Chances That Anybody But.... Wins the 2021 Natty

[cclxxxvdicere]

As explained before, the "rarely more than 4 to 6 teams deserve to get in" was caused by limiting the access. Why go to Michigan? Why go to Texas? Why go to Auburn? They're not finishing in the top 4 unlike Bama, Clemson, & OSU, recruits see this and it is showing. Expansion to 8, 12, and 16 is just for the better of the sport, it doesn't matter if only 4 teams have a shot, you're still guaranteed to have multiple games worth watching except the unwatchable mess we have now. I'm perfect at 12, but then again 12 is a minimum for me for this to be worthy of being called a playoff.

4 teams were not the best option for reasons already explained. The Top 2 and 3 teams were never obvious hence the introduction of the playoff system due to messes in 2007 & 2011, and the difficulty of finding #4 makes it all the more worse. Every year there is controversy. Every. Year. There has not been a definitive ranking and we're practically punishing teams for losing just one game, and in some cases the fact they went undefeated on a schedule they set up years before that season. It's a ridiculously unfair system with a clear bias, not to mention player development doesn't equate to guaranteed victory as this is CFB, where upsets can happen on a constant basis. I do not see why this is a debate if I'm being honest.

This isn't a counter to what I said.

That's dumb arguing, firstly you should understand what figurative language is, and being only three percent more is within standard MOE, so once again, not a counter. Of the 28 total appearances, 78.5% comprised of teams who made multiple appearances. It's time for expansion.

You think that letting a bunch of 2 and 3 loss teams in the playoff so they can get their asses handed to them by the elite teams that are making the 4 team playoff year after year is going to get elite players to go to the teams who got their asses handed to them instead of the teams that handed them their asses?

That’s asinine.

Michigan, Penn State, Texas, and Auburn have all been getting highly ranked recruiting classes without making the playoff, and they won’t get any better recruits just because they get in the playoff with 2 or 3 losses.

The playoff is going to be expanded, because every year one or more of the P5 conferences is left out. I don’t think it should, even though it would ensure that Alabama is in the playoff for the foreseeable future, but they’re going to make it so the P5 champs get auto bids, and have 3 at large bids so Alabama and Ohio State get in even if they don’t win their championship.

This is all about the Benjamins, which is the same reason the conference championship games aren’t going away and why they won’t be reducing the regular season to make room for more playoff games.

 

[cwalke3408]

As long as you limit the possibilities for teams competing for a Title, then the top recruits will go to the ones who actually have the possibility. Yeah sure Alabama would still dominate for a few more seasons but get some more, new faces in there and if they become perennial in their own right then you'll see more recruits go there until you achieve some sort of balance in the sport.

65+ P5 teams already have a fair shot at winning the title. What's adding a few playoffs spots going to change players from going to a team like Bama

 

[cwalke3408]

The only teams I can see benefiting are teams like Cincinnati, UCF and that's about it. Top tier G5 teams will have a better chance at swinging some 3*/4* players from lower P5 teams but good luck believing top players are going to stop going to teams with the best facuilties, coaching staffs and proven path to the NFL

 

[Boglodyte]

I think Ohio State takes a step backwards this year!

I’m hoping that happens while they are standing on the rim at the Grand Canyon,


OTOH, as long as we have Jimmie, they could probably still beat us with their walk-ons

 

[fishinabarrel]

I think Ohio State takes a step backwards this year, although they likely will still make the playoffs. I'm not sure anyone in the B10 can hang with them right now. I think Clemson, and Alabama would beat them by double digits if they play. I'd probably favor Oklahoma and Georgia over them too, but those games would be pretty tight.

I'm looking forward to a normal college football season....hopefully the stands are filled too!

Ohio State's biggest question will be at LB. DBs should be better with experience and getting a couple back from injury the previous year. D-line will be about the same IMO.

Offense the passing game is going to be lights out even with a new starting QB. The line is going to be good and the receiving core is one of the best if not the best in the country. Running game is kind of a wild card, Master Teague will have needed to develop more or one of the young guns need to step up.

All in all, I don't think it's going to be as big a step back as you are hoping for

 

[BamaDude]

That's dumb arguing, firstly you should understand what figurative language is, and being only three percent more is within standard MOE, so once again, not a counter. Of the 28 total appearances, 78.5% comprised of teams who made multiple appearances. It's time for expansion.

So, you are saying that more teams should be awarded a "participation trophy," whether or not they have earned the right to be in the playoffs.

 

[BamaDude]

Ohio State's biggest question will be at LB. DBs should be better with experience and getting a couple back from injury the previous year. D-line will be about the same IMO.

Offense the passing game is going to be lights out even with a new starting QB. The line is going to be good and the receiving core is one of the best if not the best in the country. Running game is kind of a wild card, Master Teague will have needed to develop more or one of the young guns need to step up.

All in all, I don't think it's going to be as big a step back as you are hoping for

I think Alabama, Ohio St. & Clemson may all take a step back this year, but they are so much better than the bulk of their competition, at least two of the three could still make the playoffs.

 

[fishinabarrel]

I think Alabama, Ohio St. & Clemson may all take a step back this year, but they are so much better than the bulk of their competition, at least two of the three could still make the playoffs.

I agree. The talent gap is kind of extreme right now

 

[lilchi721]

Texas A&M

 

[We Are Decent]

You think that letting a bunch of 2 and 3 loss teams in the playoff so they can get their asses handed to them by the elite teams that are making the 4 team playoff year after year is going to get elite players to go to the teams who got their asses handed to them instead of the teams that handed them their asses?

That’s asinine.

We're literally seeing a version of it now. LSU was being beaten for multiple years in the CFP era except for one time and it's paying off. What's asinine is seeing a five star choose to go to a school who "hands others their asses" in which he'll likely see less playtime than he would with teams "who get their asses handed to them"

Michigan, Penn State, Texas, and Auburn have all been getting highly ranked recruiting classes without making the playoff, and they won’t get any better recruits just because they get in the playoff with 2 or 3 losses.

Funny how you mention those teams since when they did their best they received boosts in recruitment following after. What I've said has been consistent for a lot of examples bud when it comes to recruitment.

The playoff is going to be expanded, because every year one or more of the P5 conferences is left out. I don’t think it should, even though it would ensure that Alabama is in the playoff for the foreseeable future, but they’re going to make it so the P5 champs get auto bids, and have 3 at large bids so Alabama and Ohio State get in even if they don’t win their championship.

I doubt they'll make P5 get an auto-bid, if they do then might as well create I-A, I-AA, & I-AAA, instead of pretending as if the second half of I-A matters.

This is all about the Benjamins

Lol, the larger the expansion the more Benjamins they'll get.

which is the same reason the conference championship games aren’t going away and why they won’t be reducing the regular season to make room for more playoff games.

Oh no, they'll definitely do that if they could since Conference championships don't mean as much as you think they do, as well the regular season can always start a week earlier if it can.

 

[We Are Decent]

65+ P5 teams already have a fair shot at winning the title. What's adding a few playoffs spots going to change players from going to a team like Bama

Pretty much already explained. Backup or starter? Your choice.

 

[We Are Decent]

So, you are saying that more teams should be awarded a "participation trophy," whether or not they have earned the right to be in the playoffs.

Lmao what? Did you not comprehend my post?

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

We're literally seeing a version of it now. LSU was being beaten for multiple years in the CFP era except for one time and it's paying off. What's asinine is seeing a five star choose to go to a school who "hands others their asses" in which he'll likely see less playtime than he would with teams "who get their asses handed to them"

Funny how you mention those teams since when they did their best they received boosts in recruitment following after. What I've said has been consistent for a lot of examples bud when it comes to recruitment.

I doubt they'll make P5 get an auto-bid, if they do then might as well create I-A, I-AA, & I-AAA, instead of pretending as if the second half of I-A matters.

Lol, the larger the expansion the more Benjamins they'll get.

Oh no, they'll definitely do that if they could since Conference championships don't mean as much as you think they do, as well the regular season can always start a week earlier if it can.

You have no idea what you’re talking about. LSU had 3 top 10 recruiting classes, including a #2, 5, and 7, in the 4 years prior to their 2019 championship season, and they hadn’t sniffed the playoff in any of those prior years. They’ve been reeling in top classes for years, regardless of whether they’ve been in the championship hunt or not.

It’s not asinine for elite players to choose the schools that give them the best chance to get into the NFL and win championships, even if, and probably because, they have to compete against other elite prospects. If they’re scared to compete, we don’t want them. It certainly hasn’t stopped them from going to Alabama.

Of those 4 teams, only Auburn has made the playoff, Texas and Michigan have been getting better classes than Auburn, and it hasn’t been because they made the playoff, they haven’t been close.

The playoff is a creation of the P5 conferences, when it expands they’ll make sure all the P5s are included. Count on it.

Funny, back in 2011, when all this playoff expansion started, people complained that Alabama got in the BCSCG without winning their conference, and that conference championships had to mean something. Then, when Ohio State was about to get left out of the playoff, ironically because Penn State won the B10 that year, all of the sudden conference championships weren’t that important anymore. Maybe, just maybe, they could make conference championships meaningful if they ensure the conference champions are rewarded for winning them.

The issue isn’t when to start playing games, the issue is too damn many games. You can’t just keep making the season longer and longer; in 2013 you could win a national championship playing 13 or 14 games, and now you people want to make it 16 or 17. It’s not your bodies and careers on the line, it’s easy for you to say it’s just another couple of games. They don’t owe it to you to play as many games as you think is necessary to get a “true” champion.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

Ohio State's biggest question will be at LB. DBs should be better with experience and getting a couple back from injury the previous year. D-line will be about the same IMO.

Offense the passing game is going to be lights out even with a new starting QB. The line is going to be good and the receiving core is one of the best if not the best in the country. Running game is kind of a wild card, Master Teague will have needed to develop more or one of the young guns need to step up.

All in all, I don't think it's going to be as big a step back as you are hoping for

Ohio State’s “steps back” still have them several steps ahead of all but a few teams.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

You have no idea what you’re talking about. LSU had 3 top 10 recruiting classes, including a #2, 5, and 7, in the 4 years prior to their 2019 championship season, and they hadn’t sniffed the playoff in any of those prior years. They’ve been reeling in top classes for years, regardless of whether they’ve been in the championship hunt or not.

It’s not asinine for elite players to choose the schools that give them the best chance to get into the NFL and win championships, even if, and probably because, they have to compete against other elite prospects. If they’re scared to compete, we don’t want them. It certainly hasn’t stopped them from going to Alabama.

Of those 4 teams, only Auburn has made the playoff, Texas and Michigan have been getting better classes than Auburn, and it hasn’t been because they made the playoff, they haven’t been close.

The playoff is a creation of the P5 conferences, when it expands they’ll make sure all the P5s are included. Count on it.

Funny, back in 2011, when all this playoff expansion started, people complained that Alabama got in the BCSCG without winning their conference, and that conference championships had to mean something. Then, when Ohio State was about to get left out of the playoff, ironically because Penn State won the B10 that year, all of the sudden conference championships weren’t that important anymore. Maybe, just maybe, they could make conference championships meaningful if they ensure the conference champions are rewarded for winning them.

The issue isn’t when to start playing games, the issue is too damn many games. You can’t just keep making the season longer and longer; in 2013 you could win a national championship playing 13 or 14 games, and now you people want to make it 16 or 17. It’s not your bodies and careers on the line, it’s easy for you to say it’s just another couple of games. They don’t owe it to you to play as many games as you think is necessary to get a “true” champion.

Conference championships didn’t matter in 01 or 03, either.

In any event, players go to Bama for the reasons you cite. And the whole culture/“players don’t care about the program, just there to get draft spots” has proven to be bogus. Guys like Najee and DeVonta stayed an extra year because they wanted another title. Waddle played hurt, and Dickerson defied his own injury for the team. All of that says a lot more than the twaddle “journalists” peddle about the program.

 

[OUGuy1999]

In reality, there is a good point being made about recruiting being tied directly to the CFP being just 4 teams. Just look at the PAC for example. The PAC has usually had at least 2 teams every year that would contend for a BCS championship spot, not saying they made it but they always had a few contenders till the end of the year. Since the CFP the PAC has not been able to amount to much except for the very first year with Oregon and the 3rd year with Washington. Other than those two the PAC hasn't even been able to recruit enough talent to even contend. The 2021 recruiting class was the first year to have 2 PAC teams make the top 10 in recruiting since 2012. I know the PAC has never been very dominant but if you look back at the PAC alone you can see where they fell off the map, right around the time of the CFP coming into talks.

Another example, look at specific teams within conferences. Take Oklahoma State for example. They started getting good recruiting ratings and was starting to be a headache in the Big12 between 2010 and 2017. But as the CFP started and Oklahoma was beating them out for the top spot, they couldn't get any more big recruits to continue to contend with Oklahoma. So now they are kind of back in middle of the road where they were before.

I'm not saying that the limited CFP is the only thing to blame for lack of contenders for the CFP, but you can definitely see a correlation between the two. I personally think expanding to 8 teams would definitely benefit the CFP and College Football as a whole, more than that would be to much. But to say that the limited CFP does not effect how specific teams manage to get top recruiting classes each and every year is just being obtuse about it.

To the original posting question, I think North Carolina smacks the ACC in the mouth this year and shows up as a favorite to make the CFP.

 

[rmilia1]

CFB is getting boring

They either need to expand the playoff or go back to 2. 4 is awful. It just guarantees the same teams make the playoff every single year because it ostensibly gives those teams a free loss.

The same would be true with 8 teams but at least we'd get new blood in there every year

 

[Wamu]

I think Ohio State takes a step backwards this year, although they likely will still make the playoffs. I'm not sure anyone in the B10 can hang with them right now. I think Clemson, and Alabama would beat them by double digits if they play. I'd probably favor Oklahoma and Georgia over them too, but those games would be pretty tight.

I'm looking forward to a normal college football season....hopefully the stands are filled too!

" I think Ohio State takes a step backwards this year"

You spelled hope wrong.

 

[Wamu]

Ohio State's biggest question will be at LB. DBs should be better with experience and getting a couple back from injury the previous year. D-line will be about the same IMO.

Offense the passing game is going to be lights out even with a new starting QB. The line is going to be good and the receiving core is one of the best if not the best in the country. Running game is kind of a wild card, Master Teague will have needed to develop more or one of the young guns need to step up.

All in all, I don't think it's going to be as big a step back as you are hoping for

The biggest unknown for the Buckeyes is QB. This is the first season since the early 50's that Ohio State will start a season with QB's on the roster that have no game experience at all.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

CFB is getting boring

They either need to expand the playoff or go back to 2. 4 is awful. It just guarantees the same teams make the playoff every single year because it ostensibly gives those teams a free loss.

The same would be true with 8 teams but at least we'd get new blood in there every year

In the last 8 years of the BCS, you had 10 programs reach the title game, 5 of which did do multiple times. 5 different programs won titles. In the first 7 years of the CFP, 11 different programs have reached the semis, with 6 reaching the final. 5 reached the CFP multiple times, and 3 did so in the finals. 4 different programs have won the title.

I’m not seeing going back to 2 as a means of adding “variety”.