Bonds and Clemens Projected Totals, Without PEDs

[catman]

Here is a writer's idea of how their careers would have gone without "assistance".

Numbers game: Bonds, Clemens totals more mortal without PED factor

Stats guru Dan Szymborski projected how Bonds' and Clemens' careers should have played out based on their pre-PEDs numbers. Spoiler: They were still great, just not quite immortal.

www.espn.com

 

[broncosmitty]

Skimmed to the point where they accredited 50 of Bonds 73 homers in ‘01 to roids.


No point in going further for me.

 

[megalodon30]

I’m guessing Bonds would still be the all-time leader in walks, but you’d also have to guess that he wouldn’t have been intentionally walked so much which might’ve put him behind Rickey Henderson.

 

[broncosmitty]

I’m guessing Bonds would still be the all-time leader in walks, but you’d also have to guess that he wouldn’t have been intentionally walked so much which might’ve put him behind Rickey Henderson.

He still would’ve walked in a good chunk of those ABs.


He was getting pitched around as a Pirate to the point he was intentionally walked more often than he hit home runs a couple years. Which seems dangerous as a pitcher since he was swiping 40-50 bags a year then.

I’m with you, second would be as low as he could’ve fallen.

But if Pedialite and Peloton had existed when #3 in walks was playing, he might’ve had 3000.

 

[msgkings322]

He still would’ve walked in a good chunk of those ABs.


He was getting pitched around as a Pirate to the point he was intentionally walked more often than he hit home runs a couple years. Which seems dangerous as a pitcher since he was swiping 40-50 bags a year then.

I’m with you, second would be as low as he could’ve fallen.

But if Pedialite and Peloton had existed when #3 in walks was playing, he might’ve had 3000.

And then of course, there was the time Buck Showalter (with the Dbacks) walked Bonds intentionally with the bases loaded.

 

[navamind]

Keep in mind that those are median projections. Elite baseball players usually end up outperforming their median projections. Did Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron drop off a cliff after they turned 35? I think these projections are very misleading and poorly applied.

For example, Steamer has Trout projected for 6.1 WAR. The only times he's failed to exceed that in a season was his rookie cup of coffee, a COVID-shortened 2020 season, and an injury shortened 2021 season.

 

[calsnowskier]

I’m guessing Bonds would still be the all-time leader in walks, but you’d also have to guess that he wouldn’t have been intentionally walked so much which might’ve put him behind Rickey Henderson.

Ricky argues that his career walk total is more impressive because he got his when the other team didn’t want him to get them.

Both totals are freakishly impressive.

Bonds was so far ahead of everyone else in the game that the other team wanted nothing to do with him. Even if he had an MVP, borderline HOF hitting behind him, and even when the bases were loaded. Walk.

Ricky got his when the other teams was doing everything humanly possible to keep him off the base paths. He routinely turned a walk into a double (or more) AND messed with the pitcher so he didn’t concentrate on the batter hitting behind Ricky.

It is hard to displace Ruth, Bonds, Mays or Williams as one of the 3 greatest OFers in the history of the game, but I think Ricky belongs in that conversation up to the very last cut. Dude was not human.

 

[steveringo]

They were 100% first ballot HOFers before they joined the roid rage.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

They were 100% first ballot HOFers before they joined the roid rage.

That's true, but that they did and they are both huge assholes the writers have no problem leaving them out.

 

[steveringo]

That's true, but that they did and they are both huge assholes the writers have no problem leaving them out.

still early, but...

2022 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard – Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker

www.bbhoftracker.com

 

[Edonidd]

If the pitchers weren't on roids Bonds would have hit even more than he did. Same if Clemons would have been clean and picthing to clean players he would have looked even better than he did, not worse.

 

[steveringo]

If the pitchers weren't on roids Bonds would have hit even more than he did. Same if Clemons would have been clean and picthing to clean players he would have looked even better than he did, not worse.

Good points. We'll never know, but it's fun to make projections...

I remember compiling career stats of players that took time off for war - using the averages of the years before and after their time away. Try it with Ted Williams when you get a chance...

 

[Cedrique]

If the pitchers weren't on roids Bonds would have hit even more than he did. Same if Clemons would have been clean and picthing to clean players he would have looked even better than he did, not worse.

surely you're joking