Bailey

[JohnU]

I guess this settles the early question about auditioning for the fifth starter role. Conveniently, Bailey will be on the DL for the first couple of starts.

Price on Bailey: Unlikely ready by opener, but April return possible
-- CBSSports.com
Reds starting pitcher Homer Bailey, who is coming off September elbow surgery, hasn't had any setbacks and is progressing well, according to manager Bryan Price. Bailey is slated to throw a bullpen soon, but it appears he will begin the season on the disabled list, per the Cincinnati Enquirer.

“I don’t if it’s going to opening day, but I don’t imagine we’re going to talking May either," Price said when asked when Bailey will be ready.

Bailey also indicated Tuesday he is expecting to be pitching for the Reds in April.

"I don't know, nobody knows," he said, per FOX Sports. "But I can say it is not like it is going to be June or even late May. We have every confidence in the world that it will be sometime in April. That's the best we can do, I think."

Bailey was limited to 23 starts in 2014, which was the first time in three seasons he had less than 10 wins. He finished 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA. The right-hander, who has thrown two no-hitters, is 33-27 with a 3.61 ERA over the last three seasons.

 

[Redsfan1507]

That means an expansion team rotation for a month. Lets hope Bailey fares better than Kremcheck's last 3 victims, and still looks like the $100 M pitcher they signed when he does get back.

 

[JohnU]

Yeah, it's hard to believe that Mike Leake is now the No. 2 guy in the rotation. If Cueto goes down -- and he has shown that it's possible -- then Sarah Palin really is on the roster.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Remember the Steve Carlton era Phillies ? One year, they won like 65 games and he won like 27 of them...Poor Mario Soto's Big Dead Machine. With an extension of the Reds injury bug, this could be one of those kinds of years.

Pre-ST, I'm still of the hope Votto, Bruce, Bailey come back more normal, Frazier, Mesoraco and Byrd do about what they did last year, and one of the rotation stiffs do an Alfredo Simon impersonation, and one of the young studs is the next Cueto. I'd like to see BP hit better in the 7 hole, than hit 13 HR as a 4 HOLE hitter... emphasis on the HOLE and not so much on the hitter...if all that happens, and Wainwright has a gimpy belly, Yadier starts missing more games, the Reds might make it interesting.

That's possible, right ?

 

[JohnU]

Waino can go down, the Cardinals will find another 22-year-old kid named Cy Young.
If Yadi goes down, they will trade one of their other 22-year-old Cy Youngs for a catcher until he gets back.
They are the only team that could, within a month, obtain a potential all-star right fielder to replace the rookie who died in a car wreck.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Amazing isn't it ? They let a whole group of studs go- Pujols, Beltran, Carpenter, LaRussa, Duncan, and didnt miss a beat. Even their plug ins work for a while, then they ditch them just as they expire. They've had a handful of middle infielders and bullpenners. They lose a SP and bring in 2 more. They replaced Ludwick with Holliday. Beltran with Bourgois and Jay and then Taveras, then get Heyward. They've always got more young arms than failures in the pitching staff. They somehow made Peralta look like a smart move at SS. Wong may be the next answer at 2b. They got Craig and moved him at the right times. Adams is a pretty impressive 3rd option for saving a quarter Billion on Pujols. The dugout staff rotates with the same old post season ticket maker pumping non stop.

They're a pretty good model for sustained competitiveness, I'd say. Bastards.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'm not sold that the Cards are going to hoist the NL-C crown this year. They won the division last year with 90 wins. But if you factor in the collapsing Brewers and Reds 2nd halves, the Cubs being the Cubs, (although the Cubbies play the Cards tough) and it looks more like they won in a down division year. I think they only scored around 20 more runs than they surrendered.

Wainwright, Lackey aren't getting any younger. Wacha didn't pitch a complete year and the 4-5 guys aren't locks. Molina isn't old, but catching tends to add a few years and Holiday isn't a spring chicken either. They don't have great power or speed and the team BA was around .250. I'd say they were lucky to win 90 and if the Central is truly stronger this year they might not get there this season.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I forgot Lance Lynn in the rotation, but nonetheless I think as a team they may be trending the wrong way.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

On the topic of Bailey, I think physically Homer is everything you'd want in a SP. He's showed the dominance he can exert with two no-hitters and impressive playoff appearances. But his overall regular season performance make him a under achiever. His regular season numbers really aren't any better than Mike Leake's when you get right down to it. If this team is going to contend, Homer needs to pitch like $100M dollars.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't think the NLC got better, it just got closer-primarily because the Cubs got a little better. I think the Cardinals are good for 90 wins again, and there isn't another NLC team that can win more than about 85-86. I think it is probable the Reds offense is better than last year, but I don't believe replacing Latos and Simon with whoever gets their spots, improves the team's net win total that much, and that assumes Bailey returns healthy early, and everyone else on the pitching staff is too. There is zero margin for disappointment among core players this year, if they want to stay above .500, IMO.

 

[JohnU]

I suppose the discussion comes back to WAR or, for me, whether a team on the field on any given day has more WAR than the other guy does. Part of that is whether the Reds can prove they can score more runs early in the game to let these starting pitchers get through a bad inning. But what happened a year ago with guys like Leake and Bailey was, they would get 3 runs and turn around and give them right back.