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CFP + New Year's 6 Bowl Projections (Post Week 9)

michaeljordan_fan

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Peach Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) LSU
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl: UGA vs. Cincy
Orange Bowl: Auburn vs. Wake Forest
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma

Reminder of the Tie-Ins
Rose: BigTen vs. PAC-12
Sugar: SEC vs. BigXII
Orange: ACC vs. BigTen OR SEC OR Notre Dame
Cotton: no tie-in

Every year the G5 team is forced to go to the Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. Since the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinals, that means they are going to the Cotton.


What happened this week:
Oklahoma threw a major wrench into the projections this week. They certainly could run the table the rest of the way and get into the CFP, but not if the same team shows up as yesterday.

Oregon escaped with a win vs. WSU. Given some of the upcoming opponents, it's difficult to see the Ducks running the table.

This opens things up nicely for the SEC, who now is projected to have 2 teams in the CFP.

Notre Dame got bitchslapped by Michigan. Certainly it is feasible for Notre Dame to drop another game this season, knocking them out of the NY6 picture.

This opens things up in the Orange Bowl. The ACC continues to look like utter garbage after Clemson, but someone in the ACC will have to be selected to the Orange Bowl, even if none are ranked. But who will the ACC opponent play?

As we can see above, the ACC rep has to play a BigTen or Notre Dame or an SEC team. I think it will be very close between a BigTen team (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota) or Auburn, but ultimately Auburn takes it.

As always, feel free to comment on the above projections, or better yet...post your own.
 

ericd7633

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Peach Bowl: #1. Ohio State vs. #4. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: #2. Alabama vs. #3. Clemson

Cotton Bowl: UGA vs. Appalachian State
Orange Bowl: Michigan vs. Louisville
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
 

michaeljordan_fan

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Peach Bowl: #1. Ohio State vs. #4. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: #2. Alabama vs. #3. Clemson

Cotton Bowl: UGA vs. Appalachian State
Orange Bowl: Michigan vs. Louisville
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma

The one quibble I would have with your picks is I doubt they make Ohio State play in a hostile venue against LSU.

From the CFP website:

"When assigning teams to sites, the committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home‐crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed."
 

ericd7633

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The one quibble I would have with your picks is I doubt they make Ohio State play in a hostile venue against LSU.

From the CFP website:

"When assigning teams to sites, the committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home‐crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed."

I would assume more buckeye fans would rather travel to Atlanta than Phoenix. Either location is closer to Baton Rouge, but Columbus is alot closer to Atlanta than Phoenix.
 

michaeljordan_fan

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I would assume more buckeye fans would rather travel to Atlanta than Phoenix. Either location is closer to Baton Rouge, but Columbus is alot closer to Atlanta than Phoenix.

Sure, but the home crowd disadvantage would be sizable.
 

ericd7633

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Sure, but the home crowd disadvantage would be sizable.

Maybe. It wasn't that big of a disadvantage in the Sugar Bowl against Bama in terms of split. It was almost a 50/50 split that game. Plus OSU fans will have no problem traveling. They'd be able to drive given the location.
 

michaeljordan_fan

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Maybe. It wasn't that big of a disadvantage in the Sugar Bowl against Bama in terms of split. It was almost a 50/50 split that game. Plus OSU fans will have no problem traveling. They'd be able to drive given the location.

You may be right. I suspect if it came down to that they would simply ask Ohio State which one they wanted.
 

fishinabarrel

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I would assume more buckeye fans would rather travel to Atlanta than Phoenix. Either location is closer to Baton Rouge, but Columbus is alot closer to Atlanta than Phoenix.

Dont know about Atlanta but you would be amazed at the local Buckeye rep in the Phoenix area. It's like a second home
 

Yo Tee

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Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: (2) LSU vs. (3) Alabama

Cotton Bowl: Utah vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Florida
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Baylor
 

michaeljordan_fan

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Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: (2) LSU vs. (3) Alabama

Cotton Bowl: Utah vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Florida
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Baylor

I like the Florida doubleheader!
 

Yo Tee

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Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: (2) LSU vs. (3) Alabama

Cotton Bowl: Utah vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Baylor

*reposted to fix the Florida doubleheader I had before :-)
 

The Crimson King

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Peach Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) LSU
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl: UGA vs. Cincy
Orange Bowl: Auburn vs. Wake Forest
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma

Reminder of the Tie-Ins
Rose: BigTen vs. PAC-12
Sugar: SEC vs. BigXII
Orange: ACC vs. BigTen OR SEC OR Notre Dame
Cotton: no tie-in

Every year the G5 team is forced to go to the Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. Since the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinals, that means they are going to the Cotton.


What happened this week:
Oklahoma threw a major wrench into the projections this week. They certainly could run the table the rest of the way and get into the CFP, but not if the same team shows up as yesterday.

Oregon escaped with a win vs. WSU. Given some of the upcoming opponents, it's difficult to see the Ducks running the table.

This opens things up nicely for the SEC, who now is projected to have 2 teams in the CFP.

Notre Dame got bitchslapped by Michigan. Certainly it is feasible for Notre Dame to drop another game this season, knocking them out of the NY6 picture.

This opens things up in the Orange Bowl. The ACC continues to look like utter garbage after Clemson, but someone in the ACC will have to be selected to the Orange Bowl, even if none are ranked. But who will the ACC opponent play?

As we can see above, the ACC rep has to play a BigTen or Notre Dame or an SEC team. I think it will be very close between a BigTen team (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota) or Auburn, but ultimately Auburn takes it.

As always, feel free to comment on the above projections, or better yet...post your own.
Orange would be nice at this point
 

Collegefbfan

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If that was the Orange Bowl match, UGA fans would outnumber Wake fans 5 to 1 if not more.
 
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Neither the SEC or the B10 is getting two teams in the CFP.
 
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