Draft value what is it

[CEH]

Great “draft value” . He is great value in the 2nd.

What is it and why do I care if denver drafts it?

 

[listopencil]

If a guy is available at the top of the 2nd round that many people thought would be drafted at the bottom of the 1st. That's "draft value" and the sports media will congratulate the Broncos if they pull it off.

 

[CEH]

If a guy is available at the top of the 2nd round that many people thought would be drafted at the bottom of the 1st. That's "draft value" and the sports media will congratulate the Broncos if they pull it off.

Interesting you said “sports media”
Leads me to my next question
So is it important to actual NFL decision makers ?

 

[listopencil]

Interesting you said “sports media”
Leads me to my next question
So is it important to actual NFL decision makers ?

I think each team has a big board. They list the prospects according to their own perceived value of each one. Then they take note of whether that prospect will fit in with the team or not. If someone on their board becomes available that they didn't think they had a chance of grabbing, thew pick is a slam dunk to them and holds tremendous value. If no one is available that they want, they entertain a trade proposal as a way of keeping the value of that selection to use it later.

 

[SpringStein]

Not just sports media. There is also a committee, put together to help underclassmen determine where they might go, that assigns grades as well. I would say they are limited to on-field grades as they don’t have the interviews and background checks that the teams do. Classic example was Reuben Foster that most pundits and mocks had as a top 10 pick who was a “value” selection at 28. But apparently a number of teams had removed him from their boards - and John Lynch probably regrets he hadn’t done the same.

It ain’t an exact science, so it will never be perfect. But each team spends millions on scouting and compiling their draft boards.

 

[Mingo]

At this stage - now and just after the draft - "draft value" is a perception - based on available information - including - eye witness scouting. A year or two down the road - "draft value" transforms into describing actual pro football performance - by the differently drafted, or undrafted, college players.

So Philip Lindsay would not have been a draft value (unless you asked me) at this stage last year - he is now universally acknowledge as an UDFA signing of great wisdom and value. Josh Rosen - has gone in reverse of Philip Lindsay - based on last year.

 

[femurov]

Interesting you said “sports media”
Leads me to my next question
So is it important to actual NFL decision makers ?

I think each team has a big board. They list the prospects according to their own perceived value of each one. Then they take note of whether that prospect will fit in with the team or not. If someone on their board becomes available that they didn't think they had a chance of grabbing, thew pick is a slam dunk to them and holds tremendous value. If no one is available that they want, they entertain a trade proposal as a way of keeping the value of that selection to use it later.

There are 2 basic strategies for how to approach the draft. One way is to identify your weakest starters on the team and draft the best available player who plays one of those positions. Usually, the weaker the player you are replacing, the earlier you will draft their replacement. The other way is to take the best available player on your board no matter what position he plays. Most teams will use some sort of a mixture between the two strategies and a lot of times it depends on a few factors as to how you determine that balance... how big of an upgrade the new kid is over the guy he is replacing, the age of the guy he is replacing, how many holes you have a big need to fill, what kind of position your team is in, in terms of their success in the league (rebuild, up and coming, perennial playoff, etc), and especially, what the draft has to offer.

So, let's say we went into this draft 100% with the first strategy. Let's say Todd McShay was running our team and he identified QB, WR, G, TE, and DT as our top 5 needs. I'm not sure if they are in order or not, but let's say that they are. Let's go extreme and say that Murray, Haskins, Lock and Daniel Jones are all gone when we pick in the 1st at 10. If we are fully committed to this strategy, we would be trying our ass off to move down, but if we couldn't, we would be drafting someone like Ryan Finley or Will Grier.

Now, let's go to the other extreme. We go into the draft and we are going to select the highest rated guy on our board no matter what position he plays. So, we know going into the draft that the worst player we are going to take is whoever the #10 guy is on our board. Kiper has Montez Sweat at 10 as of 3/28. I couldn't find McShay's. So, if Kiper's top 9 are all gone, he would be the pick at 10.

So, realistically, we are going to use some mixture of these two strategies. Let's say that somehow, Quinnen Williams is available at #10 and we end up selecting him there. Drew Lock (projected to go from anywhere to us in the first to the end of the first) somehow falls to us at 41 and G Chris Lindstrom (projected anywhere from the late 1st to mid 2nd) falls to us at in the 3rd. That would be incredible value. If we end up with something like Daniel Jones (projected mid first to late first) at 10, G Michael Jordan (projected 3rd or 4th round) in the 2nd and WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (projected 4th to late round), then that would be horrible value.

 

[CEH]

At this stage - now and just after the draft - "draft value" is a perception - based on available information - including - eye witness scouting. A year or two down the road - "draft value" transforms into describing actual pro football performance - by the differently drafted, or undrafted, college players.

So Philip Lindsay would not have been a draft value (unless you asked me) at this stage last year - he is now universally acknowledge as an UDFA signing of great wisdom and value. Josh Rosen - has gone in reverse of Philip Lindsay - based on last year.

I agree . It’s a perceived or subjective value that is a direct reflection on the teams evaluation process . Only after the player hits the field can it become objective .

 

[CEH]

There are 2 basic strategies for how to approach the draft. One way is to identify your weakest starters on the team and draft the best available player who plays one of those positions. Usually, the weaker the player you are replacing, the earlier you will draft their replacement. The other way is to take the best available player on your board no matter what position he plays. Most teams will use some sort of a mixture between the two strategies and a lot of times it depends on a few factors as to how you determine that balance... how big of an upgrade the new kid is over the guy he is replacing, the age of the guy he is replacing, how many holes you have a big need to fill, what kind of position your team is in, in terms of their success in the league (rebuild, up and coming, perennial playoff, etc), and especially, what the draft has to offer.

So, let's say we went into this draft 100% with the first strategy. Let's say Todd McShay was running our team and he identified QB, WR, G, TE, and DT as our top 5 needs. I'm not sure if they are in order or not, but let's say that they are. Let's go extreme and say that Murray, Haskins, Lock and Daniel Jones are all gone when we pick in the 1st at 10. If we are fully committed to this strategy, we would be trying our ass off to move down, but if we couldn't, we would be drafting someone like Ryan Finley or Will Grier.

Now, let's go to the other extreme. We go into the draft and we are going to select the highest rated guy on our board no matter what position he plays. So, we know going into the draft that the worst player we are going to take is whoever the #10 guy is on our board. Kiper has Montez Sweat at 10 as of 3/28. I couldn't find McShay's. So, if Kiper's top 9 are all gone, he would be the pick at 10.

So, realistically, we are going to use some mixture of these two strategies. Let's say that somehow, Quinnen Williams is available at #10 and we end up selecting him there. Drew Lock (projected to go from anywhere to us in the first to the end of the first) somehow falls to us at 41 and G Chris Lindstrom (projected anywhere from the late 1st to mid 2nd) falls to us at in the 3rd. That would be incredible value. If we end up with something like Daniel Jones (projected mid first to late first) at 10, G Michael Jordan (projected 3rd or 4th round) in the 2nd and WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (projected 4th to late round), then that would be horrible value.

Thanks for the response

I’m glad you mentioned the scenario with Lock. Is that great value or terrible draft evaluation? It’s the teams evaluation process vs the collective NFL.

Once a player’s drafted about 1/2 round later it becomes about whether the team is evaluating correctly. Only the success of the player can determine that but the teams need to do a retrospective on their draft process .

Remember the narrative that Denver thought about Booker in the 2nd?
That was “great value “ but had he actually been drafted in the 2nd terrible evaluation. Back in 2002 denver waS not looking for a RB but the top RB on their board was there so at that point they drafted Portis . In that case great evaluation by the team vs the NFL.

Sure the unicorns are out there like Rodgers, Moss, Marino but most cases the perceived “draft value” can be traced back to bad evaluation.

I’d like teams to start using AI to help find value. Maybe some are. Too much data to ignore. At least to break arguments. Cynthia Friedland has been doing this for a couple years now. Last year a day after the draft her #1 value was James. In the Donald draft , it was Donald.

This years she’s projecting Wilkins and Baker. Be interesting to see the results this year.

 

[listopencil]

Thanks for the response

I’m glad you mentioned the scenario with Lock. Is that great value or terrible draft evaluation? It’s the teams evaluation process vs the collective NFL.

Once a player’s drafted about 1/2 round later it becomes about whether the team is evaluating correctly. Only the success of the player can determine that but the teams need to do a retrospective on their draft process .

Remember the narrative that Denver thought about Booker in the 2nd?
That was “great value “ but had he actually been drafted in the 2nd terrible evaluation. Back in 2002 denver waS not looking for a RB but the top RB on their board was there so at that point they drafted Portis . In that case great evaluation by the team vs the NFL.

Sure the unicorns are out there like Rodgers, Moss, Marino but most cases the perceived “draft value” can be traced back to bad evaluation.

I’d like teams to start using AI to help find value. Maybe some are. Too much data to ignore. At least to break arguments. Cynthia Friedland has been doing this for a couple years now. Last year a day after the draft her #1 value was James. In the Donald draft , it was Donald.

This years she’s projecting Wilkins and Baker. Be interesting to see the results this year.

I watched a video of her discussing her mock. I thought great, she's hot and she knows football, I like her already. Then I saw that she mocked us as Jonah Williams - OL at #10 and Drew Lock - QB at #41. I hate her now.

 

[femurov]

Thanks for the response

I’m glad you mentioned the scenario with Lock. Is that great value or terrible draft evaluation? It’s the teams evaluation process vs the collective NFL.

Once a player’s drafted about 1/2 round later it becomes about whether the team is evaluating correctly. Only the success of the player can determine that but the teams need to do a retrospective on their draft process .

Remember the narrative that Denver thought about Booker in the 2nd?
That was “great value “ but had he actually been drafted in the 2nd terrible evaluation. Back in 2002 denver waS not looking for a RB but the top RB on their board was there so at that point they drafted Portis . In that case great evaluation by the team vs the NFL.

Sure the unicorns are out there like Rodgers, Moss, Marino but most cases the perceived “draft value” can be traced back to bad evaluation.

I’d like teams to start using AI to help find value. Maybe some are. Too much data to ignore. At least to break arguments. Cynthia Friedland has been doing this for a couple years now. Last year a day after the draft her #1 value was James. In the Donald draft , it was Donald.

This years she’s projecting Wilkins and Baker. Be interesting to see the results this year.

Hindsight is always 20/20 and in reality, all it takes is for 1 team to fall in love with a player and be willing to draft him. Think back on the year we drafted Tim Tebow. We were that team unfortunately.

 

[SpringStein]

And I was the fool who laughed at how much the Chiefs gave up to move up for Mahomes.

 

[femurov]

And I was the fool who laughed at how much the Chiefs gave up to move up for Mahomes.

Yeah... pretty sure I made some snide comments about how much they reached for him.

 

[Mingo]

And I was the fool who laughed at how much the Chiefs gave up to move up for Mahomes.

No - I laughed louder and longer. You are always trying to take credit.

 

[CEH]

Be hard pressed to find a better drafting team over the last 5 years than KC.

Masterclass

 

[Draft Crazy]

Be hard pressed to find a better drafting team over the last 5 years than KC.

Masterclass

Really irritates me too.

 

[Draft Crazy]

And I was the fool who laughed at how much the Chiefs gave up to move up for Mahomes.

You just got tired of me having him on my college fantasy team.

 

[Duffman]

Be hard pressed to find a better drafting team over the last 5 years than KC.

Masterclass

Ya no one drafts 1st round players and then trades them off in a few years like KC. Be on the look out for Mahomes to get traded in 2021.