Do you reach or go chalk?

[cwalke3408]

When you're at the top of the draft with clear cut S-tier prospects, you take them. Now is not the time to try to outsmart everyone else

 

[SmokingMonkey]

When you're at the top of the draft with clear cut S-tier prospects, you take them. Now is not the time to try to outsmart everyone else

Correct. Being the contrary guy in the first 5 picks is just adding unnecessary risk into the equation.

But from what I've been able to tell over the years, milk is gonna milk, no matter what anyone says

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[averagejoe]

Even though the good experts have a 60% success rate, I would say you cant go too wrong taking anyone from the first 2 rounds. Maybe even 3.

By round 4, i feel rankings get more convoluted. And there's a lot i cant see happening regardless of how convincing an expert may spew. So by round 5, all bets are off for the rankings.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

When you're at the top of the draft with clear cut S-tier prospects, you take them. Now is not the time to try to outsmart everyone else

But that is not what this thread is about. It is not about taking risks. It’s about having your own opinion and not basing it on someone else’s opinion. If you don’t trust yourself then just do an auto draft.

 

[tlance]

It’s similar to putting someone on you don’t draft list.
What if you for whatever reason don’t like bijan. And you saw that Gibbs, Chase, Jsn and Luka were all already taken. Would you still pass on him. Even though you don’t think he will do well this season??

Well, I would never have an unproven player in a bad offense rated that high. So your point is moot.

I did famously take rookie Zeke at #1 overall in MBBRL 1 year, but I do think that was different. First off, he was ranked as a clear cut mid 1st round RB, (Jeanty is not) and he was running behind possibly the best Oline in football and starting for a pretty decent offense.

 

[tlance]

But that is not what this thread is about. It is not about taking risks. It’s about having your own opinion and not basing it on someone else’s opinion. If you don’t trust yourself then just do an auto draft.

No.

I think YOU are missing the point.

There is no way to have a research and fact based opinion that Jeanty is worth a top 3 pick.

It is not there.

What you are talking about is a pure hunch and going way out on a limb with a massive round 1 reach.

There is a big difference between not straying too far from ADP at the top of the first and autodrafting.

Of course I have preferences between guys in those spots. But I am never going to draft a dime over a quarter. Just won’t happen. And doing so is a sure fire losing strategy.

 

[cwalke3408]

But that is not what this thread is about. It is not about taking risks. It’s about having your own opinion and not basing it on someone else’s opinion. If you don’t trust yourself then just do an auto draft.

I'm all for planting a flag and going to get your guy but for me I also try to balance my notes with others (from rankings, podcasts, forums) especially at the top of the draft. If I'm the only one on the island like taking Jeanty over Bijan, then maybe there's something I'm missing or need to reconsider. If you're at the top of the draft, it better be right

Also the best part about hitting on gems is getting them at a discount and them outperforming their ADP. You can be correct but reaching so high on a gem can turn a Great steal into just a good pick.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

No.

I think YOU are missing the point.

There is no way to have a research and fact based opinion that Jeanty is worth a top 3 pick.

It is not there.

What you are talking about is a pure hunch and going way out on a limb with a massive round 1 reach.

There is a big difference between not straying too far from ADP at the top of the first and autodrafting.

Of course I have preferences between guys in those spots. But I am never going to draft a dime over a quarter. Just won’t happen. And doing so is a sure fire losing strategy.

Then you misread the OP. Nobody here has said they have done the research and think he is better.

The op asked what if you did.

 

[wildturkey]

Nah, Milk is right here. The way the OP has it phrased, its about personal evaluation for the first pick. Do you go with your work if it happens to go against the chalk or do you go with chalk. If you're trying to say you don't agree with that personal evaluation, that's not the argument. Scenario 1 is phrased to ask do you trust your work or conform to consensus knowing you won't get him if you do? Scenario 2 is the similar conundrum, but a little more open because the ADP round difference allows the possibility to still get the player if you initially pass.

 

[Judge Fudge]

It depends on the trend and is it close to the player im eyeing next

 

[tlance]

Nah, Milk is right here. The way the OP has it phrased, its about personal evaluation for the first pick. Do you go with your work if it happens to go against the chalk or do you go with chalk. If you're trying to say you don't agree with that personal evaluation, that's not the argument. Scenario 1 is phrased to ask do you trust your work or conform to consensus knowing you won't get him if you do? Scenario 2 is the similar conundrum, but a little more open because the ADP round difference allows the possibility to still get the player if you initially pass.

I actually think Milk exaggerated OP’s example and took it too far.

OP was comparing Jeanty to mid first round players that have some risk. CMAC and Puka.

Milk was the one that started saying 3 overall with that specific player example.

That is my issue with this example.

2-3 spots in round 1 makes a tremendous difference.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I actually think Milk exaggerated OP’s example and took it too far.

OP was comparing Jeanty to mid first round players that have some risk. CMAC and Puka.

Milk was the one that started saying 3 overall with that specific player example.

That is my issue with this example.

2-3 spots in round 1 makes a tremendous difference.

No you are stuck on the Jeanty aspect. I simply said if your best adp player is available and he won’t come back to you then he is not a reach. No matter what the consensus adp says.

 

[Chef99]

I'm very high on Jeanty, and I think, on paper, he's gonna have a breakout year.

Oline has been upgraded, and he should have a better shot at running the ball.

He was pretty good receiving out of the backfield last year, and coaching staff says they want to capitalize on that.

All that said, If I have the 3rd pick in the draft, I'm taking either Chase or James Cook.

That's assuming Bijan and Gibbs are the first two to go.

 

[Chef99]

Let's take a couple of scenarios (with examples). Say that:

Having done your personal evaluation, you really believe Jeanty is going to be the top RB this year. You pick third; his ADP is closer to the back end of the first. Do you take him, or take McCaffrey or Puka or something?

You're convinced Egbuka will step up in a huge way and be a top-10 WR and a better third-round value at your pick than anybody else on the board. His ADP is down around the early fifth, but sometimes he's going in the fourth and your fourth pick is late. What do you do?

Re-reading this, If I'm CONVINCED that both of these players are going to be league winners, that's who I draft.

It's all in the wording here.

 

[tlance]

No you are stuck on the Jeanty aspect. I simply said if your best adp player is available and he won’t come back to you then he is not a reach. No matter what the consensus adp says.

That was the example you gave.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That was the example you gave.

Not me. That was the example given in the op.

 

[tlance]

Not me. That was the example given in the op.

He said Jeanty and gave the example of picking him ahead of players like CMC and Puka.

You said 3 overall.

That is not where CMC is going in most drafts.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

He said Jeanty and gave the example of picking him ahead of players like CMC and Puka.

You said 3 overall.

That is not where CMC is going in most drafts.

Read the op again. You want to but blame on me. Fine. Not even sure what you are blaming me for. Is it really that you don’t want to lose an argument??

 

[tlance]

Read the op again. You want to but blame on me. Fine. Not even sure what you are blaming me for. Is it really that you don’t want to lose an argument??

Ok, I missed that line about 3rd.

Still a hard no for me.

 

[tlance]

Ok, I missed that line about 3rd.

Still a hard no for me.

I would add that taking Puka or St. Brown or somebody like that at 3 could be a research based choice that bucks the trends.

Taking Jeanty that early is a hope and a prayer.

Not the same thing.