End of Non Conf. Bracketology 12.26.16

[ericd7633]

With the close of non conference action(for the most part) I wanted to update my bracketology from my original one I did at the beginning of November. Please keep in mind I always try and mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee will do based on past history and precedence. With only about 40% of the regular season complete, it is very hard to gauge because resumes are not even at the half way point, because of that, I did try to project ahead somewhat(but still use bracketing principles), after about the top 10-12 teams. For example, Indiana sits at 92 in the RPI, I have them in this bracket even though the lowest RPI team to ever get an At-Large Bid was New Mexico at 74 in 1999. It's safe to say at the end of the year the team ranked 92 won't be sniffing an At-Large Bid.

Of note, since Conference play hasn't begun(except for the MAAC), I designate the team with the highest RPI as the projected winner of the conference, so they get the automatic selection. For example, I don't think Florida(SEC), Minnesota(B1G) or USC(Pac 12) will win their respective conferences, but for this exercise, that's what I'm going to use. Moving forward with subsequent bracket projections, I will use the current leader in the standings.

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. Mt. St. Mary's(NEC)/NCCU(MEAC)
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. Virginia Tech
9. Illinois

5. Notre Dame
12. MONMOUTH(MAAC)
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Wisconsin
13. VALPARAISO(HORIZON)

6. FLORIDA(SEC)
11. Rhode Island/Michigan
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
3. West Virginia
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON(BIG SKY)

7. St. Mary's
10. Northwestern
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. LOUISVILLE(ACC)
15. YALE(IVY)

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. BAYLOR(BIG 12)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)/LBSU(BIG WEST)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. MINNESOTA(B1G)
9. TEMPLE(AAC)

5. Arizona
12. Texas A&M/Iowa State
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
4. Florida State
13. UT-CHATTANOOGA(SOUTHERN)

6. Arkansas
11. Wichita State
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. Duke
14. WINTHROP(BIG SOUTH)

7. Clemson
10. TEXAS-ARLINGTON(SUN BELT)
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Butler
15. NICHOLLS(SOUTHLAND)

West Regional(San Jose, CA)

1. UCLA
16 LOYOLA, MD(PATRIOT LEAGUE)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
8. Pittsburgh
9. Oklahoma State

5. Purdue
12. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. Xavier
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. Oregon
11. SMU
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. Kentucky
14. ILLINOIS STATE(MVC)

7. Cincinnati
10. Miami, FL
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
2. Creighton
15. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. FGCU(A-SUN)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Seton Hall
9. Texas Tech

5. Indiana
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(C-USA)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
4. USC(PAC 12)
13. TENNESSEE STATE(OVC)

6. Maryland
11. UNC-WILMINGTON(CAA)
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
3. North Carolina
14. AKRON(MAC)

7. South Carolina
10. VCU(A-10)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
2. Kansas
15. OMAHA(SUMMIT LEAGUE)

Top 10 "S" Curve: Villanova, Baylor, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville, Creighton, Butler, Duke, Kentucky
Last 4 BYES: Northwestern, SMU, Miami(Fl), Wichita State
Last 4 IN: Rhode Island, Michigan, Texas A&M, Iowa State
First 4 OUT: Dayton, NC State, Marquette, Providence
Next 4 OUT: Ohio State, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Auburn

A LOT is going to change between now and even the next bracket update(which I'll do in mid-January). At that point we will be a third of the way through conference play, so the resumes will start taking shape and there will be a much better indicator on where things stand.

 

[jeffro151]

With the close of non conference action(for the most part) I wanted to update my bracketology from my original one I did at the beginning of November. Please keep in mind I always try and mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee will do based on past history and precedence. With only about 40% of the regular season complete, it is very hard to gauge because resumes are not even at the half way point, because of that, I did try to project ahead somewhat(but still use bracketing principles), after about the top 10-12 teams. For example, Indiana sits at 92 in the RPI, I have them in this bracket even though the lowest RPI team to ever get an At-Large Bid was New Mexico at 74 in 1999. It's safe to say at the end of the year the team ranked 92 won't be sniffing an At-Large Bid.

Of note, since Conference play hasn't begun(except for the MAAC), I designate the team with the highest RPI as the projected winner of the conference, so they get the automatic selection. For example, I don't think Florida(SEC), Minnesota(B1G) or USC(Pac 12) will win their respective conferences, but for this exercise, that's what I'm going to use. Moving forward with subsequent bracket projections, I will use the current leader in the standings.

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. Mt. St. Mary's(NEC)/NCCU(MEAC)
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. Virginia Tech
9. Illinois

5. Notre Dame
12. MONMOUTH(MAAC)
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Wisconsin
13. VALPARAISO(HORIZON)

6. FLORIDA(SEC)
11. Rhode Island/Michigan
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
3. West Virginia
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON(BIG SKY)

7. St. Mary's
10. Northwestern
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. LOUISVILLE(ACC)
15. YALE(IVY)

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. BAYLOR(BIG 12)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)/LBSU(BIG WEST)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. MINNESOTA(B1G)
9. TEMPLE(AAC)

5. Arizona
12. Texas A&M/Iowa State
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
4. Florida State
13. UT-CHATTANOOGA(SOUTHERN)

6. Arkansas
11. Wichita State
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. Duke
14. WINTHROP(BIG SOUTH)

7. Clemson
10. TEXAS-ARLINGTON(SUN BELT)
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Butler
15. NICHOLLS(SOUTHLAND)

West Regional(San Jose, CA)

1. UCLA
16 LOYOLA, MD(PATRIOT LEAGUE)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
8. Pittsburgh
9. Oklahoma State

5. Purdue
12. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. Xavier
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. Oregon
11. SMU
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. Kentucky
14. ILLINOIS STATE(MVC)

7. Cincinnati
10. Miami, FL
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
2. Creighton
15. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. FGCU(A-SUN)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Seton Hall
9. Texas Tech

5. Indiana
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(C-USA)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
4. USC(PAC 12)
13. TENNESSEE STATE(OVC)

6. Maryland
11. UNC-WILMINGTON(CAA)
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
3. North Carolina
14. AKRON(MAC)

7. South Carolina
10. VCU(A-10)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
2. Kansas
15. OMAHA(SUMMIT LEAGUE)

Top 10 "S" Curve: Villanova, Baylor, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville, Creighton, Butler, Duke, Kentucky
Last 4 BYES: Northwestern, SMU, Miami(Fl), Wichita State
Last 4 IN: Rhode Island, Michigan, Texas A&M, Iowa State
First 4 OUT: Dayton, NC State, Marquette, Providence
Next 4 OUT: Ohio State, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Auburn

A LOT is going to change between now and even the next bracket update(which I'll do in mid-January). At that point we will be a third of the way through conference play, so the resumes will start taking shape and there will be a much better indicator on where things stand.

Maybe I'm blind, but I don't see UVa listed?

 

[jontaejones]

I will be shocked if Butler is able to stay on the top 2 lines.

Maybe I'm blind, but I don't see UVa listed?

You think they'll make it?

Other predictions...

Oregon wins the Pac-12.
Kansas wins the Big 12 and is a 1 seed.

 

[ericd7633]

Maybe I'm blind, but I don't see UVa listed?

Had them then readjusted to try and maintain the bracket principles and forgot to put them back in. They'd be the best 4 seed right now.

 

[ericd7633]

I will be shocked if Butler is able to stay on the top 2 lines.


You think they'll make it?

Other predictions...

Oregon wins the Pac-12.
Kansas wins the Big 12 and is a 1 seed.

I think Butler could stay on the 2 line, but wouldn't bet on it happening. I do think if it started today that's where they'd be. I was more so projecting for teams like Indiana, Wisconsin etc because their resume will eventually catch up to their quality as a team IMO.