Biggest NFL Myth... Tough Schedules.

[USCDoom]

Last Year the Bucs were predicted by Peter King to go 2-14, saying there schedule was brutal... And if the Bucs played the 2009 version of these team then Ya, it would have been brutal.

2010 Bucs schedule and the record of the teams in 2009 then in 2010
Cleveland - 5-11 -- 5-11 (0)
At Carolina - 8-8 -- 1-15 (-7)
Pittsburgh - 9-7 -- 12-4 (+3)
At Cincinnati - 10-6 -- 4-12 (-6)
New Orleans - 13-3 -- 11-5 (-2)
St. Louis - 1-15 -- 7-9 (+6)
At Arizona - 10-6 -- 6-10 (-4)
Carolina - 8-8 -- 1-15 (-7)
At San Fransisco - 8-8 -- 6-10 (-2)
At Baltimore - 9-7 -- 12-4 (+3)
Atlanta - 9-7 -- 13-3 (+4)
At Washington - 4-12 -- 6-10 (+2)
Detroit - 2-14 -- 6-10 (+4)
Seattle - 5-11 -- 7-9 (+2)
At New Orleans - 13-3 -- 11-5 (-2)

So lets look and see if the Bucs are REALLY playing a Tougher schedule. The 2011 Bucs schedule with the teams record in 2010

Detroit - 6-10
At Minnesota - 6-10
Atlanta - 13-3
Indianapolis - 10-6
At San Fransisco - 6-10
New Orleans - 11-5
Chicago - 11-5
At New Orleans - 11-5
Houston - 6-10
At Green Bay - 10-6
At Tennessee - 6-10
Carolina - 1-15
At Jacksonville - 8-8
Dallas - 6-10
At Carolina - 1-15
At Atlanta - 13-3

One can easily say
Jacksonville
Chicago
Tennessee
Minnesota
San Fransisco
will be worse this year than last.(4 of the 5 on the road, and the other in London)

Houston
Green Bay
New Orleans
Detroit
Dallas
will all be better record wise this year (4 of the 6 at home)

Teams with new coaches
Minnesota
San Fransisco
Tennessee
Carolina x2
Dallas
6 games

Teams that might start Rookie QBs
Minnesota
San Fransisco
Tennessee
Carolina x2
Jacksonville
6 games

I see the Bucs beating Minnesota, SF, Carolina x2, Jacksonville, and Tennessee without too much trouble. That leaves 10 games in which the Bucs could lose. If they go 5-5 they are 11-5. A better record vs a Tougher Schedule? NO, just a better record.

 

[vancelot23]

Judging a team's strength of schedule based on last year is a bit misleading. In the NFL, teams can go from 4 wins to 10 wins quickly, from bad to good in a single season.

 

[USCDoom]

Judging a team's strength of schedule based on last year is a bit misleading. In the NFL, teams can go from 4 wins to 10 wins quickly, from bad to good in a single season.

Agreed, yet every year most people say something stupid like "They could be a better team but it wont show up in the record because of That Tough Schedule". And its complete Crap. I will use the Bucs as an example because it is just perfect. Everyone says they have a "Much Tougher Schedule" this year. But as shown above, it is NOT really that much tougher, in fact it could be easier.

 

[WestEndVol]

I know you said "might" but I don't see Locker starting over Hasselbeck.

 

[DChero]

The way that I always think about it is in strength of division. If for example, the Bucs division produced 3 playoffs teams from the year before and they play a division with a similar situation, then sure. What stands out to me if the best team from last year looks slightly weaker in that they only had 10 wins.

 

[Smart]

How can you easily say the Bears wll be worse this year than last year? Last year, this defense was adjusting to being lead by someone other than Lovie Smith for the first time since 2006 (technically, Bob Babich was our DC in 07 & 08 , but everyone acknowledges he was nothing but Lovie's bitch). The defense had a pretty good year, but they were not anywhere near the level that they were in the last two years under Rivera. Quite honestly, this team has more talent than the 2006 team, and if the O-Line can hold their own, I expect an 11-5 season or better with a harder schedule than last year.

I also disagree with most of your other four teams that you have getting worse. Minnesota gave up last year, and will almost assuredly show more heart. Tennessee played absolutely terrible to start last year, and desperately needed a QB who could lead and play well. They now have that. San Francisco has a better coach, so i'm not sure why'd they get worse.

I guess the point of this is that people have drastically different expectations for teams, and all are bound to be wrong at some point. While one can try to examine how ceertain teams match up, I don't think anyone can develop a conclusive strength of schedule rating in the preseason. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to speculate, though.

 

[ELYEAH82]

I think in regards to div it has a role. When someone has a first place schedule vs a 3rd or 4th it can make the difference. That is 2 games vs the best team from the previous season vs 2 against the 3rd or 4th best team. It doesnt always pan out but the majority of times it is a tougher road.

 

[MW49ers5]

Last Year the Bucs were predicted by Peter King to go 2-14, saying there schedule was brutal... And if the Bucs played the 2009 version of these team then Ya, it would have been brutal.

2010 Bucs schedule and the record of the teams in 2009 then in 2010
Cleveland - 5-11 -- 5-11 (0)
At Carolina - 8-8 -- 1-15 (-7)
Pittsburgh - 9-7 -- 12-4 (+3)
At Cincinnati - 10-6 -- 4-12 (-6)
New Orleans - 13-3 -- 11-5 (-2)
St. Louis - 1-15 -- 7-9 (+6)
At Arizona - 10-6 -- 6-10 (-4)
Carolina - 8-8 -- 1-15 (-7)
At San Fransisco - 8-8 -- 6-10 (-2)
At Baltimore - 9-7 -- 12-4 (+3)
Atlanta - 9-7 -- 13-3 (+4)
At Washington - 4-12 -- 6-10 (+2)
Detroit - 2-14 -- 6-10 (+4)
Seattle - 5-11 -- 7-9 (+2)
At New Orleans - 13-3 -- 11-5 (-2)

So lets look and see if the Bucs are REALLY playing a Tougher schedule. The 2011 Bucs schedule with the teams record in 2010

Detroit - 6-10
At Minnesota - 6-10
Atlanta - 13-3
Indianapolis - 10-6
At San Fransisco - 6-10
New Orleans - 11-5
Chicago - 11-5
At New Orleans - 11-5
Houston - 6-10
At Green Bay - 10-6
At Tennessee - 6-10
Carolina - 1-15
At Jacksonville - 8-8
Dallas - 6-10
At Carolina - 1-15
At Atlanta - 13-3

One can easily say
Jacksonville
Chicago
Tennessee
Minnesota
San Fransisco
will be worse this year than last.(4 of the 5 on the road, and the other in London)

Houston
Green Bay
New Orleans
Detroit
Dallas
will all be better record wise this year (4 of the 6 at home)

Teams with new coaches
Minnesota
San Fransisco
Tennessee
Carolina x2
Dallas
6 games

Teams that might start Rookie QBs
Minnesota
San Fransisco
Tennessee
Carolina x2
Jacksonville
6 games

I see the Bucs beating Minnesota, SF, Carolina x2, Jacksonville, and Tennessee without too much trouble. That leaves 10 games in which the Bucs could lose. If they go 5-5 they are 11-5. A better record vs a Tougher Schedule? NO, just a better record.

Man I wish I could argue with you on the SF predictions - But, I can't

 

[WestEndVol]

I think the Titans will be better than last season but of course, that's just my unbiased opinion.

 

[USCDoom]

Man I wish I could argue with you on the SF predictions - But, I can't

One of my best friends is a Niner fan, and I thought they would be better this year simply because of harbaugh but unless you guys can score 30 points a game I think it will be a long season for you guys. I have no idea what you guys plan on Defense is. I know the OLine looked horrible but the Saints DLine could be the best in the League so...

 

[USCDoom]

Every team I said might be worse, might be better. Every team I think will be better might be worse. The point is saying a team has a Tough Schedule is complete BS until after the games are played.

 

[USCDoom]

How can you easily say the Bears wll be worse this year than last year? Last year, this defense was adjusting to being lead by someone other than Lovie Smith for the first time since 2006 (technically, Bob Babich was our DC in 07 & 08 , but everyone acknowledges he was nothing but Lovie's bitch). The defense had a pretty good year, but they were not anywhere near the level that they were in the last two years under Rivera. Quite honestly, this team has more talent than the 2006 team, and if the O-Line can hold their own, I expect an 11-5 season or better with a harder schedule than last year.

Truthfully? Because I think the Bears will be at 2-8 after 10 games...

 

[MW49ers5]

One of my best friends is a Niner fan, and I thought they would be better this year simply because of harbaugh but unless you guys can score 30 points a game I think it will be a long season for you guys. I have no idea what you guys plan on Defense is. I know the OLine looked horrible but the Saints DLine could be the best in the League so...

If we could just play 7-on-7 - no passing, we would have a shot. I agree the Saints front seven is among the best, but it doesn't help when your o'line is given 'em directions to the QB.

As far as our plan, right now I just hope we plan to play better than we did this past Friday.

 

[Smart]

Truthfully? Because I think the Bears will be at 2-8 after 10 games...

Absolutely. I understand it is hard for a non-Bears fan to see a lot of the Bears, but as somebody who watches them week in and week out, the players have been talented enough to win the Super Bowl since 2005. The problem is that Lovie Smith and Bob Babich ran this terrible prevent in the fourth quarter of games that led to us blowing leads all the time. He also is just a bad in-game coach, making bad challenges, bad halftime adjustments, and calling bad defensive plays.

Last year, for the first time since 2006, somebody besides Lovie had control of the defense. The results were pretty obvious. There weren't near as many blown plays, we had a cohesive intelligent defense, and they defense always had their head up. Outsiders can say this is a fluke or an anomaly, but I am pretty sure it isn't. I saw way too many mistakes caused by terrible DC calls (in total, I think Lovie cost us 13 games between 07-09). I don't think we will lose these games anymore.

I have the Bears going 11-5, with losses vs. Atlanta, vs. San Diego, @ Green Bay, and two other losses along the way. People can bookmark this if they want, but I feel as good going into this season as any season since 2006.

 

[flaraider]

Every team I said might be worse, might be better. Every team I think will be better might be worse. The point is saying a team has a Tough Schedule is complete BS until after the games are played.

I think for the most part since 50% of a teams play is within division, strength of schedule really comes down to strength of division, i.e. if you are in the NFC west it would be difficult to have a "tough" schedule, likewise if you are the Steelers, who get 2 games apiece with the Bengals and Browns, that takes the edge off any "tough" schedule. Of course, your standing in your division will adjust the curve, the 'Skins for example have a tough schedule, division wise, regardless of the outside of division. Carolina gets that honor in the NFC south. Buffalo really gets the worst of it in the AFC east. Outside of the division, it really is subjective, which I agree with you wholeheartedly.

 

[DChero]

Absolutely. I understand it is hard for a non-Bears fan to see a lot of the Bears, but as somebody who watches them week in and week out, the players have been talented enough to win the Super Bowl since 2005. The problem is that Lovie Smith and Bob Babich ran this terrible prevent in the fourth quarter of games that led to us blowing leads all the time. He also is just a bad in-game coach, making bad challenges, bad halftime adjustments, and calling bad defensive plays.

I feel your pain.

Sincerely,

The City of Pittsburgh

 

[USCDoom]

I think for the most part since 50% of a teams play is within division, strength of schedule really comes down to strength of division, i.e. if you are in the NFC west it would be difficult to have a "tough" schedule, likewise if you are the Steelers, who get 2 games apiece with the Bengals and Browns, that takes the edge off any "tough" schedule. Of course, your standing in your division will adjust the curve, the 'Skins for example have a tough schedule, division wise, regardless of the outside of division. Carolina gets that honor in the NFC south. Buffalo really gets the worst of it in the AFC east. Outside of the division, it really is subjective, which I agree with you wholeheartedly.

I gotta disagree for the most part.
The Raiders last year went 6-0 in Division and 2-8 outside of Division. Their Division schedule was obviously Much easier than their Out of Division schedule. But they played a tough schedule not an easy one, even though the AFC West sucked.

Now I wont even attempted to defend the NFC West they had a horrible division and schedules...