Best, worst CFB title value bets - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

USC among best value bets for CFB title - College Football - Travis Haney Blog - ESPN
by Travis Haney

College football futures are starting to appear here and there, and most everyone agrees that Ohio State, the reigning champs who did not lose an underclassman to the draft, is the overwhelming favorite.

But even if the Buckeyes are favored to win the 2016 title, that doesn't make them the best bet to do so. Below are some good and bad futures bets, based on the early odds. Thanks to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for the numbers.

Bad buys

Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

This feels almost like a default setting from Vegas. It's zombie thinking. Must. Make. Alabama. A. Favorite.

We're two years removed from Alabama's most recent national title, and the team has as many positional questions as we've seen since Nick Saban's first couple of seasons. For one, who the heck is going to play receiver? And there will be another new quarterback, possibly one who hasn't yet thrown a live pass.

Respect for Saban is the central reason the odds remain low, really lower than they should be. An offshoot of that is how he recruits. Even if there is turnover, and there is in 2015, Saban is still replacing talent with talent.

Alabama was still part of the initial playoff in 2014, despite it being a "down" year for the program.

Something between 10- to 15-1 feels more comfortable. Putting the Tide in the single digits suggests a reliance on reputation of the coach and program.

TCU Horned Frogs (8-1)

The Frogs, who have the third-lowest odds behind the Buckeyes and Tide, are getting a lot of love nationally. That includes Vegas, evidently. Having visited with him in the spring, coach Gary Patterson feels good about this team, too. In fact, Patterson said he feels better right now than he did at this point last year with the group that ultimately went 12-1 and just missed the playoff. An offense that returns nearly everyone, including what Patterson says is potentially the best O-line he's ever had, is a major reason why.

There are, however, a number of losses on the defensive side of the ball, including productive linebacker Paul Dawson. Additionally, longtime coordinator and Patterson confidant Dick Bumpas retired; that's sure to leave something of a void. Plus, the Frogs -- and especially Trevone Boykin, a revelation at quarterback a year ago -- were able to sneak up on the league last year; not so much in 2015. Backing up a 12-win season with the burden of great expectation, TCU becomes a stock to sell at 8-1. Somewhere between 12-1 and Baylor's 18-1 and you'd have something to consider.

Oregon Ducks (20-1)

The Ducks don't have Marcus Mariota any longer, in case you hadn't heard. It's absolutely fair to wonder just how much Mariota made the Ducks' engine go, especially once Chip Kelly left for the NFL. If Mark Helfrich really is another seamless coaching transition, just as Kelly was -- and Mike Bellotti before Kelly -- then we're about to find out, whether it's Jeff Lockie or transfer Vernon Adams starting at QB.

To be clear, Oregon showed it could win -- and win pretty big -- before it had a Heisman-winning quarterback. (Darron Thomas was not a game-changer, really.) But that has yet to be proved in Helfrich's time. Twenty-to-one is too much faith in the unknown, especially given the overall difficulty of the league. You know Stanford isn't going to stay down long.

Clemson Tigers (20-1)

The Tigers really might be the worst value on the board. The best thing Clemson has going is being in the ACC and South Carolina's no longer being at that 11-win plateau it once enjoyed.

Hurting the Tigers:

• The team's best player, QB Deshaun Watson, is a vision, but he's returning from ACL surgery in December. Magical as he can be, he has yet to prove he can stay healthy. He had three major injuries during his freshman year.
  
  
• The playcaller who brought the offense into this millennium, Chad Morris, is now the coach at SMU. A number of rival coaches were surprised when Clemson promoted from within to fill the spot. "They could have hired just about anyone," one said.
  
  
• The strength of last season's team was a highly experienced defense, especially up front. Some good pieces such as corner Mackensie Alexander remain, but players such as linebacker Vic Beasley and tackle Grady Jarrett were heart-and-soul-type guys. Frankly, 20-1 doesn't make much sense; it would be a good number on Clemson's odds for making the four-team playoff, not winning it.
  

Georgia Bulldogs (25-1)

On the surface, 25-1 is pretty strong for a team that figures to be a favorite in a weak division -- and perhaps even a heavy division favorite.

But encounters with grumpy Georgia fans suggest to me there is no discernible reason to believe Mark Richt will ever break through to the CFP pantheon. If SEC supremacy hasn't happened by now -- and especially if it didn't happen when the Bulldogs needed a mere 5 yards in 2012 -- it ain't happening at all.

Borrowing from Chubbs, of "Happy Gilmore," if you can't beat the clown (Missouri), how are you ever going to beat Shooter McGavin (Saban)?

Georgia appears to be loaded, especially relative to the SEC East, and fellow coaches think a lot of Jeremy Pruitt as a defensive coordinator. But Brian Schottenheimer is a total wild-card offensive coordinator coming from the NFL, and there's that whole hump that Richt cannot seem to crest.

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

Good buys

USC Trojans (15-1)

Admittedly this is a terrifying selection. USC is a far too trendy a playoff pick among national media. The thing is, with the Trojans at 15-1, Vegas isn't really reflecting that momentum all that much.

The Trojans return as steady a quarterback (Cody Kessler) as anyone in the country, and he's surrounded by a litany of weapons on offense. It's the first time since 2011 that USC has been able to sign a full recruiting class, and -- JuJu Smith and Adoree Jackson among them -- it was able to play a number of talented signees a year ago. The Pac-12 South is brutally difficult (you'll see another team from the division momentarily), but the Trojans are stacked with talent and a balance of experience and youth. USC is a formidable team on paper. If Steve Sarkisian and his staff can have a breakout year as developers and coaches (and that's the rub here), then 15-1 is very, very reasonable. The talent alone makes that a good price.

Michigan State Spartans (25-1)

Ohio State might be the front-runner in Vegas, but the heavy favorite often does not win a title. It's a long way between August and January, let alone early June and the title game.

All that is to say the Spartans have an experienced quarterback (Connor Cook) and, for the fourth or fifth consecutive year, a daunting front seven. There are questions on the back end, and there's the fact that esteemed defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi has moved on, but Michigan State isn't being given nearly enough credit for what it's done. The ESPN Stats & Info computers typically diminish the Spartans; so does Vegas in this case. They should be 15- or 18-1.

Mark Dantonio's the kind of guy who can leverage a chip on his team's shoulder. He did it two years ago, in fact, when MSU ended Ohio State's title hopes. It could easily happen again.

LSU Tigers (28-1)

Local expectations will always, always, always be high for LSU football. Nationally, though, is there really all that much expected from the Tigers, who sit third among SEC West teams' odds?

Quarterback is a big topic of conversation when it comes to LSU, but when has LSU enjoyed prodigious talent at the position? It's a collective effort for the Tigers, typically, and there's plenty of talent all over the field, including All-America candidates at running back (Leonard Fournette) and safety (Jamal Adams).

Les Miles has got everyone right where he wants them: talking about Bama and Auburn. With 43 ESPN 300 recruits signed from 2013-15, the roster is simply too loaded for LSU's odds to be in the upper 20s.

Texas A&M Aggies (75-1)

To be clear, it's highly unlikely that a team outside the 30-1 range will actually win the national title. A&M at 75-1, however, is an incredible value. The Aggies have far too much talent to be below teams such as Florida (60-1), Texas (60-1), Mississippi State (60-1) and deadlocked with programs from yesteryear such as Tennessee and Miami.

Defense has been the biggest obstacle in sustaining any momentum in Kevin Sumlin's time in College Station. Veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis will be a stabilizing factor, given 20-plus years in the SEC.

The staff has a lot of confidence in QB Kyle Allen's ability, especially given the late-season experience he earned as a freshman. Even in the sport's deepest division, 75-1 isn't nearly as much credit as the Ags merit.

Arizona Wildcats (100-1)

What am I missing? Arizona won the Pac-12 South and went to a New Year's Six game last season with a freshman, Anu Solomon, playing QB and a number of young, talented players at the skill positions.

On defense, linebacker Scooby Wright III is a dark horse Heisman contender. The Wildcats return seven starters on offense, five on defense and they're well-coached. The Pac-12 South is again loaded, including the previously listed USC, but it shouldn't be any more of a stringent path than a year ago.

Something between 50- and 60-1 feels about right for Zona, which says this is a strong bargain among the long shots.

 

[4down20]

Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

This feels almost like a default setting from Vegas. It's zombie thinking. Must. Make. Alabama. A. Favorite.

We're two years removed from Alabama's most recent national title, and the team has as many positional questions as we've seen since Nick Saban's first couple of seasons. For one, who the heck is going to play receiver? And there will be another new quarterback, possibly one who hasn't yet thrown a live pass.

Respect for Saban is the central reason the odds remain low, really lower than they should be. An offshoot of that is how he recruits. Even if there is turnover, and there is in 2015, Saban is still replacing talent with talent.

Alabama was still part of the initial playoff in 2014, despite it being a "down" year for the program.

Something between 10- to 15-1 feels more comfortable. Putting the Tide in the single digits suggests a reliance on reputation of the coach and program.

Well, I have no idea on value buys or whatever and don't really care too much how they rate it. But his reasons why are easily answered if he took the time to look rather than waiting for ESPN to spoon feed it.

As for our WR's, our entire WR corp as a whole should be improved over last year. We lost Cooper obviously and can't replace him, but we have been stocking up on WR talent the past few years and most Alabama fans are relieved to see the new faces you'll see next year. No offense to White and Jones, they played well for Alabama for years, but I am ready to see what these superstars behind them have to offer.

And when it comes to QB, while Blake Sims was a hard worker who played with a ton of heart and as well loved, the fact of the matter is talent wise, he was probably the least talented QB we've had in the past 10+ years. Our previous QB's at least made NFL rosters as backups. Blake sadly got cut 9 days after joining the CFL.

So it's basically extremely unlikely that we are going to be worse at QB this year. Btw, 2 of the 3 championships Alabama has won came with QB's in their 1st year.

The real questions for Alabama are:

Is our OL going to be a good unit? Since 2012 our OLine has declined. We've had some talented guys, but we keep losing 2 or 3 every year. Last year we started a true freshman at LT and he was really good for us, and we return our center. But we lost a few other lineman. We expect them to be improved, but it's really the biggest concern offensively.

How will the secondary be? Our CB's have been weaker than normal last few years. Lost a few guys getting kicked off the team, injuries, draft, etc. Our best CB was a converted WR and he will likely start. We have 2 5 star CB's that are coming in their 2nd year, and 1 of them will likely be a full time starter this year, so there is potential for improvement, but we haven't seen it yet.

Because we also have to replace our safeties and that's where the other CB's from last year are likely ending up. So, while it looks like talent wise we should be better at the corners, we are lacking the big stud safety we've had in years past like HaHa and Collins. Free safety last year was not a strong position either.

And of course, how much heart the team has. Winning so much makes kids think it comes automatically and they don't work as hard as they should when they need to.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

The Trojans return as steady a quarterback (Cody Kessler) as anyone in the country, and he's surrounded by a litany of weapons on offense. It's the first time since 2011 that USC has been able to sign a full recruiting class, and -- JuJu Smith and Adoree Jackson among them -- it was able to play a number of talented signees a year ago. The Pac-12 South is brutally difficult (you'll see another team from the division momentarily), but the Trojans are stacked with talent and a balance of experience and youth. USC is a formidable team on paper. If Steve Sarkisian and his staff can have a breakout year as developers and coaches (and that's the rub here), then 15-1 is very, very reasonable. The talent alone makes that a good price.
isn't this basically the same shit i already told @MAIZEandBLUE09

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

The Trojans return as steady a quarterback (Cody Kessler) as anyone in the country, and he's surrounded by a litany of weapons on offense. It's the first time since 2011 that USC has been able to sign a full recruiting class, and -- JuJu Smith and Adoree Jackson among them -- it was able to play a number of talented signees a year ago. The Pac-12 South is brutally difficult (you'll see another team from the division momentarily), but the Trojans are stacked with talent and a balance of experience and youth. USC is a formidable team on paper. If Steve Sarkisian and his staff can have a breakout year as developers and coaches (and that's the rub here), then 15-1 is very, very reasonable. The talent alone makes that a good price.
isn't this basically the same shit i already told @MAIZEandBLUE09

Like I said......

 

[Voltaire26]

Michigan at 40-1 odds seems like a bad bet. I would take them though because I am a homer.

College Football Championship Futures | Odds Shark

 

[TheRobotDevil]

Like I said......

Hush I'm still looking for the part where Michigan is in the same level as USC. It seems to be missing. Then again Michigan is missing altogether

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Hush I'm still looking for the part where Michigan is in the same level as USC. It seems to be missing. Then again Michigan is missing altogether

You'll see when all that talent goes to waste because you don't have a coach capable of coaching it.

 

[tducey]

michigan should have better odds than 40-1.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

You'll see when all that talent goes to waste because you don't have a coach capable of coaching it.

I thought Michigan was just as relevant as USC I'm not seeing them in USC's league yet. Deflect all you want Sark > Harbs.Sark is putting up numbers and pulling to recruits. Harbs is putting up jobs and other violations and you haven't even touched the locker room disention and drama he's good for

 

[TheRobotDevil]

michigan should have better odds than 40-1.

40-1 was generous. Odds are they lose to Utah , very high they lose to OSU and MSU . Michigan is a 5-6 win team at best

 

[TDs3nOut]

Well, I have no idea on value buys or whatever and don't really care too much how they rate it.

Mere folly to discuss good and bad value buys. In the end, there is only good value buy. All of the others are bad value buys, regardless of the odds, though longer odds are obviously preferred by those who pick that one good value buy.