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Bates says he isn't playing on tag

cincygrad

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I think Bates is overplaying his hand. The guy has only played 4 seasons. He was awarded a fairly lucrative (12+ million) franchise tag for his 5th season. That's really a better deal than he would have had if he would have been a first rounder.

If Bates did hold out... He's not really forcing the Bengals hand here. Lots of teams wouldn't have the 12 million sitting around (under the cap) for whenever the player shows up to sign the deal, which normally forces the team to move on. The Bengals aren't that sort of team. They can fine him repeatedly and can still maintain enough cap flexibility to sign him anytime before the final deadline to sign the deal in November. He would then be forced to play half a season at half a salary (minus all the fines).... And half-assing it would hurt his free agency market.

Not sure if it is Bates or his agent, but the dude is not making good decisions with his career. The Bengals used to be interested in locking him up long term. I think that ship sailed.... And now Bates is sabotaging his own career.
 

CrashDavisSports

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I think Bates is overplaying his hand. The guy has only played 4 seasons. He was awarded a fairly lucrative (12+ million) franchise tag for his 5th season. That's really a better deal than he would have had if he would have been a first rounder.

If Bates did hold out... He's not really forcing the Bengals hand here. Lots of teams wouldn't have the 12 million sitting around (under the cap) for whenever the player shows up to sign the deal, which normally forces the team to move on. The Bengals aren't that sort of team. They can fine him repeatedly and can still maintain enough cap flexibility to sign him anytime before the final deadline to sign the deal in November. He would then be forced to play half a season at half a salary (minus all the fines).... And half-assing it would hurt his free agency market.

Not sure if it is Bates or his agent, but the dude is not making good decisions with his career. The Bengals used to be interested in locking him up long term. I think that ship sailed.... And now Bates is sabotaging his own career.
I agree with you. I think the Bengals really want him, just not at the price tag he wants. So we will see who moves. However, Bates wasn't t he one I expected to become the malcontent being the organization rep, and the leader of the defense. I just see us having too much much money upcoming with the Higgins, Wilson, Burrow contracts. I imagine we are not going to mess with Burrow right now until some other contracts start organically falling off the books to prevent cap hits.

I think Bates is gone. Trade him outside the conference though. Dax Hill and Vonn Bell for now. May even consider a contract renewal with Bell.
 

Cincyfan78

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The reality is - Bates is a very good safety...Top 5, for sure. He's not THE best safety and he wants to be paid like it. It's not smart business to pay someone what they are not worth.

I get him not wanting to play under the tag, and that's not unusual for players in this instance, but outside of 1, maybe 2, positions - you really can't afford to miss too many years. The reality is - Bates likely lost more long-term money by not signing an extension last year. Sure, the overall value may not have been as high, but he likely would have seen every year of that contract - that's not a guarantee when signing this mega deals where teams end up re-structuring or flat out cutting players with 1-2 years left.
 

jbuck

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they drafted 2 . pretty strong message
 

CrashDavisSports

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So he has no leverage now. As jbuck said, we drafted 2, including our first round pick. So if he sits out, one he doesn't get paid and he gets fined. Plus, doesn't he also remain under control by the Bengals and if they franchise him again next year after sitting out a year, doesn't it only count as a first year franchise tag again since he never signed it the first time?
 

cincygrad

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So he has no leverage now. As jbuck said, we drafted 2, including our first round pick. So if he sits out, one he doesn't get paid and he gets fined. Plus, doesn't he also remain under control by the Bengals and if they franchise him again next year after sitting out a year, doesn't it only count as a first year franchise tag again since he never signed it the first time?

Not to mention the fact that this isn't Mike Brown's first rodeo....Not Katie Blackburn's either. They were happy to let Carson Palmer rot until the Raiders got crazy and sent a first rounder their way. And that's just the most recent data point.... The Bengals aren't really known to cave into the demands of a player. Not their style.

As @Cincyfan78 said.... He probably cost himself some cash by not taking the extension last offseason. He could have done a 4 year extension and still only been 28 years old after making around 50 million.... Still time for one more deal.
 

Cincyfan78

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Not to mention the fact that this isn't Mike Brown's first rodeo....Not Katie Blackburn's either. They were happy to let Carson Palmer rot until the Raiders got crazy and sent a first rounder their way. And that's just the most recent data point.... The Bengals aren't really known to cave into the demands of a player. Not their style.

As @Cincyfan78 said.... He probably cost himself some cash by not taking the extension last offseason. He could have done a 4 year extension and still only been 28 years old after making around 50 million.... Still time for one more deal.
Yep. Signed last year at 24 and he gets a 4 year deal that puts him in the top 4 or 5 and he likely sees the entire contract - and he's a F/A with 3-4 potential years left - meaning another team will sign him for anywhere from 2-4 years - and he gets another contract.

Now, he holds out - regardless of whether he plays this year, or not, he enters next year at age 26...he gets a 4 year deal and then he's 30 at the end of that deal...that deal is not likely to be as lucrative or push him far into his 30's (unless he is coming off some stellar years).

In the end, though, he really didn't do himself any favors - and even if it had all washed out in the end relatively even - he stressed himself for nearly 2 years over $1M or 2. Highly not worth it.
 

DanBengalfan

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my guess is, perhaps someone will trade for him.

12 million for 1 year is a pretty good deal, signing him for multiple years, I would assume some of that money is guaranteed if he pulls a tendon and can't play, then the bengals are still on the hook to pay him a bunch of money to be the tyler eifert of DBs.

...

if our other safeties get injured, he has more leverage, and we may sign him, but in the future we will be securing a top "Brady/Rodgers salary" for our offensive MVP big Joe, and filling in the other parts more cautiously.
 

Cincyfan78

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my guess is, perhaps someone will trade for him.

12 million for 1 year is a pretty good deal, signing him for multiple years, I would assume some of that money is guaranteed if he pulls a tendon and can't play, then the bengals are still on the hook to pay him a bunch of money to be the tyler eifert of DBs.

...

if our other safeties get injured, he has more leverage, and we may sign him, but in the future we will be securing a top "Brady/Rodgers salary" for our offensive MVP big Joe, and filling in the other parts more cautiously.
The issue isn't with leverage - the Bengals really just can't afford to pay him #1 type safety money when they are going to try hard to re-sign Higgins (IMO) and then have Burrow and Chase right after that.

Also guys like Reader, Pratt, and Wilson are also going to be due along with Awuzie

All of those guys are big cogs on the defense, and all are up right around the same time (F/A in '24) - and you can't replace everyone via draft and suitable replacements may, or may not, be on the F/A market.

So, some of these guys are going to get signed, but they have to be willing to work with the team a bit. Right now, Bates wants to get everything he can. I don't fault him for that, but that forces the Bengals hand in so much that - he'll be under the tag, but he's not getting a long-term deal here any longer without him moving off his demands.
 

cincygrad

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Crickets as we slowly march to the deadline for a deal. I side with the Bengals here. You aren't paying Fitzpatrick type money for Jessie Bates. Reading Twitter, Im surprised by how many of our fans don't get this. I blame the Bengals for promoting Bates so much in 2019 and 2020.... He was a guy that checked all the boxes for marketing purposes and the Bengals began the dialogue that he was one of the best safeties in the league. The truth is that he's in the top 10, but not top 5. And his agent wants top overall money.

I'm hoping Dax Hill is the real deal... But even if he's not, I don't think Bates leaving in FO is going to be the thing that closes our window.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Crickets as we slowly march to the deadline for a deal. I side with the Bengals here. You aren't paying Fitzpatrick type money for Jessie Bates. Reading Twitter, Im surprised by how many of our fans don't get this. I blame the Bengals for promoting Bates so much in 2019 and 2020.... He was a guy that checked all the boxes for marketing purposes and the Bengals began the dialogue that he was one of the best safeties in the league. The truth is that he's in the top 10, but not top 5. And his agent wants top overall money.

I'm hoping Dax Hill is the real deal... But even if he's not, I don't think Bates leaving in FO is going to be the thing that closes our window.
Tag him again next offseason, and trade him for something.
 

cincygrad

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Tag him again next offseason, and trade him for something.
That will be too much money to have on-hold while trying to get Burrow's monster extension and at least one other extension (Higgins or Wilson) done next year. I imagine they'll just let him walk and pick up their 3rd or 4th round comp pick in 2024. His replacement is already in the building.
 

CrashDavisSports

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That will be too much money to have on-hold while trying to get Burrow's monster extension and at least one other extension (Higgins or Wilson) done next year. I imagine they'll just let him walk and pick up their 3rd or 4th round comp pick in 2024. His replacement is already in the building.
As high of level as he is, he would be worth a 3rd round pick unless he just shits the bed this year. In that case, the price tag just got cheaper for us, right? haha
 

Cincyfan78

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I'd have tried to work a trade the minute they landed their 1st round pick....maybe get an extra 3rd in that draft - would have been nice, but regardless...Bates' time is nearing an end. He's a really good, but not game changing, safety. He wants top 2-3 money, and he's just not worth that kind of coin when you have more pressing needs coming due.
 

CrashDavisSports

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I'd have tried to work a trade the minute they landed their 1st round pick....maybe get an extra 3rd in that draft - would have been nice, but regardless...Bates' time is nearing an end. He's a really good, but not game changing, safety. He wants top 2-3 money, and he's just not worth that kind of coin when you have more pressing needs coming due.
This is truly the Burrow effect right here.

Bates is good enough that we would all be upset about potentially losing him back in the day, because when you have good players you want to keep them, especially the type of team we were.

We would be calling the Bengals front office cheap, that they are just shitting on the fans, etc.

Now, that we have a true franchise changing QB, that FA want to come play for us, that we have become a destination, and Duke has started putting together a couple of the best drafts in the history of this franchise the last few years, you start to say, yeah, Bates, he is good, but we can restock...just make sure Burrow and Chase stay together.

The Burrow Effect. It is life changing, or in this case, franchise changing.
 

Cincyfan78

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This is truly the Burrow effect right here.

Bates is good enough that we would all be upset about potentially losing him back in the day, because when you have good players you want to keep them, especially the type of team we were.

We would be calling the Bengals front office cheap, that they are just shitting on the fans, etc.

Now, that we have a true franchise changing QB, that FA want to come play for us, that we have become a destination, and Duke has started putting together a couple of the best drafts in the history of this franchise the last few years, you start to say, yeah, Bates, he is good, but we can restock...just make sure Burrow and Chase stay together.

The Burrow Effect. It is life changing, or in this case, franchise changing.
Bingo.

Bengals are finally in a spot where they can RELOAD instead of REBUILD!
 

cincygrad

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I think the 2021 Bengals formula was to rely on the young stars on offense paired with older FA type players on defense. Most of the big ticket items from a financial perspective were on the defensive side of the ball. It's pretty clear that they are going to have to switch this up over the next 5 years. All the major items will be offensive players - starting with Burrow and Chase. I expect to see them use draft picks over and over again to bolster the D while using FA money to either patch the offense or extend their own guys. Time will tell if they get it right with the draft picks.
 

cincygrad

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Talking heads say that the Bengals offered Bates only 4 million guaranteed above cap. That likely means they offered him around 17 million for a signing bonus and the rest of his deal wasn't guaranteed. Its useful to use the Trey Henrickson and DJ Reader deals as comps.... They only guaranteed Henrickson 16 million for a contract that averages 15 annually. They guaranteed 20 to Reader on a contract that pays 13 average annually..... Both deals had guarantees only for first year cash.

So, while the media focuses on the guarantees, the real question remains, "what was the average annual money?" If it was around 15-17 million on a 5 year deal, it was probably a fair deal.... But in the new NFL all the agents are chasing guarantees - Even though in reality the first 2 or 3 years of any deal will be guaranteed for practical purposes.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Talking heads say that the Bengals offered Bates only 4 million guaranteed above cap. That likely means they offered him around 17 million for a signing bonus and the rest of his deal wasn't guaranteed. Its useful to use the Trey Henrickson and DJ Reader deals as comps.... They only guaranteed Henrickson 16 million for a contract that averages 15 annually. They guaranteed 20 to Reader on a contract that pays 13 average annually..... Both deals had guarantees only for first year cash.

So, while the media focuses on the guarantees, the real question remains, "what was the average annual money?" If it was around 15-17 million on a 5 year deal, it was probably a fair deal.... But in the new NFL all the agents are chasing guarantees - Even though in reality the first 2 or 3 years of any deal will be guaranteed for practical purposes.
If the Bengals offer a contract to a player, they basically pay that said player the whole contract. Rarely do you see a player sign a big deal with Cincinnati and not see the end of it. You would basically have to die or become one of the most dysfunctional players in the league to get cut by the Bengals once they make a contract.

Katie even said, guarantees mean nothing to the Bengals because as long as you are working hard and trying to be the player that earned that contract, you will see every penny. So to say guarantee, all it does is tie up all their working capital into an account that neither the team, nor the player can touch until those time based payouts occur.

For a small market like Cincinnati, tying up $100 million dollars of income into an account for a few players you can't touch or make money off of, hurts. If you are a massive market that has billions at your disposal, then that means nothing, because the salary cap is so much lower than your actual income, because cap is based off tv revenue only.
 
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