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Conference comparisons one more time.........

Gator

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I've tried this before and muddled it up so that few could follow. Let me take it slowly. According to the Massey Composite College Football Ranking Composite , the team rankings in the B1G are
1 Michigan
2 Ohio State
3 Penn State
4 Minnesota
5 Illinois
6 Iowa
7 Maryland
8 Purdue
9 Wisconsin
10 Michigan State
11 Indiana
12 Nebraska
13 Rutgers
14 Northwestern

The ranking in the SEC are
1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Tennessee
4 Louisiana State
5 Mississippi State
6 Mississippi
7 South Carolina
8 Arkansas
9 Kentucky
10 Florida
11 Auburn
12 Missouri
13 Texas A&M
14 Vanderbilt

The B1G and the SEC played 5 games:
Iowa(6) VS Kentucky (9) EXPECTATION Iowa Win
Penn State (3) VS Auburn (11) EXPECTATION PSU Win
Ohio State (2) VS Georgia (1) EXPECTATION UGa Win
Purdue (8) VS Louisiana State (4) EXPECTATION LSU Win
Illinois (5) VS Mississippi State (5) EXPECTATION TIE

Thus the expectation is the B1G should be 2-2-1 VS the SEC.
The actual outcome was 2-3. Every games went as predicted except the last one as someone HAD to win and it turned out to be MSU. Thus based on these five games there isn't much difference between thew B1G an the SEC. Clear?
 

Gator

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The Big 12 has only 10 members and the Massey Composite rankings are
(1) Texas Chriatian
(2) Kansas State
(3) Texas
(4) Texas Tech
(5) Oklahoma
(6) Baylor
(7) Oklahoma State
(8) Kansas
(9) West Virginia
(10) Iowa State

But it's not really fair to the Big 12 to say that the worst team in the Big 12 is equal to 10th best in the B1G after all the P5 conferences are supposed to to equal in talent and distribution. Thus the 10 teams need to be re-ranked on the basis of 14 teams.
Here are the new rankings
1 Texas Christian (1)
2.444 Kansas State rounded to (2)
3.889 Texas rounded to (4)
5.333 Texas Tech rounded to (5)
6.778 Oklahoma rounded to (7)
8.222 Baylor rounded to (8)
9.667 Oklahoma State rounded to (10)
11.111 Kansas rounded to (11)
12.556 West Virginia rounded to (13)
14 Iowa State 14

The B1G played four games VS the Big 12.
Wisconsin (9) VS Oklahoma State (10) EXPECTATION UW Win
Iowa (6) VS Iowa State (14) EXPECTATION Iowa Win
Nebraska (12) VS Oklahoma (7) EXPECTATION NU Loss
Michigan (1) VS Texas Christian (1) EXPECTATION UW Tie

Thus the B1G was expected to be 2-1-1 vs the Big 12 but finished 1-3 or the B1G underperformed vs the Big 12 by losing 1.5 games more than expected. Note that "re-ranking" only change the expectation for the Wisconsin game that the B1G won anyway.
 

Duckboy33

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Rankings organized by Conference:

ACC:
1. Clemson (10th nationally)
2. Florida State (15th nationally)
3. Louisville (21st nationally)
4. Pittsburgh (26th nationally)
5. Wake Forest (32nd nationally)
6. NC State (36th nationally)
7. North Carolina (38th nationally)
8. Duke (40th nationally)
9. Syracuse (50th nationally)
10. Georgia Tech (75th nationally)
11. Miami FL (83rd nationally)
12. Virginia (97th nationally)
13. Virginia Tech (105th nationally)
14. Boston College (106th nationally)

Big 12:
1. TCU (6th nationally)
2. Kansas State (8th nationally)
3. Texas (17th nationally)
4. Texas Tech (24th nationally)
5. Oklahoma (44th nationally)
6. Baylor (51st nationally)
7. Oklahoma State (52nd nationally)
8. Kansas (56th nationally)
9. West Virginia (66th nationally)
10. Iowa State (67th nationally)

Big Ten:
1. Michigan (2nd nationally)
2. Ohio State (3rd nationally)
3. Penn State (7th nationally)
4. Minnesota (25th nationally)
5. Illinois (28th nationally)
6. Iowa (30th nationally)
7. Maryland (31st nationally)
8. Purdue (45th nationally)
9. Wisconsin (47th nationally)
10. Michigan State (64th nationally)
11. Indiana (81st nationally)
12. Nebraska (85th nationally)
13. Rutgers (100th nationally)
14. Northwestern (114th nationally)

PAC 12:
1. Utah (11th nationally)
2. Oregon (12th nationally)
3 USC (13th nationally)
4. Washington (14th nationally)
5. Oregon State (16th nationally)
6. UCLA (22nd nationally)
7. Washington State (48th nationally)
8. Arizona (71st nationally)
9. California (79th nationally)
10. Stanford (93rd nationally)
11. Arizona State (95th nationally)
12. Colorado (118th nationally)

SEC:
1. Georgia (1st nationally)
2. Alabama (4th nationally)
3. Tennessee (5th nationally)
4. LSU (9th nationally)
5. Mississippi State (19th nationally)
6. Ole Miss (23rd nationally)
7. South Carolina (29th nationally)
8. Arkansas (33rd nationally)
9. Kentucky (37th nationally)
10. Florida (41st nationally)
11. Auburn (53rd nationally)
12. Missouri (58th nationally)
13. Texas A&M (63rd nationally)
14. Vanderbilt (72nd nationally)

Top 10 Independents/G5:
1. Tulane (18th nationally)
2. Notre Dame (20th nationally)
3. Troy (27th nationally)
4. UTSA (34th nationally)
5. Fresno State (35th nationally)
6. Cincinnati (39th nationally)
7. UCF (42nd nationally)
8. Air Force (43rd nationally)
9. Boise State (46th nationally)
10. JMU (49th nationally)
 

Gator

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Rankings organized by Conference:

ACC:
1. Clemson (10th nationally)
2. Florida State (15th nationally)
3. Louisville (21st nationally)
4. Pittsburgh (26th nationally)
5. Wake Forest (32nd nationally)
6. NC State (36th nationally)
7. North Carolina (38th nationally)
8. Duke (40th nationally)
9. Syracuse (50th nationally)
10. Georgia Tech (75th nationally)
11. Miami FL (83rd nationally)
12. Virginia (97th nationally)
13. Virginia Tech (105th nationally)
14. Boston College (106th nationally)

Big 12:
1. TCU (6th nationally)
2. Kansas State (8th nationally)
3. Texas (17th nationally)
4. Texas Tech (24th nationally)
5. Oklahoma (44th nationally)
6. Baylor (51st nationally)
7. Oklahoma State (52nd nationally)
8. Kansas (56th nationally)
9. West Virginia (66th nationally)
10. Iowa State (67th nationally)

Big Ten:
1. Michigan (2nd nationally)
2. Ohio State (3rd nationally)
3. Penn State (7th nationally)
4. Minnesota (25th nationally)
5. Illinois (28th nationally)
6. Iowa (30th nationally)
7. Maryland (31st nationally)
8. Purdue (45th nationally)
9. Wisconsin (47th nationally)
10. Michigan State (64th nationally)
11. Indiana (81st nationally)
12. Nebraska (85th nationally)
13. Rutgers (100th nationally)
14. Northwestern (114th nationally)

PAC 12:
1. Utah (11th nationally)
2. Oregon (12th nationally)
3 USC (13th nationally)
4. Washington (14th nationally)
5. Oregon State (16th nationally)
6. UCLA (22nd nationally)
7. Washington State (48th nationally)
8. Arizona (71st nationally)
9. California (79th nationally)
10. Stanford (93rd nationally)
11. Arizona State (95th nationally)
12. Colorado (118th nationally)

SEC:
1. Georgia (1st nationally)
2. Alabama (4th nationally)
3. Tennessee (5th nationally)
4. LSU (9th nationally)
5. Mississippi State (19th nationally)
6. Ole Miss (23rd nationally)
7. South Carolina (29th nationally)
8. Arkansas (33rd nationally)
9. Kentucky (37th nationally)
10. Florida (41st nationally)
11. Auburn (53rd nationally)
12. Missouri (58th nationally)
13. Texas A&M (63rd nationally)
14. Vanderbilt (72nd nationally)

Top 10 Independents/G5:
1. Tulane (18th nationally)
2. Notre Dame (20th nationally)
3. Troy (27th nationally)
4. UTSA (34th nationally)
5. Fresno State (35th nationally)
6. Cincinnati (39th nationally)
7. UCF (42nd nationally)
8. Air Force (43rd nationally)
9. Boise State (46th nationally)
10. JMU (49th nationally)
Sometimes I wonder what these rankings are based on. PAC ended up with 6 teams ranked in the top 30 The 6 PAC ranked teams played a total of FOUR P5 opponents during the regular season and FIVE in the Bowl season. During the regular season: #11 ranked Utah, lost to 6-7 Florida; the #12 ranked Oregon, lost to #1 Georgia 49-3; the #13 ranked USC beat #20 ND; the #14 rated Washington beat 5-7 #64 Michigan State; the #16 ranked Oregon State played no P5 teams; and the #22 ranked UCLA played no P5 teams. In the bowls games, #11 ranked Utah lost to #3 PSU; #12 ranked Oregon beat #38 North Carolina by 1 point; #13 ranked USC lost to #19 Tulane; #14 ranked Washington beat #17 Texas; the #16 ranked Oregon State beat 6-7 Florida; and the #22 ranked UCLA lost #26 Pitt. Both Pitt and UCLA ended up 9-4 but UCLA finished #22 while Pitt ended up outside the top 25. These 6 PAC teams played a total of 5 P5 opponents ranked in the top 30 winning twice.

Compare this to the 7 SEC teams that ended up in the Massey top 30. Each of those 7 SEC teams played at least one P5 opponent in the regular season and each of the 7 played at least one P5 team in the bowl season. Those 7 teams played a total of 12 opponents in the Massey Top 30. beating 9 of them.
 

Duckboy33

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Sometimes I wonder what these rankings are based on. PAC ended up with 6 teams ranked in the top 30 The 6 PAC ranked teams played a total of FOUR P5 opponents during the regular season and FIVE in the Bowl season. During the regular season: #11 ranked Utah, lost to 6-7 Florida; the #12 ranked Oregon, lost to #1 Georgia 49-3; the #13 ranked USC beat #20 ND; the #14 rated Washington beat 5-7 #64 Michigan State; the #16 ranked Oregon State played no P5 teams; and the #22 ranked UCLA played no P5 teams. In the bowls games, #11 ranked Utah lost to #3 PSU; #12 ranked Oregon beat #38 North Carolina by 1 point; #13 ranked USC lost to #19 Tulane; #14 ranked Washington beat #17 Texas; the #16 ranked Oregon State beat 6-7 Florida; and the #22 ranked UCLA lost #26 Pitt. Both Pitt and UCLA ended up 9-4 but UCLA finished #22 while Pitt ended up outside the top 25. These 6 PAC teams played a total of 5 P5 opponents ranked in the top 30 winning twice.

Compare this to the 7 SEC teams that ended up in the Massey top 30. Each of those 7 SEC teams played at least one P5 opponent in the regular season and each of the 7 played at least one P5 team in the bowl season. Those 7 teams played a total of 12 opponents in the Massey Top 30. beating 9 of them.

I don't think these rankings put more weight on a game because it's an OOC game. One thing to remember is PAC schools play 9 conference games while SEC teams play 8. So when you're looking at games vs. P5 opponents, the SEC has more OOC opportunities to play P5 teams. If you look at a team like Oregon. They played Georgia and BYU (Big 12 next year) in their OOC. That means 11/12 games were against P5 opponents. They don't have 3 low level opponents on their schedule to boost their record like many teams.
 

Gator

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I don't think these rankings put more weight on a game because it's an OOC game. One thing to remember is PAC schools play 9 conference games while SEC teams play 8. So when you're looking at games vs. P5 opponents, the SEC has more OOC opportunities to play P5 teams. If you look at a team like Oregon. They played Georgia and BYU (Big 12 next year) in their OOC. That means 11/12 games were against P5 opponents. They don't have 3 low level opponents on their schedule to boost their record like many teams.
The PAC plays 54 games among themselves plus one CCG with the purpose of sorting out the 12 PAC teams. The SEC and ACC play 56 games plus one CCG game to sort out their 14 members. The B1G plays 63 games plus one CCG to sort out their 14 members while the Big 12 plays 45 games plus one CCG to sort out their 10 members. How do the conferences rank against each other? Are ALL 12 PAC teams better than ALL 14 SEC teams? The only way to tell is through OOC games. The PAC and SEC played 112 In-conferences & CC games but only 4 between the PAC and the SEC and 2 of those were bowl games!

The only info the CFP Committee had BEFORE the Bowls was:
Utah (PAC #1) Massey #11 VS Florida (SEC #10) Massey #41 Result L 26 - 29
Oregon (PAC #2) Massey #12 VS Georgia (SEC #1) Massey #1 Result L 3 - 49

After the Bowls they had:
Oregon State (PAC #6) Massey #16 VS Florida (SEC #10) Massey #41 Result W 30 - 3 Bowl
Arizona (PAC #9) Massey #71 VS Mississippi State (SEC #5) Massey #19 Result L 17 - 39 Bowl

Conclusions?
 

fknhippie

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Now we know what you do in your free time.
 

Duckboy33

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The PAC plays 54 games among themselves plus one CCG with the purpose of sorting out the 12 PAC teams. The SEC and ACC play 56 games plus one CCG game to sort out their 14 members. The B1G plays 63 games plus one CCG to sort out their 14 members while the Big 12 plays 45 games plus one CCG to sort out their 10 members. How do the conferences rank against each other? Are ALL 12 PAC teams better than ALL 14 SEC teams? The only way to tell is through OOC games. The PAC and SEC played 112 In-conferences & CC games but only 4 between the PAC and the SEC and 2 of those were bowl games!

The only info the CFP Committee had BEFORE the Bowls was:
Utah (PAC #1) Massey #11 VS Florida (SEC #10) Massey #41 Result L 26 - 29
Oregon (PAC #2) Massey #12 VS Georgia (SEC #1) Massey #1 Result L 3 - 49

After the Bowls they had:
Oregon State (PAC #6) Massey #16 VS Florida (SEC #10) Massey #41 Result W 30 - 3 Bowl
Arizona (PAC #9) Massey #71 VS Mississippi State (SEC #5) Massey #19 Result L 17 - 39 Bowl

Conclusions?

1) Arizona and Miss State wasn't a bowl game.

2) I don't think anyone (including Massey) was arguing the PAC was better than the SEC. But you pointed out the obvious. Of all the games being played, only a few are meaningful OOC games. These rankings systems and the ones Vegas use aren't going to pick 3 or 4 games and start drastically changing rankings of an entire conference. It's just not enough data to justify that. There's a reason Vegas is very successful using these models; they know what they're talking about.
 

Gator

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I don't think these rankings put more weight on a game because it's an OOC game. One thing to remember is PAC schools play 9 conference games while SEC teams play 8. So when you're looking at games vs. P5 opponents, the SEC has more OOC opportunities to play P5 teams. If you look at a team like Oregon. They played Georgia and BYU (Big 12 next year) in their OOC. That means 11/12 games were against P5 opponents. They don't have 3 low level opponents on their schedule to boost their record like many teams.
I understand that.
1) Arizona and Miss State wasn't a bowl game.

2) I don't think anyone (including Massey) was arguing the PAC was better than the SEC. But you pointed out the obvious. Of all the games being played, only a few are meaningful OOC games. These rankings systems and the ones Vegas use aren't going to pick 3 or 4 games and start drastically changing rankings of an entire conference. It's just not enough data to justify that. There's a reason Vegas is very successful using these models; they know what they're talking about.
YES!!!! There needs to be MORE OOC games!! The PAC is diminishing itself and to a degree college football by playing too many IN-conference games. How??

Diminishing the PAC
Let's assume ALL P5 conferences ARE alike. The average conference ranking would be 7.5 out of a 14 team conference and therefore the average ranking of a teams conference opponents must be 7.5. However, that doesn't mean every team will average that. The #1 conference team can't play itself but only teams 2-14 (an average of 8 not 7.5). Conversely, the #14 team can't play itself but only teams 1-13 (an average of 7 not 7.5). In OOC games the PAC #1 CAN play teams 1-14 from other conferences (an average of 7.5). So randomly playing a P5 team OOC would lead to an INCREASED SOS for the top teams. However, teams don't "randomly" schedule OOC games. The average OOC opponent played by PAC teams this year was 5.45 not 7.5. So dumping an #8 in-conference opponent for a #5.5 P5 OOC team leads to a significant "bump" in SOS which helps the whole conference.

Diminishing CF
As mentioned, too few games are played (and even fewer meaningful ones). This makes it harder to distinguish the better teams. There are 64 P5 conference teams, IF each played 2 P5 OOC teams that would generate 64 P5-P5 games (since they are playing each other each game is being counted twice, hence the need to divide by 2). If each of the 64 P5 teams played one G5 OOC games then there would be 64 P5-P5 OOC games and 64 P5-G5 OOc games. In 2022 there were only 38 P5-P5 OOC games in the regular season. Of those 38 games only 21 of them involved teams that were within 5 conference rankings of each other( e.g., #1 vs #6)! There were 101 P5-G5 games in the regular season. There were 54 P5- non FBS games. For the sake of college football, each team needs to play 8 conference games, 2 P5 OOC teams, and 1 G5 OOC team. This leaves one game for each team to do with it as it deems fit ( use it to improve their SOS, schedule a patsy, take the week off! ONLY don't complain when you are left out of the playoffs!).
 
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