DK Metcalf RoTY?

[Anointed One]

Wilson and Lockett hurt his case.

Wilson because he's playing at an MVP level so it's going to lead to questions of how good is DK really when Wilson is throwing you the ball.

And Lockett because he's clearly the leading WR on the team and people assume DK gets better looks because Lockett commands more attention.

If you're going to have a chance to win the award at WR you clearly need to be the #1 on your team and it helps if you're QB isn't leading the MVP race so the conversation can be had that you're helping the QB not the QB making you.

I don't buy that logic... For example, in 2009 Percy Harvin won OROTY, he had Brett Favre throwing him the ball... Favre had a great season with Sidney Rice having a monster season...

 

[Jikkle]

I don't buy that logic... For example, in 2009 Percy Harvin won OROTY, he had Brett Favre throwing him the ball... Favre had a great season with Sidney Rice having a monster season...

2009 was a weak year in general for skill positions with Stafford being the only rookie QB of note and he played 10 games, none of the rookie RBs did anything special, and Harvin was the best rookie WR out of the group.

Harvin also probably got a boost because of his kickoff return ability. That year he had 2 kickoff returns for TDs and he was 7th in the league in all purpose yards.

Harvin also had some rushing yards on his resume which not a lot did bolster his resume.

DK only has his receiving numbers going for him and guys like Josh Jacobs and Murray who are putting together quality years.

 

[Screamin12th]

here is a nice little tracker for OROY award. This is used for betting odds and DK is not out of it by any means what so ever. He will need to continue putting up yards and TD but they all will. The fact that he is even in the top 5 ( 4th ) speaks to how good he has been even on a team that is a run first offense.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/offensive-rookie-year-odds/


As good as DK has looked in some games this season imagine what he will be like in 3 years! Thats scary and Jikkle is wetting himself out of fear. We all know WR is the hardest skill position next to QB to be good Right away and DK is GOOD! DK is MASSIVE! DK is FAST! DK is a BEAST!

 

[MrS]

2009 was a weak year in general for skill positions with Stafford being the only rookie QB of note and he played 10 games, none of the rookie RBs did anything special, and Harvin was the best rookie WR out of the group.

Harvin also probably got a boost because of his kickoff return ability. That year he had 2 kickoff returns for TDs and he was 7th in the league in all purpose yards.

Harvin also had some rushing yards on his resume which not a lot did bolster his resume.

DK only has his receiving numbers going for him and guys like Josh Jacobs and Murray who are putting together quality years.

Im not imprsssed by a rookie rb putting up good numbers, it happens every year.

A rookie WR putting up 60 catches 900 yards and 8-10 TDs is a rarer happening. It would be up there with the best rookie WR seasons all time.

 

[blstoker]

I think some of that can contribute to the fact that WR position takes a bit longer to learn in the NFL right out of the gate... Much easier for RB's to come in and have success than receivers... Lower volume of WR's actually having success as a rookie makes it a bit tougher to win the award week in and week out...

Agreed, but other than Harvin (who came out in a down RB year) and Pickens (how Watters didn't win the ROY in '92 is beyond me), WRs have had to have either 100 receptions (Boldin) or 1300 yards (Boldin, Moss and Bekham) or 12 TDs (Moss and Bekham) over the last 30 years.

Not saying DK has had great plays and games this season, just that he isn't putting up numbers that have been historically required to win the award when there's a viable RB or QB for the award.

 

[blstoker]

Im not imprsssed by a rookie rb putting up good numbers, it happens every year.

A rookie WR putting up 60 catches 900 yards and 8-10 TDs is a rarer happening. It would be up there with the best rookie WR seasons all time.

Those numbers are good for a WR, but not best of all time. Not even in the top 20. Good, not best of all time.

Maybe not even best numbers for a rookie WR in Seahawks history (Joey Galloway,1995, 67-1039-7)

 

[Podunkparte]

Wilson and Lockett hurt his case.

Wilson because he's playing at an MVP level so it's going to lead to questions of how good is DK really when Wilson is throwing you the ball.

And Lockett because he's clearly the leading WR on the team and people assume DK gets better looks because Lockett commands more attention.

If you're going to have a chance to win the award at WR you clearly need to be the #1 on your team and it helps if you're QB isn't leading the MVP race so the conversation can be had that you're helping the QB not the QB making you.

Yeah, that's really not how these things are looked at. Was Jerry Rice actually a lesser receiver because he had Steve Young throwing him the ball? Of course not. Guys produce big numbers because they have other good players getting them the opportunities to do so.

And no, Tyler Lockett being good doesn't discredit DK's rookie production. That argument only holds water if Tyler Lockett is also a rookie or if DK is competing against another rookie WR who doesn't have that guy. In fact, that's Terry McLaurin, though I think he's trailed off recently and DK should rise above him in ranking.

 

[Screamin12th]

Those numbers are good for a WR, but not best of all time. Not even in the top 20. Good, not best of all time.

Maybe not even best numbers for a rookie WR in Seahawks history (Joey Galloway,1995, 67-1039-7)

actually i think those are top 20 stats for "rookie" WR's.

That would put them just outside this list of top 5.
Top rookie seasons of the Super Bowl era: Wide receiver edition

Dk projections if he just kept playing like he did the first 9 would put him at
52 rec 933 yards 18.1 YPC 9TD
And thats saying he flatlines and doesn't improve which he has been doing. I am shocked there is a 49er fan chiming in when DK's stats would be tops on the 49ers team and it's not even close. lol

 

[blstoker]

actually i think those are top 20 stats for "rookie" WR's.

That would put them just outside this list of top 5.
Top rookie seasons of the Super Bowl era: Wide receiver edition

Dk projections if he just kept playing like he did the first 9 would put him at
52 rec 933 yards 18.1 YPC 9TD
And thats saying he flatlines and doesn't improve which he has been doing. I am shocked there is a 49er fan chiming in when DK's stats would be tops on the 49ers team and it's not even close. lol

Well, there’s 19 WR all time who had over a thousand yards their rookie year, 34 with 900 or more. 53 had at least 8 TDS, and 41 with 60 catches. Those are the rookie numbers.

Not saying that DK isn’t having a great year, but in the context of rookie of the year WR tend to have to have special seasons to win it and Metcalf just isn’t putting up those kinds of numbers.

 

[Anointed One]

What can help DK is the fact that Josh Jacobs isn't running away with it... He's been solid, not spectacular...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

He's certainly in the running but Jacobs or Minshew will have to slow down first. The NFL LOVES giving out OROY to QBs and RBs as well... it takes something MAJOR for a WR to win it and fairly lackluster for other players.

There's been 3 since Randy Moss (Harvin, Boldin, Beckham Jr.) and 9 all time from the AP. Most have been RB/QB with ONE tight end lol.

In the Beckham year (2014) Derek Carr was about it but only threw for 3K yards and was 3-13. Minshew is on pace for 4K yards and a better TD/INT ratio. Beckham also had multiple highlight reels from his rookie performance and put up 91 receptions, 12 TDs, etc. Metcalf is on PACE for 9 TDs, and probably 800-900 yards with LA and SF (x2) to go.

In the Harvin year (2009), that draft was one of the worst of all time. There were really no notable QBs (Stafford was bleh) and all the RBs were busts. Harvin was also dominant in the kick return game, which Metcalf doesn't do.

In the Boldin year (2004), Boldin shattered the rookie record for receptions with 101. That'll do it.



That said, outside of Harvin which is bleh, he'll need to start getting big highlight reels (OBJ) or start taking rookie records. Harvin had the luxury of a shit class and a ridiculous return game... but Boldin and Moss (most TDs) both took rookie records.

As of now I don't see how DK Metcalf gets in at his current pace unless Minshew or Jacobs get injured. And the Bucs are terrible, I expect San Fran (have to play twice) to shut him down entirely.

 

[dkmightyhammer]

He's certainly in the running but Jacobs or Minshew will have to slow down first. The NFL LOVES giving out OROY to QBs and RBs as well... it takes something MAJOR for a WR to win it and fairly lackluster for other players.

There's been 3 since Randy Moss (Harvin, Boldin, Beckham Jr.) and 9 all time from the AP. Most have been RB/QB with ONE tight end lol.

In the Beckham year (2014) Derek Carr was about it but only threw for 3K yards and was 3-13. Minshew is on pace for 4K yards and a better TD/INT ratio. Beckham also had multiple highlight reels from his rookie performance and put up 91 receptions, 12 TDs, etc. Metcalf is on PACE for 9 TDs, and probably 800-900 yards with LA and SF (x2) to go.

In the Harvin year (2009), that draft was one of the worst of all time. There were really no notable QBs (Stafford was bleh) and all the RBs were busts. Harvin was also dominant in the kick return game, which Metcalf doesn't do.

In the Boldin year (2004), Boldin shattered the rookie record for receptions with 101. That'll do it.



That said, outside of Harvin which is bleh, he'll need to start getting big highlight reels (OBJ) or start taking rookie records. Harvin had the luxury of a shit class and a ridiculous return game... but Boldin and Moss (most TDs) both took rookie records.

As of now I don't see how DK Metcalf gets in at his current pace unless Minshew or Jacobs get injured. And the Bucs are terrible, I expect San Fran (have to play twice) to shut him down entirely.

I think we can conclude that Minshew is out of the race considering they announced they are going back to Foles as the starter for the Jags. So that will torpedo any hopes he had of winning OROY.

DK is still probably playing runner up to Jacobs and Murray though. I kind of doubt he wins it but it's still pretty cool just to have him in the running for it.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think it may be Jacobs to lose and maybe Kyler Murray when it all washes out. I think you can take Minshew out of the running, He was exposed last week and won't be starting again unless Foles gets injured. I think he was a flash in the pan anyway. I could be wrong but I'm not as impressed as others from what little I've seen. Of course, it doesn't help playing in a shit offense like Jax either.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I think we can conclude that Minshew is out of the race considering they announced they are going back to Foles as the starter for the Jags. So that will torpedo any hopes he had of winning OROY.

DK is still probably playing runner up to Jacobs and Murray though. I kind of doubt he wins it but it's still pretty cool just to have him in the running for it.

Oh yah I completely forgot about Foles...Hmm Minshew is playing so well... maybe they want to sit him and groom a bit more before giving him the reigns. Guess they did also pay Foles $88M lol. Wonder if Minshew gets traded for major draft capital if Foles can actually stay healthy.

Agreed though Jacobs and of course Murray (because quarterbacks!) are ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure Metcalf is even the best rookie WR at the moment. The rookie WR in Washington (McLaurin) might be ahead of Metcalf. Better reception/target ratio and same amount of TDs and one less game (WASH already had the bye), with a FAAAAAR worse QB situation.

 

[Jikkle]

Yeah, that's really not how these things are looked at. Was Jerry Rice actually a lesser receiver because he had Steve Young throwing him the ball? Of course not. Guys produce big numbers because they have other good players getting them the opportunities to do so.

And no, Tyler Lockett being good doesn't discredit DK's rookie production. That argument only holds water if Tyler Lockett is also a rookie or if DK is competing against another rookie WR who doesn't have that guy. In fact, that's Terry McLaurin, though I think he's trailed off recently and DK should rise above him in ranking.

I'm not referring to DK's quality as a player but how the voters will look at him when it comes to voting for him.

It's an uphill climb for a WR to win the award and if you have an MVP QB throwing you the ball and you're not the #1 WR on your team it'll likely ding you in the minds of the voters. If you're the #1 guy on your team and you have a good but not great QB throwing you the ball it shows off your talent more and you're more likely to get voters to consider you.

Impact plays a role in these awards as well which is why it heavily favors QBs and RBs because they have the most control over their impact and it's easier to see with those positions if a guy is impactful or not.

 

[Anointed One]

I'm not referring to DK's quality as a player but how the voters will look at him when it comes to voting for him.

It's an uphill climb for a WR to win the award and if you have an MVP QB throwing you the ball and you're not the #1 WR on your team it'll likely ding you in the minds of the voters. If you're the #1 guy on your team and you have a good but not great QB throwing you the ball it shows off your talent more and you're more likely to get voters to consider you.

Impact plays a role in these awards as well which is why it heavily favors QBs and RBs because they have the most control over their impact and it's easier to see with those positions if a guy is impactful or not.

I get what you're saying and understand that DK's going to have finish the year strong in order to get the OROTY... To spin it in a different way, don't think the voters would look at DK as helping the QB become the MVP of the league? Maybe because of DK's presence, RW and Lockett are able to have a great season as well... Could it be a coincidence that RW and Lockett are having their best seasons? RW didn't look this good when Lockett and Baldwin were together... Who knows...