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iknowftbll
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It has been a busy week with much prognosticating on the heels of the Clady injury. When I read about the injury my reaction was to lament the loss of the best LT in the game, but after a review of some of the stats and some reminders of Clady's weaknesses in some areas of play throughout 2014, I have to admit I was far from right on that claim. With that said, it's still a major blow. Clady likely would have thrived in Kubiak's system. Remember, it was Shanahan who drafted him into the ZBS in the first place. But thinking about what could have been is not going to bring him back. I'm willing to consider what can still be.
It's a fair critique to say this offensive line will be the team's greatest weakness in 2015. At least from where we sit now it is. Then there's the coaching changes, system changes, loss of players, additions of new faces to replace them, etc. All told, the Broncos do not look to be a media favorite for the Super Bowl this year. That's fine with me. I believe the Broncos will actually be fourth or fifth down the list even within the AFC (Patriots and Colts will be the favorites, with the Steelers and Ravens being trendy picks in greater numbers than the Broncos in 2015) and THIS is fine with me. Because despite all the changes, I believe this Broncos team is as strong a team as they've assembled. Couple with a new DC who actually believes in aggressive defense and an HC whose departure from our OC position after the 2005 season spelled the beginning of the end for the Shanahan era and I believe this is a Broncos squat that will once again run rough shod over the AFC West. And once they reach the playoffs there is no telling what will happen. Suffice to say the current regime will not likely allow this team to look as passive and disinterested as their predecessors.
So how will it all go down? Let's have a look, shall we?
Week 1: Vs Ravens: The Broncos get a gut check right out of the gate. Both Wade Phillips new look defense and the Broncos new-look O-line are going to get tested in this one. The Ravens have proven themselves to be a very resilient and capable team. But this new-look Broncos team is going to be eager to get out the gate fast and start with a home win. Broncos gut it out early and pull away late as their offense adjust and the defense is relentless. Broncos 28, Ravens 17. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: @ Chiefs (TNF): This is a tough out. Drawing the Chiefs for their home opener, combined with our first roadie, and on a short week...that's a tough spot to be in. The Broncos have owned the Chiefs in the Fox era, with a 7-1 record and 6-0 with Manning. But streaks are made to be broken, and this Chiefs team is capable of beating anyone any given week. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as I often do in KC. Chiefs 24, Broncos 21. Broncos 1-1. (Cue the echoes of Chiefs fans: "This is our year! Broncos are done!)
Week 3: @ Lions (SNF): The last couple times the Broncos have played the Lions it has ended in very lop-sided losses for the good guys. Try 44-7 in 2007 and 45-10 in 2010. But this Broncos team will be coming off a close loss and will have 10 days to prepare for this one. I don't see them dropping two consecutive prime time games, either. Broncos 31, Lions 17. Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Vs Vikings: The Broncos are just better. By a long shot. Even if Adrian Peterson is playing for the Vikings, the Broncos are better. Broncos 31, Vikings 3. Broncos 3-1.
Week 5: @ Raiders: The Broncos meet up with an old friend in Jack Del Rio, who would be the second former Broncos DC the Raiders have hired for their HC (interim positions excluded). The Raiders showed some grit in an ugly season last year, and I expect that will continue, at least at this point in the season. But they are going to be woefully overmatched in this one. The Broncos take one on the road as the defense shines. Broncos 35, Raiders 10. Broncos 4-1.
Week 6: @ Browns: The Broncos are going to blank someone this year. They're due. And with this defense...it's going to happen to someone. Probably the Browns. Broncos 28, Browns 0. Broncos 5-1.
Week 7: Bye.
Week 8: Vs Packers (SNF): The Broncos and Packers alike are coming off a bye week, and this one is going to have the defense's hands full. The key will be this: get a lead and get it fast. Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, but he's not a great come from behind kind of QB. A home prime time game bodes well for this Broncos team that is rolling steady at this point. Broncos 35, Packers 27. Broncos 6-1.
Week 9: @ Colts: There is no amount of beating the Colts in the regular season that will make up for that uninspired home playoff loss last season. But a win here will go a long way toward excising some demons. Especially against a team that is likely going to be contending for a first round playoff bye. It's going to be a close one, but the Broncos edge the Colts. Broncos 24, Colts 23. Broncos 7-1.
Week 10: Vs Chiefs: The Chiefs come into this one off a bye. I guess the schedule makes decided they needed all the help they could get. It won't be enough. The Chiefs will have already booked a win over the Broncos in week 2, but this one won't be close. I do respect their defense, but I believe the Broncos defense will corral the Chiefs offense to the point of near-futility. Broncos 28, Chiefs 7. Broncos 8-1.
Week 11: @ Bears: Once again the Broncos will reunite with an old friend. I'm talking about Fox, not Cutler. There's no guarantee Cutler will even be playing by this point. He's had problems with injuries lately, and when he's not injured he's throwing picks all the way to being benched. Still Fox will likely pull out all the stops in this one. And he'll need to. And it won't be enough. Broncos 27, Bears 13. Broncos 9-1.
Week 12: Vs Patriots (SNF): Much will be made of "Manning vs Brady" again. That's a tiresome dialogue, especially when collectively these two teams have 104 other players and the only time Manning and Brady are on the field together is during the coin toss and post-game handshake. The Broncos are 1-3 vs the Patriots since Manning arrived. The single win? In the playoffs. And in Denver. Make of that what you will. Broncos 34, Patriots 30. Broncos 10-1.
Week 13: @ Chargers: The Chargers offense looks like it is going to be pretty good, but I still question how good their defense will be. I think their offense will be able to run, and Rivers can pass with anyone. But with the upgrades on the Broncos defense I think they'll be able to rattle Rivers early and often and force mistakes. And that Chargers offense just won't be able to contain the Broncos through the whole game. Broncos 31, Chargers 24. Broncos 11-1.
Week 14: Vs Raiders: The Broncos will likely have already clinched the AFC West by now, or will do so with a win over the Raiders. The Raiders will be en route to another losing season. Broncos 37, Raiders 13. Broncos 12-1.
Week 15: @ Steelers: The Steelers are a solid team the Broncos are due for a letdown. A late road game in Pittsburgh is a likely candidate for that letdown. Steelers 27, Broncos 17. Broncos 12-2.
Week 16: Vs Bengals (MNF): Another late MNF matchup between these teams. The Broncos let one get away from them last year, but coming off a loss to the Steelers they will rebound in this one. Playoff seeds are on the line and while the Broncos are likely going to be ahead of the pack at this point, they will have plenty of competition breathing down their necks. The Bengals are good enough to be some of that competition, but not good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver on MNF. Broncos 27, Bengals 10. Broncos 13-2.
Week 17: Vs Chargers: Whether the Broncos have locked in the #1 seed already or not is irrelevant. They win this one. Either they need the win to lock in the seed or they need the win to deny the Chargers a playoff spot. If the Broncos have already locked in the seed but resting starters means allowing the Chargers a shot at getting into the playoffs, I see them going full bore. The Chargers are a feisty team and it's in the Broncos best interests to keep them out of the playoffs. Broncos 31, Chargers 13. Broncos 14-2.
Yes, I said it: Broncos 14-2. But that doesn't mean I'm a Broncos homer. I see a schedule that favors this team, though. Last season the Broncos drew some of their tougher games (Patriots, Seahawks) on the road, while the Chiefs got those teams at home. This year the Broncos toughest road games are at Kansas City and Pittsburg, while their toughest games are home games. That helps.
Also, notice the point totals are down. Broncos PF: 465, PA: 258. While I am picking a finish of 14-2, I am not predicting the Broncos go out and bludgeon too many of their opponents the way I may have last year. This offense will likely be lower scoring, but the defense is where this team is most improved. Mark it: This is a better Broncos team than any of the 2012-2014 teams. Even if it isn't going to be as gaudy and flashy on offense.
I do think Manning breaks 4,000 yards again, throwing for 35 TDs and 10 picks, while C.J. Anderson breaks 1,200 rushing yards and adds 10 TDs. The other RBs will combine to put the Broncos over 2,000 rushing yards for the season which will take the pressure off of Manning. Working on offensive balance will be something the Broncos stress over the summer instead of trying to adjust halfway through the season.
Finally, what does 14-2 get the Broncos? Here are my AFC West projections and playoff seeds:
Broncos: 14-2
Chiefs: 12-4
Chargers: 9-7
Raiders: 4-12
Playoff seeds:
1. Broncos: 14-2
2. Colts: 13-3
3. Patriots: 12-4
4. Steelers: 10-6
5. Chiefs: 12-4
6. Ravens: 10-6
Your thoughts?
It's a fair critique to say this offensive line will be the team's greatest weakness in 2015. At least from where we sit now it is. Then there's the coaching changes, system changes, loss of players, additions of new faces to replace them, etc. All told, the Broncos do not look to be a media favorite for the Super Bowl this year. That's fine with me. I believe the Broncos will actually be fourth or fifth down the list even within the AFC (Patriots and Colts will be the favorites, with the Steelers and Ravens being trendy picks in greater numbers than the Broncos in 2015) and THIS is fine with me. Because despite all the changes, I believe this Broncos team is as strong a team as they've assembled. Couple with a new DC who actually believes in aggressive defense and an HC whose departure from our OC position after the 2005 season spelled the beginning of the end for the Shanahan era and I believe this is a Broncos squat that will once again run rough shod over the AFC West. And once they reach the playoffs there is no telling what will happen. Suffice to say the current regime will not likely allow this team to look as passive and disinterested as their predecessors.
So how will it all go down? Let's have a look, shall we?
Week 1: Vs Ravens: The Broncos get a gut check right out of the gate. Both Wade Phillips new look defense and the Broncos new-look O-line are going to get tested in this one. The Ravens have proven themselves to be a very resilient and capable team. But this new-look Broncos team is going to be eager to get out the gate fast and start with a home win. Broncos gut it out early and pull away late as their offense adjust and the defense is relentless. Broncos 28, Ravens 17. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: @ Chiefs (TNF): This is a tough out. Drawing the Chiefs for their home opener, combined with our first roadie, and on a short week...that's a tough spot to be in. The Broncos have owned the Chiefs in the Fox era, with a 7-1 record and 6-0 with Manning. But streaks are made to be broken, and this Chiefs team is capable of beating anyone any given week. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as I often do in KC. Chiefs 24, Broncos 21. Broncos 1-1. (Cue the echoes of Chiefs fans: "This is our year! Broncos are done!)
Week 3: @ Lions (SNF): The last couple times the Broncos have played the Lions it has ended in very lop-sided losses for the good guys. Try 44-7 in 2007 and 45-10 in 2010. But this Broncos team will be coming off a close loss and will have 10 days to prepare for this one. I don't see them dropping two consecutive prime time games, either. Broncos 31, Lions 17. Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Vs Vikings: The Broncos are just better. By a long shot. Even if Adrian Peterson is playing for the Vikings, the Broncos are better. Broncos 31, Vikings 3. Broncos 3-1.
Week 5: @ Raiders: The Broncos meet up with an old friend in Jack Del Rio, who would be the second former Broncos DC the Raiders have hired for their HC (interim positions excluded). The Raiders showed some grit in an ugly season last year, and I expect that will continue, at least at this point in the season. But they are going to be woefully overmatched in this one. The Broncos take one on the road as the defense shines. Broncos 35, Raiders 10. Broncos 4-1.
Week 6: @ Browns: The Broncos are going to blank someone this year. They're due. And with this defense...it's going to happen to someone. Probably the Browns. Broncos 28, Browns 0. Broncos 5-1.
Week 7: Bye.
Week 8: Vs Packers (SNF): The Broncos and Packers alike are coming off a bye week, and this one is going to have the defense's hands full. The key will be this: get a lead and get it fast. Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, but he's not a great come from behind kind of QB. A home prime time game bodes well for this Broncos team that is rolling steady at this point. Broncos 35, Packers 27. Broncos 6-1.
Week 9: @ Colts: There is no amount of beating the Colts in the regular season that will make up for that uninspired home playoff loss last season. But a win here will go a long way toward excising some demons. Especially against a team that is likely going to be contending for a first round playoff bye. It's going to be a close one, but the Broncos edge the Colts. Broncos 24, Colts 23. Broncos 7-1.
Week 10: Vs Chiefs: The Chiefs come into this one off a bye. I guess the schedule makes decided they needed all the help they could get. It won't be enough. The Chiefs will have already booked a win over the Broncos in week 2, but this one won't be close. I do respect their defense, but I believe the Broncos defense will corral the Chiefs offense to the point of near-futility. Broncos 28, Chiefs 7. Broncos 8-1.
Week 11: @ Bears: Once again the Broncos will reunite with an old friend. I'm talking about Fox, not Cutler. There's no guarantee Cutler will even be playing by this point. He's had problems with injuries lately, and when he's not injured he's throwing picks all the way to being benched. Still Fox will likely pull out all the stops in this one. And he'll need to. And it won't be enough. Broncos 27, Bears 13. Broncos 9-1.
Week 12: Vs Patriots (SNF): Much will be made of "Manning vs Brady" again. That's a tiresome dialogue, especially when collectively these two teams have 104 other players and the only time Manning and Brady are on the field together is during the coin toss and post-game handshake. The Broncos are 1-3 vs the Patriots since Manning arrived. The single win? In the playoffs. And in Denver. Make of that what you will. Broncos 34, Patriots 30. Broncos 10-1.
Week 13: @ Chargers: The Chargers offense looks like it is going to be pretty good, but I still question how good their defense will be. I think their offense will be able to run, and Rivers can pass with anyone. But with the upgrades on the Broncos defense I think they'll be able to rattle Rivers early and often and force mistakes. And that Chargers offense just won't be able to contain the Broncos through the whole game. Broncos 31, Chargers 24. Broncos 11-1.
Week 14: Vs Raiders: The Broncos will likely have already clinched the AFC West by now, or will do so with a win over the Raiders. The Raiders will be en route to another losing season. Broncos 37, Raiders 13. Broncos 12-1.
Week 15: @ Steelers: The Steelers are a solid team the Broncos are due for a letdown. A late road game in Pittsburgh is a likely candidate for that letdown. Steelers 27, Broncos 17. Broncos 12-2.
Week 16: Vs Bengals (MNF): Another late MNF matchup between these teams. The Broncos let one get away from them last year, but coming off a loss to the Steelers they will rebound in this one. Playoff seeds are on the line and while the Broncos are likely going to be ahead of the pack at this point, they will have plenty of competition breathing down their necks. The Bengals are good enough to be some of that competition, but not good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver on MNF. Broncos 27, Bengals 10. Broncos 13-2.
Week 17: Vs Chargers: Whether the Broncos have locked in the #1 seed already or not is irrelevant. They win this one. Either they need the win to lock in the seed or they need the win to deny the Chargers a playoff spot. If the Broncos have already locked in the seed but resting starters means allowing the Chargers a shot at getting into the playoffs, I see them going full bore. The Chargers are a feisty team and it's in the Broncos best interests to keep them out of the playoffs. Broncos 31, Chargers 13. Broncos 14-2.
Yes, I said it: Broncos 14-2. But that doesn't mean I'm a Broncos homer. I see a schedule that favors this team, though. Last season the Broncos drew some of their tougher games (Patriots, Seahawks) on the road, while the Chiefs got those teams at home. This year the Broncos toughest road games are at Kansas City and Pittsburg, while their toughest games are home games. That helps.
Also, notice the point totals are down. Broncos PF: 465, PA: 258. While I am picking a finish of 14-2, I am not predicting the Broncos go out and bludgeon too many of their opponents the way I may have last year. This offense will likely be lower scoring, but the defense is where this team is most improved. Mark it: This is a better Broncos team than any of the 2012-2014 teams. Even if it isn't going to be as gaudy and flashy on offense.
I do think Manning breaks 4,000 yards again, throwing for 35 TDs and 10 picks, while C.J. Anderson breaks 1,200 rushing yards and adds 10 TDs. The other RBs will combine to put the Broncos over 2,000 rushing yards for the season which will take the pressure off of Manning. Working on offensive balance will be something the Broncos stress over the summer instead of trying to adjust halfway through the season.
Finally, what does 14-2 get the Broncos? Here are my AFC West projections and playoff seeds:
Broncos: 14-2
Chiefs: 12-4
Chargers: 9-7
Raiders: 4-12
Playoff seeds:
1. Broncos: 14-2
2. Colts: 13-3
3. Patriots: 12-4
4. Steelers: 10-6
5. Chiefs: 12-4
6. Ravens: 10-6
Your thoughts?