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Biggest roster weaknesses for Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans - NFL
By Tom Gower
Houston Texans
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
As we chronicled before free agency began, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a reasonably effective quarterback for the Texans in 2014 despite his obvious limitations. The team chose to part ways with him, though, and instead re-signed Ryan Mallett and added Brian Hoyer.
Mallett is heading into the fifth year of his career and is still very much an unknown quantity. He played just 22 regular-season snaps in three seasons as Tom Brady's backup in New England and managed only two starts in Houston in 2014 before suffering a season-ending pectoral injury. In those two games, his Total QBR was a below-average 48.2, but a career sample size of less than 80 attempts does not let us predict his future with confidence. The best -- and only -- argument in his favor right now: Coach Bill O'Brien wanted him.
Replacing Fitzpatrick with Hoyer was a curious move, considering Hoyer has some of the same demerits as Fitzpatrick -- less-than-ideal height and arm strength -- yet Fitzpatrick has a much more accomplished track record. Hoyer's only significant playing experience came last season in Cleveland, when he posted a below-average 43.1 Total QBR, worse than Fitzpatrick's in the past five seasons (50.4). The Texans could be worried about Fitzpatrick's age -- he turns 33 during the season -- but Hoyer turns 30 in October, and should not be considered a developmental quarterback.
The Texans are obviously hoping Mallett stays healthy for a full season and justifies the faith O'Brien has in him. The coach did manage to get the best out of Fitzpatrick, so it's not out of the question that he does the same with Mallett. But if the Texans have to turn to Hoyer, they seem unlikely to improve on last season's 9-7 mark -- even in a still-down AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line
Owner Jim Irsay once spoke of his wish that the current edition of the Colts not be built entirely around an outstanding quarterback who's repeatedly asked to bail out the offense. Turning that hope into a reality usually starts with building a good offensive line -- and the Colts do not have one.
The Colts fared well by our adjusted sack rate metric, ranking seventh in 2014, but that was mostly the result of quarterback Andrew Luck proving difficult to bring down for a loss. The problem? For the third time in as many years, Luck led the league in hits while getting the ball away. He was knocked down 91 times, including plays canceled by penalty, far more than second-place Matt Ryan, who finished with 65 in Atlanta.
And those hits, for the most part, were the fault of Indy's offensive linemen. According to our game charting project, no Colts lineman had an above-average blown block rate for his position. In fact, most ranked among the worst in the league. Gosder Cherilus had one every 26.9 snaps, second-worst among right tackles. Lance Louis had one every 31 snaps, third-worst among left guards. Hugh Thornton had one every 32.3 snaps, second-worst among right guards. Jonathan Harrison had one every 32.2 snaps, second-worst among centers.
The Colts signed Todd Herremans to help keep Luck upright, but he's barely an upgrade. His blown block rate ranked 30th among 34 right guards with at least 400 snaps. Herremans also turns 33 during the season, so Indianapolis may not want to count on him suiting up for more than the eight games he played in 2014. The only other help comes in the form of Donald Thomas -- who missed all of 2014 with an injury -- and rookie Denzelle Good from Mars Hill (N.C.) University, chosen one pick before Mr. Irrelevant. Barring significant improvement, Luck will again go to the ground too many times while doing the same thing Peyton Manning did for so many years in Indy: carrying an offense and a team on his own.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest post-draft weakness: Pass rush
The biggest question mark for the 2015 Jaguars is how much Blake Bortles improves after posting by far the worst Total QBR last season (21.9). But because he's locked in as the starter and Chad Henne is a reasonable backup, we can't call that a weakness; it's a plan for the future that may or may not work out.
Instead, let's focus on the pass rush. The Jaguars ranked second in our adjusted sack rate metric and sixth overall with 45 sacks. But a lot of those came from flooding the zones with coverage, not from consistent pressure. They led the league with 12 coverage sacks according to our game charting (the NFL average is five), and according to ESPN Stats & Information, they ranked 31st with a 20.1 total pressure rate.
So Jacksonville drafting edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. third overall made plenty of sense, but he's expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL suffered in rookie minicamp. That leaves Jared Odrick and Dan Skuta as the only new blood, which is a problem. Odrick is primarily a run-stopper, with just one sack and 6.5 hurries in 2014, while Skuta's 2014 pass-rush performance mirrors that of his new teammates. His four hurries last season suggest that his decent sack total (five) is overinflated. Expect a regression in 2015 -- for both Skuta and his new squad.
Tennessee Titans
Biggest post-draft weakness: Outside linebacker
This is a familiar sore spot for the Titans. Derrick Morgan led the group with just 6.5 sacks in 2014, and no other player had more than two. The Titans hit the position in free agency, re-signing Morgan and adding Brian Orakpo. But the lack of depth remains a concern, especially because new defensive maestro Dick LeBeau counts on the outside linebackers to be the core of his pass rush.
While Morgan and Orakpo will start and play a lot, NFL teams generally need a few quality backup edge rushers to play 15-20 snaps a game. The Titans plan on filling those roles with Jonathan Massaquoi, cut loose by pass-rush needy Atlanta early in the offseason, and sixth-round pick Deiontrez Mount, who was not even a starter at Louisville.
And don't forget: Orakpo has missed a total of 22 games during the past three years. A torn pectoral muscle ended his 2012 and 2014 seasons, and even before hitting IR last season, he was limited with finger and ankle issues -- and held to 0.5 sacks -- in seven games. His offseason comments about his pectoral muscle are predictably optimistic, but take those with a grain of salt. Any recurrence of Orakpo's injury issues or an absence by Morgan would force Massaquoi and Mount into bigger roles and likely see the position group faring even worse than it did in 2014.
By Tom Gower
Houston Texans
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
As we chronicled before free agency began, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a reasonably effective quarterback for the Texans in 2014 despite his obvious limitations. The team chose to part ways with him, though, and instead re-signed Ryan Mallett and added Brian Hoyer.
Mallett is heading into the fifth year of his career and is still very much an unknown quantity. He played just 22 regular-season snaps in three seasons as Tom Brady's backup in New England and managed only two starts in Houston in 2014 before suffering a season-ending pectoral injury. In those two games, his Total QBR was a below-average 48.2, but a career sample size of less than 80 attempts does not let us predict his future with confidence. The best -- and only -- argument in his favor right now: Coach Bill O'Brien wanted him.
Replacing Fitzpatrick with Hoyer was a curious move, considering Hoyer has some of the same demerits as Fitzpatrick -- less-than-ideal height and arm strength -- yet Fitzpatrick has a much more accomplished track record. Hoyer's only significant playing experience came last season in Cleveland, when he posted a below-average 43.1 Total QBR, worse than Fitzpatrick's in the past five seasons (50.4). The Texans could be worried about Fitzpatrick's age -- he turns 33 during the season -- but Hoyer turns 30 in October, and should not be considered a developmental quarterback.
The Texans are obviously hoping Mallett stays healthy for a full season and justifies the faith O'Brien has in him. The coach did manage to get the best out of Fitzpatrick, so it's not out of the question that he does the same with Mallett. But if the Texans have to turn to Hoyer, they seem unlikely to improve on last season's 9-7 mark -- even in a still-down AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line
Owner Jim Irsay once spoke of his wish that the current edition of the Colts not be built entirely around an outstanding quarterback who's repeatedly asked to bail out the offense. Turning that hope into a reality usually starts with building a good offensive line -- and the Colts do not have one.
The Colts fared well by our adjusted sack rate metric, ranking seventh in 2014, but that was mostly the result of quarterback Andrew Luck proving difficult to bring down for a loss. The problem? For the third time in as many years, Luck led the league in hits while getting the ball away. He was knocked down 91 times, including plays canceled by penalty, far more than second-place Matt Ryan, who finished with 65 in Atlanta.
And those hits, for the most part, were the fault of Indy's offensive linemen. According to our game charting project, no Colts lineman had an above-average blown block rate for his position. In fact, most ranked among the worst in the league. Gosder Cherilus had one every 26.9 snaps, second-worst among right tackles. Lance Louis had one every 31 snaps, third-worst among left guards. Hugh Thornton had one every 32.3 snaps, second-worst among right guards. Jonathan Harrison had one every 32.2 snaps, second-worst among centers.
The Colts signed Todd Herremans to help keep Luck upright, but he's barely an upgrade. His blown block rate ranked 30th among 34 right guards with at least 400 snaps. Herremans also turns 33 during the season, so Indianapolis may not want to count on him suiting up for more than the eight games he played in 2014. The only other help comes in the form of Donald Thomas -- who missed all of 2014 with an injury -- and rookie Denzelle Good from Mars Hill (N.C.) University, chosen one pick before Mr. Irrelevant. Barring significant improvement, Luck will again go to the ground too many times while doing the same thing Peyton Manning did for so many years in Indy: carrying an offense and a team on his own.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest post-draft weakness: Pass rush
The biggest question mark for the 2015 Jaguars is how much Blake Bortles improves after posting by far the worst Total QBR last season (21.9). But because he's locked in as the starter and Chad Henne is a reasonable backup, we can't call that a weakness; it's a plan for the future that may or may not work out.
Instead, let's focus on the pass rush. The Jaguars ranked second in our adjusted sack rate metric and sixth overall with 45 sacks. But a lot of those came from flooding the zones with coverage, not from consistent pressure. They led the league with 12 coverage sacks according to our game charting (the NFL average is five), and according to ESPN Stats & Information, they ranked 31st with a 20.1 total pressure rate.
So Jacksonville drafting edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. third overall made plenty of sense, but he's expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL suffered in rookie minicamp. That leaves Jared Odrick and Dan Skuta as the only new blood, which is a problem. Odrick is primarily a run-stopper, with just one sack and 6.5 hurries in 2014, while Skuta's 2014 pass-rush performance mirrors that of his new teammates. His four hurries last season suggest that his decent sack total (five) is overinflated. Expect a regression in 2015 -- for both Skuta and his new squad.
Tennessee Titans
Biggest post-draft weakness: Outside linebacker
This is a familiar sore spot for the Titans. Derrick Morgan led the group with just 6.5 sacks in 2014, and no other player had more than two. The Titans hit the position in free agency, re-signing Morgan and adding Brian Orakpo. But the lack of depth remains a concern, especially because new defensive maestro Dick LeBeau counts on the outside linebackers to be the core of his pass rush.
While Morgan and Orakpo will start and play a lot, NFL teams generally need a few quality backup edge rushers to play 15-20 snaps a game. The Titans plan on filling those roles with Jonathan Massaquoi, cut loose by pass-rush needy Atlanta early in the offseason, and sixth-round pick Deiontrez Mount, who was not even a starter at Louisville.
And don't forget: Orakpo has missed a total of 22 games during the past three years. A torn pectoral muscle ended his 2012 and 2014 seasons, and even before hitting IR last season, he was limited with finger and ankle issues -- and held to 0.5 sacks -- in seven games. His offseason comments about his pectoral muscle are predictably optimistic, but take those with a grain of salt. Any recurrence of Orakpo's injury issues or an absence by Morgan would force Massaquoi and Mount into bigger roles and likely see the position group faring even worse than it did in 2014.
