Best upset pick this week?

[TDs3nOut]

There are five teams this week that are at least 6-point underdogs according to the VI-Consensus line posted here:http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ . These five teams are Cleveland +6 at Cincinnati, Oakland +7 at Houston, Jacksonville +8 v. AZ, KC+8 at Denver, and MN+12 at Seattle. Which of these underdogs do you think is most likely to cover the spread? Will any of them win straight up?

Personally, and I hate to say it, since I'm a Denver fan, KC looks to me like the team most likely to cover, though I don't think that they win straight up.

 

[cdumler7]

The team I could see winning straight up would maybe be Cleveland over Cincinnati. The Bengals have been struggling lately with some key injuries and the Browns have very little to lose considering nobody expected much from them this season.

Oakland at Houston is the other that I could see since Houston as well has suffered some major injuries and lost some heart breakers lately.

 

[TDs3nOut]

The team I could see winning straight up would maybe be Cleveland over Cincinnati. The Bengals have been struggling lately with some key injuries and the Browns have very little to lose considering nobody expected much from them this season.

Oakland at Houston is the other that I could see since Houston as well has suffered some major injuries and lost some heart breakers lately.

I know that Gino Atkins is finished for the year. Any other key injuries for them?

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Isn't KC getting like 8 points? I could also see that being the sexy upset pick that winds up blowing up on everybody.

 

[cdumler7]

I know that Gino Atkins is finished for the year. Any other key injuries for them?

Giovanni Bennard has been limited lately because of a rib injury. Burfict has a knee injury and concussion. Maualuga has a sprained MCL and hasn't been practicing. A couple of other players along the DL have been banged up recently as well.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Isn't KC getting like 8 points? I could also see that being the sexy upset pick that winds up blowing up on everybody.

LOL Did you read the OP? Yeah, that's one of the five games listed. Also the one that looks to me like the most likely to cover. I think Denver will win, but that it is a larger spread than I would have figured.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Giovanni Bennard has been limited lately because of a rib injury. Burfict has a knee injury and concussion. Maualuga has a sprained MCL and hasn't been practicing. A couple of other players along the DL have been banged up recently as well.

Okay, thanks. Just found this and see that Mauluga hasn't practiced this week.

Injury Reports

 

[cdumler7]

LOL Did you read the OP? Yeah, that's one of the five games listed. Also the one that looks to me like the most likely to cover. I think Denver will win, but that it is a larger spread than I would have figured.

Not sure why you are so surprised by this spread. The Broncos are at home. Defensively over the last 3 games since Von Miller returned the Broncos defense has actually played just as well as the Chiefs defense. Vegas realizes to get people to bet for the Chiefs because so many are still questioning how good they are they realize they have to put the bet at that 8 point mark. Let's say they do the usual 3 point advantage to the Broncos for them being home. Are many people going to take that bet? Probably not so to increase betting they lower the number and 8 seems to be the point more feel comfortable picking the Chiefs over the Broncos.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Not sure why you are so surprised by this spread. The Broncos are at home. Defensively over the last 3 games since Von Miller returned the Broncos defense has actually played just as well as the Chiefs defense. Vegas realizes to get people to bet for the Chiefs because so many are still questioning how good they are they realize they have to put the bet at that 8 point mark. Let's say they do the usual 3 point advantage to the Broncos for them being home. Are many people going to take that bet? Probably not so to increase betting they lower the number and 8 seems to be the point more feel comfortable picking the Chiefs over the Broncos.

I understand how the spread works. I guess I just respect the KC defense more than the bookmakers seem to. I'm very concerned about our o-line's ability to handle the KC pass rush, particularly the way that Clark has been struggling and with PM's ankle. Hopefully we win easily. We definitely are capable of doing so, but I'm not just counting on it.

 

[broncosmitty]

Isn't KC getting like 8 points? I could also see that being the sexy upset pick that winds up blowing up on everybody.

I saw 9.5 somewhere earlier this week. Should be 4-5 by Sunday I'd imagine.

 

[cdumler7]

I understand how the spread works. I guess I just respect the KC defense more than the bookmakers seem to. I'm very concerned about our o-line's ability to handle the KC pass rush, particularly the way that Clark has been struggling and with PM's ankle. Hopefully we win easily. We definitely are capable of doing so, but I'm not just counting on it.

I understand that but spreads are set to make money not show respect. So far Vegas has little respect for what the Chiefs have done and want to see them prove it and this week would go a long way in doing that if they were to win.

Now you talk about how Clark has been struggling but I think the same could be said of Hali and Houston over the last few games. I think the Chiefs as a team have gotten like 2 sacks in the last 2 games and only 6 sacks in the last 3 games combined so way down from what they were doing earlier in the year. I'm sure Vegas has looked at that as well and seen how the Chiefs defense has looked beatable against mediocre quarterbacks over the last 3 weeks.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I saw 9.5 somewhere earlier this week. Should be 4-5 by Sunday I'd imagine.

The link to the site posted in the OP lists the opening spread at 8.5 and it's now only dropped to 8. I've been thinking it was likely drop further, so perhaps you are right that it will do that, but it seem unlikely to drop to 4-5 between now and Sunday, doesn't it?

 

[Octoberfest23]

I know that Gino Atkins is finished for the year. Any other key injuries for them?

Leon hall out for the year.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

echo CD...CLE...this will likely be a tough, close game...CIN is a little banged up too...if they can't get any heat on Campbell CLE could win out right.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I understand that but spreads are set to make money not show respect. So far Vegas has little respect for what the Chiefs have done and want to see them prove it and this week would go a long way in doing that if they were to win.

Now you talk about how Clark has been struggling but I think the same could be said of Hali and Houston over the last few games. I think the Chiefs as a team have gotten like 2 sacks in the last 2 games and only 6 sacks in the last 3 games combined so way down from what they were doing earlier in the year. I'm sure Vegas has looked at that as well and seen how the Chiefs defense has looked beatable against mediocre quarterbacks over the last 3 weeks.

KC...I've seen in a part almost every gm this season. I think Vegas knows that a lot of KC's success has been off DEF TOs, either scoring themselves or setting up really short fields. Thats great b/c they have been creating those TOs but that can't be counted on in DEN vs a HOF QB.

The OFC is going to have to step up this week, and thus far Smith has been mediocre in the play making dept...at the same time he hasn't contributed to many negative plays either..KC fans don't kill me, just being honest...if Smith doesn't get off to a good start, I can see them losing by 14.

 

[boltfan72]

Cleveland and KC may win outright. With Manning's ankle, his O-line, and KC's pass rush, he may not finish the game.

 

[Southieinnc]

I could see Oakland beating Houston

I also can see KC beating Denver

I can't see digging in the pocket for any cash.....

 

[flaraider]

There are five teams this week that are at least 6-point underdogs according to the VI-Consensus line posted here:http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ . These five teams are Cleveland +6 at Cincinnati, Oakland +7 at Houston, Jacksonville +8 v. AZ, KC+8 at Denver, and MN+12 at Seattle. Which of these underdogs do you think is most likely to cover the spread? Will any of them win straight up?

Personally, and I hate to say it, since I'm a Denver fan, KC looks to me like the team most likely to cover, though I don't think that they win straight up.

Way to go out on the limb without chopping yourself off. Kudos

Raiders could pull one off as well.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

If I were to lay down money, I would bet on the Browns as I think they can straight up beat the Bengals with Campbell. KC is somewhat of an unknown so I am hesitant to bet much on anything KC, but I like what I see.


Well, if KC is going to big a big underdog with PeyPey as the QB, then this gif may be appropriate.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Well, isn't that just a lovely mishap I have there.

"be a big underdog"

not "big a big underdog"