CY Bum?

[calsnowskier]

There has been quite a bit of talk about Bum putting himself into the CY race after his amazing August. Does he have a chance?

Looking at the numbers (and I believe that the CY is a numbers-award), I don't think he has a chance. I think at this point, he is just trying to get on the ballot (CY ballots have 5 slots).

Some of his NL ranks...

3rd in IP
1st in Wins
3rd in K
14th in ERA
8th in WHIP
10th in vsBA

Greinke, on the other hand...

1st in IP
5th in Wins
8th in K
1st in ERA
1st in WHIP
1st in vsBA

Bum is elite, but he is NOT a serious CY candidate this year. I do not believe in giving pitchers the MVP award, but I could imagine Bum having a better chance for the MVP this year than the CY.

And I would definitely take Bum over Greinke in a fresh moving-forward draft.

 

[calsnowskier]

I THINK my ballot right now would be...

1) Greinke
2) Arrieta
3) Kershaw
4) Scherzer
5) Bumgarner

However, I think Garret Cole is closer to Bum than Bum is to Scherzer.

 

[LHG]

I write this with gritted teeth, but in 2015, Greinke is in a world of his own. Barring a complete meltdown in September (bigger miracles have happened), he should be the runaway choice for the NL Cy Young award.

I do think that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey should both be in the top 5 discussion as well. Behind Greinke, the group gets rather bunched up. And among those should be Bumgarner.

 

[tzill]

There has been quite a bit of talk about Bum putting himself into the CY race after his amazing August. Does he have a chance?

Looking at the numbers (and I believe that the CY is a numbers-award), I don't think he has a chance. I think at this point, he is just trying to get on the ballot (CY ballots have 5 slots).

Some of his NL ranks...

3rd in IP
1st in Wins
3rd in K
14th in ERA
8th in WHIP
10th in vsBA

Greinke, on the other hand...

1st in IP
5th in Wins
8th in K
1st in ERA
1st in WHIP
1st in vsBA

Bum is elite, but he is NOT a serious CY candidate this year. I do not believe in giving pitchers the MVP award, but I could imagine Bum having a better chance for the MVP this year than the CY.

And I would definitely take Bum over Greinke in a fresh moving-forward draft.

This is what dooms him. The vast majority of voters won't look past that stat.

 

[tzill]

Interesting discussion.

First, Greinke -- as has been mentioned -- is far and away the best SP in the NL. He's the CY.

After that, the second tier is comprised of two: Arrieta and Kershaw.
Tier 3 has only Scherzer in it.
Tier 4 has: Cole, DeGrom, Miller, Harvey
Bum is somewhere in Tier 5.

Bum is having a solid year, but not worthy of even being in the discussion for CY. He's never been a legit CY candidate, IMO. However, in the post-season....fuggedaboutit.

 

[Stokes1931]

 

[calsnowskier]

Interesting discussion.

First, Greinke -- as has been mentioned -- is far and away the best SP in the NL. He's the CY.

After that, the second tier is comprised of two: Arrieta and Kershaw.
Tier 3 has only Scherzer in it.
Tier 4 has: Cole, DeGrom, Miller, Harvey
Bum is somewhere in Tier 5.

Bum is having a solid year, but not worthy of even being in the discussion for CY. He's never been a legit CY candidate, IMO. However, in the post-season....fuggedaboutit.

I think Bum is a solid resident of your "Tier 4", but basically, I agree.

 

[Stokes1931]

 

[SFGRTB]

Interesting discussion.

First, Greinke -- as has been mentioned -- is far and away the best SP in the NL. He's the CY.

After that, the second tier is comprised of two: Arrieta and Kershaw.
Tier 3 has only Scherzer in it.
Tier 4 has: Cole, DeGrom, Miller, Harvey
Bum is somewhere in Tier 5.

Bum is having a solid year, but not worthy of even being in the discussion for CY. He's never been a legit CY candidate, IMO. However, in the post-season....fuggedaboutit.

Bum is pitching great at the right time. Voters definitely take that into account. Voters love strikeouts too.

 

[calsnowskier]

This is what dooms him. The vast majority of voters won't look past that stat.

They don't have to look past that, but if they did, they would see his WHIP and vsBA rankings. Those back up the fact that he is not a true CY candidate.

 

[calsnowskier]

Bum is pitching great at the right time. Voters definitely take that into account. Voters love strikeouts too.

This is why I think he will finish no worse that 5th.

But if you are looking at the numbers (like I said I believe the CY is a numbers award), he is only arguably in the top 5.

 

[tzill]

I think Bum is a solid resident of your "Tier 4", but basically, I agree.

Nah, check his ERA+ and WAR...he's not in the fourth tier so far. maybe by season's end.