, January 18:

Murray State(13-4, 5-1) at Belmont(13-6, 5-1) - 7:00 | ESPNU
Wake Forest(8-9, 1-4) at NC State(12-6, 2-3) - 8:00 | ACCNE
Washington State(9-8, 1-4) at Colorado(11-7, 3-3) - 8:00 | PAC12N
Saint Mary's(17-2, 6-0) at #15 Gonzaga(16-3, 6-0) - 9:00 | ESPN
USC(13-6, 4-2) at Oregon(12-6, 2-3) - 9:00 | ESPN2
UAB(13-5, 4-1) at Western Kentucky(13-5, 5-0) - 9:00 | CBSSN
Washington(13-5, 3-2) at Utah(10-7, 2-4) - 10:00 | PAC12N
UCLA(13-5, 4-2) at Oregon State(10-7, 2-3) - 11:00 | FS1

Friday, January 19:

Saint Bonaventure(12-5, 2-3) at Davidson(9-7, 4-1) - 7:00 | ESPN2
Buffalo(12-5, 4-0) at Western Michigan(11-6, 3-1) - 7:00 | ESPNU

 

[ericd7633]

Hopefully whoever wins at least can make some noise in the tournament

I think Missouri State or Bradley, should they win Arch Madness, would have a chance to be on the 12 or 13 line, and would be capable of putting a scare into a 4 or 5 seed.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Marquette vs Florida

Get rid of the game clock and play first team to 20 3s wins?

 

[jontaejones]

It's actually a well balanced bracket even considering that Auburn and Clemson probably won't be near #1 and #2 seeds when all is said and done.

 

[ericd7633]

Marquette vs Florida

Get rid of the game clock and play first team to 20 3s wins?

Wouldn't that be an awesome game to watch? Game like that has the potential to get into the 100's.

 

[ericd7633]

It's actually a well balanced bracket even considering that Auburn and Clemson probably won't be near #1 and #2 seeds when all is said and done.

Yeah, I would probably agree they won't finish on those lines, but I do think Auburn could be a top 10 team on the "S" curve come selection Sunday, which would put them on the 2/3 line.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Wouldn't that be an awesome game to watch? Game like that has the potential to get into the 100's.

Would be a blast.

I think Florida is the better overall team but I think we would be a tough match up for them.

Would be a exciting one

 

[ericd7633]

Providence adds a Q1 victory to the resume(as of now). We'll see where this win lands at the end of the season. Butler falls to the 8/9 line now.