Can Jacksonville continue off of 2025?

[Brees#1]

Honestly, Jacksonville has upside potential. Lawrence would be a winning QB with a better team than Jacksonville. Jacksonville won some big games, but they have disappointed every time. They have not made the playoffs consistently since their expansion years. They're in a competitive division as well. The Colts also beat the Broncos and Chargers. The Texans also beat the Chiefs and Chargers. The Texans beat the 49ers as well. Furthermore, the Jaguars were not the best team in the division. Those were the Colts.

So when I look at Jacksonville's schedule, it's interesting. Jacksonville's two best years were when they played the AFC North. They have swept the AFC North two times. They have also gone 0-4 twice. They have gone 1-3 all other times. Jacksonville also, when good, have owned the Steelers. They have gone back and forth with the Ravens. The team that has given them the most problems are the Browns. But Jacksonville has struggled against the NFC East. Since 2006, they have only beaten the Cowboys and Giants and never both in the same year. Houston can't get over .500 against the NFC and the Colts have seen their luck decrease in inter conference games, so there's no disadvantage in the division there against those teams(Titans are a different matter).

However, Jacksonville's schedule is tough starting out against the Browns, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, and Eagles. It's not easy to win two years in a row in Denver, even though Jacksonville is 4-1 there since before 2002, especially after playing the Browns pass rush. If the Jaguars get out of that 2-3, they'll get going. After the Eagles, they play the Texans, Colts at home, Ravens, Titans, Giants, and Titans. Texans will get the bad end of the London trip. The Jaguars should beat the Titans and Colts. Possibly they can beat the Titans twice, but in three weeks that's difficult, so ideally they have to win one against the Ravens or Giants.

If they can make it 6-5 by week 12, their remaining games are the Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Commanders, and Colts. They could win four of those to get to 10 wins. But Jacksonville, when tested like this before, have generally failed.

Jacksonville snapped losing skids to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Chiefs in 2025. They showed progress, so it will be interesting to see if they can shake off the Eagles, Commanders, and Browns.

I see Jacksonville between 7-10 wins.

 

[Hotel Security]

I didn't really buy their run last year.

 

[Xeliou66]

The Jags are intriguing - they definitely have some talent but a couple of question marks as well - their rushing game is a big question mark as they have no clear RB1 - they added in Chris Rodriguez who was okay with the Commanders but I’m not sure if he will take the next step to be RB1, same with second year guy Tuten. They’ll need those two to take the next step and be more productive but losing Etienne will hurt them IMO and it may put more on Lawrence’s shoulders. They do have a strong receiving unit with Meyers, Washington and Thomas so I think they’ll be able to move the ball but they could be rather one dimensional depending on the RB unit.

The D has some decent pieces - they do need Travon Walker to be more productive - it was a mistake to take him over Hutchinson at #1 in 2022 as Hutchinson is an elite edge rusher, but Walker had double digit sacks in 23-24 but only had 3.5 sacks last year. They are very thin at edge, no experienced guys besides Walker and Hines-Allen. The secondary looks in solid shape, and I’m interested to see what kind of impact Travis Hunter makes.

I think the Jags have a shot at getting back to the playoffs, but the rushing game is a big question mark, they have no proven RB1 and Etienne ran for over 1100 yards last season and his production will likely be missed.

 

[Clayton]

They look to be the best passing team in their division and they might have a top 15 defense. Usually a sign of a playoff team.

They have issues with drops, at RB, and at LB. Usually RB and LB dont matter a ton for long-term projections but they might match up poorly with Houston and Indy.

 

[Southieinnc]

Honestly, Jacksonville has upside potential. Lawrence would be a winning QB with a better team than Jacksonville. Jacksonville won some big games, but they have disappointed every time. They have not made the playoffs consistently since their expansion years. They're in a competitive division as well. The Colts also beat the Broncos and Chargers. The Texans also beat the Chiefs and Chargers. The Texans beat the 49ers as well. Furthermore, the Jaguars were not the best team in the division. Those were the Colts.

So when I look at Jacksonville's schedule, it's interesting. Jacksonville's two best years were when they played the AFC North. They have swept the AFC North two times. They have also gone 0-4 twice. They have gone 1-3 all other times. Jacksonville also, when good, have owned the Steelers. They have gone back and forth with the Ravens. The team that has given them the most problems are the Browns. But Jacksonville has struggled against the NFC East. Since 2006, they have only beaten the Cowboys and Giants and never both in the same year. Houston can't get over .500 against the NFC and the Colts have seen their luck decrease in inter conference games, so there's no disadvantage in the division there against those teams(Titans are a different matter).

However, Jacksonville's schedule is tough starting out against the Browns, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, and Eagles. It's not easy to win two years in a row in Denver, even though Jacksonville is 4-1 there since before 2002, especially after playing the Browns pass rush. If the Jaguars get out of that 2-3, they'll get going. After the Eagles, they play the Texans, Colts at home, Ravens, Titans, Giants, and Titans. Texans will get the bad end of the London trip. The Jaguars should beat the Titans and Colts. Possibly they can beat the Titans twice, but in three weeks that's difficult, so ideally they have to win one against the Ravens or Giants.

If they can make it 6-5 by week 12, their remaining games are the Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Commanders, and Colts. They could win four of those to get to 10 wins. But Jacksonville, when tested like this before, have generally failed.

Jacksonville snapped losing skids to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Chiefs in 2025. They showed progress, so it will be interesting to see if they can shake off the Eagles, Commanders, and Browns.

I see Jacksonville between 7-10 wins.

Yes, if they play well.
No if they don't.

 

[Xeliou66]

They look to be the best passing team in their division and they might have a top 15 defense. Usually a sign of a playoff team.

They have issues with drops, at RB, and at LB. Usually RB and LB dont matter a ton for long-term projections but they might match up poorly with Houston and Indy.

The Jags defensive front 7 looks rather thin - like I say they have no edge rushers other than Hines-Allen/Walker, and LB is kind of iffy outside of Oluokun. But RB is definitely the biggest concern, like I say I’m not sure Tuten or Rodriguez has what it takes to be RB1, and the shaky rushing game could put a lot of pressure on Lawrence.
They do look like the best passing team in the AFC South.

 

[Clayton]

The Jags defensive front 7 looks rather thin - like I say they have no edge rushers other than Hines-Allen/Walker, and LB is kind of iffy outside of Oluokun. But RB is definitely the biggest concern, like I say I’m not sure Tuten or Rodriguez has what it takes to be RB1, and the shaky rushing game could put a lot of pressure on Lawrence.
They do look like the best passing team in the AFC South.

About four or five years ago I'd shrug off the front 7 issues or the RB issues because they can pass the ball and had a pretty good D last year but the league is really physical right now.

I do think they're the most stable looking team in the AFC South because of the passing attack. Just not sure if luck swings the Colts or Texans way that the Jags would be physical enough to hold them off. On paper the Jags have the third best roster in the AFCS

 

[PDay8810]

Yes, if they punt well.
No if they don't.

I support this opinion.

 

[Xeliou66]

About four or five years ago I'd shrug off the front 7 issues or the RB issues because they can pass the ball and had a pretty good D last year but the league is really physical right now.

I do think they're the most stable looking team in the AFC South because of the passing attack. Just not sure if luck swings the Colts or Texans way that the Jags would be physical enough to hold them off. On paper the Jags have the third best roster in the AFCS

I think the Texans are the favorites in the AFC South because of their stellar D. Stroud has had some struggles but if he goes back to playing similarly to his rookie season, watch out for the Texans. The Colts are interesting, they have a great RB in Taylor and some good receiving weapons but a lot depends on if Jones can bounce back from his injury and play at a similar level to his play last season before he went down - if so the Colts should have a great O. But their defensive front is very iffy, their LB unit is extremely inexperienced and their edge rush other than Latu is questionable too. I am still puzzled by them giving up so much for Sauce Gardner because their secondary wasn’t bad, now they are very deep in the secondary but shaky on the defensive front.
The AFC South will be intriguing - even the Titans should be competitive IMO, they look improved on both sides of the ball and could surprise people, I doubt they contend for the playoffs but they should definitely be better.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I will never buy in as long as Trevor Lawrence is their QB. Yeah he was solid last season but I'm still not a believer.

 

[Think McFly Think]

I will never buy in as long as Trevor Lawrence is their QB. Yeah he was solid last season but I'm still not a believer.

I’m leaning towards that, it’s been 5 years now and it’s still hard to gauge where he’s at, some of that is the Jags too.

If he was gonna make his splash to set him apart from the middle of the pack or dignify his name in the QB ranks, that window is closing or has closed imo.

Only a really great upcoming season would persuade me to think otherwise at this point and even then would be questionable.

 

[Xeliou66]

I’m leaning towards that, it’s been 5 years now and it’s still hard to gauge where he’s at, some of that is the Jags too.

If he was gonna make his splash to set him apart from the middle of the pack or dignify his name in the QB ranks, that window is closing or has closed imo.

Only a really great upcoming season would persuade me to think otherwise at this point and even then would be questionable.

I agree the window is closing on Lawrence to establish himself as a strong franchise QB - he isn’t bad but he has been pretty underwhelming for a #1 pick - last year was his second best season (his best being 2022) and I could see him having a strong season this year with the receiving weapons he has but the question at RB is a concern - I wonder how much Etienne’s departure will hurt, he rushed for over 1100 yards last season and it would take a big leap forward for Rodriguez or Tuten to match that production. So if the rushing game is iffy that could put a lot of pressure on Lawrence.

 

[PDay8810]

Many said the same about Elway.
The narrative can change quickly and IMO, the credit still goes to the one's actually in the arena.

 

[Xeliou66]

Many said the same about Elway.
The narrative can change quickly and IMO, the credit still goes to the one's actually in the arena.

Are you comparing Elway to Lawrence? Lawrence is going into his 6th season - Elway had already made it to the Super Bowl by the time of his 6th season in the NFL, Lawrence has won 1 playoff game.
I agree it’s too early to write off Lawrence, I mean look at Sam Darnold, he was written off as a complete bust at the point of his career that Lawrence is at now and he’s now a Super Bowl champion. But up to this point Lawrence has been underwhelming for a #1 overall pick.

 

[Clayton]

Are you comparing Elway to Lawrence? Lawrence is going into his 6th season - Elway had already made it to the Super Bowl by the time of his 6th season in the NFL, Lawrence has won 1 playoff game.
I agree it’s too early to write off Lawrence, I mean look at Sam Darnold, he was written off as a complete bust at the point of his career that Lawrence is at now and he’s now a Super Bowl champion. But up to this point Lawrence has been underwhelming for a #1 overall pick.

Honestly the track record for #1 overall probably puts him right around average over the years

 

[Xeliou66]

Honestly the track record for #1 overall probably puts him right around average over the years

You’re probably right about #1 overall picks, they have a mixed track record. it does seem like Lawrence got an extreme amount of hype, the most hyped up QB since Andrew Luck IMO, and so maybe people are overly harsh with him, but it remains that Lawrence is probably not in the top half of QBs in the NFL and that’s underwhelming. He’s not a bust, and he could still improve, but he’s not the generational player he was hyped up as.

 

[Clayton]

You’re probably right about #1 overall picks, they have a mixed track record. it does seem like Lawrence got an extreme amount of hype, the most hyped up QB since Andrew Luck IMO, and so maybe people are overly harsh with him, but it remains that Lawrence is probably not in the top half of QBs in the NFL and that’s underwhelming. He’s not a bust, and he could still improve, but he’s not the generational player he was hyped up as.

Definitely not generational but at 26 he could be someone in and around the playoffs for the next 15 years

 

[ChrisWebber]

I personally think they are ssolid and def can replicate their 2025 season. Colts are a question mark, Stroud has not been the same and the Titans are rebuilding.

Also, Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division and you aint winning games wiithout good QBs.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

You’re probably right about #1 overall picks, they have a mixed track record. it does seem like Lawrence got an extreme amount of hype, the most hyped up QB since Andrew Luck IMO, and so maybe people are overly harsh with him, but it remains that Lawrence is probably not in the top half of QBs in the NFL and that’s underwhelming. He’s not a bust, and he could still improve, but he’s not the generational player he was hyped up as.

Lawerence has been saddled with some bad coaching (Urban Meyer) along with a bad FO. Hopefully for him Liam Coen can unlock TL's potential.