ericd7633's preseason bracketology

[ericd7633]

Midwest Regional(Omaha, NE)

1. MICHIGAN STATE(BIG)
16. IDAHO(BIG SKY)/HAWAII(BIG WEST)
Little Caesars Arena(Detroit, MI)
8. Providence
9. Virginia

5. St. Mary's
12. CHARLESTON(CAA)
PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburgh, PA)
4. West Virginia
13. BELMONT(OVC)

6. Alabama
11. VCU/SMU
Little Caesars Arena(Detroit, MI)
3. CINCINNATI(AAC)
14. BRADLEY(MVC)

7. Baylor
10. Missouri
Viejas Center(San Diego, CA)
2. USC
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN(SOUTHLAND)

East Regional(Boston, MA)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. NIAGARA(MAAC)
PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburgh, PA)
8. Virginia Tech
9. Michigan

5. Minnesota
12. VERMONT(AM. EAST)
Intrust Bank Arena(Wichita, KS)
4. Louisville
13. HARVARD(IVY)

6. Xavier
11. Arkansas
Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
3. North Carolina
14. FURMAN(SO.CON)

7. TCU
10. Central Florida
Bridgestone Arena(Nashville, TN)
2. Florida
15. FLORIDA GULF COAST(A-SUN)

South Regional(Atlanta, GA)

1. DUKE(ACC)
16. MORGAN ST(MEAC)/MT. SAINT MARY'S(NEC)
Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
8. Seton Hall
9. Oregon

5. Northwestern
12. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
American Air Lines Center(Dallas, TX)
4. Wichita State
13. GEORGIA STATE(SUN BELT)

6. Notre Dame
11. Butler/Iowa
Taco Bell Arena(Boise, ID)
3. UCLA
14. WESTERN MICHIGAN(MAC)

7. Texas
10. Stanford
Bridgestone Arena(Nashville, TN)
2. KENTUCKY(SEC)
15. OAKLAND(HORIZON)

West Regional(Los Angeles, CA)

1. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)
Viejas Center(San Diego, CA)
8. Maryland
9. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)

5. Purdue
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(CUSA)
American Air Lines Center(Dallas, TX)
4. Miami
13. UNC-ASHEVILLE(BIG SOUTH)

6. RHODE ISLAND(A-10)
11. Oklahoma
Taco Bell Arena(Boise, ID)
3. GONZAGA(WCC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

7. Texas A&M
10. Wisconsin
Intrust Bank Arena(Wichita, KS)
2. KANSAS(BIG 12)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

Top 10 "S" Curve: Michigan State, Villanova, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, USC, Kentucky, Florida, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
Last 4 "BYES": Central Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Last 4 IN: Butler, VCU, SMU, Iowa
First 4 OUT: Marquette, Uconn, Creighton, Georgia
Next 4 OUT: Wake Forest, Houston, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Notable Games the first weekend:

Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
Memphis vs. Alabama
Northern Iowa @ North Carolina
UNC-Greensboro @ Virginia
Iowa State @ Missouri
Georgia Tech vs. UCLA
Vermont @ Kentucky
Bucknell @ Arkansas
Princeton @ Butler

 

[Hitman Hart]

This is pretty fair, imo. I think if Doral Moore lives up to the hype that his teammates (and Manning, to an extent) are giving him right now, then Wake will probably be a single digit seed. If he doesn't, and there are no other improvement among Wake's big men, then they'll be in the NIT.

 

[ericd7633]

This is pretty fair, imo. I think if Doral Moore lives up to the hype that his teammates (and Manning, to an extent) are giving him right now, then Wake will probably be a single digit seed. If he doesn't, and there are no other improvement among Wake's big men, then they'll be in the NIT.

I would agree with this assessment. He needs to have improved so Wake has some reliable front court presence. You guys will have a hell of a back court though, which might carry Wake to the tournament even if Moore doesn't improve as much as what is being said.

 

[Hitman Hart]

I would agree with this assessment. He needs to have improved so Wake has some reliable front court presence. You guys will have a hell of a back court though, which might carry Wake to the tournament even if Moore doesn't improve as much as what is being said.

Crawford is a great college PG and Woods is a very efficient SG. If Childress can become more consistent this year, then I'll be very happy with Wake's back court. A group of analysts for Scout.com think Chaundee Brown will be the #2 impact freshmen in the ACC, behind Duke's Marvin Bagley.

Top Five ACC Basketball Impact Freshmen Predictions by Scout Recruiting Team

I think Wake's front court has potential, but they're unproven, which is why I don't have an issue with putting Wake on the wrong side of the bubble right now. I think Moore, Sarr and Japhet-Mathias all have great potential, with Moore being more ready than the other two right now. FWIW, Sarr is listed as a 1st rounder in a 2019 mock draft from ESPN.

 

[rmilia1]

Good work as usual. I'm not as high on some teams as you ( Purdue , Wisconsin , uVA, Mizzou ) and am higher on some ( Iowa, Wake , Seton Hall, TCU ) but overall pretty reasonable

 

[Gohogs14]

Man am I tired of being matched up with UNC lol. Couldn't complain too much about getting in though.

 

[Great Dayne]

I'm just not seeing what the MSU hype train is all about. They went 20-15 last season and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Now all of a suddent they're a #2 ranked team and 1 seed based of what? They're returning guys from a mediocre team, I just don't see them going from average #50 team in the country to a NC contender after a 4 month off season. They have bad guards, and their best player is a great athlete but just ok basketball skills in Bridges. They do have a 5 star recruit but again they're still fairly young and were average last year with the same core team. I just don't see where this magical hype train is coming from.

 

[ericd7633]

I'm just not seeing what the MSU hype train is all about. They went 20-15 last season and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Now all of a suddent they're a #2 ranked team and 1 seed based of what? They're returning guys from a mediocre team, I just don't see them going from average #50 team in the country to a NC contender after a 4 month off season. They have bad guards, and their best player is a great athlete but just ok basketball skills in Bridges. They do have a 5 star recruit but again they're still fairly young and were average last year with the same core team. I just don't see where this magical hype train is coming from.

They were a 9 seed last year that was wrecked with injuries. They were missing half their front court(Gavin Schilling, Ben Carter) and Bridges and Harris each missed more than 5 games last year. They return 4 of their 5 top scorers, along with Carter and Schilling. And add a lottery type talent in Jackson. I guess you're under the assumption players can't improve from the Freshman to Sophomore seasons? They add 4 potential impact guys through Freshman eligibility and injury. If you think Van Vilet is old wait til you see how old Ben Carter is. Just a little hint he's older than Giannis.

 

[Great Dayne]

They were a 9 seed last year that was wrecked with injuries. They were missing half their front court(Gavin Schilling, Ben Carter) and Bridges and Harris each missed more than 5 games last year. They return 4 of their 5 top scorers, along with Carter and Schilling. And add a lottery type talent in Jackson. I guess you're under the assumption players can't improve from the Freshman to Sophomore seasons? They add 4 potential impact guys through Freshman eligibility and injury. If you think Van Vilet is old wait til you see how old Ben Carter is. Just a little hint he's older than Giannis.

So Ben Carter could never get off the bench with Oregon, became a role player at UNLV and averaged 8 a game and Schilling is a super senior who had his best year at 5 ppg with MSU and both are super seniors coming off injuries. They've shown no real improvement and we don't know how good they will be after those injuries at best they will be the same as their peak seasons which is 10 minutes off the bench at best. They're depending on many freshmen and sophomore players like the Badgers to be their starters.



Harris is gone this year anyways. Bridges was lost during their weakest part of the schedule vs a bunch of scrubs and they won 6 games and lost one game to Northeastern.

So they added a Jackson this 5 star recruit at the PF position which they're already stacked at. His stats were 16 pts 7 boards and 4 blocks a game at 6'10" 225 lbs at the 3A division. That's awful stats for the 3 A level at that size. He should at least average 20 and 10 to even be considered at the division I level. I've seen guards with more points and rebounds at that level not even get recruited. His athleticism isn't even that great and his skills are limited to dunking around the basket. He did show great defense but against midgets and unskilled players. I've wathced all his highllights and not one thing of them said 5 star recruit or lottery pick. Maybe a 3 star at the very best. Dude was ranked high because of his size and he's black. Other than that his productions vs 3A talent and skills on film don't display anything close to a 5 star player. Very raw and extremely overrated IMO.

So in the end MSU lost a 11 ppg player, added a 5 star PF who looks the part but is really a 2-3 star caliber player at best right now, they're returning a team that was a 9 seed and lost to almost all the ranked teams they faced and some terrible teams as well, they have no good guards at all and are now magically supposed to be a top 4 team and some has them as the best team coming into the season. I mean unless all these impact freshmen are as good as the Fab five then maybe they'll have a shot to be a 1 seed but from what I see this is an above average BIG team right now that has the potential to be a 3 seed at best.

 

[ericd7633]

So Ben Carter could never get off the bench with Oregon, became a role player at UNLV and averaged 8 a game and Schilling is a super senior who had his best year at 5 ppg with MSU and both are super seniors coming off injuries. They've shown no real improvement and we don't know how good they will be after those injuries at best they will be the same as their peak seasons which is 10 minutes off the bench at best. They're depending on many freshmen and sophomore players like the Badgers to be their starters.



Harris is gone this year anyways. Bridges was lost during their weakest part of the schedule vs a bunch of scrubs and they won 6 games and lost one game to Northeastern.

So they added a Jackson this 5 star recruit at the PF position which they're already stacked at. His stats were 16 pts 7 boards and 4 blocks a game at 6'10" 225 lbs at the 3A division. That's awful stats for the 3 A level at that size. He should at least average 20 and 10 to even be considered at the division I level. I've seen guards with more points and rebounds at that level not even get recruited. His athleticism isn't even that great and his skills are limited to dunking around the basket. He did show great defense but against midgets and unskilled players. I've wathced all his highllights and not one thing of them said 5 star recruit or lottery pick. Maybe a 3 star at the very best. Dude was ranked high because of his size and he's black. Other than that his productions vs 3A talent and skills on film don't display anything close to a 5 star player. Very raw and extremely overrated IMO.

So in the end MSU lost a 11 ppg player, added a 5 star PF who looks the part but is really a 2-3 star caliber player at best right now, they're returning a team that was a 9 seed and lost to almost all the ranked teams they faced and some terrible teams as well, they have no good guards at all and are now magically supposed to be a top 4 team and some has them as the best team coming into the season. I mean unless all these impact freshmen are as good as the Fab five then maybe they'll have a shot to be a 1 seed but from what I see this is an above average BIG team right now that has the potential to be a 3 seed at best.

Even if those guys give them 10 minutes a game it still provides depth, plus they have a ton of playing experience. It's better than playing a walk on which they had to do last season.

I just looked at 3 2018 mock drafts, all have Jackson going in the top 15. I'll trust their evaluations over yours. And yes, this projection is based on their Freshman playing better as Sophomores, which happens all the time. If you don't think these Freshman are going to improve than yes, this projection is probably slightly high.

 

[Great Dayne]

Dunks and blocks against 3 A undersized 6 ft kids. Not impressed at all. The people that rank this kid a five star or call him a future NBA draft pick must be high as a kite.

 

[Great Dayne]

Even if those guys give them 10 minutes a game it still provides depth, plus they have a ton of playing experience. It's better than playing a walk on which they had to do last season.

I just looked at 3 2018 mock drafts, all have Jackson going in the top 15. I'll trust their evaluations over yours. And yes, this projection is based on their Freshman playing better as Sophomores, which happens all the time. If you don't think these Freshman are going to improve than yes, this projection is probably slightly high.

These mock draft boards aren't always right you know. They've made terrible mistakes before when projecting talent. After watching all his clips and checking his stats the kid isn't anything close to what it takes to be NBA level player or even a great college player. All he has is size coupled with average athleticism. Can he improve? Sure but saying the guy is a lottery pick is beyond laughable without Frank Kaminsky type improvements. I've honestly never seen a more overrated player at the 3A level in my life. I am very suspicious why his rankings are so high despite having bad stats, playing poor competition, having average athleticism and very raw. You can trust these mock draft boards all you want but they're just going off the fact that he was a 5 star recruit going to MSU. Go watch his highlights and check the analytics to make a more educated opinion on him and you will see what I mean. I always pretend I am looking for players I would want on my team for an objective view. Not impressed at all.

Can their freshemen improve?? Yes, but to go from a 9 seed to the best in the country is a major jump. They were overrated drastically last year as well. They're MSU so will continue to be overrated again this season.
Again, I think it's a respectable prediction to have them as a 5 or 6 seed with 3 seed potential but a 1 seed right now is asinine.

 

[ericd7633]

These mock draft boards aren't always right you know. They've made terrible mistakes before when projecting talent. After watching all his clips and checking his stats the kid isn't anything close to what it takes to be NBA level player or even a great college player. All he has is size coupled with average athleticism. Can he improve? Sure but saying the guy is a lottery pick is beyond laughable without Frank Kaminsky type improvements. I've honestly never seen a more overrated player at the 3A level in my life. I am very suspicious why his rankings are so high despite having bad stats, playing poor competition, having average athleticism and very raw.

Can their freshemen improve?? Yes, but to go from a 9 seed to the best in the country is a major jump. They were overrated drastically last year as well. They're MSU so will continue to be overrated again this season.
Again, I think it's a respectable prediction to have them as a 5 or 6 seed with 3 seed potential but a 1 seed right now is asinine.

Well, I guess we'll find out how good he is. Kids that are rated in the top 10 coming out of high school typically have good production at the college level in their first season.

They also weren't healthy last year, they have significantly more depth than they did a year ago, especially in the front court. Also, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan lost significant production, because of that, I project Michigan State to win the B1G and rather comfortably.

 

[Great Dayne]

Even if those guys give them 10 minutes a game it still provides depth, plus they have a ton of playing experience. It's better than playing a walk on which they had to do last season.

I just looked at 3 2018 mock drafts, all have Jackson going in the top 15. I'll trust their evaluations over yours. And yes, this projection is based on their Freshman playing better as Sophomores, which happens all the time. If you don't think these Freshman are going to improve than yes, this projection is probably slightly high.

Also, bench players depth isn't going to be a major difference making from winning 20 games to winning 30 games. If they had an elite transfer student that was a senior waiting to start this season at the G position then that would provide a significant bump sure. But the improvements of their players from freshmen to sophomore an overrated five star and a couple other freshmen who will ride the bench isn't going to be the bump they need to go from average to the best in the country.

 

[Great Dayne]

Well, I guess we'll find out how good he is. Kids that are rated in the top 10 coming out of high school typically have good production at the college level in their first season.

They also weren't healthy last year, they have significantly more depth than they did a year ago, especially in the front court. Also, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan lost significant production, because of that, I project Michigan State to win the B1G and rather comfortably.

Maten from UGA just dropped 33 on the Spartans so apparently Jackson can't handle college level offensive talent just yet. IDK maybe Jackson isn't even the starter so I can't blame him for all the points.

Well those teams did lose a ton of talent that's true. Northwestern is being back a veteran squad and was ranked 20th. Not sure why you wouldn't have them winning the BIG easily. I mean they performed much better than MSU last season and are basically bringing everyone back.

Badgers have the POY in Happ so they'll compete no matter what plus as I mentioned before there best draft class ever #22. Their classes that went to the NCAA championship averages about #100 ranking. That's game over for the rest of the league if the Badgers continue to draft high and develop them like they've been developing non elite talent.

 

[ericd7633]

Also, bench players depth isn't going to be a major difference making from winning 20 games to winning 30 games. If they had an elite transfer student that was a senior waiting to start this season at the G position then that would provide a significant bump sure. But the improvements of their players from freshmen to sophomore an overrated five star and a couple other freshmen who will ride the bench isn't going to be the bump they need to go from average to the best in the country.

They weren't an average team, they were a top 40 team basically all season. An average team in CBB is a team ranked like 160. And yes, depth is significant. Especially considering you have to play walk-ons in their place.

 

[Great Dayne]

They weren't an average team, they were a top 40 team basically all season. An average team in CBB is a team ranked like 160. And yes, depth is significant. Especially considering you have to play walk-ons in their place.

5 games over .500 and over 5 of those games were vs terrible teams. They were ranked #12 in the country so they were drastically overrated last year and now history is repeating itself. Now they will be either ranked 1-2 and will be fortunate to end the season in the top 25. Everyone believes in the hype and jumps on the bandwagon. Having below average players fill in for walk ons isn't going to give them 10 more wins this season. No matter what for me they will have to prove they can be an elite team first. I just don't see them being any higher than a #4 seed.

Don't fall for the hype ericd.

I'm going with the safe bet in Northwestern to win the BIG.

 

[ericd7633]

Maten from UGA just dropped 33 on the Spartans so apparently Jackson can't handle college level offensive talent just yet. IDK maybe Jackson isn't even the starter so I can't blame him for all the points.

Well those teams did lose a ton of talent that's true. Northwestern is being back a veteran squad and was ranked 20th. Not sure why you wouldn't have them winning the BIG easily. I mean they performed much better than MSU last season and are basically bringing everyone back.

Badgers have the POY in Happ so they'll compete no matter what plus as I mentioned before there best draft class ever #22. Their classes that went to the NCAA championship averages about #100 ranking. That's game over for the rest of the league if the Badgers continue to draft high and develop them like they've been developing non elite talent.

NW was just about the same team last season in terms of where they were seeded for the tournament. They certainly didn't perform much better than them if at all last season. And Michigan State simply has a more talented roster. NW will also be better than last year, simply because of league attrition IMO. But Michigan State has a much higher ceiling based on the talent they return. And Michigan State also has a POY candidate in Bridges.

 

[ericd7633]

5 games over .500 and over 5 of those games were vs terrible teams. They were ranked #12 in the country so they were drastically overrated last year and now history is repeating itself. Now they will be either ranked 1-2 and will be fortunate to end the season in the top 25. Everyone believes in the hype and jumps on the bandwagon. Having below average players fill in for walk ons isn't going to give them 10 more wins this season. No matter what for me they will have to prove they can be an elite team first. I just don't see them being any higher than a #4 seed.

Don't fall for the hype ericd.

I'm going with the safe bet in Northwestern to win the BIG.

I'm not falling for any hype, I did some pretty thorough research putting this together. They lost a lot of close games, I think they flip that switch and win most of them simply due to experience. Izzo is a fantastic coach. I actually think collectively they were overrated because we probably expected more out of the freshman class, but some of the guys were ranked in the 20's and 30's so because of that, those types of guys it's tougher to come in and win solely with Freshman.

 

[rmilia1]

I do worry about MSU dealing with the expectations. Izzos young teams are notoriously slow starting and a slow starter can really fuck with your psyche when you're young and coming off a mediocre season . I think they win the B10 but I'm on record saying I don't think it's a run away . Teams 1-9 are much closer than people seem to think .