Early candidates for Coach of the Year

[Lake Shore Drive]

Some good names here, including four* who have already won this award. At this point in the season, these would be my leading candidates:

Mike Vrabel* - Pats
Shane Steichen - Colts
Sean Payton* - Broncos
Sean McVay* - Rams
Ben Johnson - Bears
Nick Siriani* - Eagles
Mike Macdonald - Seahawks

If the voters were to lean toward a newbie, then Steichen would likely have the edge. But the four previous winners are all worthy candidates, with Vrabel perhaps doing the most with what he has.

 

[Battlelyon]

A tough year for sure, Stephen has the lead in my opinion. Shanny should also be a nominee

 

[Southieinnc]

 

[cdumler7]

View attachment 413660

It is a weird reward. Rarely does it actually go to the best coach of the year just the one that took a dumpster fire team the year before to now playoff eligible.

This year though there are a lot of guys really deserving. I look at that list and could be ok with any of them winning and feeling like they picked the right guy. If we are talking worst to first though probably Vrabel is the guy that will win. And much deserved. I do expect quite a bit of regression though with them going from maybe easiest schedule in the league to a 1st place schedule next year.

 

[FanDual]

Shanahan if he gets to 11 wins and playoffs. The man k literally had to play everyone he had on ps, yet he appears playoff bound

 

[Southieinnc]

It is a weird reward. Rarely does it actually go to the best coach of the year just the one that took a dumpster fire team the year before to now playoff eligible.

This year though there are a lot of guys really deserving. I look at that list and could be ok with any of them winning and feeling like they picked the right guy. If we are talking worst to first though probably Vrabel is the guy that will win. And much deserved. I do expect quite a bit of regression though with them going from maybe easiest schedule in the league to a 1st place schedule next year.

As you know, the schedule is not determined by your 1st or last place finish.
You play 6 games in division, 4 games against 1 AFC division, 4 games against 1 NFC division and then 3 "random" games against equal finishers.

That means the Pats and Bills have identical schedules except for those 3 random games.
3 random Pats games were/are against Raiders, Titans and Giants, 3 last place teams
3 random Bills games were/are against Chiefs, Texans and Eagles 1 1st place team and 2 3rd place teams.

This schedule difference is mostly offset by the Bills, a 1st place team, getting 2 games against the Pats, a last place team.
The net result is the Bills game against the Eagles.
This happens every year. Regardless of what happens this year, The Bills and Patriots will play the same schedule in 14 of 17 games

 

[Brees#1]

It's Vrabel. COTY is always some shocking contending coach out of the blue.

 

[cdumler7]

As you know, the schedule is not determined by your 1st or last place finish.
You play 6 games in division, 4 games against 1 AFC division, 4 games against 1 NFC division and then 3 "random" games against equal finishers.

That means the Pats and Bills have identical schedules except for those 3 random games.
3 random Pats games were/are against Raiders, Titans and Giants, 3 last place teams
3 random Bills games were/are against Chiefs, Texans and Eagles 1 1st place team and 2 3rd place teams.

This schedule difference is mostly offset by the Bills, a 1st place team, getting 2 games against the Pats, a last place team.
The net result is the Bills game against the Eagles.
This happens every year. Regardless of what happens this year, The Bills and Patriots will play the same schedule in 14 of 17 games

Oh I agree that for the most part it would be the same schedule other than a few games. Raiders, Titans, Giants though sounds even this year so much easier. Chiefs and Texans could easily climb out of the 3rd place spot and end up a playoff teams. So I still think when we look at the end of the year there will be a decent difference in what the Bills have had to play becuase those 3 games weigh heavier.

The other side of things is 1) Bills are probably going to be the 5 seed if they do not win the division. So both teams by the end will be bottom half of the league in strength of schedule when not playing each other. 2) 1st year coaches can sometimes catch people by surprise. When the schedule was first released most probably saw the Pats as a winnable game. Next year they will not be viewed that way. I'm not saying the Pats will go from possibly 1 seed to out of the playoffs next year. It just might be a 2-3 game drop compared to this year.

 

[Southieinnc]

Oh I agree that for the most part it would be the same schedule other than a few games. Raiders, Titans, Giants though sounds even this year so much easier. Chiefs and Texans could easily climb out of the 3rd place spot and end up a playoff teams. So I still think when we look at the end of the year there will be a decent difference in what the Bills have had to play becuase those 3 games weigh heavier.

The other side of things is 1) Bills are probably going to be the 5 seed if they do not win the division. So both teams by the end will be bottom half of the league in strength of schedule when not playing each other. 2) 1st year coaches can sometimes catch people by surprise. When the schedule was first released most probably saw the Pats as a winnable game. Next year they will not be viewed that way. I'm not saying the Pats will go from possibly 1 seed to out of the playoffs next year. It just might be a 2-3 game drop compared to this year.

Or not.

Bill Belichick's lasting imprint on the NFL, and why he shouldn't stop coaching just yet

We've closed the book on the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL, as Bill Belichick is leaving the Patriots.

www.espn.com

 

[Gypsumstack]

It's Vrabel. COTY is always some shocking contending coach out of the blue.

This was my answer when I clicked on the thread, but after seeing the list in the OP, I'm not sure. Just in that list you have Pats, Colts, Seahawks, Bears, and Broncos. All of those could be considered an out of the blue contenders to some extent.