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CFP + New Year's 6 Bowl Projections (Post Week 14)

Discussion in 'College Football Forum' started by michaeljordan_fan, Dec 1, 2019 at 8:32 AM.

  1. michaeljordan_fan

    michaeljordan_fan Well-Known Member

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    Peach Bowl: (1) LSU vs. (4) Utah
    Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

    Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Cincy
    Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Virginia
    Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
    Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

    Reminder of the Tie-Ins
    Rose: BigTen vs. PAC-12
    Sugar: SEC vs. BigXII
    Orange: ACC vs. BigTen OR SEC OR Notre Dame
    Cotton: no tie-in

    Every year the G5 team is forced to go to the Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. Since the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinals, that means they are going to the Cotton.


    What happened this week:
    Alabama already needed a lot of help to make the playoff. With another loss, they are officially eliminated from CFP consideration, but will enjoy a tasty matchup in the Sugar Bowl, which figures to be the best NY6 matchup this year.

    Unless there is an upset in the SECCG, the final playoff spot will come down to Utah or Oklahoma. Utah had another dominant game, and appears unlikely to lose to Oregon based on both teams' trajectories. If they do emerge victorious next week, they will in all likelihood earn the 4th spot.

    It is possible that a Oklahoma blowout of Baylor coupled with a tight win for Utah over Oregon could be enough to sway committee members' minds, but that seems unlikely.

    The mystery of the ACC #2 team for the Orange Bowl has plagued the projections all year, as the league has been quite erratic (and frankly, garbage). That murkiness cleared this weekend as UVA all but guaranteed themselves a berth in the Orange Bowl, regardless of the ACCCG result.

    I currently have Florida slotted as the opponent, the OB could also select Notre Dame, but that is unlikely due to the rematch factor.

    As always, feel free to comment on the above projections, or better yet...post your own.
     



  2. Chewbaccer

    Chewbaccer Illustrious Potentate

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    Why would Bama go to the Sugar Bowl over UGA is we lose the SECCG?
     
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  3. michaeljordan_fan

    michaeljordan_fan Well-Known Member

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    Because Bama.
     
  4. Chewbaccer

    Chewbaccer Illustrious Potentate

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    And how is Cincy still your G5 NY6 representative?

    You they're gonna beat Memphis, Boise State's gonna lose to Hawaii AND App State is gonna lose to Louisiana?
     
  5. yourTEAMreallySUCKS

    yourTEAMreallySUCKS Sooner, Cock, Rise Up

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    This is a “pac12 over Big12” thread disguised with a lot of 12-year-old analysis.
     
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  6. Chewbaccer

    Chewbaccer Illustrious Potentate

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    Fiesta Bowl- (1) Ohio State vs (4) Utah
    Peach Bowl- (2) Clemson vs (3) Georgia

    Cotton Bowl- Alabama vs Memphis
    Orange Bowl- Florida vs Virginia
    Rose Bowl- Oregon vs Penn State
    Sugar Bowl- LSU vs Oklahoma
     
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  7. romeo212000

    romeo212000 Self-proclaimed Asshole

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    Oklahoma has a large advantage on paper over Utah when comparing bodies Of work. The committee might keep Utah in there if Oklahoma wins unimpressively over Baylor but otherwise I doubt it.
     
  8. Ron G

    Ron G Well-Known Member

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    Bama Beat Western Carolina , that's why.
     
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  9. Trench Mob

    Trench Mob Aloha bitches!

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    Peach Bowl: (1) LSU vs. (4) Georgia
    Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

    Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Memphis
    Orange Bowl: Florida vs. Virginia
    Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Penn State
    Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Baylor
     
  10. Trench Mob

    Trench Mob Aloha bitches!

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    Lol no way. LSU is in the playoff regardless of what happens.
     
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  11. Smart

    Smart Asshat

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    If Wisconsin loses, is there any spread where you think they take us over Penn State? For example, if we lose by less than 11 (their margin v. OSU), does the committee rank us over Penn State, or is that a lost cause at this point?

    As a separate point, it is absolutely ridiculous that Virginia gets a New Years Six Bowl over Baylor, Us, or Minnesota in this scenario. If the conference champ is in the playoff, I feel like there should be a cutoff rank where you lose that slot. 15 would probably be a fair cutoff, but even if that is too aggressive, surely no team ranked beneath #20 should get an auto NY6 bid when someone from their conference is already playing in a NY6 bowl.
     
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  12. Chewbaccer

    Chewbaccer Illustrious Potentate

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    The committee has never taken a one loss non conference champ over a one loss conference champ. Until they do, I won't pick them to.
     
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  13. Smart

    Smart Asshat

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    They've said before they would always pick the conference champ unless the non-conference champ's resume is substantially better. It may not have happened before, but it's virtually impossible to argue that Utah's resume is NOT clearly inferior to LSU's.

    There is no way LSU gets left out. The committee is praying Georgia beats LSU, because then the four teams and the order (OSU, Clemson, Georgia, LSU) would pretty much be a given and there would be no controversy.
     
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  14. romeo212000

    romeo212000 Self-proclaimed Asshole

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    You have absolutely nothing to substantiate this claim. What we do know is they have never done it and have repeatedly cited the importance of winning your CCG with all other things being equal. I’m siding with him until the committee deviates from what they’ve done from the start.
     
  15. Smart

    Smart Asshat

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    There is an argument to be made for actions versus words, but the committee chair has definitely said things that "substantiate the claim."

    Ultimately, though, all of this discussion will likely be moot. I think LSU will beat Georgia.
     
  16. romeo212000

    romeo212000 Self-proclaimed Asshole

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    I agree. Question will bow how they seed the top three and then the Oklahoma vs Utah conversation if both win next week.
     
  17. Mike30142

    Mike30142 Well-Known Member

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    If Georgia beats LSU, they both make the playoffs.
     
  18. 78Cyclones

    78Cyclones Well-Known Member

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    Georgia beat Murray State. Much more impressive! lol. Screw the Sugar. I want Alabama in the Citrus vs. Minnesota or Notre Dame - which I think are both possible if a B1G team (Penn State) goes to the Orange. Amirite?
     
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  19. ElTexan

    ElTexan Board Chancellor Emeritus

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    Utah isn’t going to the cfp over OU
     
  20. 78Cyclones

    78Cyclones Well-Known Member

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    I know, right!