calling resident math nerds...

[puckhead]

I know there's at least two of you here!!!
for a friend on another board I frequent..... Is there an optimal strategy?

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52 cards were mixed, then sealed face down on a board numbered 1-52...Drawing is every Tues. at 8:00 EST
You can buy 8 tickets for 5.00 as many as you want
You put your name and the number of which card you think is the ace of spades. You can put the same # on each ticket or any numbers you like of the cards remaining
They draw one ticket. If it is your name and the number you wrote on the ticket ends up being the ace of spades,
you win.(the face down card is unsealed in front of everybody.
36 weeks have went by, still no winner.
16 cards left on the board.(one of which is the Ace of spades)
If I buy 32 tickets tonight (20.00), should I put differnt numbers on each ticket of the 16 remaining cards or should I pick one card and put that number on all 32 tickets?
They sell a little less than 400.00 worth of tickets a week.
Is there any equation that can be used to increase my odds of winning tonight?
I know the more tickets I buy, the odds increase of my ticket being drawn with my name.
What about picking the number/s?(16 left) to put on each ticket?
Or......is this just a luck of the draw thing?
Thought I would at least ask, any tips would help.

 

[The Crimson King]

What do you win? If you put the same number on all of your tickets, you have less than a .5% chance of winning. Have to think about it...

And aren't you a little late, since it's Wednesday morning now?

 

[quoipourquoi]

I know there's at least two of you here!!!
for a friend on another board I frequent..... Is there an optimal strategy?

----------------------------------------
52 cards were mixed, then sealed face down on a board numbered 1-52...Drawing is every Tues. at 8:00 EST
You can buy 8 tickets for 5.00 as many as you want
You put your name and the number of which card you think is the ace of spades. You can put the same # on each ticket or any numbers you like of the cards remaining
They draw one ticket. If it is your name and the number you wrote on the ticket ends up being the ace of spades,
you win.(the face down card is unsealed in front of everybody.
36 weeks have went by, still no winner.
16 cards left on the board.(one of which is the Ace of spades)
If I buy 32 tickets tonight (20.00), should I put differnt numbers on each ticket of the 16 remaining cards or should I pick one card and put that number on all 32 tickets?
They sell a little less than 400.00 worth of tickets a week.
Is there any equation that can be used to increase my odds of winning tonight?
I know the more tickets I buy, the odds increase of my ticket being drawn with my name.
What about picking the number/s?(16 left) to put on each ticket?
Or......is this just a luck of the draw thing?
Thought I would at least ask, any tips would help.

All right... I'm awake... and I'm ignoring the factor of there having been 36 consecutive non-winners and looking strictly at a 1/16 chance.

You say they sell about $400 per week (640 tickets). No matter what, whichever ticket they pull, it's still only a 1/16 chance of winning. If you have 32 tickets of the 640 tickets in the pot, you have a 5% chance of being the guy who has a 6.25% chance of winning the pot. In other words, you're fucked, and that $20 would have been better spent on four copies of this month's Vanity Fair (there's a very good interview with Lady Gaga).

At this point, the bigger battle is getting drawn as opposed to guessing correctly, so you'd be better suited with going with the same number on each ticket from now on (unless you want a potentially winning ticket with your name on it to please your mindset).

You shouldn't spend more than $5 each time, unless there's a low turnout, because the amount you'd have to put in to increase your odds significantly is too much. Better to deal with the bum odds and hope it's your lucky night, really.

 

[The Crimson King]

I'm just wondering if you get the total money put into this thing. You're getting ~720:1 on your $20. I would definitely wait a few weeks though to buy tickets, unless you have to each time.

 

[juliansteed]

Statistically I don't think either strategy is better or worse than the other. The expected value for each ticket would be the same. I didn't notice what the prize is but I figure its safe to assume the expected value is less than what you paid for it, so if you are going on statistics alone you wouldn't be playing in the first place.

It basically all comes down to risk and reward. Do you want to really gamble in an effort to maximize your return? Or play it safer and increase your odds of winning something but at a lower return?

In a way, its really not much different then investing in the stock market. Do you want to diversify your portfolio or hope to hit a homerun with a few risky investments?

 

[juliansteed]

I'm not sure I totally understand the game. If you have tickets and your card is not drawn does it still carry over for future weeks or does that ticket no longer have any value? Does the pot keep building each week based on new sales? If older tickets still have value do they get a larger percentage of the pot than tickets purchased with fewer cards remaining?

My assumption is that all tickets still have value until the the Ace of Spades is drawn. The pot builds each week based on the ticket sales. The total pot (after the house keeps their share of course) is divided among all the winning tickets but not all winning tickets are valued the same. The more cards remaining at the time of the purchase, the more valuable the ticket is compared to tickets purchased with fewer cards.

 

[Automattic]

I just thought you guys might get a chuckle out of me even opening this thread.

 

[SLY]

lol auto, too early to even think about this. I read the first sentence and hit the back button.

 

[puckhead]

sorry, left out a couple of details (it's not my pool, as mentioned).

the prize is up to about $11,000.
its a weekly draw, and tickets that you buy this week get thrown out so next week is fresh.

 

[dare2be]

I don't believe it matters what strategy you use to pick the numbers, you will effectively have 1/16 shot at guessing the correct number, whether you have 16 entries with the same number or 1 entry for each number. Where your variables lie are in the number of total entries for the week and the number of entries you buy yourself.

 

[Dacks]

Damn, I have to leave for a soccer game in 2 minutes or I'd give this a proper readthrough....

Rule of thumb in these games: you're goal is to win money, not win the game. That's why you never pick the number 12345 in a lottery. It's got the same chance to win as any other number, but you'd have to split the money with a million other people who picked 12345...

 

[juliansteed]

Damn, I have to leave for a soccer game in 2 minutes or I'd give this a proper readthrough....

Rule of thumb in these games: you're goal is to win money, not win the game. That's why you never pick the number 12345 in a lottery. It's got the same chance to win as any other number, but you'd have to split the money with a million other people who picked 12345...

12345? That's the stupidest lottery ticket I ever heard in my life! That's the kind of thing an idiot would have on his luggage!

YouTube - Spaceballs 12345

 

[The Crimson King]

I don't believe it matters what strategy you use to pick the numbers, you will effectively have 1/16 shot at guessing the correct number, whether you have 16 entries with the same number or 1 entry for each number. Where your variables lie are in the number of total entries for the week and the number of entries you buy yourself.

As many way as I've thought through this....I believe this is correct...Make all tickets the same number, hell

 

[The Crimson King]

Damn, I have to leave for a soccer game in 2 minutes or I'd give this a proper readthrough....

Rule of thumb in these games: you're goal is to win money, not win the game. That's why you never pick the number 12345 in a lottery. It's got the same chance to win as any other number, but you'd have to split the money with a million other people who picked 12345...